Funds Pile Into Thailand as Vaccine Progress Boosts Tourism Hopes

[webfact]

Funds Pile Into Thailand as Vaccine Progress Boosts Tourism Hopes 
Marcus Wong 

 

Image: Bloomberg

(for reference only)

 

(Bloomberg) -- Progress toward a coronavirus vaccine is fueling optimism Thailand will soon reopen for mass tourism. Overseas investors are already piling into the country’s financial markets. 

 

Inflows into Thai sovereign debt have climbed to the highest in 17 months in November, even though the month is less than half over. The baht has strengthened almost 3% since the end of October, making it the best-performing currency in Asia after the Indonesian rupiah. New central bank Governor Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput will hold his first monetary policy meeting next week, though he’s unlikely to do much to deter foreign funds.

 

“Foreigners have been mainly buying the front-end of the Thai debt curve for exposure to baht gains,” said Poon Panichpibool, a strategist at Krung Thai Bank Pcl in Bangkok. They are betting on Thai currency gains, and it looks like the baht will strengthen further over the next 12 months as the vaccine will be a major trigger for tourism arrivals, he said.

 

Full story: https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/funds-pile-in-as-vaccines-outweigh-thai-tensions-seasia-rates 

 

-- © Copyright BloombergQuint 2020-11-13

 

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[keith101]

Why would tourists come here if the BAHT is to high all over again which will reduce their ability to spend money .

The over valued baht will hit exports more as companies will not buy as much goods due to the poor exchange rate .

[JusticeGB]

The vaccines are in development stage and seem to be 90%, at best, effective. The adverse risk scared Government of Thailand is unlikely to open its doors to tourists quickly even after the vaccine is released. Most of Thailand's population would have to be vaccinated before that could be considered safe.

[Bangyai]

15 hours ago, webfact said:

the baht will strengthen further over the next 12 months as the vaccine will be a major trigger for tourism arrivals, he said.

 

I doubt it.

 

Chinese buying up the place maybe , but western tourists ............. not likely to reach former levels under the current administration.

[Traubert]

9 minutes ago, Bangyai said:

 

I doubt it.

 

Chinese buying up the place maybe , but western tourists ............. not likely to reach former levels under the current administration.

There are more than Western tourists.

[ThailandRyan]

Slowly pricing out those tourists from the west with the Baht increasing, and then the high amount of money needed in a tourists bank account for 6 months prior to applying, not sure how the Chinese normal zero baht tourist will be able to meet the 500K THB 6 month requirement. That is, unless they have the money hidden from their own Government in a bank account overseas.

[khunPer]

To be realistic, I think it might take up to another year from now before vaccine distribution is working up to a safe level – vaccine out early 2021 plus at least 6 month duration before enough mass vaccinations are done – i.e. safe enough to reopen borders without a number of restrictions that might make tourists decide to either stay home, or choose nearby easy-access destinations within their own bubble...????

[Bangyai]

16 hours ago, Traubert said:

There are more than Western tourists.

 

A lot more , which is why they don't care much about westerners.

 

As for the Chinese , their government is making them increasingly unpopular and they may find themselves a bit cash strapped in future.

[John Drake]

Which group of nations does Thailand belong to?

 

https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/small-group-rich-nations-have-bought-more-half-future-supply-leading-covid-19

 

"The international agency also warned that the same companies simply do not have the capacity to make enough vaccines for everyone who needs one. Even in the extremely unlikely event that all five vaccines succeed, nearly two thirds (61 percent) of the world’s population will not have a vaccine until at least 2022. It’s far more likely some of these experiments will fail, leaving the number of people without access even higher."

Edited November 13, 2020 by John Drake

[2530Ubon]

Funds pile into Thailand - WHY WHY WHY!

 

1) We still do not know the efficacy of any of these vaccines. 90% & 92% (Phizer & Sputnik V) are two efficacy numbers being touted with much fanfare, but we don't know how effective they are in the people who matter (older, sick, vulnerable people). This is because these people are deemed to be too 'at risk' to place in the testing groups.

 

2) We have seen multipe cases of people getting reinfected - this does not bode well for vaccines, as it should be a one time deal. The immune system has to remember how to fight this infection off, and if it forgets within a few months, and reinfection is possibe even with antibodies, then we're all in for some bad news.

 

3) Thailand is in the midst of a political storm. There are protests around the country every other day, with no end in sight. People are dusting off their red and yellow shirts and it looks like a coup could be on the cards. Why invest in a country gripped by constant in-fighting in the streets?

 

4) As stated by a forum member above, Thailand (and most of the world) will not be getting a vaccine for quite some time... Why are people betting on this happening NOW? Stupidity?

 

5) Thailand has next to NO tourism income (approx 10 - 19% of GDP - direct & indirect) so exporting goods is one of the few remaining income streams. With a strengthening Baht, these exports keep getting less and less competitive and lose value. 2 thirds of Thailands income is derived from exports, and it's single largest importer is...wait for it... the USA - 11.4%, closely followed by China - 11.1%

 

[Kaopad999]

Just hope this  vaccine gets approved ASAP, then gradually everyone can get back to their normal lives
 

Edited November 13, 2020 by Kaopad999

[miamiman123]

It does not make sense why the baht continues to strengthen....something is afoot.

The CV vaccine is a long way away from being useful on a large scale.

I honestly think it’s the Chinese that are investing in Thailand with the help of the current administration...nothing else adds up, especially in light of the domestic issues that the country is facing!

 

[Pedrogaz]

2 hours ago, JusticeGB said:

The vaccines are in development stage and seem to be 90%, at best, effective. The adverse risk scared Government of Thailand is unlikely to open its doors to tourists quickly even after the vaccine is released. Most of Thailand's population would have to be vaccinated before that could be considered safe.

I haven't ever seen what "effectiveness" means in these studies? Are that all using the same standard definition....for example does 90% effective mean that if people 10 people out of 100 taking placebo would catch COVID vs only 1 taking the vaccine or does it mean that if 100 people take the vaccine only 10 will catch the disease which is of course not very impressive? Are the studies done in a lab or in a real life situation?

[miamiman123]

It appears that the USA may well close down for up to six weeks in  January.... that will be devastating to their economy again and will certainly not help the 11.5% of imports that they buy from Thailand.

strange indeed this ever strengthening Baht.

 

[Chiang Mai Bill]

3 hours ago, JusticeGB said:

The vaccines are in development stage and seem to be 90%, at best, effective. The adverse risk scared Government of Thailand is unlikely to open its doors to tourists quickly even after the vaccine is released. Most of Thailand's population would have to be vaccinated before that could be considered safe.

The Pfizer vaccine, the world's first successful (+90%) vaccine, is anticipated for approval soon -- and planned for distribution mid December in the UK -- has to be kept at --70 centigrade -- which presents a big problem for hot countries!  Also, unless countries have pre-paid and pre-ordered doses they will be at the back of the list for delivery! Has the Thai Government done this?

 

I just wish I knew what: ''buying the front-end of the Thai debt curve for exposure to baht gains,” means?

 

And I do not understand how betting on Thai currency gains -- and an even stronger Baht -- will be a major trigger for tourism -- but then I'm not a 'Thai bank strategist'!

 

I suppose one could also expect that the Thai Government will relax restrictions on those foreign travellers given a vaccine? Well, maybe not!

 

[HarrySeaman]

The Pfizer vaccine is undergoing a small and limited first clinical trial.  Subjects are randomly and blindly assigned to ones who receive the vaccine and those that receive a dummy vaccine. 

 

If anyone in the study group becomes infected they are investigated, and part of that investigation is to find out if they are in the vaccinated group or the group that got a dummy vaccine.  So far the numbers infected are very small, but most of those infected are in the group that got the dummy vaccine.  A larger clinical test needs to be done to determine the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine.  It is really fortune telling to clam that the vaccine is 90% effective at this point.

[madmitch]

If you read to the end of the original article you will see that this is just one person’s view, a writer for Bloomberg. Just one opinion. 

 

Yesterday we had the finance minister talking about controlling the strength of the baht. Another day, another story, very typical of the times we are currently living in.

[soalbundy]

So now I know why the Baht has climbed so high recently, it isn't fundamentals, it is because desperate fund managers around the West cant find anywhere to invest at a profit so they grasp at straws. Open the borders, not many falang have the money or the desire to travel at the moment, Chinese? maybe  but they won't support the general population. A recent survey showed that many people won't be flying even if covid disappears, there's been a perceptual change which has the airlines worried as well as Boeing and Airbus.

Thailand doesn't look too politically stable at the moment, funds can flow out as well as in.

[Megasin1]

There is no doubt that lying in Thailand is an art form, however you do have to admire it to a certain extent, I can vividly recall the British Minister for Business being interviewed outside the Houses of Parliament the day after the Brexit vote stating it was the worst day of her life as we watched sterling tumble. In a world that revolves around confidence a little white lie, or even just doing your job properly can make a big difference, however its probably best not to overkill it or make such incredulous announcements on a regular basis that it becomes so ludicrous that you just become a laughing stock ????

[John Drake]

33 minutes ago, Chiang Mai Bill said:

The Pfizer vaccine, the world's first successful (+90%) vaccine, is anticipated for approval soon -- and planned for distribution mid December in the UK -- has to be kept at --70 centigrade -- which presents a big problem for hot countries!

 

Any country will need a cold storage distribution system, mainly through hospitals or local government agencies? Sounds like First World first, and Third World last to me. And Thailand is not First World.

[sencelebi]

On 10/22/2020 at 9:40 AM, johng said:

 

On 10/23/2020 at 2:27 PM, Oldie said:

Of course not. But what if you come into a situation that you can't have the pet anymore. What options do you have here in Thailand? 

 

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Slowly pricing out those tourists from the west with the Baht increasing, and then the high amount of money needed in a tourists bank account for 6 months prior to applying, not sure how the Chinese normal zero baht tourist will be able to meet the 500K THB 6 month requirement. That is, unless they have the money hidden from their own Government in a bank account overseas.

They don't require that 500K for Chinese, Yes it's on the paper but  they don't require it when Chinese people apply for visa at the consulate.

[Sheryl]

4 hours ago, JusticeGB said:

The vaccines are in development stage and seem to be 90%, at best, effective. The adverse risk scared Government of Thailand is unlikely to open its doors to tourists quickly even after the vaccine is released. Most of Thailand's population would have to be vaccinated before that could be considered safe.

 

Not necessarily. If the traveler is vaccinated plus has a negative antigen test and proof of antibodies, that would make them safe to come even if the Thai population is unvaccinated.

 

 

[paulikens]

  thailand will be happy it will be rolled out in the western world first to test on the foreigners  make sure its ok for their citizens  ????

Edited November 13, 2020 by paulikens

[Percy P]

4 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why would tourists come here if the BAHT is to high all over again which will reduce their ability to spend money .

The over valued baht will hit exports more as companies will not buy as much goods due to the poor exchange rate .

Who says the Baht is over valued. Thai government doesn't set the value of their currency against other world currencies .. Its done  internationally through the International monetary fund.

its not the  Baht  thats over valued its  other countries currency that  has lost its value against the Baht.

[samsensam]

4 hours ago, JusticeGB said:

The vaccines are in development stage and seem to be 90%, at best, effective. The adverse risk scared Government of Thailand is unlikely to open its doors to tourists quickly even after the vaccine is released. Most of Thailand's population would have to be vaccinated before that could be considered safe.

 

what are thailand's plans for the vaccine; how many doses have been pre-ordered? who will be the first groups of the population to be vaccinated? when will the vaccination programme begin?

[CorpusChristie]

2 hours ago, 2530Ubon said:

Funds pile into Thailand - WHY WHY WHY!

 

1) We still do not know the efficacy of any of these vaccines. 90% & 92% (Phizer & Sputnik V) are two efficacy numbers being touted with much fanfare, but we don't know how effective they are in the people who matter (older, sick, vulnerable people). This is because these people are deemed to be too 'at risk' to place in the testing groups.

 

2) We have seen multipe cases of people getting reinfected - this does not bode well for vaccines, as it should be a one time deal. The immune system has to remember how to fight this infection off, and if it forgets within a few months, and reinfection is possibe even with antibodies, then we're all in for some bad news.

 

3) Thailand is in the midst of a political storm. There are protests around the country every other day, with no end in sight. People are dusting off their red and yellow shirts and it looks like a coup could be on the cards. Why invest in a country gripped by constant in-fighting in the streets?

 

4) As stated by a forum member above, Thailand (and most of the world) will not be getting a vaccine for quite some time... Why are people betting on this happening NOW? Stupidity?

 

5) Thailand has next to NO tourism income (approx 10 - 19% of GDP - direct & indirect) so exporting goods is one of the few remaining income streams. With a strengthening Baht, these exports keep getting less and less competitive and lose value. 2 thirds of Thailands income is derived from exports, and it's single largest importer is...wait for it... the USA - 11.4%, closely followed by China - 11.1%

 

 

    If Corvid is similar to the flu, which mutates and comes back in a different form every year and people need yearly flu jabs for immunization, wouldnt that render a Covid vaccination to be ineffective ?

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, khunPer said:

To be realistic, I think it might take up to another year from now before vaccine distribution is working up to a safe level – vaccine out early 2021 plus at least 6 month duration before enough mass vaccinations are done – i.e. safe enough to reopen borders without a number of restrictions that might make tourists decide to either stay home, or choose nearby easy-access destinations within their own bubble...????

I think I read that the leading contented in the Vaccine race has a Major stumbling Block, in that it needs Storage and Transportation at Minus 70 Deg C.

Also 2 Doses  are needed for each 'Patient " to be  properly Immunized, with the second dosage many weeks after the first one.

Correct me if I am wrong with this.

[natway09]

More like a doom & gloom factory than Thai Visa.

Thailands recovery may surprise you as the country has always shown to be very resiliant.

Strength of the Baht indicators measure a lot more than just the tourism which 80% are large corporate investors who will survive. (Feel sorry for the staff though)

First world countries Governments are also very scared as they pay out billions in  social security, unemployment benefits a month, & desperately trying to maintain hospital care under massive overloads 

Thailand is still on track to export 90% by value as they did last year & if you check their increases over 10 years 10% decline is more than managable

Incidently last week they estimated 2.4 million vacant employment vacancies throughout the country, supporting my argument that any young healthy Thai can get a job if they want

[Walter Travolta]

1 hour ago, Chiang Mai Bill said:

 and planned for distribution mid December in the UK -- has to be kept at --70 centigrade -- which presents a big problem for hot countries!

Im not sure how many countries average temperatures run at -70C so wouldnt cold countries need to do the same as hot countries to keep the vaccine at that temp?

[ThailandRyan]

30 minutes ago, sencelebi said:

 

 

They don't require that 500K for Chinese, Yes it's on the paper but  they don't require it when Chinese people apply for visa at the consulate.

You have proof Chinese don't need the funds in the bank for 6 months for an SETV?