Worst case scenario: Thailand faces 28,000 new COVID-19 cases PER DAY

[webfact]

Picture: Sanook

 

Thailand faces the grim prospect of 28,000 new COVID-19 cases per day, if adequate preventative measures are not put in place, public health officials said on Sunday.

 

Sophon Iamsirithaworn, the deputy director-general of the Department of Disease Control (DDC) said the worst case scenario would see Thailand 28,000 new cases daily if those infected with the virus do not follow the safety measures.

 

According to the mathematical model used by the DDC to predict the numbers of future cases, the best case scenario would see around 1,300 new cases per day, while the middle prediction would see an average of just over 9,000 new cases per day, Sanook reported. 

 

Dr Sophon also explained how the number of daily new infections could decline if certain preventive measures were enforced.

 

He said that closure of entertainment venues in high risk locations would see cases decline to  7,244 in a worst case scenario, 2,996 in an average scenario and 817 in the best case scenario.

 

However, with a greater number of restrictions being enforced such as closing venues in high risk provinces, enforcing change in personal behaviour, banning group activities and making people work from home, cases would be reduced to 484 in a worst case scenario, 391 average scenario and 303 in best case scenario.

 

Dr Sophon said that in order to reduce the number of new infections, four measures are needed:

 

1. Reduce social gatherings and stop all but essential inter-provincial travel
2. Pro-active screening and vaccination distribution
3. Social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing and use of ThaiChana and MorChana apps under the DMHTTA guidelines.
4. Work from home for employees

 

The news comes as Thailand on Sunday reported almost 1,000 new cases of COVID-19, it’s single biggest jump in new cases to date.

 

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[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, webfact said:

Dr Sophon said that in order to reduce the number of new infections, four measures are needed:

 

1. Reduce social gatherings and stop all but essential inter-provincial travel
2. Pro-active screening and vaccination distribution
3. Social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing and use of ThaiChana and MorChana apps under the DMHTTA guidelines.
4. Work from home for employees

As he has said the above should occur or should have already been done.  However, that's not what occurred.  A day late and a dollar short. Can you imagine a Thai Chana qr code at the entrance to a small village. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[trainman34014]

Reaping the rewards of not preventing interprovincial travel since the start of last week; they are never proactive, always reactive....''Too late the Hangman cried '' !

[DLock]

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

the best case scenario would see around 1,300 new cases per day

 

Thailand will be at 1,300 per day in the next 2 or 3 days....so you can cross off "best case scenario" Sophon.

 

...lets move to middle prediction and see how that pans out...

 

Fail.

[Orac]

So:

 

Wave 2  Samut Songkran mainly migrant workers - fence them in dormitories with barbed wire to stop spread.

 

Wave 3 Bangkok Hi/So middle class entertainment venues - send them to the islands to party....

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, Orac said:

So:

 

Wave 2  Samut Songkran mainly migrant workers - fence them in dormitories with barbed wire to stop spread.

 

Wave 3 Bangkok Hi/So middle class entertainment venues - send them to the islands to party....

I can not say anything negative about your comment because it is 100% accurate.

[tingtong]

The "worse case" scenario is grossly underestimated.

Right now still too far from that it may seem crazy...

 

For example I take my native Hungary.

3rd wave peak nearly 10000 new infected found daily, 9.5 million population.

 

If Thailand at " worse case" about to match that, for population size, equal to about 70000 new infected daily.

 

Given that testing is slow here, the chance is even higher many can spread the virus, undetected for longer.

 

But I don't fear such worse case. The new censoring will kick in well before.

 

[Ventenio]

59 minutes ago, webfact said:

worst case scenario

when i read "worst," i think about it like "always" and "never".....  it is the worst.

 

the worst case scenario, to me, is everyone dies, the Earth explodes, the Universe is eaten by a black hole, and 711 stops selling beer!!!!

 

28,000......28,001 is impossible?  lol

[ezzra]

The day the government will finally pull their finger out and take this Covid business seriously and take decisive and painful measures to eradicate this Covid thingy once and for all we all be hearing of it for many months  if not years to come...  

[shady86]

Worst case scenario, just stop all testing and there will be no cases, manipulate all the numbers so everything looks normal. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by shady86

[internationalism]

that high figures infected means around 150 deaths daily.

already the last week in bangkok hospitals beds were full and shortage of tests.

those field hospitals will take time to arrange. It's not only beds, but personel and basic equipment and supplies of ppe

 

[KannikaP]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that closure of entertainment venues in high risk locations would see cases decline to  7,244 in a worst case scenario, 2,996 in an average scenario and 817 in the best case scenario.

Love it how they predict down to ONE person !   LOL

[dennnis]

So, the one year lockdown was just a waste, they only postponed the inevitable. 

[4MyEgo]

Self isolate, social distance when out and about wearing a mask, and wash hands/sanitize as there are B117 mind fields everywhere ATM, that is what I was saying to myself with the upcoming family holiday.

 

But sadly that now has gone out the window as my research suggests that the B117 variant is much deadlier and more contagious than what we have seen in the past and thanks to the inept government for allowing people to travel and spread it all around Thailand now, that said, this is from what I am seeing, i.e. it is causing havoc around other countries, so my chances of getting it staying home, as painful as that maybe as opposed to going on our planned holiday, is much much much less likely, so the math worked.......bummer.

[holy cow cm]

All anyone can think is it is already out of control and they in power dropped the ball entirely. Now let's see how well the economy can survive now. But hey, stop focusing on El Fathead's ministers and them going out to clubs.

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, dennnis said:

So, the one year lockdown was just a waste, they only postponed the inevitable. 

What one year lockdown.  You mean the borders? The rest of Thailand has been open with domestic tourism and life to near normal except for the wearing of masks and using the Thai Chana app when you go in and out of places, that's if they are used at all.  But no real lockdown inside the country.

[pixelaoffy]

2 hours ago, Orac said:

So:

 

Wave 2  Samut Songkran mainly migrant workers - fence them in dormitories with barbed wire to stop spread.

 

Wave 3 Bangkok Hi/So middle class entertainment venues - send them to the islands to party....

Bangkok has The most selfish elitist people I have ever known in my 60 years in this world 

Edited April 12, 2021 by pixelaoffy

[pixelaoffy]

7 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

What one year lockdown.  You mean the borders? The rest of Thailand has been open with domestic tourism and life to near normal except for the wearing of masks and using the Thai Chana app when you go in and out of places, that's if they are used at all.  But no real lockdown inside the country.

Very few use thanchana qr code now 

Edited April 12, 2021 by pixelaoffy

[Nicknoodle]

Can someone please confirm to me what exactly happens to those that test positive in Thailand.

Do they all get hospitalised? Or are there special facilities to house those that do not actually need costly hospital care?

Here in NZ we have quarantine hotels for all returnees (same as thailand), but if someone tests positive then they are moved to a special facility until they recover.
Very few cases are ever hospitalised. 

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, Nicknoodle said:

Can someone please confirm to me what exactly happens to those that test positive in Thailand.

Do they all get hospitalised? Or are there special facilities to house those that do not actually need costly hospital care?

Here in NZ we have quarantine hotels for all returnees (same as thailand), but if someone tests positive then they are moved to a special facility until they recover.
Very few cases are ever hospitalised. 

As of this point in time all are isolated in the hospitals regardless of symptomatic or asymptomatic.  Just the way Thailand has decided to deal with it from the beginning, after a few returning Thais from S. Korea decided the Home quarantine was not for them and went out partying and shopping.  Of course the Migrant workers were locked into their factories and put into a field hospital that was secured by razor wire so none could escape.

Edited April 12, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[J Town]

57 minutes ago, shady86 said:

Worst case scenario, just stop all testing and there will be no cases, manipulate all the numbers so everything looks normal. 

I seem to recall a degenerate reprobate and his administration trying the same thing. Caused a LOT of unnecessary deaths.

[Smilermike]

2 hours ago, Ventenio said:

when i read "worst," i think about it like "always" and "never".....  it is the worst.

 

the worst case scenario, to me, is everyone dies, the Earth explodes, the Universe is eaten by a black hole, and 711 stops selling beer!!!!

 

28,000......28,001 is impossible?  lol

How long has Thailand known about Covid? And yet they still cannot start a national vaccine roll out until October. What the hell are they doing ? Typical thai way. Turn your head away so you cant see it.

[RickBradford]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

The day the government will finally pull their finger out and take this Covid business seriously and take decisive and painful measures to eradicate this Covid thingy once and for all we all be hearing of it for many months  if not years to come...  

You will be hearing about "this Covid thingy" for years more in any case, partly because it is impossible to eradicate, just as it has proved impossible to eradicate colds and influenza viruses.

 

It will only fade out when political leaders realize that Covid has become part of the scenery and stop trying to micromanage it. Given how politicians love the power that an event like this grants them, you are looking at later (years) rather than sooner (months).

[cyril sneer]

45 minutes ago, pixelaoffy said:

Bangkok has The most selfish elitist people I have ever known in my 60 years in this world 

I think it's the same everywhere in Thailand, also includes non-Elites when they get their hands on a large some of money

[smedly]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand faces the grim prospect of 28,000 new COVID-19 cases per day, if adequate preventative measures are not put in place, public health officials said on Sunday

 

Haven't heard too much from the mighty smart Health minister these last few days - it seems that educated and qualified health specialists  are now holding news conferences telling it how it is.

[pixelaoffy]

2 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

You will be hearing about "this Covid thingy" for years more in any case, partly because it is impossible to eradicate, just as it has proved impossible to eradicate colds and influenza viruses.

 

It will only fade out when political leaders realize that Covid has become part of the scenery and stop trying to micromanage it. Given how politicians love the power that an event like this grants them, you are looking at later (years) rather than sooner (months).

Yes so true.  And it's not the Politicians who suffer. They get their salary and expenses and kick backs ..while people who need to live in the real world are restricted .. smash the system ..if only we could 

Edited April 12, 2021 by pixelaoffy

[Excel]

52 minutes ago, pixelaoffy said:

Bangkok has The most selfish elitist people I have ever known in my 60 years in this world 

Actually it is a human cesspit of Elitism and corruption, the two go hand in hand.

[Smilermike]

They have to start acting positively to rid this from Thailand. And if that means stopping people from coming into the country or moving around Thailand so be it! Act decisively and stop faffing about. Enforce  the rules anyone that breaks them put them in prison. You cant rid this country  of Covid if you keep thinking about allowing people in. How do you think this uk strain got here? If they had done this in the beginning, all the businesses would now be  at least trying to make some money rather than every few months open  close open close.  Through not being strong in the 1st instance you are crippling the country to a stage where it will takes decades to get back on its feet if at all.

[Misterwhisper]

Thank you for informing us about the impending disaster AFTER half the population has already embarked on their Songkran travels, taking the virus to all corners of the country.

[brucegoniners]

Nice scare headline.

 

So since things are getting that bad you need to go back into lockdown. Don’t let people travel from provinces with issues like before. And cancel Sonkgran!!!

 

This place is getting as stupid as the USA was under the orange monkey.