Lockdown proposed for Bangkok and five other Deep Red zone provinces

[Jonathan Swift]

On 4/28/2021 at 4:35 PM, richard_smith237 said:

I think a lockdown is inevitable. 

 

But, lets not panic - the numbers in Thailand are still far far less than exist in our home countries. 

 

That said, the ‘whole numbers’ are somewhat irrelevant and simply depend on the amount of people tested. 

If Thailand were to test 100,000 random cases per day, how many of those would be positive. 

400,000 per day? how many of those?

Testing 3000 people per day who have symptoms or been exposed to someone with symptoms or have tested positive is a highly misleading observation / metric of the true picture of the Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand. 

 

 

Of far greater significance is: 

1) Number of People who have died because of Covid-19

2) Number of People in ICU because of Covid-19 (and available beds)

3) Number of serious Covid-19 cases (i.e. Number of people in hospitals requiring treatment for Covid-19)

 

 

Thailand still needs to concentrate on getting the Vaccines distributed as quickly as possible. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow! Common sense! I'm impressed! Are you listening, silly people whose mouths are bigger than your brains? 

[Danderman123]

39 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Any positivity rate over 5% indicates just that, its over 5%. It can decrease from 10 to 5 to 1 it depends which way its heading and as I already mentioned it is stablized if you do the math

 

Please point me to the link and relevant data set that you refer to which shows a decrease in detection rates?

The dataset I refer to is the 50,000 test set with the 4% positivity rate. That indicates a future reduction in new infections. 

 

Here is guidance from John Hopkins on positivity rate:

 

The higher the percent positive is, the more concerning it is. As a rule of thumb, however, one threshold for the percent positive being “too high” is 5%. For example, the World Health Organization recommended in May that the percent positive remain below 5% for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening.

Edited April 29, 2021 by Danderman123

[Susco]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The dataset I refer to is the 50,000 test set with the 4% positivity rate. That indicates a future reduction in new infections. 

Everyone knows that the lower the positive rate, the better.

 

What you fail to understand is that Bkkbrian has explained that there is no test with 50K different people, but that the number includes repeat test of the same people

[Bkk Brian]

36 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The dataset I refer to is the 50,000 test set with the 4% positivity rate. That indicates a future reduction in new infections. 

 

Here is guidance from John Hopkins on positivity rate:

 

The higher the percent positive is, the more concerning it is. As a rule of thumb, however, one threshold for the percent positive being “too high” is 5%. For example, the World Health Organization recommended in May that the percent positive remain below 5% for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening.

You're not referring to any data set. Where are you getting this figure from last week? You need to provide a link, then find the actual data set, you will need the positive cases per day, the daily tests per person per day.

 

You have not done that you're just claiming a random figure, hardly appropriate now is it.

 

I'm quite aware what the detection rates signify no need from the link you provide as WHO provides all the advice needed.

 

So waiting on the link and data from your side?

 

P.S. let me help you a little, you can find the raw data here https://service.dmsc.moph.go.th/labscovid19/indexen.php

 

You will need to download the excel files, then check the documentation, can you read what it says? Includes repeat tests. In addition the daily case count does not match official daily case count, another hint that this is raw data.

Edited April 29, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[berybert]

On 4/28/2021 at 4:36 PM, ukrules said:

I wonder if a lockdown goes far enough here?

 

They should be prevented from leaving the locked down area and entering other provinces.

 

I live in Hua Hin where many people who live in Bangkok have holiday homes and I have to wonder how many 1000's of Bangkok based Thais will make their way to Hua Hin bringing COVID with them when they come.

 

Look what happened last time someone with COVID came to Hua Hin from Bangkok - it was reported on this forum earlier today that 90% of the 1034 Hua Hin cases were related to a single event (a concert) attended by at least one infected person who previously visited the Thonglor hotspot in Bangkok.

 

Keep them out of the provinces!

 

Does a lockdown go far enough ?

Are you suggesting people with Covid in Bangkok should be shot ?

[HandsomeTallFarang]

“Lockdown everything! Forever! It’s a doomsday virus and nobody should ever be able to do anything except receive food delivery, work from home, and watch Netflix in their downtime.”

 

 

[casey1]

17 hours ago, possum1931 said:

Yes, but Australia has a proper government, elected by the people, and served by very well educated politicians. 

What has Thailand got? I rest my case.

What...scomo??? pull your head out.... the guy whom has been pretty much a fail at everything he has done except line his pockets... oh wait that's pretty much politicians everywhere.... but still giggling at proper government and educated politicians....thats simply wonderful...lmao followed closely by rofl

[casey1]

12 hours ago, Surelynot said:

So 4% testing positive.........say one in one in twenty........not good.

testing positive is misleading... should be testing positive AND having serious health effects as a result.... really we should be aiming for 100% testing positive BUT minimal health effects .which equates to typical virus behaviour in people. and covid is merely a typical virus......positive test result is a meaningless figure unless you want hysteria or control of the people...

[metisdead]

A post with a trolling video has been removed. 

[NoshowJones]

3 minutes ago, casey1 said:

What...scomo??? pull your head out.... the guy whom has been pretty much a fail at everything he has done except line his pockets... oh wait that's pretty much politicians everywhere.... but still giggling at proper government and educated politicians....thats simply wonderful...lmao followed closely by rofl

What is scomo? what/who is Imao? What/who is rofl?

I am well aware of politicians lining their own pockets. Senior politicians in western countries have the education and brains to get away with corruption and telling blatant lies to their people, but the unelected "PM" in Thailand does not have the brains or education to do that. He makes it so obvious every time he opens his mouth.

He is only at the head of the country because he took it by force.

 

 

[BernieOnTour]

17 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Here are the testing figures up till yesterday https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

The figure of 50k+ you refer to is from raw data that includes many repeat tests and cannot be used to determine accurate detection rates unless you want to speculate. The figures in the chart is actual people tested.

 

Comparing such numbers to European countries has its difficulties, due to the different approach...

 

In most European countries, the PCR test capacities go into the 100-thousands per week. They, to say it vividly, “test into the darkness”, most people tested without any evidence for a SARS-CoV2 infection. It’s mass testing. That’s not only a question of capacities, but also budgets (I remember reading somewhere, the costs for testing in the UK are similar to the annual budget of the NHS - maybe, someone could try to verify or refute it).

 

Thailand, with its constrictions on capacities and funds, is still more selective. They have to concentrate more on contact tracing (IMHO astonishingly good at this), people with symptoms and clusters. Same as in the first months last year in Europe, when capacities and logistics had still to be ramped up, this leads to a higher percentage of positives.

 

[BernieOnTour]

13 hours ago, HandsomeTallFarang said:

“Lockdown everything! Forever! It’s a doomsday virus and nobody should ever be able to do anything except receive food delivery, work from home, and watch Netflix in their downtime.”

 

 

 

As someone, who -as a youngster- had still contact with people, who experienced WW2, some even WW1, 

 

I am immediately getting wary,

when the term “Hero” is being used ....

 

(However, maybe I misunderstood you and your post was sarcastic ...)

Edited April 30, 2021 by BernieOnTour

[Andrew65]

On 4/28/2021 at 10:27 AM, holy cow cm said:

Here we go again. time to go out and double up on some food and alcohol again.

A bit like having a Buddha Day every day!????

[brewsterbudgen]

4 minutes ago, Andrew65 said:

A bit like having a Buddha Day every day!????

Fortunately there hasn't been an alcohol purchasing ban this time! 

 

[casey1]

15 hours ago, possum1931 said:

What is scomo? what/who is Imao? What/who is rofl?

I am well aware of politicians lining their own pockets. Senior politicians in western countries have the education and brains to get away with corruption and telling blatant lies to their people, but the unelected "PM" in Thailand does not have the brains or education to do that. He makes it so obvious every time he opens his mouth.

He is only at the head of the country because he took it by force.

 

 

scomo= Scott Morrison ... now did he really get to be head of Australia by popular vote.......scomo is so busy lining his pockets and that of his cronies that it is farcical... NZ booted him out once they realized what thieving ba'tard he was (NZ employed him as a Tourism guru but was sacked before his term was half way over monies) and then he re-emerged as Australian PM....

To say he is better than an unelected PM because he has education and brains to get away with it is just plainly wrong... and I make note that despite acquiring power unelected, there was no bloodshed, and Thai PM has brought stability to a country that was approaching a true Mexican standoff in it's politics, most Thai whom venture an opinion about him will say he is self serving, dull as dishwater, but stable and most people could once again get on with their lives without interruption... that's not a bad thing

 

And when we pull the blinkers off and compare apples with apples... real death rates .. Thailand has done so much better than many so called first world countries....

 

lmao= laughing my <deleted> off....rofl= rolling on the floor laughing which were made in the posters comparison to Australia being better than Thailand

[NoshowJones]

9 hours ago, casey1 said:

scomo= Scott Morrison ... now did he really get to be head of Australia by popular vote.......scomo is so busy lining his pockets and that of his cronies that it is farcical... NZ booted him out once they realized what thieving ba'tard he was (NZ employed him as a Tourism guru but was sacked before his term was half way over monies) and then he re-emerged as Australian PM....

To say he is better than an unelected PM because he has education and brains to get away with it is just plainly wrong... and I make note that despite acquiring power unelected, there was no bloodshed, and Thai PM has brought stability to a country that was approaching a true Mexican standoff in it's politics, most Thai whom venture an opinion about him will say he is self serving, dull as dishwater, but stable and most people could once again get on with their lives without interruption... that's not a bad thin

 

And when we pull the blinkers off and compare apples with apples... real death rates .. Thailand has done so much better than many so called first world countries....

 

lmao= laughing my <deleted> off....rofl= rolling on the floor laughing which were made in the posters comparison to Australia being better than Thailand

I know nothing about Australian politics, but I will never accept that any western country has a PM who is as unfit to run a country as the present unelected Thai "PM". Just take a look at the reports in the Thaivisa Newsletter, and the opinions of the vast majority of members and you will maybe get a better idea of how unfit he is to run Thailand.

[ChipButty]

16 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Fortunately there hasn't been an alcohol purchasing ban this time! 

 

Dont give them any ideas

[casey1]

6 hours ago, possum1931 said:

I know nothing about Australian politics, but I will never accept that any western country has a PM who is as unfit to run a country as the present unelected Thai "PM". Just take a look at the reports in the Thaivisa Newsletter, and the opinions of the vast majority of members and you will maybe get a better idea of how unfit he is to run Thailand.

If you know nothing about Australian politics then you are unable to qualify your claims about the Thai PM... for that matter someone like a recent US president could claim the same unfit credentials you claim the Thai PM has... and shall we stop there or open our eyes and go looking at some of these "qualified" leaders...Trudeau from Canada has some serious dark secrets that he doesn't want the world to know... current politics in Uk ..just a cesspool of flotsam and sleaze...

 

Thaivisa memebers and Thaivisa Newsletter are nothing more than people whom can be bothered to openly comment..and do not necessarily represent the vast majority, certainly here in Thailand Thaivisa represent perhaps a very niche section of Thai community in general and certainly not the everyday Thai citizen

And before you make claims about how important the expats and foreigners are here... think again.... the serious wealth and money through ancestral families leaves all the wealth of recent foreigners as nothing more than a few satang,

 

I am not doubting there are others much better qualified or experienced but one thing the Thai Pm has done without a doubt is bring stability to where there was nothing but escalating ridiculousness in politics which was affecting everyday lives of everyday people.....

 

Instead of being openly negative of him try looking at grass roots up perspective.... because those people make the rich people rich...

Those people have had a level of support throughout covid which minimal by western standards has kept the wolves at bay and allowed people still to live....not just survive...

 

 

 

[holy cow cm]

23 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Fortunately there hasn't been an alcohol purchasing ban this time! 

 

I am now as of today stocked up for 2 weeks, or 3 weeks if I go light on the sauce.

[holy cow cm]

On 4/29/2021 at 8:51 PM, berybert said:

Does a lockdown go far enough ?

Are you suggesting people with Covid in Bangkok should be shot ?

No, but a lockdown + throwing the Junta and its party stooges out into the sewers may be just the right change.

[moe666]

On 4/28/2021 at 4:36 PM, ukrules said:

I wonder if a lockdown goes far enough here?

 

They should be prevented from leaving the locked down area and entering other provinces.

 

I live in Hua Hin where many people who live in Bangkok have holiday homes and I have to wonder how many 1000's of Bangkok based Thais will make their way to Hua Hin bringing COVID with them when they come.

 

Look what happened last time someone with COVID came to Hua Hin from Bangkok - it was reported on this forum earlier today that 90% of the 1034 Hua Hin cases were related to a single event (a concert) attended by at least one infected person who previously visited the Thonglor hotspot in Bangkok.

 

Keep them out of the provinces!

 

A friend who  lives in Kanchanaburi had to go to Bangkok for some business. Thinking he would go back to BKK with the girlfriend he was in for a rude shock no way he was told. He could leave to go to BKK but there would be no return trip. Probably same for Hua Hin

[Metapod]

7 hours ago, moe666 said:

A friend who  lives in Kanchanaburi had to go to Bangkok for some business. Thinking he would go back to BKK with the girlfriend he was in for a rude shock no way he was told. He could leave to go to BKK but there would be no return trip. Probably same for Hua Hin

 

 I know at least 10 people that went from Bangkok to Huahin and back over the weekend. None of them had an issue.