Best case scenario still dire for Thailand's tourism industry - worse case sees only TWO million foreign visitors in 2021

[PatOngo]

2 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

And all the unemployed from the West that have lost there incomes ( or had them reduced ) will replace all the Chinese Tourists that visit Thailand

Even more of a win win.

Hard to travel if you've got no money, really not sure what your trying to say???

[DoneTravelling]

22 hours ago, RickBradford said:

A holiday in Thailand is a no-brainer.

 

Get a vaccination, get a Covid-free document, get a negative PCR test, get hundreds of thousands of dollars of health insurance, get on a plane with your mask, with no food or drink for 12 hours, arrive in Thailand, get a negative PCR test, go to 14 days quarantine, get another PCR test, leave quarantine several thousand dollars poorer, get the Mor Chana app, try to find out where is not under provincial lockdown, go somewhere where there are still pubs and restaurants open, have a beer and a meal, get another negative PCR test, get on the airplane, with no food and drink for 12 hours, land in your home country, take a PCR test, go into quarantine, get another PCR test, leave quarantine a  few thousand dollars even poorer, get home utterly exhausted - desperately needing a holiday.

 

What's not to like?

Exactly why I am looking elsewhere. I lived in Thailand for 12 years, invested heavily in the country, was out of the country when Covid hit. Now they make it so difficult and expensive to return. No point in returning at all.

[Peterphuket]

I always see: "must read" but for nearly one year it is everyday the same story.

Please mention when there is really something change.

[Andy from Kent]

 

The Thai government stated if the recovery is fast it'll take only 3 years.    

 

However if the recover is a slow one we should expect a five year wait for thing to return to as they were before the COVID-19 Pandemic.     

[D M G]

Documents + Cost + Quarantine

 

There is a fine line between Safety and Paranoia

 

There is a fine line between Prevention and Corruption

 

**********************************************************************************************

 

What is the problem with self-quarantine? 

– It’s enforceable by both people and technology.
– It has an immediate impact on the economy with a limited danger of spreading of the virus.
– It can be rolled out to select groups: the Retired, Employed, Educator, etc.
– It’s a Win/Win/Win for the Government, the unemployed locals and the disgruntled foreigner.

I have not heard a legitimate objection or discussion. This should be questioned, analyzed, addressed.

[elliss]

 

 Best case scenario , would be to make prostitution legal .

   No way .. That would mean losing face / respect ? ...555

[newnative]

    No international tourists of any significant numbers until the quarantine is lifted.  No lifting of the quarantine likely until Thai citizens are vaccinated.  No vaccinations of any significant numbers until June at the very earliest, and then only a million or two a month.  And, that brings us right back to no international tourists of any significant numbers likely this year.  

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, D M G said:

Documents + Cost + Quarantine

 

There is a fine line between Safety and Paranoia

 

There is a fine line between Prevention and Corruption

 

**********************************************************************************************

 

What is the problem with self-quarantine? 

– It’s enforceable by both people and technology.
– It has an immediate impact on the economy with a limited danger of spreading of the virus.
– It can be rolled out to select groups: the Retired, Employed, Educator, etc.
– It’s a Win/Win/Win for the Government, the unemployed locals and the disgruntled foreigner.

I have not heard a legitimate objection or discussion. This should be questioned, analyzed, addressed.

As much as what you say makes sense, just think of the opposite and that is what this wonderful Thai Government does.  Self quarantine will never be done here.  They would rather do the Bubble and seal in the migrant communities.  Foreigners, such as expats, get hospitalized if positive and no symptoms, while when you first arrive you end up in an ASQ, and that will not change until they have vaccinated most of the population here.  It is all about saving FACE and showing they have put Covid in it's place, even though it is still rearing it's ugly head and clusters are popping up here and there.  They trust no one, not even their own country men and corrupt government officials who trafficked in the last batch of Covid running through the country now.

Edited February 14, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[foreverlomsak]

On 2/13/2021 at 5:40 PM, rooster59 said:

But the worst case scenario - possibly where a third wave of Covid was experienced, might see only 2 million foreign visitors

Foreign visitors, as in tourists or foreign visitors, as in short term illegal migrant labor (work 6 months and go home again)

[phantomfiddler]

And only themselves to blame ????

[Captor]

On 2/13/2021 at 11:40 AM, rooster59 said:

Best case scenario still dire for Thailand's tourism industry - worse case sees only TWO million foreign visitors in 2021

 

Image: TNN

 

TNN in what they called was an exclusive feature stated what everyone knows and a little that was new.

 

Thailand's tourism industry is in tatters just when it was showing signs of recovery, they said.

 

There was optimism when it appeared that the pandemic was under control in Thailand last year.

 

Then came the second wave that, TNN intimated, caught the government and the other Thai authorities on the hop. 

 

Now they said that Kasikorn bank's research instuitute was giving a best and worse case scenario for tourism in Thailand in 2021. 

 

Skeptics may even find the worst case scenario optimistic, notes Thaivisa. 

 

The best case scenario sees a world where the virus is largely under control and vaccines are being delivered and are effective and people around the world begin to travel internationally again. 

 

In this case they predicted 4.5 million foreign tourists for Thailand spending 340 billion baht.

 

But the worst case scenario - possibly where a third wave of Covid was experienced, might see only 2 million foreign visitors and significantly less revenue. 

 

Similarly assessments for domestic tourism are also based on two scenarios. The first sees the virus under control in the first three months of this year, no third wave and vaccine programs starting to be rolled out successfully.

 

This says Thais will go on 120 million trips this year.

 

But if things don't go as planned domestic tourism could be just two thirds this figure.

 

Source: TNN

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2021-02-13

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

Fix the air pollution and hte tourists will come back after covid. Otherwise not so many.

 

[SupermarineS6B]

Dream on, as long as there's a shadow of doubt in any of the vaccines the government's not going to drop all it's money spinning quarantine requirements, there's too much money in it for them and their mates, who by the way own the golf courses as well..... None of the vaccines are a 100% guaranteed, but it's going to take a lot of outside pressure before the government release its death grip on the country, and the people in the tourist resorts would be better off giving uncle Tuu a good tongue lashing as to their dire situation.....   We all know what the lads at the top think about farangs and they're not going to bust their butt risking anything for them,  and definetely not putting themselves in any danger...... Nope, they're enjoying finally getting rid of those pesky farangs and what's left they'll slowly torture with a multitude of hoops to jump through before they've finally had enough and leave....  Then the Chinese dream will be back on in full scale just as before the C19 pandemic turned up........ Unless the lads go as with others in the past, Thailand for farangs has a very bleak future along with all its tourist destinations.......   

[asiasurfer]

On 2/13/2021 at 10:36 PM, Fex Bluse said:

They will be lucky to get 100,000 genuine tourists this year. 

 

Not long stay people returning to family. 

 

Genuine tourists. 

 

Will not be many. 

They don't know the difference... 

[bkksteve123]

I might be wrong, but remember that just a few weeks ago TAT predicted 20 million, last week they predicted 10 million, now the best case is 4.5 million? I agree that 4.5 million is probably the best case, that would mean that Q4 is when things start getting back to normal which is still a possibility.

 

Surely, the worst case is NO real tourists, aside from the few thousand monthly they get now, so the worst case is approx. 100 000 or so?

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, bkksteve123 said:

I might be wrong, but remember that just a few weeks ago TAT predicted 20 million, last week they predicted 10 million, now the best case is 4.5 million? I agree that 4.5 million is probably the best case, that would mean that Q4 is when things start getting back to normal which is still a possibility.

 

Surely, the worst case is NO real tourists, aside from the few thousand monthly they get now, so the worst case is approx. 100 000 or so?

Q4 of 2022, or 2023?

[D M G]

10 hours ago, SupermarineS6B said:

Dream on, as long as there's a shadow of doubt in any of the vaccines the government's not going to drop all it's money spinning quarantine requirements, there's too much money in it for them and their mates, who by the way own the golf courses as well..... None of the vaccines are a 100% guaranteed, but it's going to take a lot of outside pressure before the government release its death grip on the country, and the people in the tourist resorts would be better off giving uncle Tuu a good tongue lashing as to their dire situation.....   We all know what the lads at the top think about farangs and they're not going to bust their butt risking anything for them,  and definetely not putting themselves in any danger...... Nope, they're enjoying finally getting rid of those pesky farangs and what's left they'll slowly torture with a multitude of hoops to jump through before they've finally had enough and leave....  Then the Chinese dream will be back on in full scale just as before the C19 pandemic turned up........ Unless the lads go as with others in the past, Thailand for farangs has a very bleak future along with all its tourist destinations.......   

That scenario results in a completely broken economy.  Not even small steps to recovery.  That puts the government at risk with the people.  Lot's of very bad things can occur.  A face-saving way out has to be concocted.

[soi3eddie]

1 hour ago, bkksteve123 said:

I might be wrong, but remember that just a few weeks ago TAT predicted 20 million, last week they predicted 10 million, now the best case is 4.5 million? I agree that 4.5 million is probably the best case, that would mean that Q4 is when things start getting back to normal which is still a possibility.

 

Surely, the worst case is NO real tourists, aside from the few thousand monthly they get now, so the worst case is approx. 100 000 or so?

 

I agree with this. 6,500 arrivals for December 2020 on what would normally be one of the busiest months of the year. With quarantine in place for rest of this year I would guess 100,000 at absolute maximum. If quarantine is lifted in October than maybe 500,000 for the year of 2021 at the very most. Don't forget that many countries still have an exit rule of no travel except for "essential reasons". Going to a beach or resort or gogo bar is not classed as "essential" except for many of those already here ???? 

 

  

Edited February 15, 2021 by soi3eddie

[ThailandRyan]

40 minutes ago, D M G said:

That scenario results in a completely broken economy.  Not even small steps to recovery.  That puts the government at risk with the people.  Lot's of very bad things can occur.  A face-saving way out has to be concocted.

You are not telling us anything we do not know, but TIT, and logic is not a key strength.  There is no amount of meeting in the middle that will make this Govt not loose FACE, so it wont happen.  Stop beating your head against the wall.  The youth have been protesting this Government and yes bad things will happen, it is just a facet of life here in a Dictatorship style regime that claims it is democratic.

Edited February 15, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Stargeezr]

I do not think that Thailand will get a big number of tourists until their population has

been vaccinated, as well as most of the countries of the world get vaccinated.

  Right now if you are out of Canada, for example, you will have to spend 3 days in

a hotel and be tested on arrival and if the results are negative, you can then go home and

quarantine for the rest of your 14 days. That will cost at least 2000 Canadian dollars.

   I hope that anyone who refuses to get vaccinated, has their passports cancelled, or 

revoked as well.  I will be surprised if any country will be in good enough shape by the

wInter of 2021/2022,  to let down their quarantine rules. I do believe that by Fall of 2022,  most

places will be in better shape to start opening up.  By then I expect to hear of many hotel

chains being totally bankrupt. Same for cruise shop companies, some airlines, as well as

many other companies that were working for the tourist industry.  Guess we will see

how the year progresses. I am just hoping for an early Spring for now.

Geezer

[jethro69]

On 2/13/2021 at 11:48 AM, Thaiwrath said:

The way it's going, the headline later on in the year could be.............

"Best case scenario sees only TWO million foreign visitors in 2021" ! 

Hardly possible, if borders remain closed and/or quarantine requirements are lifted.

 

[RubbaJohnny]

May well be 2 million from starving neighboring juntas, tho not the high rollers wanted by titfor TAT.

Chance of producing vaxx for many nations at low cost , that sub has sailed , the slackpackers won't fork out for 14 days , while the serious sanuk seekers will dip In  at more welcoming dives or "virtual " thrills.Hornpub may replace Patters

[D M G]

Thank you for removing my response.  I lost my temper to a rude, know-it-all.  Kor toad.

????

[rabang]

19 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

I do not think that Thailand will get a big number of tourists until their population has

been vaccinated, as well as most of the countries of the world get vaccinated.

  Right now if you are out of Canada, for example, you will have to spend 3 days in

a hotel and be tested on arrival and if the results are negative, you can then go home and

quarantine for the rest of your 14 days. That will cost at least 2000 Canadian dollars.

   I hope that anyone who refuses to get vaccinated, has their passports cancelled, or 

revoked as well.  I will be surprised if any country will be in good enough shape by the

wInter of 2021/2022,  to let down their quarantine rules. I do believe that by Fall of 2022,  most

places will be in better shape to start opening up.  By then I expect to hear of many hotel

chains being totally bankrupt. Same for cruise shop companies, some airlines, as well as

many other companies that were working for the tourist industry.  Guess we will see

how the year progresses. I am just hoping for an early Spring for now.

Geezer

I expect the EU countries to fully open their borders at least for inter European travel within the next 6 months at least.

 

Thailand will probably keep the quarantine until 2022. The elite can even ignore losing a second high season in a row. They seem extremely cautious about opening up now with their "success" and are traditionally xenophobic anyway.

[spidermike007]

I assume that includes the ones who came before March 15th?

 

Best case. Under one million after July 1st, if there is NO quarantine. The Golden goose is being suffocated by incompetence, pathological fear of uncertainty, and lack of planning. And maybe 1-2 million in 2022. Maybe. 

 

Yet, when the 2nd wave happened in Samut Sakhon, little was done to shut the province down. It boggles the mind and defies reason. Domestic tourism could have been booming now, and it could have been limited to a very small, and very manageable zone. No nationwide shutdowns. Few lost jobs. Billions earned.

 

Anyone have any answers? I have only questions. 

Edited March 8, 2021 by spidermike007

[kevc]

You know these stories are not even worth reading because nobody knows what is going to happen. It's like they sit at the lunch table thinking up things to say.

[itsari]

On 2/13/2021 at 8:00 PM, connda said:

Down from 10 million?  I still think TAT needs to take off the rose colored glasses and don a set of reality goggles.  2 million?  What sort of pneumatic device do they plan to install at the border that bypassed the Machiavellian entry restrictions and that will squeeze the tourist into Thailand like sausage filling into a casing?  Ain't gonna happen.  Thailand is too nationalistic and xenophobic.
Foreigners are dirty Covid carriers that are a national security risk to Clean Thailand.

Well said , only now the Thais are understanding  where there wages were coming from .