Continuing to debate here about methodologies for calculating excess deaths is really getting off topic to this thread. Best to save that for a general topic in the Coronavirus forum. Further off topic posts will be removed.

 

 

This chart today from the MoPH shows how the CV cases have spread from a relatively few provinces to pretty much nationwide during the past month.

 

The color coding relates to the numbers of new cases reported in each province during that week, as explained in the guide at the bottom of the chart.

 

 

The MoPH today reported that just 5 of Thailand 77 provinces haven't had any reported COVID cases. And 62 provinces have reported new cases in the past several days.

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/303316124620052

 

 

The EN version of the Bangkok province order closing all "entertainment venues":

 

 

https://prbangkok-eng.com/index.php/download/bma-announcement-on-temporary-closure-of-premises-no-23/

 

Ahh... a better, clearer chart than the government's of Thailand's COVID trend line from Thai PBS:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ThaiPBSWorld/posts/4304454916266472

 

 

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

I had the links but they are now gone from my activity history.  There was another poster who found them as he had them saved offline and posted them this past February, but now he is no longer posting.

There are some covid figures here, linked by day going back to January last year :

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

 

 

Also a good and long update article from Thai PBS on the latest COVID related developments and info:

 

Excerpts:

 

"Disease Control Department Director-General Dr. Opas Karnkavinpong said that most of the new cases are in the 20-29 and 30-39 age groups and asymptomatic, or with only mild symptoms, such as a runny nose and red eyes but without fever and, therefore, they tend to transmit the disease unknowingly.

 

He said that the UK variant of the virus, linked to entertainment outlet clusters, has now spread to 62 of Thailand’s 77 provinces, infecting 2,697 people, including 1,058 in Bangkok alone.

 

AND

 

For those who plan to travel now and during Songkran, he advised them to check first whether there are travel restrictions in their destination provinces, to avoid getting stuck in quarantine.

 

So far, 29 provinces have imposed quarantine for external arrivals. They include Kamphaeng Phet, Chiang Mai, Tak, Nan, Phayao, Lamphun, Uthai Thani, Chaiyaphum, Nakhon Phanom, Bung Karn, Buri Ra, Maha Sarakham, Mukdahan, Yasothon, Loei, Sakhon Nakhon, Nong Khai, Nong Bua Lamphu, Amnat Charoen, Chai Nat, Saraburi, Chumpon, Trang, Narathiwat, Pattani, Phang-nga and Songkhla.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/new-covid-19-infections-leapt-to-789-today-as-a-million-more-vaccine-doses-arrive/

 

 

The Ministry of Interior apparently has put together a website with COVID-related info on the various provinces and travel restrictions. However, as expected, it's in TH language and I don't see an EN version translation. Still might be helpful to some here who either read Thai or have family members who do.

 

"Check here!! Travelling measures in-out of each province

Interior Ministry of Interior gathered orders / announcements in all provinces about covid. Press the name of the province. Check it out.

 

http://www.moicovid.com/ข้อมูลสำคัญ-จังหวัด/

 

Just put your finger to the province that you want to know. There will be information.

1. Provincial announcement

2. provincial entry and exit section

3. Situation information

4. channel to contact

5. provincial action news

Which province are you going to travel? Let's study well. "

 

https://www.facebook.com/thaimoph/posts/284178993192011

 

2 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

559 to 789 is hardly exponential growth...and if hospital beds are running out it's because they put anyone testing positive in hospital even though 50% of people are asymptomatic and 80% never need hospitalization. 

Indeed. Asymtomatic should be should be released back into society. Is this what you are saying? These people are infectious. It's been over a year and you don't understand that "50% of people are asymptomatic and 80% never need hospitalization." is a big problem. Really?

27 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Ahh... a better, clearer chart than the government's of Thailand's COVID trend line from Thai PBS:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ThaiPBSWorld/posts/4304454916266472

 

A very clear exponential growth curve.

 

An off topic post and a post violating forum fair use quoting rules have been removed.

 

https://twitter.com/WHOThailand

 

Statement just tweeted by WHO

 

"In Thailand, as in most affected countries, controlling spread of this variant will be much more challenging than controlling the spread of previous strains, which the Ministry of Public Health has done so successfully"

 

Sounds to me like they are giving a message to start taking it seriously and put in place the measures necessary.

 

Basically what we've got here is the perfect storm on the horizon. No leadership to take the helm, instead relying on provincial governors to make their own decisions.

 

Multiple warnings from their own scientific experts on the seriousness of the situation and why they should not be allowing Songkran travel that will make it even worse. Experts that are stating the obvious but have no choice as the government is burying its head in the sand.

 

Lack of prepared hospital beds, lack of testing facilities, a miniscule number of test kits in stock, certainly not enough to deal with such a situation. 

 

A complete lack of vaccines to deal with this variant. Ministers who try to hide their timelines after getting infected. 

 

The next shortage is going to be ventilators for the seriously sick and many deaths that could have been avoided. Way to go Prayut. 

1 hour ago, rott said:

40% in a day and 400% in a week are substantial by any standard. Asymptomatic or otherwise. 

As I said, not exponential but certainly cause for concern.

2 hours ago, Guderian said:

 

Bangkok had 185 new cases, Chiang Mai 168, Samut Prakan 75 and Chonburi 141 (though they'll be in tomorrow's total because of the weird way that Chonburi reports its numbers).

 

 

Backing up what you posted above re Bangkok's portion of today's 789 new case count.

 

There were also large numbers of new cases reported locally from Chiang Mai and Prachuap Khiri Khan yesterday that were due to be included in today's national total.

 

 

 

http://www.bangkok.go.th/covid19/

 

Still haven't seen a full province by province breakdown for today's new cases.

 

"Thailand’s eastern coastal province of Chon Buri reported 141 new COVID-19 cases today (Saturday), most of them linked to entertainment outlets, according to the latest statement from the provincial health office." (likely to be counted in tomorrow's national totals).

 

https://www.facebook.com/ThaiPBSWorld/posts/4304204599624837

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

559 to 789 is hardly exponential growth...and if hospital beds are running out it's because they put anyone testing positive in hospital even though 50% of people are asymptomatic and 80% never need hospitalization. 

Exponential possibly, too early to tell but case numbers over last week doubling every two days, this how the boffins describe exponential, the number of days it takes for cases to double.

34 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Indeed. Asymtomatic should be should be released back into society. Is this what you are saying? These people are infectious. It's been over a year and you don't understand that "50% of people are asymptomatic and 80% never need hospitalization." is a big problem. Really?

They should be quarantined at home or quarantine centers with other positives...but don't need to be in a medical environment unless they develop serious Covid-19 disease sequelae.

1 minute ago, Petey11 said:

Exponential possibly, too early to tell but case numbers over last week doubling every two days, this how the boffins describe exponential, the number of days it takes for cases to double.

Small numbers double very quickly...going from 1 to 2 is a 100% increase. The numbers are still relatively small but are certainly cause for concern and reasonable containment measures.

Just a bit of behind the scenes look. The BMA publicly posts these kinds of tracking reports every day on many/most of the new cases that get reported detailing their recent locations. Always in TH language. I've never seen an EN version of these. Some days there are more than 100 of them posted, such as today.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/prbangkok/posts/3389312767834987

 

COVID testing update from Phyathai 2 Hospital today. Sounds like they're still in the testing business, although Phyathai 1 said the other day they had ceased:

 

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/phyathai2hospitalenglish/posts/285816979840136

 

7 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

COVID testing update from Phyathai 2 Hospital today. Sounds like they're still in the testing business, although Phyathai 1 said the other day they had ceased:

 

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/phyathai2hospitalenglish/posts/285816979840136

 

4 days for a test result, what will they do with themselves in the meantime? Go back to work or quarantine at home?

27 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

They should be quarantined at home or quarantine centers with other positives...but don't need to be in a medical environment unless they develop serious Covid-19 disease sequelae.

Apparently Anutin is allegedly quarantining at home perhaps he is researching for the possibility for the future use of home quarantining,or maybe he is hiding from the consequences of his decisions to allow travel.

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

4 days for a test result, what will they do with themselves in the meantime? Go back to work or quarantine at home?

At least the pubs are shut.

 

Wont stop them partying at home.

There was no EN language video briefing from the government today re COVID. They had been doing the EN versions on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, and sometimes an extra one. But likely none this weekend and unclear for the upcoming Song Kran holiday.

 

Here's a video link to the TH language briefing today that runs about one hour.

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/fanmoph/videos/1157112084729797/

I would describe this as a crime committed against the people of Thailand, by the army administration. It all goes back to Samut in December, and the extraordinary malfeasance that followed. I hope the people realize who is to blame, and direct their rage and frustrations in their direction. 

With the math, there are less than 100 known positive asymptomatic...out of treatment cases?  I don't get the math with this?

One of their TH graphics this morning, from the above linked video presentation, provided some details on  the current levels of hospitalizations:

 

The chart I believe indicates, 3400 people currently hospitalized, including 2810 in hospitals and 590 in field hospitals, with 10 serious status cases including intubation.

 

Of note: Under current government policy, anyone who tests positive for COVID is required to be hospitalized in some form, including the coming "hospitels" (hotel hospitals) until tested as no longer potentially contagious.

 

 

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

A simple easily accessible test would have tracked who had been infected as well as all the other benefits massive testing could have produced.If they did massive testing instead of lockdowns the economy could have been spared somewhat and the less vulnerable could go about living normally instead of this covid hell we are being forced into regardless of one's actual viral status.

Mass testing doesn't negate the need for targeted lockdowns when outbreaks occur.

 

We're not going to be living normally for a long time. Just like after 9/11.

4 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Not trying to bash Thailand.  But add a zero to that number.  Might be closer to reality.

 

You are basing that on what, exactly?

4 hours ago, John Drake said:

How is Thailand doing in the world ranking these reports used to include at the bottom of the page? For some reason, that part of the story has disappeared.

 

 

 

"Consumer spending may drop up to 100 billion baht if a new coronavirus outbreak lasts for 2 months, possibly sinking the economy in the current quarter.

 

According to University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, sentiment is expected to drop for at least 3 months before picking up if the COVID-19 situation eases quickly as the country deals with a new wave of infections.

 

There is a risk that the economy will shrink in the second quarter, rather than grow 1-2% as earlier forecast. Growth this year could be only 2.0-2.5%, not 2.8% as earlier predicted, if the outbreak cannot be contained within 2 months."

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157938397122050

 

 

"The Foreign Affairs Ministry has added China’s Sinopharm to its list of vaccines whose recipients qualify for a reduced quarantine period of 7 days in Thailand.

 

The Sinopharm vaccine becomes the eighth vaccine accepted under the 7-day quarantine measure. All 8 vaccines have been registered by Thailand or certified by the World Health Organization.

 

The ministry has also updated the application process for certificates of entry (COE) to Thailand at the website coethailand.mfa.go.th. Thais and foreigners travelling to Thailand must apply for a COE by filling in the application form and uploading their vaccine certificate documents at the website."

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157938392467050