Over to you crypto fanboys

[sharksy]

2 hours ago, josthomz said:

 

I highly doubt this is any different from an investment in let's say purchasing shares from X company. That is unless you yourself take an active role in forging that company's success. But without that being the case, you purchase assets from X company, whether the price will go up or down will depend on many things, none of which you can control. BUT this is very different from 'luck', because while you can't control either of these things, someone else will. When it comes to 'luck' (unless there is foul play in between) nobody can control it. 

 

However this sort of 'random luck' applies only to gambling in a casino. 

 

 

Now let's say, you bet $10,000 that in the next F1 race Lewis Hamilton will win. You could also do an analysis and say that Mercedes has the most suitable car for Baku, you could say that Lewis has won the majority of the races this year....... Does this count as investment or as gambling? It doesn't depend on 'random luck', it depends on Lewis, and Mercedes, and the rest of the pilots, right? 

 

I can not agree with saying that buying Bitcoin is the same as putting money in some machine at the casino, but I could see some similarities between crypto investments and sports bets, horse bets, etc etc. This is what I wanted to say in my original post. Hope it is clearer now.

It doesn't matter if a million people all bet on Hamilton winning, it makes no difference to the outcome.

If those same people put their money into crypto, the crypto price increases - so there will be some winners, assuming they cash out along the way.

[ukrules]

36 minutes ago, sharksy said:

It doesn't matter if a million people all bet on Hamilton winning, it makes no difference to the outcome.

If those same people put their money into crypto, the crypto price increases - so there will be some winners, assuming they cash out along the way.

 

Those of us who bought in years ago have likely already cashed out far more than we ever put into the system. I know I have.

 

[The Cipher]

9 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

then I would seriously consider looking for help for your reading comprehension and analytical skills 

 

<deleted>. You are on to me. Don't tell my boss tho or I might not get to work remotely anymore (which I am really enjoying).

 

But. Never let it be said that I don't at least try. I'm attaching three example one-pagers that applicants had to submit for a senior analyst job focusing on decentralized finance. The applicants had to answer the questions: How would you explain DeFi to a beginner; How would you value a DeFi protocol; and how would you assess safety. Submission limit was one page.

 

Disclaimer: I did not submit any of these and am not affiliated with the account that posted them on a different community. I would normally cite my specific source but don't particularly want to dilute that community via cross-pollination with this one. If you are an owner/creator of these docs and you take exception to me doing it this way, DM me and I will attribute properly. (Although if you have read this far through the thread, I get the feeling you will agree).

 

9 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

so basically, you follow blindly some people advice on some "perceived" respect. Yep, that's the way to do it. Madoff will be proud, young padawan

 

They are, bluntly, better crypto investors than me and understand it far better than I do. If they're chasing Madoff, they're doing it wrong because they forgot to charge me fees lol.

 

Gotta know when someone is better at something than you are so that you can benefit from their knowledge. I have no problem taking advice from bright people who have investment specializations in different areas than me.

 

There's levels to this game, man. ????

 

[fdsa]

@The Cipher @GrandPapillon is a professional troll, don't waste your time.

[gearbox]

On 5/31/2021 at 1:15 AM, GrandPapillon said:

it's not even speculating, it's pure gambling, that is the risk is 10x the returns ????

Gambling works, always works. Just look at the number of Thais around selling lottery tickets. The lure of striking big wins without doing anything with hands or brain is irresistible. The only barrier to it is the government regulation, that's why the gambling is either state owned,  or tightly controlled.

 

I have a friend, a seasoned investor, and in the past we've discussed stocks that would have made quite a bit of money for us, but we missed them. We found the common cause of not getting involved was that we thought there are not enough dumb people to buy the <deleted> product or service from the company X.  Wrong, the number of retards and suckers on the planet Earth is severely underestimated.  Slap "buy this, get rich tomorrow" on the bums of the Kardashians and see the big queues of suckers forming.

[The Cipher]

57 minutes ago, fdsa said:

GrandPapillon is a professional troll, don't waste your time.

 

All good lol. You guys are a fun diversion from work.

 

I don't expect to change anyone's mind by arguing on the internet and am mostly trolling as well.

[GrandPapillon]

1 hour ago, fdsa said:

@The Cipher @GrandPapillon is a professional troll, don't waste your time.

ah the usual from you, can't find counter arguments and will accuse anyone of trolling when you lose the argument ????

[GrandPapillon]

3 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

<deleted>. You are on to me. Don't tell my boss tho or I might not get to work remotely anymore (which I am really enjoying).

 

But. Never let it be said that I don't at least try. I'm attaching three example one-pagers that applicants had to submit for a senior analyst job focusing on decentralized finance. The applicants had to answer the questions: How would you explain DeFi to a beginner; How would you value a DeFi protocol; and how would you assess safety. Submission limit was one page.

 

Disclaimer: I did not submit any of these and am not affiliated with the account that posted them on a different community. I would normally cite my specific source but don't particularly want to dilute that community via cross-pollination with this one. If you are an owner/creator of these docs and you take exception to me doing it this way, DM me and I will attribute properly. (Although if you have read this far through the thread, I get the feeling you will agree).

 

 

They are, bluntly, better crypto investors than me and understand it far better than I do. If they're chasing Madoff, they're doing it wrong because they forgot to charge me fees lol.

 

Gotta know when someone is better at something than you are so that you can benefit from their knowledge. I have no problem taking advice from bright people who have investment specializations in different areas than me.

 

There's levels to this game, man. ????

 

 

I am not sure what is more worrying here, that you believe that "5th grader" garbage above full of contradictions, buzzwords, and non-sense, or that you "believe" and "respect" crypto traders who obviously don't understand financial risks, let alone cryptos risks, and probably read the same non-sense above and think it's all good ????

 

I mean seriously, man, do you actually understand what you read above? it's hilarious, I mean whoever wrote that was taking the <deleted> of cryptos enthusiasts ????

Edited June 1, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[GrandPapillon]

got to hand it to those "crypto" writers, they are creative ????

 

Madoff was also creative when he was doctoring those clients bank statements ????

[GrandPapillon]

45 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

All good lol. You guys are a fun diversion from work.

 

I don't expect to change anyone's mind by arguing on the internet and am mostly trolling as well.

it's an interesting topic for sure, and yes, neither side will change their mind. It's a cult thing for cryptos, no amount of reasoning or logic will prevail ????

 

it's like believing in God, you either believe or don't believe it, it's that binary

[Logosone]

13 hours ago, fdsa said:

I would recommend bitcoinwisdom for watching green and red lights - it's the best (most simple & fast) website among all exchange rate trackers.

 

https://bitcoinwisdom.io/the-heatmap

 

Very interesting. Thank you.

[Logosone]

15 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

Crypto trading is not investing, it's gambling

 

Completely false, GrandPapillon. I have a win rate between70-80% on BTC/USD trades, which I take with a careful risk management. The only difference between investing and gambling, which both wager money on uncertain outcomes is simply likelihood of outcome, risk management, diversification and length of time.

 

You can easily trade Bitcoin with the same differentiators. The reason why I have a win rate of 70-80 per cent on Forex trades is because I have a strategy, I place informed trades, use risk management, different pairs, and I don't hold for just a short time always.

 

The main difference between gambling and investing or trading is just that you have more information, time and better outcome for the latter, but in essence it is also gambling. If it isn't, neither is trading Bitcoin.

[The Cipher]

43 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

or that you "believe" and "respect" crypto traders who obviously don't understand financial risks

 

- GrandPapillon, CFA FRM CQF

 

50 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

I mean seriously, man, do you actually understand what you read above?

 

Nah. Seems complicated. Better left to the pros and seasoned investors, like apparently yourself.

 

Good thing I'm not a professional investor, right?

[gearbox]

25 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Completely false, GrandPapillon. I have a win rate between70-80% on BTC/USD trades, which I take with a careful risk management. The only difference between investing and gambling, which both wager money on uncertain outcomes is simply likelihood of outcome, risk management, diversification and length of time.

 

You can easily trade Bitcoin with the same differentiators. The reason why I have a win rate of 70-80 per cent on Forex trades is because I have a strategy, I place informed trades, use risk management, different pairs, and I don't hold for just a short time always.

 

The main difference between gambling and investing or trading is just that you have more information, time and better outcome for the latter, but in essence it is also gambling. If it isn't, neither is trading Bitcoin.

 

FX trading risk management takes into account things like trade balance, unemployment rates, direction of interest rates, etc. Also with most of the major currencies the governments won't allow much fluctuation and will take measures to stabilize or reverse the course of the currency.

 

What risk management metrics do you apply with crypto? How would you price the risk of someone tweeting something out of nowhere?

[Logosone]

Just now, gearbox said:

 

FX trading risk management takes into account things like trade balance, unemployment rates, direction of interest rates, etc. Also with most of the major currencies the governments won't allow much fluctuation and will take measures to stabilize or reverse the course of the currency.

 

What risk management metrics do you apply with crypto? How would you price the risk of someone tweeting something out of nowhere?

 

Whilst I do look at the fundamentals you mention, and of course the Dollar Index, I was talking purely about trading risk management. That means I put a stop-loss and I always kill a trade when it reaches a certain minus. 

 

The problem with trading is not a losing trade, but in failing to cut the losses or add to a losing position. Risk management in an active trading sense is just that, to cut losses and not to add to a losing position because you're in love with a trade.

 

So in your example let's say someone tweets out of nowhere, something which happened quite a lot when Trump was in power and which affected ALL pairs, not just BTC/USD, the risk is already priced, because I took a stop loss in the size of my strategy, and cut the trade off when it reaches a certain figure.  I already KNOW how much I will lose if I lose. And I do not add if it failed. So you play the numbers, probabilities, and when you have a strategy that gives you at least 70% winners, then in the long run you are bound to win and come out in profit.

[GrandPapillon]

2 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

- GrandPapillon, CFA FRM CQF

 

 

Nah. Seems complicated. Better left to the pros and seasoned investors, like apparently yourself.

 

Good thing I'm not a professional investor, right?

obiously you are not ????

 

" GrandPapillon, CFA FRM CQF" ah only if you knew my qualifications ????

[GrandPapillon]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

Completely false, GrandPapillon. I have a win rate between70-80% on BTC/USD trades, which I take with a careful risk management. The only difference between investing and gambling, which both wager money on uncertain outcomes is simply likelihood of outcome, risk management, diversification and length of time.

 

You can easily trade Bitcoin with the same differentiators. The reason why I have a win rate of 70-80 per cent on Forex trades is because I have a strategy, I place informed trades, use risk management, different pairs, and I don't hold for just a short time always.

 

The main difference between gambling and investing or trading is just that you have more information, time and better outcome for the latter, but in essence it is also gambling. If it isn't, neither is trading Bitcoin.

again trading and speculating is not investment per se,

 

yes you can trade bitcons or other instruments and make bets with better outcome that random casino gambling

 

but for the majority of users with no clue, it's blind casino gambling and why they spread their chips on so many cryptos

[GrandPapillon]

2 hours ago, gearbox said:

 

FX trading risk management takes into account things like trade balance, unemployment rates, direction of interest rates, etc. Also with most of the major currencies the governments won't allow much fluctuation and will take measures to stabilize or reverse the course of the currency.

 

What risk management metrics do you apply with crypto? How would you price the risk of someone tweeting something out of nowhere?

very very good point,

 

don't see how you could apply real risk management in cryptos, I am assuming they mean "diversification" by spreading their money on several cryptos, but that's not real risk management per se

 

gotta love the terms used by the crypto crowd ????

[GrandPapillon]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

Whilst I do look at the fundamentals you mention, and of course the Dollar Index, I was talking purely about trading risk management. That means I put a stop-loss and I always kill a trade when it reaches a certain minus. 

 

The problem with trading is not a losing trade, but in failing to cut the losses or add to a losing position. Risk management in an active trading sense is just that, to cut losses and not to add to a losing position because you're in love with a trade.

 

So in your example let's say someone tweets out of nowhere, something which happened quite a lot when Trump was in power and which affected ALL pairs, not just BTC/USD, the risk is already priced, because I took a stop loss in the size of my strategy, and cut the trade off when it reaches a certain figure.  I already KNOW how much I will lose if I lose. And I do not add if it failed. So you play the numbers, probabilities, and when you have a strategy that gives you at least 70% winners, then in the long run you are bound to win and come out in profit.

that's more about basic trading principles than any kind of actual risk management, but at least you have some kind of system to "manage" your losses, which is not true for the majority of crypto traders who seem to jump left and right on anything that moves ????

[Why Me]

43 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

the majority of crypto traders who seem to jump left and right on anything that moves

Nimbleness is a perquisite of making money in crypto. Because bit coins have no intrinsic value. Their worth is derived from the Greater Fool Theory. So one has to constantly read the hype and buy/sell to stay a step ahead of the "I want to get rich by Friday" horde.

 

Sure it's possible to make money in crypto with a bit of luck but as with all products where there is no there there, you could have your head handed to you any instant.

 

 

Edited June 1, 2021 by Why Me

[Logosone]

39 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

that's more about basic trading principles than any kind of actual risk management, but at least you have some kind of system to "manage" your losses, which is not true for the majority of crypto traders who seem to jump left and right on anything that moves ????

 

Well confining your risk to a certain amount per trade is really basic risk management, which is where stop loss plays a big role. I guess risk management is a basic trading principle in itself.

 

Most traders probably have a risk management system, the problem is not not  having a system, but to stick to the system you have. It's the psychology. As many traders will fall in love with a trade, let it run, or throw more money at a losing trade. That is the real problem. If you walk away and take another trade, even if you lost, that's fine, because you win 70%, so losses are okay. Provided they don't go over your stipulated risk management amount and you don't add to bad trades. Which is actually much harder to do than to write, because of psychology and falling in love with trades.

[Logosone]

49 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

again trading and speculating is not investment per se,

 

yes you can trade bitcons or other instruments and make bets with better outcome that random casino gambling

 

but for the majority of users with no clue, it's blind casino gambling and why they spread their chips on so many cryptos

 

Trading any pair, not just crypto pairs, can be blind gambling. However, when you make informed trades, based on strategy and with risk management, and have a win rate of 70% or more, then you would be distancing yourself from pure casino gambling, ie short term, unlikely gains.

 

After all even long term investing is gambling, wagering money on an uncertain outcome. What makes the difference is information, likelihood of winning, diversification and risk management. But those same things can apply to short term trading as well, including trading BTC/USD.

[Logosone]

51 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

very very good point,

 

don't see how you could apply real risk management in cryptos, I am assuming they mean "diversification" by spreading their money on several cryptos, but that's not real risk management per se

 

gotta love the terms used by the crypto crowd ????

 

It's quite easy to apply risk management when trading crypto pairs like BTC/USD. You place a trade that conforms to your maximum loss and you place a stop loss according to that maximum loss. Then you kill the trade and do not throw money after it when it goes bad. That is real risk management.

 

I don't mean diversification, I simply mean ensuring your losses are not greater than they should be.

[The Cipher]

We're more than 10 pages in at this point lol. I think enough has been posted for interested observers to know who's got the goods and who's fronting.

[Logosone]

12 minutes ago, Why Me said:

Nimbleness is a perquisite of making money in crypto. Because bit coins have no intrinsic value. Their worth is derived from the Greater Fool Theory. So one has to constantly read the hype and buy/sell to stay a step ahead of the "I want to get rich by Friday" horde.

 

Sure it's possible to make money in crypto with a bit of luck but as with all products where there is no there there, you could have your head handed to you any instant.

 

 

 

The whole point of risk management is to avoid having "your head handed to you any instant". It is very easy, in principle, to avoid this in most cases, you simply put a stop loss in place which conforms to your maximum loss that your trading plan can take. Then you don't add to a bad trade.

 

Of course in reality it's extremely hard to do, as people get greedy, put trades bigger than than they can afford, and thus get losses that are bigger than they should be. But if you stick to a risk amount you are able to take, place a stop loss of that amount and kill a trade, then that is perfectly fine. With strategy you can have 70% win trades, so losing 30% of the time is fine if the loss is in your risk management parametres.

[Why Me]

5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

The whole point of risk management is to avoid having "your head handed to you any instant". It is very easy, in principle, to avoid this in most cases, you simply put a stop loss in place which conforms to your maximum loss that your trading plan can take. Then you don't add to a bad trade.

 

Of course in reality it's extremely hard to do, as people get greedy, put trades bigger than than they can afford, and thus get losses that are bigger than they should be. But if you stick to a risk amount you are able to take, place a stop loss of that amount and kill a trade, then that is perfectly fine. With strategy you can have 70% win trades, so losing 30% of the time is fine if the loss is in your risk management parametres.

 

I am sure there is an art to playing the game. But my point wasn't about that. What I was saying is that the ball everyone's chasing in this game is an intrinsically worthless currency. This fact can blow up any instant and leave a lot of dead investors.

[GrandPapillon]

47 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

It's quite easy to apply risk management when trading crypto pairs like BTC/USD. You place a trade that conforms to your maximum loss and you place a stop loss according to that maximum loss. Then you kill the trade and do not throw money after it when it goes bad. That is real risk management.

 

I don't mean diversification, I simply mean ensuring your losses are not greater than they should be.

I don't have the same definition of risk management as you do ????

 

for example, what is your plan B if an exchange collapse or steal your cryptos? same question with someone hacking your account or stealing your USB drive? do have a plan for that? now that would be more risk management ???? not only managing "trading loss" risk

[GrandPapillon]

46 minutes ago, Why Me said:

 

I am sure there is an art to playing the game. But my point wasn't about that. What I was saying is that the ball everyone's chasing in this game is an intrinsically worthless currency. This fact can blow up any instant and leave a lot of dead investors.

and that's the core of problem,

 

trading a volatile asset is one thing, and traders might have strategies to ride those waves and avoid "walls", but that's the definition of a trading strategy, not really risk management for engaging with a particular asset, like banks and professional asset managers do.

 

What happens when you are trying to "play" a rigged game, because at the end, that's what it is. It's unsecure, unregulated, exposed to market manipulation and "trading strategies" seems have to a very short life. You really don't want to be exposed or fall in love with any of those cryptos when the <deleted> hits the fan ???? and no trading strategies or stop loss trading strategies are going to save you from that black hole or fat tail risk.

Edited June 1, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Why Me said:

 

I am sure there is an art to playing the game. But my point wasn't about that. What I was saying is that the ball everyone's chasing in this game is an intrinsically worthless currency. This fact can blow up any instant and leave a lot of dead investors.

 

A lot of financial instruments are "intrinsically worthless" in the sense of not being backed directly by real assets, that doesn't just apply to crypto.  That applies to pretty much all of Forex trading, if you look at any pair even EUR/USD, that pair in and of itself has no "intrinsic worth", same for many financial instruments. It is about playing the game, pitting your wits against other market participants.

 

Even corporates, I mean Lehman Brothers was a corporate entity backed by 600 million worth of assets. Yet it still blew up. Of course this is real life and anything can blow up in an instant. But how likely is that? How often do you see Lehmans collapse. Because it is relatively rare you can play the game and make a lot of money and take risk. Of course blow-ups do happen so that is why you are careful and apply risk management (in the sense of not risking more than your trading plan allows).

 

I mean there will always be winners and losers. That is in the nature of the game.

[Logosone]

54 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

I don't have the same definition of risk management as you do ????

 

for example, what is your plan B if an exchange collapse or steal your cryptos? same question with someone hacking your account or stealing your USB drive? do have a plan for that? now that would be more risk management ???? not only managing "trading loss" risk

 

I look at risk management purely from a trading perspective. I don't hold much crypto coin itself, so if someone did steal them it would be irrelevant, I make money trading crypto pairs like BTC/USD. That means I do not have to hold crypto to make money from crypto, and I can also short BTC, so if it falls I can make money, and if it goes up I can make money.

 

Someone stealing my USB drive? My drives are all backed up in triplicate, I own three laptops, and all are set up to trade with the same software and drives. Just in case.

 

Exchanges collapsing? Come on, man. I don't need an exchange to trade BTC/USD, forex trading is outside stock exchange regulation or other exchange regulation. All I needs is Metatrader 5, Ctrader, and an account with a broker.

 

Of course brokers can collapse. If that happens you are indeed screwed, but there is a way around that. Say you triple your account, as I have done, you then take out the profits and put them on your bank account and only trade with your original account. So you if you lose you don't lose everything.

 

But trading risk management is much more difficult and more interesting.