Are Trump's rallies spreading coronavirus? Why it's hard to know the full impact

By Julie Steenhuysen and Carl O'Donnell

 

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump waves to supporters from the presidential limousine while departing a campaign rally in Newtown, Pennsylvania, U.S., on October 31, 2020. REUTERS/Tom Brenner/File Photo

 

(Reuters) - Stanford University economists estimate that President Donald Trump's campaign rallies have resulted in 30,000 additional confirmed cases of COVID-19, and likely led to more than 700 deaths overall, according to a paper posted online this weekend.

 

The research, led by B. Douglas Bernheim, chair of economics at Stanford University, analyzed data following 18 Trump rallies held between June 20 and Sept. 22, three of which were indoors. Bernheim said in an email the work relies on statistical methods to infer causation after an event has occurred.

 

Infectious disease experts have long suspected that the president's rallies ahead of the Nov. 3 election might be so-called superspreader events. But so far, scientists have not been able to get a good read on their impact, in part because of a lack of robust contact tracing in many states.

      

WHAT IS THE CONCERN?

In recent months, Trump has held several dozen rallies in states such as Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin, where coronavirus infection rates were already on the rise.

 

At each event, several thousand people were estimated to have participated. While most of the rallies were held outdoors, video footage show that participants gathered in close proximity and many were not wearing masks, creating a risk of spreading the virus as they cheered their candidate on.

 

Stanford University economists estimate that President Donald Trump's campaign rallies have resulted in 30,000 additional confirmed cases of COVID-19, and likely led to more than 700 deaths overall, according to a paper posted online this weekend. Lisa Bernhard produced this report.

 

"It's not a major stretch" to say that large unmasked gatherings are likely to spread the virus, said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

 

Adalja said the Stanford paper was "suggestive" of spread from the events, but not definitive because it was not based on an investigation of actual cases. That would help confirm whether participants were exposed to the virus at the event, rather than other places where transmission is rampant.

 

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

Minnesota public health officials have attributed four COVID-19 outbreaks and more than 25 cases to Trump rallies held in the state in September and October.

 

An additional 11 state health departments contacted by Reuters said they had not been able to trace infections to the rallies, although some, including Michigan and Wisconsin, have determined that individual people who later tested positive for COVID-19 were present at Trump campaign events.

    

WHAT DATA ARE NEEDED?

Disease experts say that rigorous contact tracing from one such large event could help arrive at an accurate prediction of how infectious such rallies can be.

 

But the United States has fallen behind other developed countries in this regard, due to a lack of funding and coordination for contact tracing by the Trump administration.

 

"The problem is we've not done anything to get real numbers," said Dr. Eric Topol, a genomics expert and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California. Instead, it is subject to conjecture and mathematical models.  

 

For example, scientists can use gene sequencing to trace minute changes in the genetic code of the virus as it passes from one person to another, allowing them to develop a map of where the virus travels. Such work has been used outside the United States, including in Australia and Hong Kong, to trace COVID-19 outbreaks.

 

"If we even had one rally where there was definitive tracing, then you could extrapolate. But we've had none. Our country has performed as if contact tracing doesn't exist," Topol said.

 

(Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen in Chicago and Carl O'Donnell in New York; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-11-02

 

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Obvious to the dumbest of the dumb. Of course these rallies without the recommended precautions are going to spread the virus.

About to the same degree the Leftists protests spread the Corona-virus.  LOL

24 minutes ago, RoadWarrior371 said:

About to the same degree the Leftists protests spread the Corona-virus.  LOL

The thing is, those weren't rallies arranged at the behest of a Presidential candidate.

And at least the people at them were mostly wearing masks.

14 minutes ago, Thailand said:

Obvious to the dumbest of the dumb. Of course these rallies without the recommended precautions are going to spread the virus.

 

Yet mass demonstrations, gathering on the streets, protests..dont seem to be causing any outbreaks.

I remember the BLM protests in Australia. A government body actually ruled that it was ok for them to protest.

Then they turned around and tried to tell us (on the news) that 2 people got infected because of the protests. lol

For thatv1 time It was actually ok to report hardly any cases, since doing otherwise would have put the blame on the government letting them protest. what a joke.

 

And this is how stupid they think the public is...

to have us believe only 2 people were infected, in a huge gathering, where a spreader was supposedly getting around in the midst of it, all day..

and this is a highly infectious thing. lol

Cmon man!

 

Look at at the gatherings in Bangkok..

-the 100s of Thais lining up for food at charity places.

-the 100s of foreigners lining up at Chaenwattana for visa.

-1000s of Thais who were lining up at Mochit 2 waiting for buses.

-people who were social distancing outside the BTS,  yet going inside the carriage and being packed in like sardines. lol

 

and on it goes, all this..without the disastrous outbreaks happening.

 

While many are saying Thailand is lying about its Covid figures, but clearly there SHOULD of been folks dieing everywhere if Covid was rampant.

 

Yes, USA is another story. But its obviously to far gone now..

IF the figures are to be believed.

They might as well go for herd immunity.

 

Another thing people dont realise..

There is mass panic about these figures..87,000 infected in 1 day..

but 99%+ are gonna get over it in a few days, if have no symptoms at all.

That means the 87k should be forgotten..yet the fear and cowering remains..job done.

 

And at the same time as all this supposed 2nd wave places, we know the actual death rates are falling just about everywhere.

 

It really is time a lot of us wake up me thinks

 

Obviously trump is spreading the virus that’s a no brainer what I find unbelievable is the man sworn to protect the American people is knowingly spreading this deadly virus that’s in my book a disgrace and he’s derelict in the oath of office 

its clear to anyone but a holocaust denier / flat eartherner / [insert name calling]

that while BLM and other mostly peaceful protesters

do not spread virus and cause death and destruction,

Trump believers certainly do

4 minutes ago, scammed said:

its clear to anyone but a holocaust denier / flat eartherner / [insert name calling]

that while BLM and other mostly peaceful protesters

do not spread virus and cause death and destruction,

Trump believers certainly do

trump, and of course, his' believers' are immune. probably immortal. 

52 minutes ago, RoadWarrior371 said:

About to the same degree the Leftists protests spread the Corona-virus.  LOL

Well they certainly won't catch it off Trump, he never had it despite all the BS that he did!

29 minutes ago, pookondee said:

 

Yet mass demonstrations, gathering on the streets, protests..dont seem to be causing any outbreaks.

I remember the BLM protests in Australia. A government body actually ruled that it was ok for them to protest.

Then they turned around and tried to tell us (on the news) that 2 people got infected because of the protests. lol

For thatv1 time It was actually ok to report hardly any cases, since doing otherwise would have put the blame on the government letting them protest. what a joke.

 

And this is how stupid they think the public is...

to have us believe only 2 people were infected, in a huge gathering, where a spreader was supposedly getting around in the midst of it, all day..

and this is a highly infectious thing. lol

Cmon man!

 

Look at at the gatherings in Bangkok..

-the 100s of Thais lining up for food at charity places.

-the 100s of foreigners lining up at Chaenwattana for visa.

-1000s of Thais who were lining up at Mochit 2 waiting for buses.

-people who were social distancing outside the BTS,  yet going inside the carriage and being packed in like sardines. lol

 

and on it goes, all this..without the disastrous outbreaks happening.

 

While many are saying Thailand is lying about its Covid figures, but clearly there SHOULD of been folks dieing everywhere if Covid was rampant.

 

Yes, USA is another story. But its obviously to far gone now..

IF the figures are to be believed.

They might as well go for herd immunity.

 

Another thing people dont realise..

There is mass panic about these figures..87,000 infected in 1 day..

but 99%+ are gonna get over it in a few days, if have no symptoms at all.

That means the 87k should be forgotten..yet the fear and cowering remains..job done.

 

And at the same time as all this supposed 2nd wave places, we know the actual death rates are falling just about everywhere.

 

It really is time a lot of us wake up me thinks

 

One tiny little detail you forgot to mention about Thailand: mask-wearing is virtually universal.

It's a model, not the actual case numbers.

It would be somewhat ironic if Trump loses because his followers are too sick to get out and vote on November 3.

26 minutes ago, placeholder said:

One tiny little detail you forgot to mention about Thailand: mask-wearing is virtually universal.

Well It always was a thing, for the pollution, so Asian countries were always going to have an advantage in that regard.

 

I for one can't understand the pushback against it in the western countries that have problems though.

Its like they are being asked to wear a crown of thorns.

yes

4 hours ago, pookondee said:

 

Yet mass demonstrations, gathering on the streets, protests..dont seem to be causing any outbreaks.

I remember the BLM protests in Australia. A government body actually ruled that it was ok for them to protest.

Then they turned around and tried to tell us (on the news) that 2 people got infected because of the protests. lol

For thatv1 time It was actually ok to report hardly any cases, since doing otherwise would have put the blame on the government letting them protest. what a joke.

 

And this is how stupid they think the public is...

to have us believe only 2 people were infected, in a huge gathering, where a spreader was supposedly getting around in the midst of it, all day..

and this is a highly infectious thing. lol

Cmon man!

 

Look at at the gatherings in Bangkok..

-the 100s of Thais lining up for food at charity places.

-the 100s of foreigners lining up at Chaenwattana for visa.

-1000s of Thais who were lining up at Mochit 2 waiting for buses.

-people who were social distancing outside the BTS,  yet going inside the carriage and being packed in like sardines. lol

 

and on it goes, all this..without the disastrous outbreaks happening.

 

While many are saying Thailand is lying about its Covid figures, but clearly there SHOULD of been folks dieing everywhere if Covid was rampant.

 

Yes, USA is another story. But its obviously to far gone now..

IF the figures are to be believed.

They might as well go for herd immunity.

 

Another thing people dont realise..

There is mass panic about these figures..87,000 infected in 1 day..

but 99%+ are gonna get over it in a few days, if have no symptoms at all.

That means the 87k should be forgotten..yet the fear and cowering remains..job done.

 

And at the same time as all this supposed 2nd wave places, we know the actual death rates are falling just about everywhere.

 

It really is time a lot of us wake up me thinks

 

You should look into this new field called science me thinks

     The dangerous, irresponsible, selfish, Covid-spreading rallies are probably the very best example of whom Trump is always thinking about.  Whom Trump always cares about.  Whom Trump is always  interested in.  Whom Trump is always working for.  Whom Trump always wants to help.  The answer is himself.  And only himself.  Period.  

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Are Trump's rallies spreading coronavirus?

YES

Only he and his fellow idiots will deny that ????

Notice how this biased drivel was never asked when the leftist mob was busy burning looting and marching? 

 

Imagine that ????

What about the Biden rallies?

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Are Trump's rallies spreading coronavirus?

Only love and promises.

38 minutes ago, Chiphigh said:

Notice how this biased drivel was never asked when the leftist mob was busy burning looting and marching? 

 

Imagine that ????

Nonsense, it was asked and answered.

 

You really think this is baseless drivel? How do you think the virus is spreading?

13 minutes ago, Jaybott said:

What about the Biden rallies?

You mean the ones where Biden supporters sit in their cars? Or are you referring to some imaginary ones?

51 minutes ago, Chiphigh said:

Notice how this biased drivel was never asked when the leftist mob was busy burning looting and marching? 

 

Imagine that ????

Nonsense.

It's been repeatedly addressed and pointed out that it's significantly different for Trump rallies since the President, the head of government is violating guidelines from virtually all responsible organizations including hids own White House Advisory Council.

Also, at least most of the protestors wore masks. Trump has repeatedly denigrated their use.

7 hours ago, RoadWarrior371 said:

About to the same degree the Leftists protests spread the Corona-virus.  LOL

They wear mask Trumper 

1 hour ago, Chiphigh said:

Notice how this biased drivel was never asked when the leftist mob was busy burning looting and marching? 

 

Imagine that ????

Protesters wear mask , Geezus imagine that 

26 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You mean the ones where Biden supporters sit in their cars? Or are you referring to some imaginary ones?

No.  The ones where 5 or 6 people show up.

 

And lets not forget about the Hollywood Elite (will be referred to as the Hollywood Aristocracy under a Harris-Biden administration):

 

Undeterred by an ongoing pandemic, Kim Kardashian West has revealed she threw a party for herself and dozens of friends on a private island that swapped social distancing for dancing, bike-riding and swimming with whales. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, Ireland32 said:

Protesters wear mask , Geezus imagine that 

Some did, some didn't. Get over it. The ridiculous double standards are obvious. 

30 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Nonsense.

It's been repeatedly addressed and pointed out that it's significantly different for Trump rallies since the President, the head of government is violating guidelines from virtually all responsible organizations including hids own White House Advisory Council.

Also, at least most of the protestors wore masks. Trump has repeatedly denigrated their use.

The ridiculous double standards of the left are obvious to everyone except the left. 

 

All for vacuous ignorant fear mongering for a virus with a 99.6 %survival rate, unless you have known health problems. 

7 hours ago, RoadWarrior371 said:

About to the same degree the Leftists protests spread the Corona-virus.  LOL

 

Actually, the data proves otherwise, as most at the protests wore masks.

5 hours ago, pookondee said:

Well It always was a thing, for the pollution, so Asian countries were always going to have an advantage in that regard.

 

I for one can't understand the pushback against it in the western countries that have problems though.

Its like they are being asked to wear a crown of thorns.

It is strange that freedom is dependent on who it is that is instructing them.

 

Trump:  "You're not allowed to use Huawei phones!"

Right wingers: "Huawei bad! We'll do as you tell us. MAGA!"

 

Trump:  "You're not allowed to use TikTok!"

Right wingers: "TikTok bad! We'll do as you tell us. MAGA!"

 

Trump:  "You're not allowed to stay at certain hotels when overseas!"

Right wingers: "Certain hotels are bad! We'll do as you tell us. MAGA!"

 

Scientists:  "Wearing a mask can strongly lower the chances of Coronavirus infection."

Right wingers: "Wear a mask?  You're infringing on my personal rights!  Boo hoo!  I'm not going to do it!  MAGA!"

19 minutes ago, Chiphigh said:

Some did, some didn't. Get over it. The ridiculous double standards are obvious. 

What don't you get about the fact that the President of the United States is flagrantly breaking the rules himself and is denigrating those who don't whereas his opponent follows those rules and exhorts others to do the same?