Why, why why is the Thai Baht still very strong 13 November 2020

[jwest10]

Why is the Thai Baht still very very strong despite apparently  with a lot of reserves going out of the country, next to no tourist income and thousands upon thousands losing their income.
Someone is manipulating the currencies of the world and making a fortune.
Can anyone enlighten me and yes some other currencies are weak, also but why is the British pound now below th e 40 Bant mark and a decade ago 73 to the pound.
Also the local economy is really struggling and Thai exporters as well as the local community really struggling.

[Kwasaki]

Years ago 70 to £ was a blip the baht was dealing at a similar level before and it has found its place in the money markets as of today. 

[TSF]

I think you answered your own question when you said: "Someone is manipulating the currencies of the world and making a fortune."

[Andy from Kent]

 

And getting stronger every day???

 

 

[Traubert]

The baht isn't strong.

 

The dollar is quite rightly weak.

[jwest10]

19 minutes ago, Traubert said:

The baht isn't strong.

 

The dollar is quite rightly weak.

Sorry you looked at the exchangr rates today The pound and dollar getting weaker every day and YES THE BAHT IS too strong.

[jwest10]

31 minutes ago, TSF said:

I think you answered your own question when you said: "Someone is manipulating the currencies of the world and making a fortune."

Yes mate, just like Gleeson all those years ago and caused the collape of Baring Brothers and of course we have been bailing the banks out since the crisis of the 1980s.

[oldhippy]

The OP gave 3 reasons why he thinks the baht should be weaker.

 

1/ The Thai economy is struggling. Very difficult to compare in these corona times, but if other economies are struggling more, the baht would of course strengthen.

 

2/ No tourist income. Correct, but the importance of tourism for Thailand is not as great as what the misunderstood number of 17+ % suggests. That is 17% compared to GDP, not 17% of GDP. There is a difference between turnover and added value.

 

3/ Reserves going out of the country. Can you please give me your source.

 

Somebody is manipulating the currencies of the world?

Interesting conspiracy theory, but based on what evidence?

 

 

[oldhippy]

16 minutes ago, jwest10 said:

Yes mate, just like Gleeson all those years ago and caused the collape of Baring Brothers and of course we have been bailing the banks out since the crisis of the 1980s.

Please enlighten me about Gleeson, since google did not help me at all.

[luckyluke]

4 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

Please enlighten me about Gleeson, since google did not help me at all.

Nick Leeson

[oldhippy]

3 minutes ago, luckyluke said:

Nick Leeson

Thank you.

 

However, this has nothing to do with currency manipulation.

Completely off topic.

[Natai Beach]

18 minutes ago, jwest10 said:

Sorry you looked at the exchangr rates today The pound and dollar getting weaker every day and YES THE BAHT IS too strong.

The Thais don’t have the brexit/out of control covid disaster/ trade deficit/ governments wasting billions on paying people not to work problems.

Add that the Chinese and Japanese are actively buying up big time in Thailand bringing in billions. 
Massive foreign reserves also helps. Thailand has the 12th highest in the world and even higher if you calculate it per capita.
 

The local economy is relatively weak currently but the Thais don’t have a debt disaster like the US, UK etc.

 

People who claim the Thais are manipulating the baht don’t get it. It is beneficial to manipulate it down, not up. 

 

 

 

 

[oldhippy]

6 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

Thank you.

 

However, this has nothing to do with currency manipulation.

Completely off topic.

I just saw something...... who posted about Gleeson / Leeson??????

 

This must be a first ever!!!!! The OP going off his own topic 555.

 

[Robin]

If anyone can control the value of the Baht, it is those who benefit from a 'strong' Baht, which makes imports of Military hardware and foreign luxury goods  cheaper in baht terms, and those overseas shopping trips, when they start again will not cost too much.  So the Baht will be kept a strong as possible for as long as they are running the country.

Devalue the Baht, and the beneficiaries are the 'poor farmers' and the tourist industry, mostly the poor..  To the government, these people do not matter, as the Amart benefit from keeping the poor poor to provide cheap servants and workers in their factories.  Keep the poor as poor as possible, so they are too busy struggling to survive to make any trouble.

If this also keeps out those troublesome Westerners with their liberal ideas, that is a bonus.

[oldhippy]

3 minutes ago, Robin said:

If anyone can control the value of the Baht, it is those who benefit from a 'strong' Baht, which makes imports of Military hardware and foreign luxury goods  cheaper in baht terms, and those overseas shopping trips, when they start again will not cost too much.  So the Baht will be kept a strong as possible for as long as they are running the country.

Devalue the Baht, and the beneficiaries are the 'poor farmers' and the tourist industry, mostly the poor..  To the government, these people do not matter, as the Amart benefit from keeping the poor poor to provide cheap servants and workers in their factories.  Keep the poor as poor as possible, so they are too busy struggling to survive to make any trouble.

If this also keeps out those troublesome Westerners with their liberal ideas, that is a bonus.

If you think that the baht is over-valued, why not buy cheap baht at the black market?

Oh wait, there is no black market...... Maybe that tells you something?

[ExpatOilWorker]

Thailand still have a trade surplus, that is the long term reason why the baht just get stronger and stronger.

But, that does not explain why the baht is getting stronger right now, with zero tourist.

It could be that Thai companies are repatriating money from abroad to make up for a shortfall in domestic revenue. 

Similar to the Japanese Yen got stronger after the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima disaster, because Japanese companies pull money back to Japan.

 

[oldhippy]

7 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Thailand still have a trade surplus, that is the long term reason why the baht just get stronger and stronger.

But, that does not explain why the baht is getting stronger right now, with zero tourist.

It could be that Thai companies are repatriating money from abroad to make up for a shortfall in domestic revenue. 

Similar to the Japanese Yen got stronger after the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima disaster, because Japanese companies pull money back to Japan.

 

Correct, but why do you mention the zero tourist argument? How many tourists are flocking into Europe, US, or any other country? Same situation all over the world, and therefore it explains nothing.

[moontang]

Plenty of wealthy not buying imported goods here, because the taxes are a ripoff to the nth degree.  Even stuff like condiments are 3 times more than the US.  

[Susco]

3 hours ago, jwest10 said:

Can anyone enlighten me and yes some other currencies are weak, also but why is the British pound now below th e 40 Bant mark and a decade ago 73 to the pound.

 

Ask Boris and the leavers camp active on this forum

 

 

 

Edited November 13, 2020 by Susco

[Susco]

1 hour ago, Robin said:

If anyone can control the value of the Baht, it is those who benefit from a 'strong' Baht, which makes imports of Military hardware and foreign luxury goods  cheaper in baht terms, and those overseas shopping trips, when they start again will not cost too much.

 

 

Why they would need a strong Baht? According to other conspiracy theorists on this forum, they have overflowing accounts in about every country of the world, so they just use the local currency

[oldhippy]

2 hours ago, jwest10 said:

Sorry you looked at the exchangr rates today The pound and dollar getting weaker every day and YES THE BAHT IS too strong.

QUOTE: THE BAHT IS too strong.

 

Too strong for living the farang life on a meager British pension. I agree.

Therefore the baht must go down, ergo the baht is manipulated. I disagree.

 

Endearing wishfull thinking........

[samsensam]

20 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

QUOTE: THE BAHT IS too strong.

 

Too strong for living the farang life on a meager British pension. I agree.

Therefore the baht must go down, ergo the baht is manipulated. I disagree.

 

Endearing wishfull thinking........

 

haha, there does seem to be a one eyed view of the baht exchange rate here. anyone working, being paid in baht and shipping it home is quids in, anyone working and paid in baht and holidaying abroad likewise, imports are cheaper - in theory!

[3NUMBAS]

george soros is quite capable on this score ,done it many times

[oldhippy]

10 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

george soros is quite capable on this score ,done it many times

Do you have any proof or even indications of this, or just the fact that he is jewish and therefore part of the Great Conspiracy For World Domination?

[Susco]

2 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

Do you have any proof or even indications of this, or just the fact that he is jewish and therefore part of the Great Conspiracy For World Domination?

 

Soros crashed the Baht in 1997, plenty of documentation about that, and he did with the pound and several other currencies as well in the past.

 

So he is very well capable of this and made his fortune this way, but he only practices this if he sees some underlying base that give him a high rate of succeeding, so I guess at this moment, he doesn't consider succeeding.

[tomazbodner]

You didn't read of that amazing capital inflows into Thailand that will push the THB up significantly over the next 12 months? It just increased 3% in past 2 months and going up daily.

[Dcheech]

The high pressure system over central asia is spreading south. The winds push the monsoon moisture back out to sea, setting up the dry season.

 

In this time the Baht swells and grows large. 

[Barnabe]

Every day there’s a new topic on this ????

 

I usually write a long answer explaining why but here are some bullet points instead:

- western countries finances are a joke compared to Thai, westerners have no fiscal discipline

- if there’s currency manipulation, it’s being manipulated to keep THB down, not up

- your purchasing power is eroding and that’s hard to swallow but these are the facts, better get used to it, it’s not going back up to 70’s, will probably hover between 35 and 45 to GBP for the next decade, plan accordingly 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by Barnabe

[jwest10]

On 11/13/2020 at 5:43 PM, oldhippy said:

Please enlighten me about Gleeson, since google did not help me at all.

Sorry it might be Leeson

[moontang]

21 hours ago, Barnabe said:

Every day there’s a new topic on this ????

 

I usually write a long answer explaining why but here are some bullet points instead:

- western countries finances are a joke compared to Thai, westerners have no fiscal discipline

- if there’s currency manipulation, it’s being manipulated to keep THB down, not up

- your purchasing power is eroding and that’s hard to swallow but these are the facts, better get used to it, it’s not going back up to 70’s, will probably hover between 35 and 45 to GBP for the next decade, plan accordingly 

 

 

Thai personal debt is horrendous, and with wages about an eighth of the US, it isn't like they can just decide to save more.