U.S. election betting odds tighten but still favour Trump over Biden

[Throatwobbler]

Biden has extended his lead in Nevada. Gone from 8,000to 12,000. Not a lot but going in the right direction. This is what was expected from the remaining votes in Nevada though. They were seen as favouring Biden.

 

[Throatwobbler]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Something wrong with their algorithm. Each state is individual. Their data may have shown that the remaining areas to count would be more heavily pro-Biden. Who knows?

They normally call States knowing where the remaining votes are coming from.

 

[Throatwobbler]

Georgia's within 14,000 votes. Catching up fast in Penns. Just what the experts said would happen. Democrats vote in large numbers in advanve and in most states those votes are counted late so expect a late swing to the democrats.

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Throatwobbler

[Susco]

8 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

They normally call States knowing where the remaining votes are coming from.

 

 

This is the explanation from the Associated Press, and it still doesn't make sense to me, if you look at the margin and how many votes are still estimated to be counted. And for sure not since they call it a historical Republican state

 

[candide]

14 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

Biden has extended his lead in Nevada. Gone from 8,000to 12,000. Not a lot but going in the right direction. This is what was expected from the remaining votes in Nevada though. They were seen as favouring Biden.

 

His probability of winning has gone up from 70% to 79% on Fox News website in around one hour.

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/probability-dials

[placeholder]

Not looking good for Trump in Nevada:

This is from Nate Silver, who has been closely monitoring the numbers:

NATE SILVER

NOV. 5, 12:28 PM

I’m not a decision desk, but I suppose I think Nevada is on the verge of being callable at this point. Two-thirds of the state’s population is in Clark County and Biden is gaining big in Clark County! Not sure I see the route for a Trump comeback.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

[Throatwobbler]

2 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

This is the explanation from the Associated Press, and it still doesn't make sense to me, if you look at the margin and how many votes are still estimated to be counted. And for sure not since they call it a historical Republican state

 

I think they look at where the outstanding votes and where they are coming from. That is why Georgia was tilting Biden earlier today despite Trumps lead. The remaining votes are vote in which are heavily in favour of Biden.

 

Likewise if there are enough available votes out there but in regions that are not traditionally Republican heavy they will call it for the Democrats.

 

This has bitten them on the ass a couple of times in the past

 

[PattayaJames]

37 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And Jesus is ultimately going to return.

"Ultimately" is one of those flabby words that render a statement unimpeachable because unfalsifiable. 

We already have had a Horowitz investigation, a Huber investigation, and a Bash investigation turn up nothing. Now the true believers are pinning their hopes on the Durham investigation which so far has found one low level lawyer guilty of falsifying a document. I can remember not long ago when certain parties were claiming that there would be a huge number of indictments and convictions of traitorous Deep State criminals resulting from these investigations. You still have high hopes for the Durham investigation?

 

I was clearly talking about how history would record this time. 

Not about current affairs. 

You can understand the difference?

 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, PattayaJames said:

 

I was clearly talking about how history would record this time. 

Not about current affairs. 

You can understand the difference?

 

I do understand the difference. But since you have a long track record of predicting dire legal consequences for Deep Staters, naturally I thought you were referring to that. So you've given up on your expectations for mass indictments and convictions?

[Susco]

16 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

 

This has bitten them on the ass a couple of times in the past

 

 

https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/us-election-live-updates-joe-biden-holds-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-with-wisconsin-michigan-and-pennsylvania-still-too-close-to-call-20201104-p56bk2.html

 

Protests have emerged in a number of locations across the US. In Chicago and New York, largely Democrat crowds marched in support of all votes being counted. In Michigan, Trump supporters have protested a counting centre calling for the count to stop whereas in tightening Arizona, which we have called for Biden, they protested for the count to continue.

[Throatwobbler]

11 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/us-election-live-updates-joe-biden-holds-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-with-wisconsin-michigan-and-pennsylvania-still-too-close-to-call-20201104-p56bk2.html

 

Protests have emerged in a number of locations across the US. In Chicago and New York, largely Democrat crowds marched in support of all votes being counted. In Michigan, Trump supporters have protested a counting centre calling for the count to stop whereas in tightening Arizona, which we have called for Biden, they protested for the count to continue.

The oxymorons of Trump fans. They have no idea of the hypocrisy they sprout on a regular basis. That includes the ones on this forum who have no gone quiet.

[Credo]

4 hours ago, Susco said:

 

To be honest, I would like to know why they called Arizona with such a small margin and only 88% of the votes counted.

 

It was a little bit complicated and it seems a few networks took a closer look and decided NOT to call the state for Biden.   The issue was one of a large number of late votes.   These were referred to as 'late' early votes.   

 

AZ allows for early in-person voting, vote by mail-in ballot and election day voting.   In the early voting it tilted toward Biden.   In the election day voting it tilted toward Trump, however, there was a very large (I think 400,000+ ballots) that were turned into polling places after early voting had ended and election day.   There was no good idea of the demographic, a lot of networks decided it was too big a number and too many unknowns to call it.   

 

It appears that the ballots were tilted toward Trump and were people who didn't want to vote early but didn't want to vote in person, so they filled out their ballot and dropped them off on election day.   Those votes had to be processed similar to an early vote, thus the delay and also the reluctant of many news organizations to make a call.

 

[candide]

It's priceless to have a look at Trumps Twitter account. He's enraged and gets most of his tweets tagged. ????

https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump

 

[Salerno]

Cunning old codger ... setting up a "Not guilty due to insanity" defence 

[soalbundy]

13 hours ago, PattayaJames said:

Well the polls were embarrassingly wrong. Again!

I do not know of anyone embarrassed to support Trump.

As to history, I think ultimately the left,  the establishment and media of this time will be exposed as totally corrupt dishonest and evil.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have never understood the American fear of the left, the ghost of communism and yet pay lip service to Christianity. There has never been a communist state to compare to, plenty of dictatorships that called themselves socialist though (no socialism isn't the same as communism, it is a mixture of capitalism and heavily watered down communism) Even Russia in its hay day didn't call itself communist, it was a Soviet socialist republic. If you take the ground principal of Marxism, "To each according to his needs, from each according to his abilities" it sounds like utopia and christian in its essence.

 

There has never been a Christian society nor a communist one because mankind can't live up to the ideals.

We have had rampant capitalism causing hardship and poverty for the general population (the UK and the USA were dark examples of this 150 years ago) and dictatorships calling themselves socialists causing the same amount of distress (Russia in the past, North Korea today) The left arose as a necessity to temper these ills, so we received a free press, trade unions, voting rights, education for our children and a fair judicial system (all had to be fought for against capital interests).

The media (a media free from bias) is essential for any democratic society (again something that like communism exists in name only), a free press is the first thing that a dictatorship seeks to destroy. Yes you have to be carefull today, the internet threatens to eat its own children  with disinformation, everybody has an agender and every newspaper is biased in one direction or another so it is important to read more than one, I read 5, even though I have to hold my nose reading the Daily Express. The truth is out there (no, not you Donald) but you have to be discerning.

 

The establishment was always there, even since the bronze age, the establishment is capitalism in its crudest form and has a great deal of experience even Stalin, Mao or Hitler couldn't wipe it out, to some extent they relied on it. We have to live with, reaping small victories on the way as well as accepting defeats but even the establishment softens with the times in order to avoid the days of the guillotine.

I shall give out this post in book form later.

[joecoolfrog]

30 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

I have never understood the American fear of the left, the ghost of communism and yet pay lip service to Christianity. There has never been a communist state to compare to, plenty of dictatorships that called themselves socialist though (no socialism isn't the same as communism, it is a mixture of capitalism and heavily watered down communism) Even Russia in its hay day didn't call itself communist, it was a Soviet socialist republic. If you take the ground principal of Marxism, "To each according to his needs, from each according to his abilities" it sounds like utopia and christian in its essence.

 

There has never been a Christian society nor a communist one because mankind can't live up to the ideals.

We have had rampant capitalism causing hardship and poverty for the general population (the UK and the USA were dark examples of this 150 years ago) and dictatorships calling themselves socialists causing the same amount of distress (Russia in the past, North Korea today) The left arose as a necessity to temper these ills, so we received a free press, trade unions, voting rights, education for our children and a fair judicial system (all had to be fought for against capital interests).

The media (a media free from bias) is essential for any democratic society (again something that like communism exists in name only), a free press is the first thing that a dictatorship seeks to destroy. Yes you have to be carefull today, the internet threatens to eat its own children  with disinformation, everybody has an agender and every newspaper is biased in one direction or another so it is important to read more than one, I read 5, even though I have to hold my nose reading the Daily Express. The truth is out there (no, not you Donald) but you have to be discerning.

 

The establishment was always there, even since the bronze age, the establishment is capitalism in its crudest form and has a great deal of experience even Stalin, Mao or Hitler couldn't wipe it out, to some extent they relied on it. We have to live with, reaping small victories on the way as well as accepting defeats but even the establishment softens with the times in order to avoid the days of the guillotine.

I shall give out this post in book form later.

I am socially liberal but certainly not left wing , however all your points are spot on. Unbridled capitalism is just as  unworkable as communism , hence the socialist elements in play even in the USA , apparently some people are too dumb to recognise reality it seems.

,

[xylophone]

15 hours ago, PattayaJames said:

I think ultimately the left,  the establishment and media of this time will be exposed as totally corrupt dishonest and evil.

If you really want to see "dishonest and evil" you should watch the Netflix series, "Dirty Money" and especially number six in the list of exposés, where it deals with Donald Trump and his "schemes".

 

The one which I didn't know much about and really disgusted me was the "Trump University" scam which cheated hundreds of everyday Americans out of their hard earned savings and even put many of them into debt.

 

The evil side of it comes when he is filmed (real footage) with some of the worst/corrupt crooks in Eastern Europe and shortly after his failing/cash-strapped empire receives a cash influx?

 

Then of course the recent tax cuts to his high earning buddies did nothing, to very little for the everyday working man, yet enabled his corporate friends to buy back/increase the shareholding of the companies to make them even wealthier.

 

If you really want to talk about corruption, dishonesty and evil, then Donald Trump is your man in a scale hitherto unmatched by any president of the United States.

[sucit]

17 hours ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Two reasons, I suppose. A person is embarrassed and will not be truthful or they lie so the results will be squed. 

Even if that was true it would most likely happen on the other side as well.  And, this is the type of thing they correct for. The answer is when polls are skewed against one person it is probably deliberate and purposefully meant to harm. 

Edited November 6, 2020 by sucit

[earlinclaifornia]

Very strange your post. We are talking why trump supporters are not accurately accounted for. Conspiracy is funny reason You scared? You think trump will win too?

[xylophone]

10 hours ago, Salerno said:

Cunning old codger ... setting up a "Not guilty due to insanity" defence 

Very easily provable though!

[placeholder]

17 minutes ago, sucit said:

Even if that was true it would most likely happen on the other side as well.  And, this is the type of thing they correct for. The answer is when polls are skewed against one person it is probably deliberate and purposefully meant to harm. 

You mean like in 2012 when the polls skewed in favor of Romney?

[Chelseafan]

On 11/4/2020 at 8:20 AM, JusticeGB said:

Just shows how pollsters are completely useless. It looks like Trump will squeeze in by a small margin. 

 

It's Interesting going back and reading the comments on this thread. I agree pollsters got it wrong and I suspect its because voters don't want to admit voting for Trump but as it stands now with a projected Biden win and more data even we've probably got the outcome wrong.

 

It's a tough job being a pollster.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, sucit said:

Even if that was true it would most likely happen on the other side as well.  And, this is the type of thing they correct for. The answer is when polls are skewed against one person it is probably deliberate and purposefully meant to harm. 

but, but, but they still got it wrong

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, sucit said:

Even if that was true it would most likely happen on the other side as well.  And, this is the type of thing they correct for. The answer is when polls are skewed against one person it is probably deliberate and purposefully meant to harm. 

Such nonsense. These organization depend on the accuracy of their results in order to keep their credibility. They are capitalists you know. This notion of some sort of conspiracy or common overriding motivation is transparently ridiculous.

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

but, but, but they still got it wrong

In some areas of the country they got it wrong. In others not. It also depends on what you mean by wrong. If Trump wins within the margin of error, as in Florida, not wrong. On the other hand where Trump lost outside of the margin of error, like Wisconsin and Michigan, wrong. Consoling yourself for how wrong you were?