The Future for Travellers?

[Mike E]

12 hours ago, VBF said:

But this thread is about travellers, not people currently in Thailand.

 

I'm in UK, longing to go to Thailand again - i have one problem with the vaccine - I can't get it today and need to wait my turn!

The more a country vaccinates its people, and the more evidence (hopefully) emerges to show vaccinations assist in at least  reducing transmission, the sooner countries will start to relax their restrictions.

Personally, i would love a Covid vaccine stamp to be added to all my other vaccines in my yellow book, alongside Yellow Fever, Polio, Smallpox, Tetanus etc etc

If that helped me to travel, what's not to like?

Maybe you missed it, but my post was in response to a post by sammieuk1,  who I quoted and according to his profile, lives in Thailand.

[cormanr7]

6 hours ago, CygnusX1 said:

Some expert virologists think that there’s no proof that any of the vaccines will actually prevent people from catching and transmitting the virus, but will only reduce the severity of symptoms. If that’s the case, and I hope it’s not, then vaccinated people could conceivably be more likely to transmit the virus, as they’d be more likely to have only mild symptoms, and hence less likely to self isolate.

The current vaccines were developed to reduce strain on health services by reducing the number of people getting severely sick or dying. They were not developed with the primary aim to reduce transmissibility, though this will likely occur to some extent by having reduced viral loads in vaccinated groups. This may be offset by more 'risky' behaviour by those who have received jabs. What potentially could happen with various degrees in reduction of transmission following vaccination is shown in some models (and they are just that, forward looking models often have very poor accuracy especially with COVID) is depicted here: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13822635/lockdown-can-lifted-if-covid-vaccine-stops-transmission-sage/

Now people are going to shout that the Sun is useless as a 'reliable' source but they just reproduce figures from a modelling group. So take it as a piece of information that covers one possible scenario.

[TSF]

2 hours ago, Skypirate said:

Covid positive in OCT 2020

4 Covid neg tests since then

2 Vaccine injections (MOD)

 

I have yet to see any local or international travel restrictions relaxed on my behalf.  However, I am anxiously awaiting any progress on it.  If and when that evolves, I am somewhat intrigued has how it will be administered.  Certainly a local immunization card won't be accepted.

 

You're one of the first, many will follow in the months ahead and then more attention to details will be done on the international travel restrictions for vaccinated people...it'll come soon. As already discussed in this thread a likely way to provide proof is for hospitals/doctors to add a persons vaccination record to their immigration files online, or PP chips. That will prevent the use of fake documents (like Khao San Road covid vax certificates) So when checking in at airports your covid vax details are there for check in and Imm staff to access and confirm. In many countries there could also be photo ID cards. When I did my Thai DL a couple years ago, they had a big printing machine in the office, they took my photo and a couple minutes later a card came out with my photo, and assorted details printed on it. 

[millymoopoo]

6 hours ago, CygnusX1 said:

Some expert virologists think that there’s no proof that any of the vaccines will actually prevent people from catching and transmitting the virus, but will only reduce the severity of symptoms.

From what I've heard that is exactly the case, immunisation does not prevent the virus from infecting you, the antibodies produced by your immune system at the prompting of the vaccine only attack the virus once you've got it.

Thus preventing the virus from multiplying and causing (in many cases) horrendous respiratory problems.

When infected after immunisation you are still contagious, until such time as your immune system has fought of the invaders.

Days.?

Weeks.?

Just as infectious as an non-immunised person.

[TSF]

10 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

Some countries are opposed to 'Vaccine' passport - No support in USA and  Canada  PM Trudeau already say he opposes because it is discriminatory. 2 countries who have mismanaged their pandemic response, so I am not surprised.

 

What do you mean, not "getting their share"?  These countries had every opportunity to make pre-orders for vaccine like other countries did. Oxford vaccine is a cheap as it gets and India will be manufacturing for the poor countries. How many of these countries put up some money to prepare? Instead of building up armies and looting their treasuries, they could have invested a small sum in  preparation or at least reserving/ordering vaccine for health care workers. What's not right is trying to blame others for selfish mismanagement.

I read that Thailand has been offered the license for AZ and Thailand has an excellent producing facility and Oxford suggested that Thailand has the capabilities to produce enough vaccine for their own needs and could also supply some of the neighboring countries with the AZ. Whether Thailand gives a rats about helping out Burma, Lao, Cambodia is another thing altogether.

[Jeffr2]

4 minutes ago, TSF said:

I read that Thailand has been offered the license for AZ and Thailand has an excellent producing facility and Oxford suggested that Thailand has the capabilities to produce enough vaccine for their own needs and could also supply some of the neighboring countries with the AZ. Whether Thailand gives a rats about helping out Burma, Lao, Cambodia is another thing altogether.

If I'm not mistaken, the production facility here has never made vaccinations before....maybe someone with more knowledge can help here?

[millymoopoo]

10 hours ago, shdmn said:

Some countries are opposed to 'Vaccine' passport - No support in USA and  Canada  PM Trudeau already say he opposes because it is discriminatory.

I am wondering if there is a political line emerging here, A conservative/socialist line.

USA, Canada, UK, France, Brazil, Netherlands, India, Austria, all conservative governments with weak inconsistent, half hearted, control based covid responses. Perhaps less motivated due to economic concerns. Look where they are now.!

On the other hand socialists, New Zealand and most of the Australian states (not the federal government) have pursued an elimination agenda, Western Australia has had no community transmission for 9 months, Queensland about 3 in the last few months, Northern Territory 1 or 2 in the last 6 months and New Zealand has just found 1 case after about 5 months clear.
So for people in these places life is normal with the exception of no international travel allowed.
Their economies are in a good state, some growing, life is normal, no lockdown, no restrictions, people can go about their normal routine.

Even Victoria Australia (another socialist government) had 720 covid cases in August, UK had 756 at the same time, they locked down and since the end of October Victoria has recorded 3 new cases, how many new cases and how many have died in UK since then.

Whilst this suggests how poor some countries response has been it also suggests how important (to some countries) a covid vaccination passport will be,

This will be so, reluctant countries will run out of excuses and eventually will toe the line, especially when their citizens are denied entry to other countries through lack of a vaccination certificate/passport.

 

[CygnusX1]

43 minutes ago, millymoopoo said:

I am wondering if there is a political line emerging here, A conservative/socialist line.

Except that the Australian state of NSW, with a conservative government, has also seen very few cases of the China virus, and its declared suppression strategy has really amounted to an eradication strategy. Currently no local transmission for a week, after a couple of small outbreaks from hotel quarantine.

The big difference between the UK and Victoria is that Australia’s borders have been tightly shut since nearly the start of the pandemic, which I don’t think was the case for the UK back in August. It was also more feasible for the single state of Victoria to impose an economically damaging lockdown for months, as its economy could be kept afloat by the rest of Australia.

[simon43]

4 hours ago, jobsworth said:

This vaccination is unlike any other.

It is not just the dead virus so as to produce antibodies.

It modifies your DNA and is the first of a whole new line of treatments.

We don't know what much of our DNA does.

 

<deleted> man, don't spread such rubbish!!  It doesn't modify your DNA.  Unlike previous kinds of vaccine, the mRNA vaccines don't use inactive viruses to elicit an immune response from your body.  They use a modified protein that looks like the receptors of the Covid virus.  So your immune system thinks there is a Covid virus in your body, but actually there is no virus, either active or inactive.  In principle, it is safer than using an actual inactive virus - your immune system simply recognises each virus from the shape of the protein (each virus has a different 'lock and key' shape).

 

Additionally, no vaccine stops you getting a virus, whether it be covid-19 or another virus.  It simply means that your immune system is ready to 'fight' this pathogen, since it's already had a chance to build up antibodies against that particular virus, because the immune system is 'fooled' by the vaccine into thinking that an active pathogen has entered your body.

Edited January 25, 2021 by simon43

[NoshowJones]

18 hours ago, Mike E said:

 

Well, covid is pretty darn rare if you're here in Thailand.  Now I don't know what the percentage of bad reactions to the vaccine are but lets say they are a very small half of a percent.   If 70,000,000 people get vaccinated, that will be about 35,000 bad reactions.  Significantly higher than the 13,000 cases so far and 72 deaths.  As long as cases stay as low as they've been here, I'm perfectly happy if the government insists on vaccinating all citizens first before they decide to get around to farang.

As long as no one makes a profit from it, and I mean no one.

[superal]

1 hour ago, millymoopoo said:

I am wondering if there is a political line emerging here, A conservative/socialist line.

USA, Canada, UK, France, Brazil, Netherlands, India, Austria, all conservative governments with weak inconsistent, half hearted, control based covid responses. Perhaps less motivated due to economic concerns. Look where they are now.!

On the other hand socialists, New Zealand and most of the Australian states (not the federal government) have pursued an elimination agenda, Western Australia has had no community transmission for 9 months, Queensland about 3 in the last few months, Northern Territory 1 or 2 in the last 6 months and New Zealand has just found 1 case after about 5 months clear.
So for people in these places life is normal with the exception of no international travel allowed.
Their economies are in a good state, some growing, life is normal, no lockdown, no restrictions, people can go about their normal routine.

Even Victoria Australia (another socialist government) had 720 covid cases in August, UK had 756 at the same time, they locked down and since the end of October Victoria has recorded 3 new cases, how many new cases and how many have died in UK since then.

Whilst this suggests how poor some countries response has been it also suggests how important (to some countries) a covid vaccination passport will be,

This will be so, reluctant countries will run out of excuses and eventually will toe the line, especially when their citizens are denied entry to other countries through lack of a vaccination certificate/passport.

 

A vacc stamp in your passport at the time of vaccination and along with unique traceability with global access could provide the " proof of inoculation " . However one foolproof action could be a finger <deleted> blood test at the point of departure  ( 30 minute turnaround ) coupled with passport info  .Gotta find a simple solution to open up the world soon . Global economies may be able to borrow their way out of this mess in the short time but any prolonged event could end up with daily living ,working routines , recreation activities and entertainment venues  to be ways of the past . 

[TSF]

23 minutes ago, superal said:

A vacc stamp in your passport at the time of vaccination and along with unique traceability with global access could provide the " proof of inoculation " . However one foolproof action could be a finger <deleted> blood test at the point of departure  ( 30 minute turnaround ) coupled with passport info  .Gotta find a simple solution to open up the world soon . Global economies may be able to borrow their way out of this mess in the short time but any prolonged event could end up with daily living ,working routines , recreation activities and entertainment venues  to be ways of the past . 

For now proof of vaccination + a PCR test not less than 72 hours before departure, is as good as it's gonna get. If every single human being on the plane and at all airports has been vaccinated and tested, then that's as safe as anyone can expect. The chances of being infected are so miniscule. International travel and tourism businesses should open up again under those conditions. 

[Golden Triangle]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

If I'm not mistaken, the production facility here has never made vaccinations before....maybe someone with more knowledge can help here?

 

I believe you are correct, Thailand has no experience of manufacturing vaccines, the 'plant' has to be built from scratch if I read it right, which is why Thannathorn (spl) queried it & asked some difficult questions about the capabilities etc. 

[jomtienisgood]

On 1/23/2021 at 6:54 PM, bkk6060 said:

Ok, great.

Certainly seems responsible and makes proper sense.

It would if there were enough vaccine doses available.....

[VBF]

15 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

Even though the jury is still out on the vaccine/transmission - the point will come where the more that get vaccinated, the less the virus is likley to be around.  Hopefully, as more and more travel companies and airlines begin requiring passengers to have been vaccinated, that will persuade some of those that are unsure to get it done.

 

My worry is that third world countries don't seem to be getting their share of the vaccine and that's just not right.  Apart from the moral issues, as the WHO say - 'nobody's safe until everybody's safe.

IMO, that's an exaggeration. One you're vaccinated, YOU are safe, but others around you may or may not be - we still don't know.

So out of a crowd of, say 100 people, if 20 are vaccinated, then perhaps 80 are still not safe. So to say "nobody's safe" isn't exactly accurate.

[VBF]

4 hours ago, Mike E said:

Maybe you missed it, but my post was in response to a post by sammieuk1,  who I quoted and according to his profile, lives in Thailand.

But I repeat that the thread is about travellers  not people currently in Thailand, who for the purposes of this particular topic, are irrelevant.

[VBF]

2 hours ago, simon43 said:

<deleted> man, don't spread such rubbish!!  It doesn't modify your DNA.  Unlike previous kinds of vaccine, the mRNA vaccines don't use inactive viruses to elicit an immune response from your body.  They use a modified protein that looks like the receptors of the Covid virus.  So your immune system thinks there is a Covid virus in your body, but actually there is no virus, either active or inactive.  In principle, it is safer than using an actual inactive virus - your immune system simply recognises each virus from the shape of the protein (each virus has a different 'lock and key' shape).

 

Additionally, no vaccine stops you getting a virus, whether it be covid-19 or another virus.  It simply means that your immune system is ready to 'fight' this pathogen, since it's already had a chance to build up antibodies against that particular virus, because the immune system is 'fooled' by the vaccine into thinking that an active pathogen has entered your body.

You beat me to it - thanks. ????

[Alidiver]

21 hours ago, Mike E said:

 

Well, covid is pretty darn rare if you're here in Thailand.  Now I don't know what the percentage of bad reactions to the vaccine are but lets say they are a very small half of a percent.   If 70,000,000 people get vaccinated, that will be about 35,000 bad reactions.  Significantly higher than the 13,000 cases so far and 72 deaths.  As long as cases stay as low as they've been here, I'm perfectly happy if the government insists on vaccinating all citizens first before they decide to get around to farang.

That's if you believe 13,000 cases when they've only completed 1,200,00 tests. 

Bad reaction may be a bruise or aching arm. 

[ChrisKC]

20 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

You fell head first into the numbers trap with reliance on figures posted by the Thai government safer asking is it black or white to the colour blind ????

Don't think colour blindness is a problem in black and white; distinguishing between red, yellow, and green are the main problems.

[brain150]

So now everybody needs a vaccine against a disease that has a survival rate of 99.8++ % ?

 

Makes total sense for sure .... because it's in the news, so it must be true

[Alsyapal]

On 1/23/2021 at 11:44 AM, KhaoYai said:

Several travel companies and airlines have stated that they plan to introduce a requirement that customers must have been vaccinated against Covid 19. Personally, I think this will become widespread and make travel difficult for those who refuse to be vaccinated.  Its possible that this could also be introduced in other spheres.

 

The latest:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55738918

 

I said a while back that some employers would go down this path - its already started.

 

Linked in the above BBC article:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55654229

Good idea but is the requirement for insurance against Covid 19 going to be cheaper if vaccinated against infection??

 

[Jeffr2]

36 minutes ago, brain150 said:

So now everybody needs a vaccine against a disease that has a survival rate of 99.8++ % ?

 

Makes total sense for sure .... because it's in the news, so it must be true

That's not the survival rate. Where did you get that number?

[Nout]

21 hours ago, Joinaman said:

So 200 people all wear a mask to get on a plane to travel

Yet 200 people all remove their mask for up to 1 hour while eating and drinking 

does the virus know something we don't ? 

You can't eat  or drink with a mask on!!

[Pmbkk]

If you've had Covid - like me ( no symptoms etc ), but tested positive twice 4 weeks apart - does that mean I'm exempt. 

 

Apparently already having had the virus is more protective than the vaccine itself  ...

 

Where do I sign-up for my certificate and badge so can fly back to my apt  ?

[KhaoYai]

3 hours ago, VBF said:

IMO, that's an exaggeration. One you're vaccinated, YOU are safe, but others around you may or may not be - we still don't know.

I don't think its an exaggeration but neither do I think its 'tablets of stone'.  I think its a fair assessment of the situation.  No context was given when that statement was made but the WHO certainly know the 'ins and outs' of the virus so I think they were talking in general more than meaning everbody will be totally safe once we've all had the vaccine. That would clearly not be possible with the current vaccines - given their circa 80-90% efficacy. The context I took from their statement is that it is imperative that as many people as possible are vaccinated and that life will not even begin to get back to normal until that's acheived.

 

I think that for the purposes of this discussion, getting back to normal will come with strings attached.  I don't think anybody will be able to take travel for granted again.  Travel restrictions are actually not that unusual but people living in most developed countries don't notice them.  Relating that to Thailand - people from Yellow Fever hotpsots are required to have a vaccination certificate to be allowed entry for example.  It doesn't affect me as I don't come from one of those 'hotspots' so I don't even notice the restriction.

 

Its all very new at the moment - I think most governments are busy dealing with the 'here and now' of Covid but I think vaccination requirements will become common place both as a temporary measure and as a more permanent matter for the future as countries decide their policy.  At the moment it seems that companies are taking it on themselves to introduce a vaccination requirement and its likely that they are doing that for both the safety of their staff and to prevent potential litigation.  The upshot of this is that it is very likely that people who refuse to get vaccinated will find it very hard to travel anywhere soon.  A country may or may not have a vaccine requirement in place but the carrier might - as I say, its likely that travel will become very difficult.

 

Some countries locked down very quickly (Thailand) and others have been very lax about it (UK) but that is changing and I believe every country will formulate some kind of restriction going forward. The UK for example is currently under pressure to strengthen its quarantine requirements and put in place a hotel system like Thailand's ASQ.  These measures will evolve and my betting would be that in the not too distant future most countries will have permanent restrictions on travel depending on the carrier and the destination.

 

Relating that to the WHO's comments, taken in the context that I believe they were meant, in addition to the measures mentioned above, countries that have not vaccinated the majority of their population will have restrictions on travelling TO them and travellers may need to quarantine on their return.  That is why it is imperative that the vaccine is made available to ALL countries as soon as possible - as they say 'NOBODY'S SAFE UNTIL EVERYBODY'S SAFE'.

Edited January 25, 2021 by KhaoYai

[Jeffr2]

19 minutes ago, Nout said:

You can't eat  or drink with a mask on!!

Many airlines have canceled all in-flight services.

[Phulublub]

1 hour ago, brain150 said:

So now everybody needs a vaccine against a disease that has a survival rate of 99.8++ % ?

 

Makes total sense for sure .... because it's in the news, so it must be true

What about the hospitalisation rate?  Go look at how stretched the UK health service is.  It is NOT just about mortality.

 

PH

[KhaoYai]

59 minutes ago, Alsyapal said:

Good idea but is the requirement for insurance against Covid 19 going to be cheaper if vaccinated against infection??

An interesting point and thinking about it, it could be that insurers insist on vaccination once its widely available.

[KhaoYai]

1 hour ago, brain150 said:

So now everybody needs a vaccine against a disease that has a survival rate of 99.8++ % ?

 

Makes total sense for sure .... because it's in the news, so it must be true

We are talking about facts regarding travel requirements here.  You can post as many arguable figures as you like - restrictions have begun and they will increase.

Edited January 25, 2021 by KhaoYai

[KhaoYai]

15 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

The UK for example is currently under pressure to strengthen its quarantine requirements and put in place a hotel system like Thailand's ASQ. 

That was on the BBC news this morning although there is no link yet.  For me and possibly thousands of others, that would make a difficult situation just about impossible even though I agree, it may be necessary.

 

An opposition politician, Lisa Nandy stated that the current home quarantine/tracing requirements were just not working - with just 3% of entrants being checked on.  I would agree - my wife had to give her UK contact details when she was here but nobody contacted her to check she was home.

 

Its already massively expensive for me to visit my wife in Thailand, if I had to shell out another £1000 + to stay in a London hotel, I think I'd be forced to cancel my planned visit in April. If such measures are intoduced, hopefully those who have been vaccinated will be exempt.