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Pattaya A Dead or Dying City?


Pilotman

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46 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

Maybe you could enlighten me (No pun intented)

all these condos units are build for who exactly?

Anyone who will buy them. Which may include buy to rent, those living in Bangkok during the week and those overseas who visit occasionally. Be happy to have no neighbours, they are the best kind!

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4 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

Maybe you could enlighten me (No pun intented)

all these condos units are build for who exactly?

i live here and from my observations (Yes the lights at the window in the evening

are a pretty good indication) the occupation rate in most of these towers is around

5 to 10%, it's ridiculous !

     Even pre-covid, the old chestnut of lights on at night was not a good indicator for condo sales.  (Although it can be a good indicator for hotels.  I now look out from my condo and I can check how some of the big north Pattaya hotels are doing.)  

    Many condos are owned by absentee owners.  I used to live at Lumpini Park Beach and my condo looked out at Building C--thirty stories of mostly 28sqm condos, about 10 or 12 on each side per floor.  Ideal for weekends at the beach.   So, around 300 condo windows I was looking at--and usually maybe 6 or 8 windows lit at night during the week.  I could tell the units were sold because almost all the windows had a wide variety of window treatments--except a few units here and there that hadn't been sold.  

    1800 units at the 3 building project and in those days of few illegal daily rentals they only had to put out about a dozen sun lounges at each of the two pools.  This was just before Airbnb took off and most of the condos were owned by Bangkok owners--who hardly ever came except on holiday weekends.  

    I think with older projects you will see more than 5 to 10% occupation.  But, with many of the newer projects, multiple units were bought by some buyers to rent out as illegal short-term hotel rooms.  I know of at least one case where an owner had bought 30 units or more.  With no international tourists, most of these units are sitting empty.  

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2 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Anyone who will buy them. Which may include buy to rent, those living in Bangkok during the week and those overseas who visit occasionally. Be happy to have no neighbours, they are the best kind!

 

My question wasn't if someone will buy it or not

i was specifically asking for what use all of these condos were?

I mean most of them are empty all year long

yes i agree it's good to not have neighbours

but still, it doesn't make any sense

the rents are very cheap, there are hotels rooms available everywhere

for all the budgets so if you come from Bkk time ot time

or if you live overseas most of the time, what is the point to buy your own condo?

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9 minutes ago, newnative said:

     Even pre-covid, the old chestnut of lights on at night was not a good indicator for condo sales.  (Although it can be a good indicator for hotels.  I now look out from my condo and I can check how some of the big north Pattaya hotels are doing.)  

    Many condos are owned by absentee owners.  I used to live at Lumpini Park Beach and my condo looked out at Building C--thirty stories of mostly 28sqm condos, about 10 or 12 on each side per floor.  Ideal for weekends at the beach.   So, around 300 condo windows I was looking at--and usually maybe 6 or 8 windows lit at night during the week.  I could tell the units were sold because almost all the windows had a wide variety of window treatments--except a few units here and there that hadn't been sold.  

    1800 units at the 3 building project and in those days of few illegal daily rentals they only had to put out about a dozen sun lounges at each of the two pools.  This was just before Airbnb took off and most of the condos were owned by Bangkok owners--who hardly ever came except on holiday weekends.  

    I think with older projects you will see more than 5 to 10% occupation.  But, with many of the newer projects, multiple units were bought by some buyers to rent out as illegal short-term hotel rooms.  I know of at least one case where an owner had bought 30 units or more.  With no international tourists, most of these units are sitting empty.  

I don't talk about the condo sales

but about the effective occupancy rate of the building

and as for the hotels, in this way the lights are a very good indication

 

I still don't see the point to build all these condos when there is NOBODY living inside

if it's just a way to ''park'' money for wealthy people for differentreasons (Most of these reasons beign illegal) isn't this called a bubble in the making ?

Edited by kingofthemountain
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8 minutes ago, Beckham Beach said:

33,000 people a year die in traffic accidents in Thailand, that's 3.3% of the population will die this way. Only 500 from Covid so far, yet they have trashed the economy with COVID lockdowns. Why not ban cars if they really care about people? Which they don't, hence the appalling state of the Thai education system which produces seniority loving idiots, charming yes, but able to think for themselves, not really!! Such a shame, Thailand deserves so much better.

 

If you can not do a simple % calculation I doubt your ability to construct a reasoned argument or comment. 

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8 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

My question wasn't if someone will buy it or not

I quoted your question so know what it was, just to help....  it was' who are they building them for'. ? My reply stands.

Bangkok people like to buy condos because sometimes their city is under water. They also would like to have a place by the sea. Your own place, ready to use, is far superior to a hotel room, allowing you to park belongings....  even the motorbike. 

Some see it as an investment, some a way to launder money, if I was a little richer I might keep one in town myself. 

 

Edited by jacko45k
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54 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

I'm not much interested in any condo in Thailand, but I think it's a known fact that several of the7 View Talay's, which you claim are all success projects, have still plenty of unsold units. Coincidentally, it are the later projects.

 

 

I thought I read in the news that the successful Raimon land is going through a bankruptcy court to sort 7 Billion in debt. Clearly they have built a lot, but if so successful, they would not have 7 billion in debts

     There are certainly unsold mostly lower floor units at the View Talays.  Buyers want a seaview and some want foreign name.  However, I think the majority of the units have been sold at all of them and the developer has made a profit--especially as they came as shells without even a finished  floor but could still be sold at a good markup as there was little competition at the time.  Might be a different story today.  

   I don't know what is happening with Raimon Land elsewhere but I think the 3 projects here were successful.  Northshore is certainly sold out and the majority of the units at Unixx and Zire have been sold. 

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15 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

I don't talk about the condo sales

but about the effective occupancy rate of the building

and as for the hotels, in this way the lights are a very good indication

 

I still don't see the point to build all these condos when there is NOBODY living inside

if it's just a way to ''park'' money for wealthy people for differentreasons (Most of these reasons beign illegal) isn't this called a bubble in the making ?

      You may not 'see the point' but it's the developers who do see the point and are building 'all these condos'.   As I said in my earlier post, most of the projects in Pattaya have been successful.  The developers have, so far, been able to find buyers for what they build.  Even now, a huge, new luxury project--Arom Wongamat--is getting started.  50 stories proposed with a starting price of around 6MB for the smallest unit size.  Will it be able to find enough buyers?  Time will tell.  

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I hope it works to start luxury condo projects in Pattaya. Because the area has so long been a favourite for expats a lot of the houses are dated and you don't see a lot of these new modern villas which abound in Koh Samui. Pattaya could do with a bit of luxury housing. Not the shoe box condos, but real luxury modern houses are in short supply in Pattaya.

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39 minutes ago, newnative said:

But, with many of the newer projects, multiple units were bought by some buyers to rent out as illegal short-term hotel rooms.  I know of at least one case where an owner had bought 30 units or more.  With no international tourists, most of these units are sitting empty.  

 

You are in this trade, so you know very well what is going on.

 

From the newer projects, a high percentage was sold on finance, mainly developer finance, as they were desperate to load off their units.

 

I'm curious to know how much of his finance the guy with the 30 empty units has paid over the last 18 months, and how the developer gonna absorb this, because his finance with the bank has still to be paid.

 

You also know that what I mention here was the death sentence for New Nordic, but he will not be the last one

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1 hour ago, newnative said:

      You may not 'see the point' but it's the developers who do see the point and are building 'all these condos'.   As I said in my earlier post, most of the projects in Pattaya have been successful.  The developers have, so far, been able to find buyers for what they build.  Even now, a huge, new luxury project--Arom Wongamat--is getting started.  50 stories proposed with a starting price of around 6MB for the smallest unit size.  Will it be able to find enough buyers?  Time will tell.  

Again you missed my point

the problem is most of these buildings are empty shells

with nobody living inside, that's not really a problem when

the tourism is flowing, because short timers make up the difference

but actually if you live here you can see how Pattaya is depopulated

with not even enough people to sustain most of the local businesses

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2 hours ago, newnative said:

     Even pre-covid, the old chestnut of lights on at night was not a good indicator for condo sales.  (Although it can be a good indicator for hotels.  I now look out from my condo and I can check how some of the big north Pattaya hotels are doing.)  

    Many condos are owned by absentee owners.  I used to live at Lumpini Park Beach and my condo looked out at Building C--thirty stories of mostly 28sqm condos, about 10 or 12 on each side per floor.  Ideal for weekends at the beach.   So, around 300 condo windows I was looking at--and usually maybe 6 or 8 windows lit at night during the week.  I could tell the units were sold because almost all the windows had a wide variety of window treatments--except a few units here and there that hadn't been sold.  

    1800 units at the 3 building project and in those days of few illegal daily rentals they only had to put out about a dozen sun lounges at each of the two pools.  This was just before Airbnb took off and most of the condos were owned by Bangkok owners--who hardly ever came except on holiday weekends.  

    I think with older projects you will see more than 5 to 10% occupation.  But, with many of the newer projects, multiple units were bought by some buyers to rent out as illegal short-term hotel rooms.  I know of at least one case where an owner had bought 30 units or more.  With no international tourists, most of these units are sitting empty.  

That is a long post to say pretty much nothing at all.

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4 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

 

My question wasn't if someone will buy it or not

i was specifically asking for what use all of these condos were?

I mean most of them are empty all year long

yes i agree it's good to not have neighbours

but still, it doesn't make any sense

the rents are very cheap, there are hotels rooms available everywhere

for all the budgets so if you come from Bkk time ot time

or if you live overseas most of the time, what is the point to buy your own condo?

I don't know any owners to ask, but it may be for the same reason that some sucker was always buying a bar that was doomed to fail.

They might have thought they'd get rich renting them out, but if so, they must be having regrets at the moment- best laid plans and all that.

 

As for the buildings that allow illegal short term Air B and B rentals, that's only going to last till the government decides to stop it.

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4 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

Again you missed my point

the problem is most of these buildings are empty shells

with nobody living inside, that's not really a problem when

the tourism is flowing, because short timers make up the difference

but actually if you live here you can see how Pattaya is depopulated

with not even enough people to sustain most of the local businesses

What projects have 'nobody living inside'?  

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1 hour ago, newnative said:

What projects have 'nobody living inside'?  

''Nobody'' was probably not the right word, no need to be anal on

the vocabulary as i am sure that you see what i mean:

a building is depopulated when you have less 5 to 10% annual occupancy rate

 like in most of the recent big towers, few names come to my mind:

Centric sea, Unixx, The base, Supalai mare in Pattaya

all the big towers in Naklua, jomtiem and Na Jomtiem

(I don't list all of the names here, it will be quickly boring, there are so many of them)

 

 

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1 hour ago, kingofthemountain said:

''Nobody'' was probably not the right word, no need to be anal on

the vocabulary as i am sure that you see what i mean:

a building is depopulated when you have less 5 to 10% annual occupancy rate

 like in most of the recent big towers, few names come to my mind:

Centric sea, Unixx, The base, Supalai mare in Pattaya

all the big towers in Naklua, jomtiem and Na Jomtiem

(I don't list all of the names here, it will be quickly boring, there are so many of them)

 

 

       Well, there is covid going on with no international tourists.   Of course there will be fewer occupants than normal--and even in normal times most Pattaya condo projects aren't very full because of absentee owners.    I was just in Centric last week waiting for a termite inspector for a friend's condo and there was a fairly steady stream of people  going in and out of the lobby.  It certainly was not deserted.  Probably the same for most of the other condos you mentioned, as it is with my condo project.  

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10 minutes ago, newnative said:

       Well, there is covid going on with no international tourists.   Of course there will be fewer occupants than normal--and even in normal times most Pattaya condo projects aren't very full because of absentee owners.    I was just in Centric last week waiting for a termite inspector for a friend's condo and there was a fairly steady stream of people  going in and out of the lobby.  It certainly was not deserted.  Probably the same for most of the other condos you mentioned, as it is with my condo project.  

 

Well i could be wrong and you could be right

you are probably better informed than me being in the business

imo the next year should be decisive for the city

even if in theory a building can stay afloat with a very low occupancy rate

as long as the owners paid the building maintenance fees

 

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5 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

you are right, the city is not going to disapear

however the place has already been hit very hard

and it's far from being the end of the tunnel

 

A short video about some locations in Pattaya

for the ones not being here, it gives a good idea of the actual disaster:

 

 

While I'm not in Pattaya to look for myself, I imagine the areas outside the tourist area are surviving fine- ie the residential areas. Pattaya no longer consists of only the tourist area, but many posters seem to ignore that there is a massive part of Pattaya where they will never go eg I've never visited the dark side.

IMO the entire tourist area could vanish and the rest of Pattaya would carry on without it quite nicely.

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1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

While I'm not in Pattaya to look for myself, I imagine the areas outside the tourist area are surviving fine- ie the residential areas.

Well not completely, some struggle..... there are restaurants, some quite large, outside of Pattaya and they seem to be aimed at the traveling domestic tourists. These have been hit by reduced tourist numbers, alcohol sale bans, and eat-in bans. I know of a relatively new place on Hwy 36 that closed, and a particularly large place that must have substantial overheads and investment. I wonder how they would service any borrowing, if they made any. 

I hear the darkside is doing okay.

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22 hours ago, AlfHuy said:

and one even holds my motorbike when I come home

 

Are you sure it's your motorbike?

If youre asking if she grabbed my junk--confirmed---had to use 2 hands naturally.

 

the peaches are hanging low if you wanna get it on the action--juicy and ripe

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8 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

 

Well i could be wrong and you could be right

you are probably better informed than me being in the business

imo the next year should be decisive for the city

even if in theory a building can stay afloat with a very low occupancy rate

as long as the owners paid the building maintenance fees

 

     You're the second poster to think that I am 'in the business'.  I am not.  I don't have a job in real estate.  I am not a developer nor an agent.   I no longer even own a rental condo.  My partner and I have bought rundown condos, fixed them up, and sold them.  That's it.

     I live in Pattaya year-round and I do take an interest in what is going on with the city--not just with condo or housing developments but also with new hotels, new retail, new tourist attractions, etc.   Currently discovering The Darkside after hardly ever venturing there.

     I think you take an interest, as well.  I try to be a 'glass half full' guy so it's encouraging when I see some glimmers of hope here and there in this difficult time--a new highrise hotel still going up,  a small boutique hotel doing some fixing up during this down time.  A restaurant managing to stay open and doing some business. 

    While lights on in a condo project at night is not really an accurate indication of the percentage of units sold, like hotels, it does give some indication that units are occupied.  Although I observed activity at Centric while I was visiting, my partner and I have also noticed a fair number of lights on at night.  The same for the Lumpini Wongamat project we can see from our balcony.  Ditto for Markland and others.  Occupation is light but the projects aren't empty.  Nice to see some lights on, some people still here.

    I think you are right regarding next year.  With condo projects, the monthly maintenance fee being steadily paid by the owners year after year is the key factor in a project staying, as you say, 'afloat'.  A project can do ok even with a certain percentage of the owners being delinquent but there is a tipping point.

     As an owner, I might be more confident in an older project with more individual owners and more owner/occupants than if I was in one of the new projects with so many of the units having been bought to rent out and now sitting mostly empty.  But, they are new projects, should still have a healthy sinking fund, and being new, possibly less going wrong in the short-term to fix.  Having not just given us the virus, the Chinese have also gifted us their curse, 'May you live in interesting times'.   We are. 

    

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10 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

you are right, the city is not going to disapear

however the place has already been hit very hard

and it's far from being the end of the tunnel

 

A short video about some locations in Pattaya

for the ones not being here, it gives a good idea of the actual disaster:

 

 

 

Shocking, and really sad to see. I wonder how many businesses had enough money put aside for more than a year of being closed down? I suspect very, very few.

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13 minutes ago, newnative said:

     You're the second poster to think that I am 'in the business'.  I am not.  I don't have a job in real estate.  I am not a developer nor an agent.   I no longer even own a rental condo.  My partner and I have bought rundown condos, fixed them up, and sold them.  That's it.

     I live in Pattaya year-round and I do take an interest in what is going on with the city--not just with condo or housing developments but also with new hotels, new retail, new tourist attractions, etc.   Currently discovering The Darkside after hardly ever venturing there.

     I think you take an interest, as well.  I try to be a 'glass half full' guy so it's encouraging when I see some glimmers of hope here and there in this difficult time--a new highrise hotel still going up,  a small boutique hotel doing some fixing up during this down time.  A restaurant managing to stay open and doing some business. 

    While lights on in a condo project at night is not really an accurate indication of the percentage of units sold, like hotels, it does give some indication that units are occupied.  Although I observed activity at Centric while I was visiting, my partner and I have also noticed a fair number of lights on at night.  The same for the Lumpini Wongamat project we can see from our balcony.  Ditto for Markland and others.  Occupation is light but the projects aren't empty.  Nice to see some lights on, some people still here.

    I think you are right regarding next year.  With condo projects, the monthly maintenance fee being steadily paid by the owners year after year is the key factor in a project staying, as you say, 'afloat'.  A project can do ok even with a certain percentage of the owners being delinquent but there is a tipping point.

     As an owner, I might be more confident in an older project with more individual owners and more owner/occupants than if I was in one of the new projects with so many of the units having been bought to rent out and now sitting mostly empty.  But, they are new projects, should still have a healthy sinking fund, and being new, possibly less going wrong in the short-term to fix.  Having not just given us the virus, the Chinese have also gifted us their curse, 'May you live in interesting times'.   We are. 

    

I don’t think people get that there is a lot of very rich Thais . They have become land rich (land price in a reasonable area is obscene ) in the last 30 years . My BIL owns around 8 condos in various parts of the country that he bought for cash and can’t be bothered with the hassle of renting them out!  and only sees and stays in them if he’s in that area of the country and can even remembers where they are ! Thailand has a lot of very rich people and a growing upper middle class. I think we get blinkered sometimes in Believing that all Thais come from the poorer tourist sectors .  

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