New Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand still in early stages, expert warns

[Jonathan Fairfield]

New Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand still in early stages, expert warns

 

Dr Yong Poovorawan

 

The current Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand was still in its early stages, a medical expert warned, adding many infected people would have little symptoms or be asymptomatic so they could spread the infection.

 

Dr Yong Poovorawan, head of the Centre of Excellence in Clinical Virology at Chulalongkorn's Faculty of Medicine, said that the cycle threshold in the outbreak is low, meaning asymptomatic patients or those with little symptoms could spread the virus very well.

 

All suspects now need to test for the virus with RT-PCR method, including those without symptoms.

 

The government also needs to hasten proactive search in the outbreak areas as quickly as possible, while private hospitals should lower testing price.

 

Currently, the vaccine is registered in the country of manufacture, both normal or emergency vaccine. There are already six types, hoping that they will be used soon, Dr Yong said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30400294?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-12-27

 

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[dinsdale]

Wow! I always wonder when expert is in the headline but this bloke seems to be saying what needs to happen and I agree (not sure about the testing method RT-PCR but testing is good). Same thing 9 months ago and the numbers would look a lot different. Pitty is he's talking sense in a country run by morons. 

Private hospitals should lower prices. Well obviously it should be free and SUBsidised by the govt who should pay the MOONey.

Edited December 27, 2020 by dinsdale

[onebir]

12 minutes ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Dr Yong Poovorawan, head of the Centre of Excellence in Clinical Virology at Chulalongkorn's Faculty of Medicine, said that the cycle threshold in the outbreak is low, meaning asymptomatic patients or those with little symptoms could spread the virus very well.

Seems garbled to me: "The CT value is the number of cycles necessary to spot the virus. PCR machines stop running at that point.... A test that registers a positive result after 12 rounds, for a CT value of 12, starts out with more than 10 million times as much viral genetic material as a sample with a CT value of 35."

 

If cycle threshold in the outbreak  means the mean cycle threshold of the people who've testing positive, that being low implies high viral loads. ie they're unlikely to be asymptomatic, and conversely more likely to spread the virus.

 

[mfd101]

The obvious question is: So what's the government doing about acquiring one or more of the vaccines in the numbers required to do at least 50% of the total Thai population over the next 12-18 months?

 

Not a word have I heard.

 

Meanwhile the Western countries have all locked in contracts in the millions for various combinations of vaccines and are getting under way with their highest-priority recipients.

 

A few weeks ago I was thankful to be living in Thailand rather than Oz, but I'm not so sure I'll be thinking like that in another 2 or 3 months ...

[dinsdale]

Just now, onebir said:

Seems garbled to me: "The CT value is the number of cycles necessary to spot the virus. PCR machines stop running at that point.... A test that registers a positive result after 12 rounds, for a CT value of 12, starts out with more than 10 million times as much viral genetic material as a sample with a CT value of 35."

 

If cycle threshold in the outbreak  means the mean cycle threshold of the people who've testing positive, that being low implies high viral loads. ie they're unlikely to be asymptomatic, and conversely more likely to spread the virus.

 

Try and read it with an eye to second language.

 

 

[onebir]

5 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Try and read it with an eye to second language.

Sorry, given low CT = high viral load, I just can't figure out how the logic could make sense...

[Moonlover]

17 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

The obvious question is: So what's the government doing about acquiring one or more of the vaccines in the numbers required to do at least 50% of the total Thai population over the next 12-18 months?

 

Not a word have I heard.

You have now.

 

 

[dinsdale]

21 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

The obvious question is: So what's the government doing about acquiring one or more of the vaccines in the numbers required to do at least 50% of the total Thai population over the next 12-18 months?

 

Not a word have I heard.

 

Meanwhile the Western countries have all locked in contracts in the millions for various combinations of vaccines and are getting under way with their highest-priority recipients.

 

A few weeks ago I was thankful to be living in Thailand rather than Oz, but I'm not so sure I'll be thinking like that in another 2 or 3 months ...

Aus aggressively tests. Most developed nations do. How they handle the virus is different. I think Aus has done ok but with some MAJOR f..<k ups. Johnson fk>..d up so did Trump and lots of others but at least the testing regime is big which relects the numbers. Not like here. I live in Samut Sakhon but in a different amphur to the seafood market but still only 16 km away. No testing stations here. All markets in Samut Sakhon get their seafood from the markets in muang. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by dinsdale

[mfd101]

17 minutes ago, Moonlover said:

You have now.

 

 

Well, that begins to look like progress for Thailand. There will be multiple devils in multiple details over the next many months. It will be fascinating to watch matters evolve here, and eventually (rather late in the piece I suspect) participate.

[Natai Beach]

53 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Wow! I always wonder when expert is in the headline but this bloke seems to be saying what needs to happen and I agree (not sure about the testing method RT-PCR but testing is good). Same thing 9 months ago and the numbers would look a lot different. Pitty is he's talking sense in a country run by morons. 

Private hospitals should lower prices. Well obviously it should be free and SUBsidised by the govt who should pay the MOONey.

I cancelled my New Year trip up north, lost the money on the flights, got a refund on the hire car and hadn’t booked the hotel yet. Hoping they will lockdown then I will get the flights refunded.
 

I have watched Europe and the USA all year and thought they were plain stupid for plane travel so it would also be stupid for me to do it now even though I was reluctant to cancel. I was also concerned about getting stuck up north if they locked down when I was there.
 

IMO they should lockdown over NEw Year. Most people have a week off anyway, just make them stay where they are, like they did at Songkran. That worked. There is more covid now in Thailand and the world than back then. If I was in charge I would call a two week lockdown tomorrow and then reassess. Hopefully nip it in the bud.

The problem with New Year is families and friends get crammed in together in the same car to travel. Only one has to have it, then it will spread to everyone in the car during the long drive.Then they all get out at the destination  and visit their various friends and families and it will spread further. Then they head back to work and further spread it. And all the oldies in the village will have it also. 

 

To beat covid you have to social distance, not socialise.

 

i hope I am wrong but it could really be a disaster. Stupid to risk it for a holiday. Once numbers get past a certain level it will be impossible to eliminate like they did last time, and it will just be lockdown after lockdown just trying to contain it like in Europe and failing miserably.
Better to go hard, go fast IMO. 
 

It wasn’t Prayuts idea to lockdown the first time, he was pressured into it. I hope they pressure him again but time is running out.

[ftpjtm]

21 minutes ago, Moonlover said:

You have now.

 

 

Well isn't that nice. Thailand is going with the one that's proven least effective so far, and is lagging behind others due to screw ups in testing. 

 

Meanwhile they're not approving the ones the western world are already administering. I suppose to maintain maximum market share for the local one?

 

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

1 hour ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Dr. Yong Poovorawan...said that the cycle threshold in the outbreak is low, meaning asymptomatic patients or those with little symptoms could spread the virus very well.

That's why everyone needs to wear masks...you could be asymptomatic but shedding virus, which mask are up to 99% effective in stopping. Less virus in the air = less new infections and spread.

[Natai Beach]

57 minutes ago, ftpjtm said:

Meanwhile they're not approving the ones the western world are already administering. I suppose to maintain maximum market share for the local one?

 

The vaccines in the west have been rushed through due to thousands dying daily. 
Thailand doesn’t have that problem with only 3 deaths in the last six months.

 

So they will wait three months, let the desperate westerners be the guinea pigs, to see if there are any adverse consequences, before taking a very well tested vaccine themselves. 
 

Very smart the Thais. 
 

If there is a resumption of deaths they will speed it up. If not, no need.
Safety First. 

[ftpjtm]

30 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

 

The vaccines in the west have been rushed through due to thousands dying daily. 
Thailand doesn’t have that problem with only 3 deaths in the last six months.

 

So they will wait three months, let the desperate westerners be the guinea pigs, to see if there are any adverse consequences, before taking a very well tested vaccine themselves. 
 

Very smart the Thais. 
 

If there is a resumption of deaths they will speed it up. If not, no need.
Safety First. 

Sorry, I don't see the upside to forbidding those willing to pay for a vaccine which has been approved by most Western medical testing agencies from receiving the vaccine in Thailand. Unless protecting the interests of Siam Bioscience is more important than protecting Thai residents. 

 

Do you think the Thais will wait 3 months after the AstraZeneca/Siam Bioscience vaccine is approved by western agencies before approving it for safety sake? Not a chance. 

 

They're forbidding the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines from being used for one reason only, to protect the interests of Siam Bioscience. Research who is the financial institution backing SB.

Edited December 27, 2020 by ftpjtm

[RR2020]

Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine "will" be approved this coming week in the UK, all being well, and the UK will begin using it from 4th January 2021.

 

This is the same one as purchased by Thailand.

 

Covid-19 vaccine: Latest updates on Oxford, Moderna and Pfizer breakthroughs - and who will get it first? (telegraph.co.uk)

 

.

[RR2020]

Its also a "not for profit" vaccine.

 

Moderna and Pfizer are being sold to make profit.

 

Oxford/AZ is being sold with no profit  - making it affordable to more countries and also it does not require the extreme cold temperatures of Pfizer and Moderna, making it very easy to roll out, especially in countries with poor logistics for super cold storage.

[ftpjtm]

21 minutes ago, RR2020 said:

Its also a "not for profit" vaccine.

 

Moderna and Pfizer are being sold to make profit.

 

Oxford/AZ is being sold with no profit  - making it affordable to more countries and also it does not require the extreme cold temperatures of Pfizer and Moderna, making it very easy to roll out, especially in countries with poor logistics for super cold storage.

So Siam Bioscience is going to produce 200 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, with the bulk for export. Without making any profit. 

 

If they're not making profit on the exports, why not keep 70 million doses in Thailand to vaccinate all Thais?

 

https://www.thailand-business-news.com/health/82121-thai-firm-to-produce-200-million-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine.html

 

[asiacurious]

 

2 hours ago, ftpjtm said:

Well isn't that nice. Thailand is going with the one that's proven least effective so far, and is lagging behind others due to screw ups in testing. 

 

 

Perhaps there are good reasons why they are going with one vaccine over another?  One thought that comes to mind....

 

 

Quote

Right now, Pfizer says its vaccine needs to be kept at minus 70 degrees Celsius and can last in a specialty freezer for up to six months. The specialty shippers can hold up to five "pizza box" trays of vials and be refreshed with dry ice every five days for up to 15 days to keep the vaccine at the right frozen temperature.

 

Even that presents challenges, though — a Pfizer scientist told a CDC advisory council in August that it's not supposed to be opened more than twice a day and needs to be closed within one minute of opening. Once it's thawed, the vaccine can be refrigerated for five days.

 

Moderna says its vaccine candidate is stable at regular freezer temperature — minus 20 degrees Celsius — for up to six months, and after thawing it can last in the refrigerator for 30 days. It can also be kept at room temperature for up to 12 hours. This, explains Kristensen, is useful for health care workers in the field, "because now the vaccine doesn't need to go in and out of the refrigerator each time it's administered."

 

Source - NPR.org

 

         VS.

 

Quote

 

AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine candidate, dubbed AZD1222, can be stored and transported at normal refrigerated temps of 2 degrees to 8 degrees Celsius (36 degrees to 46 degrees Fahrenheit) for at least six months and can be administered in "existing healthcare settings," giving the shot a major logistics leg up over a leading mRNA-based competitor that requires ultra-cold storage. 

The ability to effectively distribute AstraZeneca's vaccine around the world could make a big difference in how the future market for COVID-19 shots shakes out. 

 

Source - FiercePharma.com

 

 

 

 

Also...

 

1 hour ago, ftpjtm said:

Sorry, I don't see the upside to forbidding those willing to pay for a vaccine which has been approved by most Western medical testing agencies from receiving the vaccine in Thailand. Unless protecting the interests of Siam Bioscience is more important than protecting Thai residents. 

 

 

Those who can afford to pay are always able to cut to the front of the line.  You'll here those who feel entitled and who are privileged say, "Well, that's life!"  But sometimes even those who can pay should have to wait in line with everyone else.

 

Not a single person in Thailand should receive a vaccine until after front line workers have received it.  Health care workers and people who have to interact with others who are sick or in quarantine should be vaccinated first, which will not only help to protect these workers but the rest of the country as well.

[RichardColeman]

3 hours ago, asiacurious said:

Not a single person in Thailand should receive a vaccine until after front line workers have received it.  Health care workers and people who have to interact with others who are sick or in quarantine should be vaccinated first, which will not only help to protect these workers but the rest of the country as well.

About as much chance of that as Thailand being declared the world Space Race Hub 

[bodga]

6 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

Very smart the Thais.

????

[Albert Zweistein]

8 hours ago, ftpjtm said:

Well isn't that nice. Thailand is going with the one that's proven least effective so far, and is lagging behind others due to screw ups in testing. 

 

Meanwhile they're not approving the ones the western world are already administering. I suppose to maintain maximum market share for the local one?

 

 

Or to collect some brown enveloppes first ?

[Jeffr2]

6 hours ago, RR2020 said:

Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine "will" be approved this coming week in the UK, all being well, and the UK will begin using it from 4th January 2021.

 

This is the same one as purchased by Thailand.

 

Covid-19 vaccine: Latest updates on Oxford, Moderna and Pfizer breakthroughs - and who will get it first? (telegraph.co.uk)

 

Excellent article.  Thanks for sharing.

[FarFlungFalang]

10 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

 

All suspects now need to test for the virus with RT-PCR method, including those without symptoms.

Everyone here is a suspect at least they are to this guy.

[NRGF]

9 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

I cancelled my New Year trip up north, lost the money on the flights, got a refund on the hire car and hadn’t booked the hotel yet. Hoping they will lockdown then I will get the flights refunded.
 

I have watched Europe and the USA all year and thought they were plain stupid for plane travel so it would also be stupid for me to do it now even though I was reluctant to cancel. I was also concerned about getting stuck up north if they locked down when I was there.
 

IMO they should lockdown over NEw Year. Most people have a week off anyway, just make them stay where they are, like they did at Songkran. That worked. There is more covid now in Thailand and the world than back then. If I was in charge I would call a two week lockdown tomorrow and then reassess. Hopefully nip it in the bud.

The problem with New Year is families and friends get crammed in together in the same car to travel. Only one has to have it, then it will spread to everyone in the car during the long drive.Then they all get out at the destination  and visit their various friends and families and it will spread further. Then they head back to work and further spread it. And all the oldies in the village will have it also. 

 

To beat covid you have to social distance, not socialise.

 

i hope I am wrong but it could really be a disaster. Stupid to risk it for a holiday. Once numbers get past a certain level it will be impossible to eliminate like they did last time, and it will just be lockdown after lockdown just trying to contain it like in Europe and failing miserably.
Better to go hard, go fast IMO. 
 

It wasn’t Prayuts idea to lockdown the first time, he was pressured into it. I hope they pressure him again but time is running out.

Should have had total lockdown a week or more ago, maybe too late already.

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, NRGF said:

Should have had total lockdown a week or more ago, maybe too late already.

they've said they don't want to do a full lock down now.  Just targeted ones.  We're starting to see hints of that already with one province in lock down.

[Rocking Robert]

10 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

I cancelled my New Year trip up north, lost the money on the flights, got a refund on the hire car and hadn’t booked the hotel yet. Hoping they will lockdown then I will get the flights refunded.
 

I have watched Europe and the USA all year and thought they were plain stupid for plane travel so it would also be stupid for me to do it now even though I was reluctant to cancel. I was also concerned about getting stuck up north if they locked down when I was there.
 

IMO they should lockdown over NEw Year. Most people have a week off anyway, just make them stay where they are, like they did at Songkran. That worked. There is more covid now in Thailand and the world than back then. If I was in charge I would call a two week lockdown tomorrow and then reassess. Hopefully nip it in the bud.

The problem with New Year is families and friends get crammed in together in the same car to travel. Only one has to have it, then it will spread to everyone in the car during the long drive.Then they all get out at the destination  and visit their various friends and families and it will spread further. Then they head back to work and further spread it. And all the oldies in the village will have it also. 

 

To beat covid you have to social distance, not socialise.

 

i hope I am wrong but it could really be a disaster. Stupid to risk it for a holiday. Once numbers get past a certain level it will be impossible to eliminate like they did last time, and it will just be lockdown after lockdown just trying to contain it like in Europe and failing miserably.
Better to go hard, go fast IMO. 
 

It wasn’t Prayuts idea to lockdown the first time, he was pressured into it. I hope they pressure him again but time is running out.

Well they should put you in charge

[mehrdad]

Waiting for long new year’s long holidays and see the effects 

[GroveHillWanderer]

9 hours ago, ftpjtm said:

They're forbidding the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines from being used for one reason only, to protect the interests of Siam Bioscience. Research who is the financial institution backing SB.

Where are you getting this from? No coronavirus vaccines have been forbidden from being used in Thailand. A hospital has been banned from advertising a vaccine for sale, because no vaccine has been approved for use yet by the Thai authorities.

 

That's not the same thing as banning the vaccines themselves.

[Jiggo]

10 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

That's why everyone needs to wear masks...you could be asymptomatic but shedding virus, which mask are up to 99% effective in stopping. Less virus in the air = less new infections and spread.

Excuse me but where did you find the 99% in stopping passing the virus, and what type of facemask, as most that you see worn in public don't adhere to health standards.  

[Bender Rodriguez]

after 10 months of no magical infection in thailand, don't you think we might just all be positive ???