Thai household debt levels to rise even further - central bank governor

 

FILE PHOTO: Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput speaks during his first briefing on the economy and monetary policy after taking office in Bangkok, Thailand October 20, 2020. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's household debt levels, already at the highest in 17 years, are expected to rise further, the central bank governor said on Thursday, as the coronavirus pandemic hammers its trade-and tourism-reliant economy.

 

Southeast Asia's second's largest economy suffered its biggest contraction in 22 years in the second quarter and could shrink a record 7.8% this year, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has forecast.

 

"The pandemic had cut jobs, reducing households' income and debt servicing ability," Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput told reporters.

 

"The employment situation has not yet returned to normal," he said, noting the economy would not get back to pre-COVID levels until the third quarter of 2022.

 

As of June, household debt rose to 13.59 trillion baht ($435 billion), equal to 83.8% of GDP, the highest since 2003 and among the highest levels in Asia.

 

The debt was at 79.9% of GDP at the end of 2019.

 

The Federation of Thai Industries has estimated job losses at a record 2.5 to 3 million this year, of which more than a million are in the tourist sector. Thailand has a workforce of about 38 million.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-10-22

 

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Covid triggers jump in Thai household debt

By The Nation

 

 

The Covid-19 crisis has driven up household debt as job losses and falling income weaken the ability to make payments, new Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said on Thursday.

 

Thailand’s household debt jumped this year from 80 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter to 83.8 per cent in the second quarter.

 

“Falling income caused by the virus impact has contributed to a rise in household debt,” Sethaput said.

 

He explained that although Thailand’s unemployment rate is relatively low, many workers had moved from higher-paying jobs in manufacturing, services and tourism, into agriculture. Many are also working fewer hours. 

 

According to a BOT study, the same debtors account for 80 per cent of Thailand’s household debt over the past nine years. One in five pensioners is in debt, with those aged 61-65 owing an average Bt100,000.

 

More younger people are also entering the borrowing cycle, with 50 per cent of those aged 30-40 now in debt, mostly via personal loans and credit cards.

 

Looking forward, household debt will continue to rise for the next two years, with the economy projected to recover to pre-Covid levels in the third quarter of 2022, he warned.

 

The central bank would launch more measures to deal with long-term problems, Sethaput said, without revealing any details.

 

The BOT has urged banks to continue providing support for companies and individuals struggling with debt when its current measures, including debt-payment suspension, end this month.  

 

The central bank is also keeping a close eye on debt restructuring, added Sethaput.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30396624

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-10-23

 

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Finally someone speaking the truth. A rarity it seems in the government.

30 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Finally someone speaking the truth. A rarity it seems in the government.

No truth was spoken for I saw his lips moving!

Will get worse for sure.  NPL will jump.  Repossessions will jump.  Sadly suicides will also jump.  ????

Look what it says - the economy is not projected to bounce back till the third quarter 2022.  Yes, that's when travel may get back to normal.  

What's the date right now?  

We have only just begun.  2021 could easily be a complete write-off too.  

But....but....the billion baht stimulus packages, where did they go? Nevermind, just keep borrowing and spending! 

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Covid triggers jump in Thai household debt

By The Nation

 

 

He explained that although Thailand’s unemployment rate is relatively low, many workers had moved from higher-paying jobs in manufacturing, services and tourism, into agriculture. Many are also working fewer hours. 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30396624

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-10-23

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

I thought the government didn't keep unemployment figures.  Occasionally the employment rate is said to be in the high 90% range yet there is no data to back this up.

 

If the 'government' opened up a scheme for unemployment payments there would be registrations of higher than 50% of the potential workforce.  Yet such a scheme has never been implemented.  No 'government' would admit to such a huge unemployment rate.

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The central bank is also keeping a close eye on debt restructuring, added Sethaput.

In other words looking at the amount of Loans entering " Special Mention Loans " that have a very real, and high , potential to turn into NPL Loans very quickly.

This story, issue, whatever you call it, will only get bigger and bigger.

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Southeast Asia's second's largest economy suffered its biggest contraction in 22 years in the second quarter and could shrink a record 7.8% this year, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has forecast.

Yet the baht strength seems to be holding on.

That really shouldn't surprise anyone. Many "middle class" employees have multiple credit cards whose combined credit limit was already maxed out and could barely be serviced long before the pandemic. Lose your job or even just the usual "overtime" and there's no way to service that debt. Add a financed car to the mix and it's even worse.

When there are special days, like today, it is still very busy on the roads to the south.

So, this people 16.2% still have the money to do what they like to do.

6 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Look what it says - the economy is not projected to bounce back till the third quarter 2022.  Yes, that's when travel may get back to normal.  

What's the date right now?  

We have only just begun.  2021 could easily be a complete write-off too.  

I think travel will be back to normal(ish) far before then.  Tourism won’t bounce back immediately but will take time to grow and additional time for the money to circulate throughout the economy.  
 

Of course, everything at this point is just a wild guess at best.

Make every weekend a  4 day holiday weekend. That should simulate the economy with all the people who still have money going nuts and enjoying themselves. 555 

8 hours ago, webfact said:

One in five pensioners is in debt, with those aged 61-65 owing an average Bt100,000.

That's not so much money at all, there must be hundreds of millions of people with this level of debt in Thailand to make up the trillions of Baht owed ????

Hard times coming.  Not only for Thailand, rest of the world is in for a shock as well.

 

 

All we can do is position ourselves to weather the storm best we can.

I haven't transferred money for home for 2 years.....but I am getting low.  I can't wait for LOS to implode so I can transfer money at a better Forex rate.  Can I hang on? 

18 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

I haven't transferred money for home for 2 years.....but I am getting low.  I can't wait for LOS to implode so I can transfer money at a better Forex rate.  Can I hang on? 

Lord Keynes, the father of modern monetary theory, famously said The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. 

If people anywhere on Earth have credit cards maxed out when there is low interest with the banks,

they are crazy.v The low interest rates will not stay this low forever. vvGet your credit cards

torn up and get a bank loan to help that situation. vvThis is the time to be serious to

live within your means.  I am retired and on a pension, so that helps me remember what

my financial situation is.   I can not believe that the working people are not trying to stay

within their financial situation. Credit cards have been around a long time and they still

have high interest rates like 18 to 20 percent.   Do a nano seconds worth of real thinking

and you will understand that,  Now is not the time to be maxed out on your credit cards, 

with the thought that you will just get a few more credit cards to help out.

Geezer

On 10/23/2020 at 6:15 AM, Grumpy John said:

Will get worse for sure.  NPL will jump.  Repossessions will jump.  Sadly suicides will also jump.  ????

As of October 2020 Kasikorn have 70.3 billion baht listed on their repossessed real-estate listing. Let see how that number is looking in 6 months time.

 

1060 units 0-1 million baht

4740 units 1-5 million baht

1730 units 5-10 million baht

1020 units 10-50 million baht

120 units above 50 million baht

 

But housing and property values still high. Thai's will die before lowering their prices.