No deal on Brexit trade 'very very likely', British PM Johnson says

[Gwen1234]

6 minutes ago, bannork said:

No, he was Trump first, and no one else mattered. The world's most prominent narcissist, now a very sore loser.

Lock him up..... lock him up ...

Better than biden being china first????‍♂️ kid sniffer and a crackhead son.  American politics is entertaining haha

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Gwen1234 said:

Better than biden being china first????‍♂️ kid sniffer and a crackhead son.  American politics is entertaining haha

Oh dear.....bet you are missing Obama now.

Edited December 12, 2020 by Surelynot

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, Surelynot said:

Oh dear.....bet you are missing Obama now.

Obvious troll is trolling. Best not to feed the troll.

Probably a Putinbot anyway ????.

Do you think Putin still has that video of Trump and his cough warm shower?

[Surelynot]

Just now, Rookiescot said:

Obvious troll is trolling. Best not to feed the troll.

Probably a Putinbot anyway ????.

Do you think Putin still has that video of Trump and his cough warm shower?

Ha keep searching for it......maybe his wife has it and will use it for leverage during the forthcoming divorce.

[Surelynot]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Most teenagers are given advice by their parents on

1) Dangers of excessive alcohol

2) Drugs

3)Boys or Girls depending on which sex

4) the use of codoms

 

Most teenagers may listen to their parents but they don't always follow their advice

Remainers seem to think if you listen to Cameron or Osborne then you should have voted remain

 

 

A few months listening to Cameron versus 40 years reading the The Mail and The Express........no competition.

[bannork]

25 minutes ago, Gwen1234 said:

Better than biden being china first????‍♂️ kid sniffer and a crackhead son.  American politics is entertaining haha

Biden said no trade deals with foreign countries until the USA gets its act together.

Better than Trump with his connections to Putin.

It's all over for Trump. the narcissist.

 

 

[puipuitom]

13 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Can't wait to see the French fisherman riots burning Macron posters. Macron is digging himself into an almighty hole.

With just 1 % of the financial service transactions going now via the City of London brought to Paris, Macron has enough earned from France to compensate all french fishermen.

 

And those "financials" are already leaving.

Add to that the British car makers no longer a competitor for the French ( and other EU car makers, caused by 10% import duty), 

 

Leaving without a deal would trigger the most seismic shift in trading conditions UK Automotive has ever experienced. Overnight, it would be hit by an immediate end to free and frictionless trade with its biggest market, an end to preferential trade with a further 70 countries worldwide, the imposition of billions of pounds of tariffs, severe disruption to supply chains and production, and lasting damage to the global reputation of the UK as an attractive and stable investment destination.

 

19 hours ago, puipuitom said:

From: Ebury <[email protected]>
Sent: vrijdag 11 december 2020 17:05

We refer to our previous letter to you in October 2020 about the adjustments made by Ebury with regard to the Brexit. In that letter we noted that, following the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the services provided to you by Ebury Partners UK Limited will be provided by Ebury Partners Belgium NV with effect from 15 December 2020 and your account would have been transferred to Ebury Partners Belgium NV.

I'd imagine that similar things are happening throughout the EU. 

 

I have British friends in Belgium who have been advised by, I think, Barclays and Lloyds that they will not be able to bank with them post-transition as financial 'passporting' will cease to exist for UK institutions and, presumably neither bank has a Belgium banking licence?

 

Probably only a relatively few Brits are affected by changes such as this, but it is  yet another consequence of Brexit. And for what? No Brexiter on TVF has been able to give any concrete examples of how UK nationals will be better off in 2021, especially in the event of a 'No deal'.

[herfiehandbag]

9 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

A visit to a Makro cheese counter will give you an idea the post Brexit UK food market that awaits UK customers.

Rubbish.

 

The Makro cheese counters have a very limited supply because the Thai market is pretty well limited to something that they can melt over french fries. Except for those ghastly American inspired snacks the Thais hardly eat the stuff at all. 

 

In fact, the New Zealand Cheddar available from Makro (also sold in Big C and the larger Tescos) is quite passable, I speak as someone who was born and brought up, and whose home was for many years some 25 miles from Cheddar!

 

England had: Yarg, Dorset Blue Vinny, Cheddar, Double Gloucester, Red Leicester, Stilton, Wensleydale, Lancashire; Wales had Caerphilly, and Scotland had some strange orange stuff which they claimed was Cheddar! We can make passable Camembert and Brie style cheeses, and of course goats cheeses. You will note that I left out Devon in my journey up the M5/M6 - this is because it's only real purpose is to connect Cornwall to the rest of England. We had them (I'm back on the cheeses) before we joined the EU, and there is no reason why we should not still have them after we leave. The same is true for the overwhelming mass of our industries and agriculture - even dare I suggest fishing? (That will keep the Janners happy!)

 

This frankly illustrates what is wrong with the whole debate about Brexit, both on TVF and other forums. Silly claims about the pros and cons, often based on very little real knowledge, coupled with  name calling on both sides. That is why I rarely get involved these days.

 

That off my chest, the patterns and rhythms of our industrial, agricultural and commercial life will of course be changed by departing the EU; but then they changed dramatically when we joined (ask New Zealand) and have hardly been static whilst we have been in the EU, much of our engineering and industrial base has moved elsewhere in the EU, where costs (wages) were lower and often help was given, by the EU, to facilitate that movement. We are a populous, reasonably well skilled nation, with a trading tradition and the sixth largest (by GDP) economy in the world. We are not the Isle of Wight, dependant on the outside world for everything except toilet rolls! Some things may be more expensive, some cheaper, there may be temporary shortages of certain commodities, until alternatives sources can be found. In the event that the EU (principally France I suppose) disrupts supplies, either as a matter of policy or because their farmers, fishermen or goldfish food manufacturers blockade the ports in protest at something or other (as happens virtually every year) then we will have to buy, and sell elsewhere, and if we do they will be the ultimate losers as we probably won't come back to them.

 

The "Island Monkeys" will manage - we always have done!

Edited December 12, 2020 by herfiehandbag
Having a pop at Devon, always a good tactic for a Somerset man!

[puipuitom]

10 hours ago, soalbundy said:

democracy or a full stomach and a roof over ones head......it's a difficult decision.

As Bertold Brecht wrote : "zuerst kommt das Fressen, danach die Moral"

[puipuitom]

9 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Firstly, I will correct you. it is British goods. As it would appear you are missing 3 countries who are part of the union that you overtly missed out.

 

Secondly, it will kick start British consumerism which is needed in every country.  Buy British.

 

As the world is a huge place and the EU will not be able to control what we sell and who too. We will be more competitive. All great stuff.

 

I think people will cope with Cheshire, Gloucestershire and other British Cheeses over brie.  As for drink, Proseco is overrated and French wine isn't worth putting on chips in my opinion.

 

There is a bright future ahead for the UK. As for the EU, I wouldn't say it is bright at all. The cracks are only just starting.

 

Food is just a 10%. The "make"and the "service" industry, like the City of London, are the real places, where the No Deal Brexit will blow horror.

[puipuitom]

9 hours ago, petermik said:

Bye bye to our ex European partners let us hope your arms are long enough to dig deep into your pockets to fill the very large hole our contributions made....we voted out..we want out

Do not worry, those GBP 8 billion net contribution ( HoC Lib) will be contributed from the import duty in just a few months. 

 

But the biggest blow will come thanks to import replacing production inside the EU

The UK’s largest beef, lamb, pork and chicken processors have warned that if Brexit preparedness efforts aren’t accelerated, trade volumes of products of animal origin could drop 50-75%.... Read more

Meat processors send ‘stark warning’ on Brexit: Trade volumes ‘could drop 50-75%’

[puipuitom]

6 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

I doubt many on here are  not suffering with their own currency already !

GBP down 0,46% in just one day, now € 1,0909. Comparing with 2016: € 1,35... quite some pensionario's must be hit very hard.

Edited December 12, 2020 by puipuitom

[puipuitom]

6 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I always found BMW's to be basic inside and overpriced. Japanese always gave more for the amount. Now i know why you are so bitter.

That's why you hardly see BMW's on the roads. Same with Mercedes. Bye-the-way: where are the equivalent British cars ? ? Oh, gone long time ago.

[puipuitom]

4 hours ago, SteveB2 said:

Interesting...

 

"The EU, taken as a whole is the UK's largest trading partner. In 2019, UK exports to the EU were £294 billion (43% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £374 billion (52% of all UK imports)"

Ref: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/ 

 

For those who have problems understanding math, this means the EU exports to the UK £120 billion pounds more than it imports.

 

Meaning that if the EU has to reverts to trading with the UK on WTO terms, the UK makes stands to make a massive windfall profit from the import duties caused by the trade imbalance. 

 

No wonder this whole Brexit conundrum is being dragged out as long as possible with futile negotiations - the import duties the EU has saved paying the UK over the last 4 years of trade imbalance easily run into tens of billions of pounds...

First look into which products are imported from UK into the EU and visa versa and how easy to replace from other origins. Then your laugh will disappear.

[Loiner]

9 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

First look into which products are imported from UK into the EU and visa versa and how easy to replace from other origins. Then your laugh will disappear.

All replaceable, often better and cheaper from the whole wide world for us now that we are not stuck inside the EU protectionist bubble.

[puipuitom]

4 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

The pound going down with a no deal being predicted is an obvious event.

 

Was 40 to £ now at 39 to £ , Oh!! dear I wish I had a balcony. ????????

A typical Brexiteer: a very short memory

 

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, herfiehandbag said:

Rubbish.

 

The Makro cheese counters have a very limited supply because the Thai market is pretty well limited to something that they can melt over french fries. Except for those ghastly American inspired snacks the Thais hardly eat the stuff at all. 

 

In fact, the New Zealand Cheddar available from Makro (also sold in Big C and the larger Tescos) is quite passable, I speak as someone who was born and brought up, and whose home was for many years some 25 miles from Cheddar!

 

England had: Yarg, Dorset Blue Vinny, Cheddar, Double Gloucester, Red Leicester, Stilton, Wensleydale, Lancashire; Wales had Caerphilly, and Scotland had some strange orange stuff which they claimed was Cheddar! We can make passable Camembert and Brie style cheeses, and of course goats cheeses. You will note that I left out Devon in my journey up the M5/M6 - this is because it's only real purpose is to connect Cornwall to the rest of England. We had them (I'm back on the cheeses) before we joined the EU, and there is no reason why we should not still have them after we leave. The same is true for the overwhelming mass of our industries and agriculture - even dare I suggest fishing? (That will keep the Janners happy!)

 

This frankly illustrates what is wrong with the whole debate about Brexit, both on TVF and other forums. Silly claims about the pros and cons, often based on very little real knowledge, coupled with  name calling on both sides. That is why I rarely get involved these days.

 

That off my chest, the patterns and rhythms of our industrial, agricultural and commercial life will of course be changed by departing the EU; but then they changed dramatically when we joined (ask New Zealand) and have hardly been static whilst we have been in the EU, much of our engineering and industrial base has moved elsewhere in the EU, where costs (wages) were lower and often help was given, by the EU, to facilitate that movement. We are a populous, reasonably well skilled nation, with a trading tradition and the sixth largest (by GDP) economy in the world. We are not the Isle of Wight, dependant on the outside world for everything except toilet rolls! Some things may be more expensive, some cheaper, there may be temporary shortages of certain commodities, until alternatives sources can be found. In the event that the EU (principally France I suppose) disrupts supplies, either as a matter of policy or because their farmers, fishermen or goldfish food manufacturers blockade the ports in protest at something or other (as happens virtually every year) then we will have to buy, and sell elsewhere, and if we do they will be the ultimate losers as we probably won't come back to them.

 

The "Island Monkeys" will manage - we always have done!

Good post enjoyed reading.

Problem I have with Brexit is this "There are levels of hurt we are prepared to accept" has always seemed totally unnecessary to me.

No-one seems to be able to quantify what tangible benefits Brexit will bring. We are going to go through a lot of hurt for no perceivable gain that I can see. In what way will Brexit improve the life of the average Brit? As far as I can see its going to make things worse for anyone who is not in the top ten percent.

When I ask all I usually get are buzzwords like "sovereignty" or meaningless slogans.

  

[ivor bigun]

35 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

A typical Brexiteer: a very short memory

 

 

Well anyone with any sense changed it when it was higher in case of a no deal ,????

[Gwen1234]

3 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Obvious troll is trolling. Best not to feed the troll.

Probably a Putinbot anyway ????.

Do you think Putin still has that video of Trump and his cough warm shower?

Putin bot ???? 

[Hi from France]

2 hours ago, Loiner said:

All replaceable, often better and cheaper from the whole wide world for us now that we are not stuck inside the EU protectionist bubble.

@Loiner have you got any source for this? Please understand I cannot just take you Brexiteer's word for it.

Edited December 12, 2020 by Hi from France

[CorpusChristie]

2 hours ago, puipuitom said:

A typical Brexiteer: a very short memory

 

 

   Does that graph show the Pound rising just after Brexit ?

Also, the Thai Baht is very strong against all currencies 

[NeoDinosaw]

7 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

And yet another way to look at it - 62.67% of the population did not back Brexit in 2016. Now, I suspect that value to be higher. 

Much higher

 

[NeoDinosaw]

7 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

You're losing it again with assuming that people thought that, they voted for OUT again for a second time. 

There was no second vote on Brexit

[NeoDinosaw]

5 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Now I am, as I have often stated, no financial expert.

 

However it is often suggested that the whole Brexit idea is essentially a scheme to allow a small number of well connected financiers, to make a lot of money, by buying a lot of Sterling when it's value is depressed. Now in order for them to make the massive profits which are suggested, Sterling will have to rise substantially in the relatively near future as a consequence of Brexit. I am confused...

They will buy lots of businesses as well as sterling at rock bottom prices. It will not be long before things get better again. Look at 2008 crash and how we recovered from that.  Just wait 5 or 6 years and they will be making a killing. Most of the profits coming into the City will be whist off to Caribbean islands immediately. 

[Loiner]

58 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

@Loiner have you got any source for this? Please understand I cannot just take you Brexiteer's word for it.

The rest of the world knows it and agrees with it. That’s why they are queuing up to make new and better deals with us. 

Whether you take my word for it makes no odds with me. You sound like your Mr. Macron: “You keep saying I can’t take your fish anymore, but please understand I cannot take your sovereign PM word for it.” 

Is this something the EU brainwashes all of you with?

[NeoDinosaw]

4 hours ago, puipuitom said:

As Bertold Brecht wrote : "zuerst kommt das Fressen, danach die Moral"

He wasn't very good at English then.

[Hi from France]

1 minute ago, Loiner said:

The rest of the world knows it and agrees with it. That’s why they are queuing up to make new and better deals with us. 

yet another claim that failed to be backed by actual data. How many FTA deals did the UK sign and what do they represent as a % of foreign trade? 

 

 

 

Like you previous claim

Quote

All replaceable, often better and cheaper from the whole wide world for us now that we are not stuck inside the EU protectionist bubble.

they are at odds with facts.

 

 

You know pragmatism, cold blood and the ability to evaluate a situation used to be British qualities.

 

[Hi from France]

from the "Torygraph"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/12/12/boris-johnson-branded-english-nationalist-former-tory-chairman/

 

Quote

In a scathing attack, Lord Patten of Barnes, who also served as Governor of Hong Kong, accused the Prime Minister of being on a “runaway train of English exceptionalism” in thinking the country would prosper under no deal. 

 

 

link to a description of the “cod wars” with Iceland

Quote

An additional patrol ship will also join three current in deployment to stop and potentially impound EU fishing vessels if they illegally enter the exclusive economic zone which extends up to 200 nautical miles from shore. 

The move has been likened to the “cod wars” with Iceland in the 1970s when Britain deployed 22 frigates to protect the fishing fleet

 

 

Quote

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Lord Patten said: "What we're seeing is Boris Johnson on this runaway train of English exceptionalism and heaven knows where it is going to take us in the end.

"I want the best for my country, I fear for what's happening at the moment and I fear for our reputation around the world, I fear for what will happen economically.

 

Quote

"I hope that I'm wrong to feel so depressed about the outlook but I don't think that Mr Johnson is a Conservative, I think he is an English nationalist.

 

Quote

"And all the things that Conservatives used to believe in - like standing up for the Union, like not attacking our institutions, like the judges, like believing in international co-operation - seem to have gone out of the window."

 

 

Quote

Echoing his concerns, Mr Ellwood said: “We’re just facing the undignified prospect now of our overstretched Royal Navy squaring up to a close Nato ally over fishing rights when beneath the surface we’re witnessing the presence of Russian drone activity and sub-service activity. 

 

Quote

“Our adversaries must be really enjoying this blue on blue. This isn’t Elizabethan times anymore, this is Global Britain. We need to be raising the bar much, much higher than this. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Scott

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, Loiner said:

All replaceable, often better and cheaper from the whole wide world for us now that we are not stuck inside the EU protectionist bubble.

Tell that to manufacturers who depend on supply chains and just in time delivery.

[Susco]

12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Tell that to manufacturers who depend on supply chains and just in time delivery.

 

You are arguing with people who left the UK decades ago for obvious reasons, and now are telling everyone how good it gonna be there starting next year.

 

You think they all plan to move back come January 1st?

 

Well many actually may, as they can no longer survive in Thailand on a pension, paid out in Mickey Mouse money, and since foreigners are not entitled to food stamps when they live abroad, that might be the one solution.