Good age/km for used bike

[theWTD]

I'm looking to pick up a used NMAX.  Any guidelines or thoughts on how old / how many KM a bike has before it starts showing age?  There are a lot of 2016/25000km bikes, is it worth paying up for a 2018?

[papa al]

Varies.

2018 more desirable than 2016.

Prefer farang owned as farang can afford to change oil.

[theWTD]

1 hour ago, papa al said:

Varies.

2018 more desirable than 2016.

Prefer farang owned as farang can afford to change oil.

Hey Papa, I saw your previous post about depreciation.  I ran a regression on a bunch of NMAX from 2015-2019 and found it to be:

 

Per Year (linear): -2500B

Per KM: -.34B/km

 

I assume the initial 20% kicker already was taken out.

 

Here's the average prices I found.  2018 is probably the sweet spot but I think if I can find a 2019 w under 10000km for about 55000B that's what I'm going to buy.  Good tip on the Falang owner for oil changes. 

 

2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
38071	42378	49084	52316	57533

 

Looks like they lost about 5000/year no matter which year they are so might as well get the newest you can afford as presumably maintenance will be less.

[guzzi850m2]

All the scooters in the household over the years have with one exception been bought new.

 

Taking a brand new scooter out of the show room is just a nice feeling and now it's up to you how you threat it.

 

Yes some Thais ride them until they brake but not all, thankfully they are very cheap to fix if you get a lemon.

 

On all our scooters we maintained the service handbook so the potentially new buyer can see the service history but keep in mind they are not computerized like cars are, so the service book can be written by the owner and nobody can tell. 

[theWTD]

I did a bit more work on my model, depreciation really isn't linear, so please don't consider this accurate. Actual depreciation was a bit higher in the second year  (2019 to 2018) when i added some more data.  But its close enough, as it seems from the mileage people drive it more the first year as well. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by theWTD

[eisfeld]

kudos to theWTD for taking a data driven approach. Refreshing to see that.

 

Depreciation isn't linear because there are model refreshes. When an updated version comes out, the old model takes a hit in value. How much of course depends on the changes, sometimes it's just bold new colors so not much at all.

 

When going for second hand, I'd first identify the version of the model that I'm looking for and then hunt for a deal in that year range. The next step then is to check who the owner is and if he has kept the bike well maintained. Tires, dirt in the harder to reach places, the service book etc. Asking simple questions like "When do you service the bike?"  can reveal if the owner knows how the bike is supposed to be maintained or not.

 

Milage by itself doesn't say all too much. It should just not be excessive. A well maintained high milage bike can be in better shape than a low milage badly maintained bike. A modern japanese engine should easily get into 6 digit km if cared for.

[guzzi850m2]

1 hour ago, eisfeld said:

kudos to theWTD for taking a data driven approach. Refreshing to see that.

 

Depreciation isn't linear because there are model refreshes. When an updated version comes out, the old model takes a hit in value. How much of course depends on the changes, sometimes it's just bold new colors so not much at all.

 

When going for second hand, I'd first identify the version of the model that I'm looking for and then hunt for a deal in that year range. The next step then is to check who the owner is and if he has kept the bike well maintained. Tires, dirt in the harder to reach places, the service book etc. Asking simple questions like "When do you service the bike?"  can reveal if the owner knows how the bike is supposed to be maintained or not.

 

Milage by itself doesn't say all too much. It should just not be excessive. A well maintained high milage bike can be in better shape than a low milage badly maintained bike. A modern japanese engine should easily get into 6 digit km if cared for.

Well said.

 

I noticed that many young Thais here in Pattaya while riding on Sukhumvit road; they go like a bat out of hell on their souped up scooters, +120km/h is not usual, super thin wheels, exhaust and something in the engine is modified, obviously  not something to buy unless this is your thing? 

I never modify my own scooters unless it makes it safer (upgrade suspension) or I have a use for it (Top box, seat net, smart phone holder) and as for making it faster, no thanks, have a big bike if I want power.

 

If you go full throttle a lot it will wear the engine components quite quickly, like piston rings (perhaps even piston & cylinder) but not very expensive to fix.

 

My 25k km pcx have never been opened in the engine and I sometimes go full speed just to give it a good blow out and it still performs like it did when new. The time on full throttle have been less than 1%, conditions where I ride it is not suitable for it, safely.

[Agusts]

It's good to have a range of approximate price for the year/mileage of the bike, but I found there is nothing like actually see the bike and test ride it, some bikes of same year and mileage could be so different and a good condition one could worth 20% more, easily...

 

As for farang owners it does not apply to Phuket at all, many here have rental shops and give you a badly treated ex-rental bike...!

 

So don't just stick with your average price range, go and see and test ride..., then decide.

 

[jackdd]

25k kms is low, if there are many 4 years old bikes with this I would be more concerned that it might be easy to change the odometer reading on them.

Most people choose a bike like a PCX or an NMAX because they use it for more than just going to the next 7/11.

Even I ride 10k per year on my small bike, I don't even have any job to which i would commute, and I have a big bike for traveling.

 

Sure some farangs don't take care of their bike and some Thais take care of their bike very well, but on average i think the farang bike has been better serviced, so i would consider a farang owner a plus.

I also don't think rental bikes are super bad. I would of course pay some special attention as to if the handlebars and forks are straight, because they have probably been dropped a few times. But rental bikes are usually serviced, because a break down of the bike would means they lose money. Due to the usual scratches on the plastics from the drops you can often get them relatively cheap. If a spotless bike is important then a rental bike is of course out.

[papa al]

Good values can be had with different aged bikes.

A 1(or 2)-y/o bike bike, normal/low odo reading, is a good bet.

Big initial depreciation is behind.

In '12 papa bought the  '11 NouvoSX w/1600km for B35K; 40% off new price.

Pristine, farang-owned, with up-graded shocks and tires.

Some other bling.

13,000 km now.

Could maybe sell for B18-20K, with rack, box, seat mesh.

So ~2000baht per year (2.7baht /km) depreciation.

Will keep indefinitely tho.

Prolly just give it away eventually.

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by papa al

[teacherclaire]

8 hours ago, papa al said:

Varies.

2018 more desirable than 2016.

Prefer farang owned as farang can afford to change oil.

Many Farang even think about valve adjustment and other services.

 

OP, if you can, a compression test tells you quite a lot. 

 

   I can check mine in ten minutes. 

[Henryford]

I recently bought a s/h Aerox, was only 9 months old with 5000 kms. Cost 55,000 compared to new @ 80,000. That's about the best compromise if you can't afford to buy new. A buyer's market now so many good deals around.

[ChakaKhan]

On 12/29/2020 at 7:39 AM, Agusts said:

nothing like actually see the bike and test ride it, some bikes of same year and mileage could be so different and a good condition one could worth 20% more, easily...

Same thought can be applied when shopping for a life partner   ????

[Kwasaki]

Don't matter what age a scoot engine is easy to fix and repair to new condition if you want to.