US Social Security @ 62 or?

[kynikoi]

You can plan forever and it's never enough.

 

I had two aunt's that both put off retirement. One died of cervical cancer and the other lung cancer. 71, 72. Both had substancial assets. One a workaholic, the other a semi workaholic. Both could have cut it loose at 50 and not 65.

 

Another uncle just passed at 94. Played tennis until 91 and golf until 93.

 

Conversation is getting off track.

[Gecko123]

30 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I don’t disagree but I would change it a bit to if you think your life expectancy will likely be either below average OR average. Obviously not foolproof but there are ways to predict this. Numerous online health history surveys and also noting your parents longevity, etc.

I've done quite a number of those longevity estimates. Most come up late 80's-early 90's for me. I must say that the process of waiting until age 70 to collect benefits (I'm still a few years out) does test one's resolve. It does take a measure of patience and an almost spiritual faith that it will all work  out in the end. If you have a day where you start feeling your age, you can easily start second guessing your decision. I have several siblings who have collected far more than they've paid into social security, so I tell myself it wouldn't be the end of the world if I come up short and my bet on my longevity doesn't pay off.

[kynikoi]

You don't live past 90, you merely survive. My uncle was a total anomaly. My parents 89, 92 ready to call it a day. Another uncle was totally falling apart at 85. An aunt senile 93. My grandfather's died relatively young 82, 87.

 

I'm chancing myself for 90.

 

In all likelihood I will draw benefits after 62 but before 65.

[GinBoy2]

Trouble with making this decision is that as we approach our twilight years none of us can predict when the lights will actually go out for good.

 

When you look at the payout graph from 62-66-70 it's an exponential curve for monthly payments.

 

But then try to look at what you actually receive in total $.

 

Pick an age when you think you might depart this world, then calculate the total $ you would have received from the various age points past 62, not forgetting that regardless of whether you are not in the US, at 65 you will get Medicare A&B deducted from your check.

 

So we're back to the question, when do you take it?

 

And the answer to that question is one that every individual needs to figure out with a crystal ball, ouija board, pair of dice, and some heavy drinking!

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, Gecko123 said:

I've done quite a number of those longevity estimates. Most come up late 80's-early 90's for me. I must say that the process of waiting until age 70 to collect benefits (I'm still a few years out) does test one's resolve. It does take a measure of patience and an almost spiritual faith that it will all work  out in the end. If you have a day where you start feeling your age, you can easily start second guessing your decision. I have several siblings who have collected far more than they've paid into social security, so I tell myself it wouldn't be the end of the world if I come up short and my bet on my longevity doesn't pay off.

You're lucky, I paid around 250,000 pounds into the UK national insurance scheme.

My state pension will be around 6,000 pounds a year and I can take it from age 66.

I'll  need to live until I'm 106 to break even.

[rumak]

I am in the unfortunate position of being someone who thinks the world is so screwed up, the financial systems ( if one can even call it that)  are so rigged as to make no sense at all

( the OP mentions a few absurdities......  55   If the US was  Ethiopia printing trillions of fiat paper dolls they would be laughed off the map.   As it is,  the dollar actually went up  )

 

Given the stress of trying to make sense of it all,  and how it will most likely shorten my life expectancy............... well,  of course I take the money and run !  Somtam and pork chips ,

with some Mama to keep me alive.  God bless social security.

[rumak]

5 hours ago, kynikoi said:

Another uncle just passed at 94. Played tennis until 91 and golf until 93.

 

seems like he planned it just right .   Ninety----FORE !!

[kynikoi]

4 hours ago, BritManToo said:

You're lucky, I paid around 250,000 pounds into the UK national insurance scheme.

My state pension will be around 6,000 pounds a year and I can take it from age 66.

I'll  need to live until I'm 106 to break even.

That's precisely why I didn't take that road. Not to mention in US the money may be cut and definitely inflated to the sky.

[BTempleman]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. 

[kynikoi]

3 hours ago, rumak said:

I am in the unfortunate position of being someone who thinks the world is so screwed up, the financial systems ( if one can even call it that)  are so rigged as to make no sense at all

( the OP mentions a few absurdities......  55   If the US was  Ethiopia printing trillions of fiat paper dolls they would be laughed off the map.   As it is,  the dollar actually went up  )

 

Given the stress of trying to make sense of it all,  and how it will most likely shorten my life expectancy............... well,  of course I take the money and run !  Somtam and pork chips ,

with some Mama to keep me alive.  God bless social security.

The dollar is not in any way 'up' although it's rec'd a tiny bump against the thb in the last week - now pulling back.

 

Ethiopia printing trillions is nothing. It's a nothing economy and currency never worth anything. US on the other hand printing trillions is something to take note. Precious metals track this rather well.

 

If all you have is US SS good luck because they will continue to inflate and possibly cut.

[rumak]

6 minutes ago, kynikoi said:

If all you have is US SS good luck because they will continue to inflate and possibly cut.

 

I was with a mixed (countries) group of expats around 20 years ago,  at a friendly Sunday group meeting.   The consensus was that the US dollar was going to get killed , never survive their increasing "debt deficits".    I am no financial genius but I was doubtful of that happening, stating something simple like they are the big boys and can get away with this fiscal nonsense.   Now they add TRILLIONS to the "national debt"  like it was confetti at a laugh at the world party.

I still doubt they will face any serious consequences.   See you in 20 years and we can see if i was right or wrong.

[ChrisP24]

Kynikoi, one thing to consider about social security is that the SSA amount paid to you over your lifetime is actuarially calculated to be the same amount, whether you start drawing  at 62, 65, 67, 70 or any other age.  Starting early just means smaller payments, over a longer period of time.  In theory if you banked every payment you receive in a non-interest bearing account, when you pass away, you'll have the same amount in the bank at time of death regardless of when you start drawing.  That is on average.  By waiting you are essentially betting that you will live longer than the SSA actuarial average.  This does not factor in any joint planning wherein your wife may be able to draw on your record.

 

You indicate in a couple of your responses that this will be supplemental money and you have income from other sources, and also that the amount will be reduced based on the number of years you paid into the system.  My own thinking is that starting at age 62 is the way to go - - money now is better than money later, especially since the SSA does not offer you any real return for waiting, on average.  And even if you plan on beating the average by living a very long time, the return on investment for waiting is still not very good - - for my own situation drawing at age 62 vs. 67 means a 30% reduction in monthly benefit, or 6% per year.  If I start drawing at age 62, every SS dollar that I receive means one dollar that I then don't have to withdraw from a tax-deferred or Roth account.  I'm betting that the annual return there will handily beat 6% over the longer haul.   Plus the money that I then didn't withdraw from tax-deferred or Roth accounts (by virtue of having the SS income) will pass on to my spouse, whereas the monthly SS income will not.  

 

I think that waiting only makes sense for people who will really be relying on their monthly SS check as their main source of income to meet their living expenses, or possibly if they are following a strategy to maximize the amount a spouse will be able to draw on their record.   Of course every person's situation is different and it is a personal decision.  Most people say to wait to receive a larger check, but I don't think the math always supports that.  

[partington]

3 hours ago, ChrisP24 said:

Kynikoi, one thing to consider about social security is that the SSA amount paid to you over your lifetime is actuarially calculated to be the same amount, whether you start drawing  at 62, 65, 67, 70 or any other age.  Starting early just means smaller payments, over a longer period of time.  In theory if you banked every payment you receive in a non-interest bearing account, when you pass away, you'll have the same amount in the bank at time of death regardless of when you start drawing.  That is on average.  By waiting you are essentially betting that you will live longer than the SSA actuarial average.  This does not factor in any joint planning wherein your wife may be able to draw on your record.

 

You indicate in a couple of your responses that this will be supplemental money and you have income from other sources, and also that the amount will be reduced based on the number of years you paid into the system.  My own thinking is that starting at age 62 is the way to go - - money now is better than money later, especially since the SSA does not offer you any real return for waiting, on average.  And even if you plan on beating the average by living a very long time, the return on investment for waiting is still not very good - - for my own situation drawing at age 62 vs. 67 means a 30% reduction in monthly benefit, or 6% per year.  If I start drawing at age 62, every SS dollar that I receive means one dollar that I then don't have to withdraw from a tax-deferred or Roth account.  I'm betting that the annual return there will handily beat 6% over the longer haul.   Plus the money that I then didn't withdraw from tax-deferred or Roth accounts (by virtue of having the SS income) will pass on to my spouse, whereas the monthly SS income will not.  

 

I think that waiting only makes sense for people who will really be relying on their monthly SS check as their main source of income to meet their living expenses, or possibly if they are following a strategy to maximize the amount a spouse will be able to draw on their record.   Of course every person's situation is different and it is a personal decision.  Most people say to wait to receive a larger check, but I don't think the math always supports that.  

I completely agree with this, and took mine at 62 for exactly the reasons summarised here.

[gargamon]

Live like you're going to die tomorrow. Plan like you're going to live forever.  I'll be waiting till 70 (or is it 71.5 now?)

 

The determining factor for me is whether you currently need the money to live the lifestyle you want to live. I don't really need to collect money so it goes into investments, increasing my tax burden, etc. 

 

I seem to recall they were changing the way benefits were being calculated for dependant children under 18 receiving social security. Something about US residence being required I think. Not sure if this was ever put into law.

[kynikoi]

15 minutes ago, gargamon said:

 

The determining factor for me is whether you currently need the money to live the lifestyle you want to live. I don't really need to collect money so it goes into investments, increasing my tax burden, etc. 

Thanks. I'm not certain I will be that well off. I doubt it. I'm currently not drawing on any retirement accounts and will not at least until 62 -65.

[taxout]

". . . the SSA amount paid to you over your lifetime is actuarially calculated to be the same amount, whether you start drawing  at 62, 65, 67, 70 or any other age."

 

SSA uses an all-American actuarial table that doesn't distinguish by sex, race or other factors.

 

Yet these factors make a big difference. I checked once and I recall there was about a 10-year difference between the remaining life expectancy of a white female and a black male at age 65, for example.

 

So you need to make the calculation based on your own particular life expectancy.

 

 

[Pedrogaz]

I had this problem a few years ago. In general the consensus from actuaries was that taking the pension early maximised income as most people don't live as long as they expect to.

[1FinickyOne]

I couldn't believe the government was going to give me money... I took it from day one though I really did not need it... I was afraid they would change their mind...

 

That said, not needing the $$ - another important factor that I rarely see considered, how much can you earn by investing that money? 

 

You can even invest it in intangibles, like having fun... 

 

Do you think you might be more capable of enjoying yourself now than when you are older, achier and just want to sleep in front of the television? 

[kynikoi]

19 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

Do you think you might be more capable of enjoying yourself now than when you are older, achier and just want to sleep in front of the television? 

 

Point is well taken.

 

I lead a very simple life as well.

 

My largest worry is the ridiculous cost of healthcare and seeing my wife has something to carry her an additional 15 years. Marriage was not in my early retirement plan. I'd avoided it 3x from 20s to 50.

[DFPhuket]

If you're not able to get into the SSN site, you might try a VPN that shows you're in the US. If I use a VPN I can get with no issues, but without it, I get an error message. 

[Skypirate]

I started at 62.5 years.   Regretted not waiting.   I did not fully understand the consequences of working and dealing with the max earnings limitations.  AS well, phone calls to SSA usually have a long wait time before you get a SSA Rep and the answers vary between Reps.  Writing takes longer for a response, but you have a document to refer to when there are issues.

You can get estimates of your SSA payment and your "full retirement" date from the SSA website.  The reference handbook has a myriad of exceptions and procedures.  Take the time to study it.

[suzannegoh]

If you’re single or you are married to a Thai who hasn’t ever lived in the US then there’s a greater chance that the math would support taking SS at age 62.  If married to a US citizen the math is different because your spouse will be able to collect your SS if you die before them.

My last SS statement showed that I would get 42% more if I took SS at age 67 instead of 62.  With the right assumptions about by how much the government will under-report inflation and about how long you will live might make taking it at age 62 work out.  If you’re expecting to die at age 70 and you’re single then definitely taking it at 62 would be the thing to do. 
 

[cmarshall]

The OP should separate his retirement planning from his fantasies about the US govt. and the dollar.

 

If you can afford to wait to collect SS, wait as long as you can up to age 70.  If you don't have the means to support yourself while waiting on SS and so you have to take it earlier, then take it earlier.  I waited until age 70 and I am glad I did.  My benefit is 132% of the benefit I would have collected at 62.  The arguments about enjoying your money when you are young or taking it early so that you can invest it and make a killing in the stock market are claims made only by the financially illiterate.

[Tony125]

On 4/7/2021 at 7:35 AM, kynikoi said:

Thanks. That would be five years for me. I'm really expecting inflation to kick in perhaps in two years. I believe it's already running above 4% in usd.

Sorry to Say: You Probably Shouldn't Claim Social Security at 62

 

 

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2021/03/06/sorry-you-shouldnt-claim-social-security-62/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rwill]

Take the amount you will start getting at 62 and multiply it by 36.  Then divide that number by the difference of what you would get at 62 and what you would get if you waited until 65.  That will give you the number of months you would have to get payments starting at 65 to break even with what you got by starting at 62.

 

When I calculated the number of months to break even from all the income I could have had I figured I might be dead before even breaking even by waiting longer.

[Kurtf]

Thanks. That would be five years for me. I'm really expecting inflation to kick in perhaps in two years. I believe it's already running above 4% in usd.

 

I believe you have answered your own question. I agree with you that inflation is going to devalue the dollar significantly in the not too distant future.

[The Theory]

If think I calculated a while ago and total is the same till age 79. If you withdraw early you start losing after 79. 

[earlinclaifornia]

On 4/7/2021 at 8:13 AM, kynikoi said:

I can't access it. When I return home I'll go to the office and try again. They used to send statements.

 

In the end it's just supplemental. It is what it is.

 

Thank you

Use a VPN so the ip is in America

[The Theory]

1 hour ago, DFPhuket said:

If you're not able to get into the SSN site, you might try a VPN that shows you're in the US. If I use a VPN I can get with no issues, but without it, I get an error message. 

There is no problem to log in SS website from overseas. There are thousands of people need to get that site from outside of the US. I'm one of them.
There could be sign in problems if you are using home Wi-Fi. Just use your phone data. 
No need VPN either. 

[earlinclaifornia]

9 minutes ago, The Theory said:

There is no problem to log in SS website from overseas. There are thousands of people need to get that site from outside of the US. I'm one of them.
There could be sign in problems if you are using home Wi-Fi. Just use your phone data. 
No need VPN either. 

The two step procedures may have let you in now I tried without my VPN

 

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