4 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

The issue is that people will avoid getting a test if they think they will be incarcerated in a “hospital” if it were to be positive. If they themselves are asymptomatic, likely they will try to fly under the radar.

 

allowing people to isolate at home would at least partially alleviate this problem, but that raises the issue of whether people can be trusted.

That is Western style thinking.  Testing began to falter in Bangkok 2 days back because too many Thai were going to hospitals for tests.

 

 

 

15 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

If it is sinovac...then only half will actually be vaccinated against the virus......scary.

To be fair, the 50% efficacy rate that one reads about for sinovac is against catching the virus. I have read, but do not have a link, that efficacy against moderate and serious symptoms and death is very high, as it is for all the vaccines.

14 minutes ago, phills2k1 said:

serious long-term reprecussions happening to people of all ages, that can impact the rest of your life

do you have the data & studies to back up your claim that is can impact people for the rest of their life?  because i do not see any data that suggests that's the case.  Research is ongoing, so i think it's extremely premature to just assume so.
 

1 minute ago, rabas said:

 

 

 

That is Western style thinking.  Testing began to falter in Bangkok 2 days back because too many Thai were going to hospitals for tests.

 

 

 

I’m a farang, what other thinking do you expect ????.

 

I can believe that too many Thais wanted a test and caused the system to falter, but how many avoided having a test?

2 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

do you have the data & studies to back up your claim that is can impact people for the rest of their life?  because i do not see any data that suggests that's the case.  Research is ongoing, so i think it's extremely premature to just assume so.
 

Plenty of general news articles available, but agreed research is ongoing

3 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

do you have the data & studies to back up your claim that is can impact people for the rest of their life?  because i do not see any data that suggests that's the case.  Research is ongoing, so i think it's extremely premature to just assume so.
 

Research "Long Covid" and you might have an idea of what lingers

 

What Is Long COVID (PASC)? (webmd.com)

 

'Long COVID:' New review adds fresh detail (medicalnewstoday.com)

 

How Common Is ‘Long Covid’? New Studies Suggest More Than Previously Thought (forbes.com)

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Unfortunately the trust factor was violated by the Thais that returned last year from S. Korea, think Little Ghosts, and therefore that is why all are hospitalized for now.

I think (or hope) people would be more compliant this time.  Hopefully, most people realize, this time is for real.

Just now, wensiensheng said:

Plenty of general news articles available, but agreed research is ongoing

Yes, there are some people suffering from post covid infections, but as for people suffering for the rest of their lives is still unknown & certainly far from conclusive  

36 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Just informed that a second infection was found in my condo complex and was escorted to the hospital this morning.  The stairwells where the trash cans are is now being sanitized as well.  46 floors worth of double stairs.  Wonder if there will be a request for all of us in the condo to be tested.  That would surely be an astronomical feat, and a true PITA.

I know it won't happen but last year in Melbourne they locked down not one but three apartment blocks in one part of town ..FOR TWO WEEKS..nearly 2000 people!Only way to stop this outbreak now is by containment only..which means putting whole communities in infectious areas into lockdown..otherwise you have no chance of stopping this now!

1 hour ago, smedly said:

Not sustainable and not the right approach, likely why they are not mass testing apart from not having the resources to do so and not wanting the true spread of infection revealed. 

 

- they will soon run out of places to put people especially those that are not sick

 

- they will soon need these resources for people that are sick

 

- many people don't want to be tested because they will be detained if positive

 

conclusion - idiotic beyond belief 

"- many people don't want to be tested because they will be detained if positive"

conclusion - idiotic beyond belief 

 

I don't think Thailand has any social welfare or fulrlough scheme, so, a positive test could mean loss of income (maybe permanently?), not surprising that people don't want to be tested if that's the case.

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

That maybe correct but what is not revealed is how many people were tested. Each person tested positive receives at least another to confirm and one or two more to see when they are no longer infected. Then you have all the tests carried out in quarantine etc. Its certainly not clear. So the hope of this being 16,000 people tested is highly unlikely.

 

That's fair, the data provided here does not provide this detail. However, assuming those who tested positive were again tested twice, given the relatively low number of positives prior to April 4th, it would not put too much of a dent in the number of unique people tested. Perhaps a thousand at most.

 

We know from the last peak that Thailand can test at least ~30k per day. Will it be enough for this wave? No idea. 

45 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

I think this is the real McCoy......this is Thailand's March 2020.....but this time we have a variant that is much more transmissible and a population fed up with lockdowns/loss of income......and possibly blasé after last year's non-event.

 

Unless there is something close to a miracle, I think we will see huge numbers of infections......the vaccine is too late to save us.......whether this translates into deaths....who knows?

I don't think they took the threat of the variants very seriously.As to the deaths with 36 cases considered serious and 9 on ventilators thats not looking good either.I think they might be adopting the herd immunity method they used with the migrant workers in Samut Sakhon accept it's the whole country that's locked up and they're not singling anybody out, it's all in and survival of the fittest.Prayute may also be destined for inactive duties as a result.

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Not thinking this through are you.  Many companies as well as the government have announced they will be moving back to allowing workers to work from home.  Not sure about the factory workers.  Sounds also like schools may be taking a hit and going back to online studying as well.  Hope for the best but prepare for the worst and always have a contingent plan is my motto.  We have been schooling the GF's daughter at home since the term ended at the end of March, even on our holiday in Chiang Mai.

I would expect the vast majority of those that left Bangkok won’t be from government jobs or have jobs that can be done online 

 

Some companies will be jumping at the chance to dock wages 

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

it's all in and survival of the fittest.

....and those who are vaccinated....oh! The politicians!!!!

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I don't think they took the threat of the variants very seriously.As to the deaths with 36 cases considered serious and 9 on ventilators thats not looking good either.I think they might be adopting the herd immunity method they used with the migrant workers in Samut Sakhon accept it's the whole country that's locked up and they're not singling anybody out, it's all in and survival of the fittest.Prayute may also be destined for inactive duties as a result.

Hopefully there will be a more permanent solution for him, his incompetent government and anybody else in their circle of corrupt knob heads

14 minutes ago, DerbyDan said:

I wipe my entire body with 70% alcohol from the pharmacy.

 

It makes me feel much cleaner. Every time I take a dump, or return from outside I use it.

 

I kill all the germs.

I do something similar....but restrict it to my digestive tract.

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Research "Long Covid" and you might have an idea of what lingers

 

What Is Long COVID (PASC)? (webmd.com)

 

'Long COVID:' New review adds fresh detail (medicalnewstoday.com)

 

How Common Is ‘Long Covid’? New Studies Suggest More Than Previously Thought (forbes.com)

 

I knew I messed up when I forgot to include the word "potentially" for rest of their lives.  This is what people like him do. They jump on the semantics or ask you to prove something that they know can't be proven (in this case, it's too new to know for sure if it's the rest of their lives, which is why I'm disgusted at forgetting "potentially") and act as if this makes a material point.

 

Hand up, that's on me. And we certainly don't know if these long haul covid impacts or lung damage are permanent, but we also don't know that they aren't.

 

What we do know is that these are serious and SO FAR life-altering consequences occurring to lots of people who survive (including the young and healthy). To act like they're not happening or aren't significant because we don't have data to show whether they're permanent are beyond disingenuous and insanity

35 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I can't find the section in the book where Gov ministers party at ThongLo then kick off a third wave.Is that part in the book's appendix?Maybe they use a different book here in Thailand!

"Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has ordered officials in all state agencies to work at home until the end of the month if possible and recommended that the private sector follow suit, to help to contain the spread of the third outbreak.

Dr Opas said limiting the movement of people would curb the pandemic. Every province could play a key role." 

 

Limiting the movement of people???? :))))))))).  Hmmmm.  Sure. Encouraging people to travel, but they want limited movement. I guess the solution to this oximoron can be found in the different book the poster was refferring to. Jesus they are dumb. We are doomed.

9 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Research "Long Covid" and you might have an idea of what lingers

 

What Is Long COVID (PASC)? (webmd.com)

 

'Long COVID:' New review adds fresh detail (medicalnewstoday.com)

 

How Common Is ‘Long Covid’? New Studies Suggest More Than Previously Thought (forbes.com)

i know about long covid. and yes, people can  have lingering symptoms after, but no where has there been studies or data that conclude it will effect people for the rest of their lives, which is the point i was making. 

1 hour ago, wasabi said:

At some point will herd immunity occur without vaccines? I have very little faith in Thailand's vaccination program but at some point most of the population will have had Covid. I know this is not the desirable way to manage a pandemic but not sure if there is any other way out here? Then again perhaps all the different variants make it impossible without a vaccine?

 

Sweden has tried it for 13 months, had the highest death numbers in the world per 100,000 inhabitants and they are still very far from it. With number of re-infections rising, anti-bodies providing immunity for 6 to maximum 12 months it seems, I'd say never.

 

Different variants are no problem but will take time, it's relatively easy to combine vaccines to give broader coverage.

 

Meanwhile in Pattaya, lots of houses in the village where I live are throwing Songkran parties for friends and relatives to get drunk. The very big house behind mine, owned by a rich family from Bangkok and only used once or twice a year, is now occupied once again, presumably by refugees from the Bangkok outbreak. I was in Siamburi's yesterday and have never seen it so busy, I got chatting with two elderly guys and they were down from Bangkok for the duration.

 

The politicians have clearly lost the plot, the entire country should be under the strictest of lockdowns again, not gadding around in Pattaya drinking booze in people's homes and shopping. One guy even told me that he'd been drinking in an LK Metro gogo bar the night before, everything's closed in Bangkok, he moaned, we have to come to Pattaya for entertainment now. Forgive my ignorance, but aren't all the bars in Pattaya supposed to be closed too?

 

But hey, we'll all be welcoming foreign tourists with open arms in two months according to TAT, so everything must be fine.

54 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Would take a very, very long time and the country would be devastated beforei t happened.

 

Even in the very worst hit places, where health systems collapsed etc, herd immunity has not been reached.

 

Vaccination is the only viable way out of this. Unfortunately the government badly dropped the ball on that and has been way too slow. perhaps due to initial over-complacency.

The Gov has taken a deliberate decision to go the natural herd immunity route as all their decisions have been deliberate though they may not have know what they were doing. 

FYI, these are two charts the MoPH produced earlier this week on Thailand's national supply of hospital beds to deal with COVID cases, and then the second chart pertaining to the Bangkok region.

 

In the first chart below, I believe the first line of data pertains to the Bangkok region, the second line elsewhere, and then the third line national totals.

 

[I added some basic EN translations to the best of my understanding. Obviously, the occupancy and available beds numbers are changing pretty much daily].

 

 

 

21 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

To be fair, the 50% efficacy rate that one reads about for sinovac is against catching the virus. I have read, but do not have a link, that efficacy against moderate and serious symptoms and death is very high, as it is for all the vaccines.

This is a headline in Hungary:

People vaccinated with the Chinese vaccine have been warned: "protect yourself as if you had not been vaccinated"

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157949376352050

 

 

How about Buriram? Surprise, no cases!?!

 

"Frontline medical staff are exhausted looking after the rising number of patients in the third wave of Covid-19 infections. Though Thais are blessed with a strong medical sector and the caring hands of doctors and nurses, each one of us can help by strictly following health advice and protective measures."

 

https://www.facebook.com/NationNews/posts/10157913328786937

 

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

I'm not as concerned by the number , as the number they have either turned away from testing for having no beds available, or have put off testing due to cost

They admitted as much at the start of the pandemic.Now they might realise that it's going to cost a whole lot more by going the cheap way.Like I keep telling the misses cheaper is rarely cheaper it's false economy but it's endemic here in Thailand.

As part a Turing puzzle competition......can anyone throw some light on the ordering of this data?

7 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

i know about long covid. and yes, people can  have lingering symptoms after, but no where has there been studies or data that conclude it will effect people for the rest of their lives, which is the point i was making. 

I guess that would depend on how old you are when you suffer lingering affects such as serious lung damage, organ damage, or the effects of a stroke which covid can also cause. I'd say its a safe to bet it can certainly hinder some with a disability for the rest of their lives

Seems straightforward to me they are going for herd immunity

 

They have ensured that they have supplies sufficient for the important people and the head of the trough have already been jabbed and can afford to isolate whilst the infection burns

 

Think about it when there was no vaccine they locked down now there is enough for the important gene....mmm  sorry ministers and their backers they have actively encouraged interprovincial travel

 

Big benefits for the important folk no need to invest in no pesky vaccine or kow tow to fallangs for their vaccines and they will still have their big piles of loot when the dust settles and the graveyards are full

 

I am not even joking, that's the scary bit....