Over to you crypto fanboys

[The Cipher]

25 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

This is what puzzles me.. I struggle to see the value of bitcoin [as opposed to a credit card or cash even] and sort of view it as a couple of guys saying, lets make our own money, it is not visible or tangible, we'll just say it exists [lets make it rare!! limited quantities ] - - and the 'mining' being a big energy suck - and for what? 

 

I'm just lukewarm on Bitcoin as opposed to something like Ethereum which I am quite bullish on. The first thing you'll want to understand is that each crypto asset is different and each has a different claims as to why they are valuable - propositions which may or may not be true.

 

I am not an expert. But my understanding is that what gives Bitcoin value is that it is a quantity-capped asset that has a big enough first-mover advantage that proponents believe it will mature into basically digital gold. Ie, an asset that has more demand than supply and is thus valuable because of its relative scarcity. I see Bitcoin fans throw out the example pretty frequently that there are ~50 million millionaires in the world, but can only ever be 21 million Bitcoin (assuming no code change), so every millionaire couldn't even own one entire Bitcoin if they theoretically wanted to.

 

41 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

But, my larger question is who started this and why can't it easily be copied? 

 

Well, at the most basic level it can be extremely easily copied. You can go online, see the exact code of Bitcoin, and copy and paste it into a replica whenever you want.

 

But. How would you get anyone to want to buy your replica? Mass demand isn't easy to manufacture, and that's one big thing Bitcoin has going for it.

 

Besides that, there's a dedicated community of folks updating Bitcoin's code to make it faster and more efficient, so if you copy-pasted it, Bitcoin's code would evolve beyond your copy (assuming you weren't updating it).

 

50 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

If one morning there was no more bitcoin, who would you call to get your $$ back from or complain? Is there even an office or a mint? 

 

Short answer: nobody. For better or worse that's part of what 'decentralized' means.

 

Longer answer, you could try and call your exchange to complain, but if Bitcoin itself just vanished then there isn't really anything your exchange could do.

 

Crypto is a largely unregulated space. This means that there's a ton of risk out there with stuff like scams and legal market manipulation. There is no regulator stopping somebody like Elon Musk from Tweeting down the price of an asset when he wants to buy more and Tweeting it up when if wants to sell.

 

Or, more significantly but less obviously, there's nothing stopping big-money players from causing a major price crash via a cascade of leverage liquidations when they want to buy into the market. ????????

 

And there's a ton of other sources of risk too. So. It's a pretty wild ride.

---

And that's why it's important to understand (i) what you're buying; (ii) why you're buying it; (iii) what your time horizon is. Answering those three questions for myself was part of why I prefer Ethereum and DeFi products over Bitcoin personally. You can read a bit about the bull case for Ether here.

---

Ok disclaimer time. Not investment advice. I have a small amount of BTC exposure via an ETF and a larger Ethereum position. Please do your own DD.

[Drew3223]

People are weird aren't they? 

 

"Crypto is down 50%, it's a bubble, etc..."

 

Said by people with zero understanding of what crypto is, the ebbs and flows of the crypto game,  and who begrudge others making money because they don't have the balls to try it themselves...

 

BC rose almost 40% yesterday. You could have made 40% profit in 24 hours.

 

It is now up 2000% on 8 months ago.

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Drew3223

[Titan1962]

The thing I love about crypto.

One minute your walking down the street like Connor Mcgregor entering the ring,arms flapping from side to side like you own the world.

Next minute your flat on your back like Ben Askren wondering what the <deleted> just happened.

Gotta love this space.

[Susco]

22 minutes ago, Drew3223 said:

 

"Crypto is down 50%, it's a bubble, etc..."

 

Said by people with zero understanding of what crypto is, the ebbs and flows of the crypto game,  and who begrudge others making money because they don't have the balls to try it themselves...

 

Well I would agree with you if you consider Bullard and Roubini as people with no understanding about how things work.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6bfa4be4-1ab3-3ede-b8a8-46403948e68a/bitcoin-isn’t-a-currency-or.html

 

Bitcoin isn’t a currency or financial asset, but ‘looks like a bubble’: Roubini

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/st-louis-feds-bullard-most-cryptocurrencies-are-worthless-193226315.html

 

St. Louis Fed's Bullard: Most cryptocurrencies are 'worthless'

 

Instead, the people with zero understanding, are IMO those who base the value of anything on a tweet from Musk.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-rises-near-40k-musk-204206411.html

 

Bitcoin Rises to Near $40K After Musk Tweets About BTC Mining’s ‘Promising’ Renewable Usage

[1FinickyOne]

31 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

I'm just lukewarm on Bitcoin as opposed to something like Ethereum which I am quite bullish on. The first thing you'll want to understand is that each crypto asset is different and each has a different claims as to why they are valuable - propositions which may or may not be true.

 

I am not an expert. But my understanding is that what gives Bitcoin value is that it is a quantity-capped asset that has a big enough first-mover advantage that proponents believe it will mature into basically digital gold. Ie, an asset that has more demand than supply and is thus valuable because of its relative scarcity. I see Bitcoin fans throw out the example pretty frequently that there are ~50 million millionaires in the world, but can only ever be 21 million Bitcoin (assuming no code change), so every millionaire couldn't even own one entire Bitcoin if they theoretically wanted to.

 

 

Well, at the most basic level it can be extremely easily copied. You can go online, see the exact code of Bitcoin, and copy and paste it into a replica whenever you want.

 

But. How would you get anyone to want to buy your replica? Mass demand isn't easy to manufacture, and that's one big thing Bitcoin has going for it.

 

Besides that, there's a dedicated community of folks updating Bitcoin's code to make it faster and more efficient, so if you copy-pasted it, Bitcoin's code would evolve beyond your copy (assuming you weren't updating it).

 

 

Short answer: nobody. For better or worse that's part of what 'decentralized' means.

 

Longer answer, you could try and call your exchange to complain, but if Bitcoin itself just vanished then there isn't really anything your exchange could do.

 

Crypto is a largely unregulated space. This means that there's a ton of risk out there with stuff like scams and legal market manipulation. There is no regulator stopping somebody like Elon Musk from Tweeting down the price of an asset when he wants to buy more and Tweeting it up when if wants to sell.

 

Or, more significantly but less obviously, there's nothing stopping big-money players from causing a major price crash via a cascade of leverage liquidations when they want to buy into the market. ????????

 

And there's a ton of other sources of risk too. So. It's a pretty wild ride.

---

And that's why it's important to understand (i) what you're buying; (ii) why you're buying it; (iii) what your time horizon is. Answering those three questions for myself was part of why I prefer Ethereum and DeFi products over Bitcoin personally. You can read a bit about the bull case for Ether here.

---

Ok disclaimer time. Not investment advice. I have a small amount of BTC exposure via an ETF and a larger Ethereum position. Please do your own DD.

Yes, thanks. I am responsible for my own choices... And I did make a pretty good profit on ETHE... and if I buy in it is not a large % of my portfolio, though due to the fluctuations, it was sort of the monster in the box... any individual company can go "Enron" tomorrow... [I think Ken Lay is alive] -- and so, at this age, [104 yrs old - some days] I am mostly ETF's and mutual funds... I would almost be content w/a decent paying CD... as sleeping well at night is important too... but at this point, it is mostly just making extra for my wife and kid...

 

I had a good long run w/buy and hold... but all interesting subject matter... as an "unregulated" space  as you say and human nature being what it is... there will be no surprises for me... 

 

I also bought gbtc and ethe as I would have no idea how to buy [and I almost wrote 'actual' ] bitcoin... 21 MM bitcoin until someone - who? says, oh, now there is 42MM bitcoin.. we never announced... there is a finite amt of dust in my closet, that doesn't make the existing dust worth more... you understand.. basically, I see it as exxagerated gambling as opposed to moderate ETF gambling.. 

 

7 come 11 better come my way... 

[Danderman123]

It's pretty obvious that Elon is playing with the rubes.

[1FinickyOne]

40 minutes ago, Drew3223 said:

BC rose almost 40% yesterday. You could have made 40% profit in 24 hours.

or you could have bought 1MM shares of DIA and made nearly $2MM 

 

The possibilities in hindsight are near endless... 

[Danderman123]

Someone is going to figure out how to mine Bitcoin in space, using power in space, and make a fortune. Perhaps that will be Elon's play, Bitcoin mining on Mars.

[BumGun]

Bitcoin /=/ Crypto.  Anyone who has actually used Bitcoin realised its pretty useless, but then so is gold. Musk is pump 'n dump in the same way con-artists entrepreneurs  always have.

 

I have had Crypto of various sorts for nearly a decade. because it is damn interesting,  skin in the game as they say.  There are about 1300 tokens/coins of various sorts out there, including now actually ones backed by Government

 

I have Ether, its ACTUALLY useful as in see it is being used for NFTs as it can have contracts attached

 

I have Nano as its actually useful because it is fee free, near instantaneous and no mining (that is the entire Nano crypto network can be run by a single wind turbine)

 

As an avowed Anarchist and with the recent rise of peer-2-peer crypto exchanges we'll see where this super interesting experiment ends up.  I do acknowledge that the vast majority who are in it are there for a quick buck, I find the tech and potential fascinating.

 

For those interested the WSJ is staring to have some decent Crypto coverage

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/upstart-peer-to-peer-crypto-exchanges-take-aim-at-coinbase-11621848601

[The Cipher]

16 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

I also bought gbtc and ethe as I would have no idea how to buy [and I almost wrote 'actual' ] bitcoin... 21 MM bitcoin until someone - who? says, oh, now there is 42MM bitcoin.. we never announced... there is a finite amt of dust in my closet, that doesn't make the existing dust worth more... you understand.. basically, I see it as exxagerated gambling as opposed to moderate ETF gambling.. 

 

If you are retired and expect either you, or your family, to need to rely heavily on your retirement principal at some point, then I'd suggest that you may want to avoid crypto. The amount you'd (probably) have to put in to move the needle on your lifestyle at this point is likely not worth the risk tradeoff to you at this time.

 

If you really do feel the urge to gamble a little bit, at least mentally pretend that everything you put in will go to zero (even if it probably won't), so you'll know if you're really prepared to lose it or not. [But honestly, why risk it? Better to enjoy your retirement. You worked hard for it ????]

[Nemises]

On 5/13/2021 at 5:12 PM, gearbox said:

Spot on...don't gamble, invest in gambling companies.

 

Invest in gambling companies you say?

 

No thanks. At least 15 gambling companies have gone bust in recent years.  
 

https://www.nerdsofgambling.com/gambling-companies-that-went-broke/

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Nemises

[Pravda]

To be honest I opened a trading account and bought some stellar and cardano on the dip

[Sig]

On 5/13/2021 at 3:56 PM, GrandPapillon said:

sorry to say, but this story is credible as much as the next bitcoin ????

 

but good intro, and good narrative ????

Quite humorous when people don't know squat about something but are very ready to criticize it out of their vast store of ignorance. Makes me laugh. And I'm still laughing all the way to the bank with the best performing asset BY FAR in the market. It has quintupled my net wealth in 2 years. I'm actually kind of glad ignoramuses haven't adopted crypto yet. All the more for me.

[Sig]

1 hour ago, Drew3223 said:

People are weird aren't they? 

 

"Crypto is down 50%, it's a bubble, etc..."

 

Said by people with zero understanding of what crypto is, the ebbs and flows of the crypto game,  and who begrudge others making money because they don't have the balls to try it themselves...

 

BC rose almost 40% yesterday. You could have made 40% profit in 24 hours.

 

It is now up 2000% on 8 months ago.

 

Not only do they not have the balls to try, they have spent nearly ZERO time and effort into understanding the technology or just about anything else about any crypto. It's very similar to people who take dogmatic political stands on issues that they only know what some mass media nutcase anchor "journalist" tells them they should believe. These people vote and bring chaos into our society and they also think they know something about crypto of which they know nothing. I hope they never get in. And while the technology changes the world, they can breathe the sand in which their head is buried. 

[Susco]

4 minutes ago, Sig said:

Not only do they not have the balls to try, they have spent nearly ZERO time and effort into understanding the technology or just about anything else about any crypto.

 

Those that have spent some time into understanding, know that crypto is not a technology, but it uses the blockchain technology.

 

6 minutes ago, Sig said:

It's very similar to people who take dogmatic political stands on issues that they only know what some mass media nutcase anchor "journalist" tells them they should believe.

 

You mean those that read Musk's tweets?

[gearbox]

21 minutes ago, Sig said:

Not only do they not have the balls to try, they have spent nearly ZERO time and effort into understanding the technology or just about anything else about any crypto. It's very similar to people who take dogmatic political stands on issues that they only know what some mass media nutcase anchor "journalist" tells them they should believe. These people vote and bring chaos into our society and they also think they know something about crypto of which they know nothing. I hope they never get in. And while the technology changes the world, they can breathe the sand in which their head is buried. 

 

Err...I have been dealing with proper cryptography since mid nineties,  when some of these "crypto" investors were still walking under the kitchen table. I've even met a few times the Aussie who claims to be the Bitcoin inventor, he didn't strike me as brilliant mathematician or cryptographer back then.

 

The crypto currencies game is based on greed, and it can't be subdued. If you tell someone that he can invest in something and make 30x return,  he'll do it, no matter how dumb the investment is. People know that the chance of winning the lottery is very low, but they still buy tickets as the potential return is too high and the greed wins.

 

The only way for the governments to sort out the private crypto currencies is to to completely outlaw them, and this is going to happen gradually, country by country.

[The Cipher]

19 minutes ago, gearbox said:

since mid nineties,  when some of these "crypto" investors were still walking under the kitchen table.

 

Guilty ????

[jesimps]

Musk was manipulating the market for personal gain, he was just the trigger for the present correction which was coming anyway. I think there will be an accumulation phase for a month or two starting at around low 30s high 20s, then on to a new ATH. Of course, it could drop lower, any form of investing which can make you rich quickly can just as quickly clean you out. The investors and traders will continue to make money, it's the speculators who'll be burned. Good advice I think for anyone who's looking to get into cryptos.

I assume the OP knows naff all about crypto investing. Reminds me of the Pattaya critics who've never been to the place.

Edited May 25, 2021 by jesimps

[gearbox]

16 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Guilty ????

What can I say...it is good to be young ????

[Heng]

2 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

If you are retired and expect either you, or your family, to need to rely heavily on your retirement principal at some point, then I'd suggest that you may want to avoid crypto.

 

Sage advice.  I'd go as far to say stay away unless you have other passive income streams (for instance rental income).   When the market is down, just zoom out and do something else... when you're all in, all you're going to do is ruin your health.   When it's up, lock in your profits and add to whatever your passive income mechanism is.  

[Sametboy2019]

I believe after the SEC case with Ripple is concluded regulations will be set which will wipe out alot of cryptos. Whatever you choose to buy make sure it has utility and is environmentally friendly as possible.

[Heng]

5 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

I believe after the SEC case with Ripple is concluded regulations will be set which will wipe out alot of cryptos. Whatever you choose to buy make sure it has utility and is environmentally friendly as possible.

 

One thing we'd see for sure is US capital (crypto related capital) flight.  Things like FATCA 'work' because banks all over the world have to rely on business/banking intermediaries that are based in New York.  Crypto doesn't have a similar choke point to hold over anyone...they can try to force banks to not deal with crypto exchanges but there is no feasible way to stop P2P transactions because those look like every other transaction on the legacy banking network.  Hardly a wipeout.    

[farangkinok]

[ExpatOne]

Shareholders. That’s why. 

[LawrenceN]

On 5/13/2021 at 3:41 PM, GrandPapillon said:

yeah, the actual story is actually more complex

 

the bitcoins he bought had significant impact on the last reported quarterly profit, not sales or expenses cut, actually it was expected to be quarterly loss, and it was a quarterly profit. There is a story on the WSJ about this.

 

what this means now is that Elton has to disclose, according to new SEC rules on ESG, the environment impact he has with his firm, and since Bitcoins had significant impact on the financial statements, he has to calculate accurately that impact. The problem is the financial calculation for the environment impact of Bitcoin is very very rough at the moment, hence it's impossible to report accurately (using existing methodology) that financial number in the SEC disclosure. Because of this, the firm is liable to possible future violations and fines.

 

hence, Elton got smart and tweeted that he is going to stop accepting bitcoins ????

 

Who is Elton? 

[fdsa]

another day, another billion fake dollars printed:

 

 

 

next stop: $50'000 for 1 BTC

[allanos]

"There is a subtle hilarity to (figuratively) the career welder from Blackpool, the warehouse manager from Darwin, and the goat herder from Waikato coming onto Thai Visa, confidently airing their takes on the direction of financial innovation, and then congratulating each other for it"

 

The post above is very elitist, and is sure to ruffle a few feathers. If the cap fits, and all of that . . . 

 

But behind the sarcasm is a lot of truth. The majority of the members making ribald or facetious comments about Bitcoin do not have a jot of understanding about it.  But worse, they have little or no understanding of economics, and what makes the money world tick! 

 

On a good day, fiat money is losing value (purchasing power) at around 1% per month. For those poor at math, that is, give or take, 12% per year. Do not believe the inflation figures your government feeds you with. They are massaged!

 

If you don't believe this statement, look at the prices of your regularly-purchased items on the supermarket shelves, and compare them to a year ago. Better still, go online and check what USD $100 bought ten or twenty years ago, compared to today.  It is quite a shock!

 

What am I saying?  The Fed, because of fiscal and monetary policy of the US Government, is printing money like never before; a 26% increase in one year, over that printed for around the last 100 years.  It is eroding the value of your hard-earned money; in effect, it is a tax on you, but done silently, surreptitiously! US debt is around $28 trillion, and counting. Go online and check the debt clock if you don't believe me.

 

But you may say, "Ah! Hold on chum, I am from the UK, France, Japan etc.

what has it got to do with me"? The answer is lots, and none of us is immune.  All of the governments are also inflating money supply, for domestic reasons and to maintain currency parity with the US Dollar.

 

So, when the US, Europe, the UK, start to issue digital currency, which many on hear believe will be the death of Bitcoin and other crypto, it is still fiat, and will operate alongside paper notes and all other fiat-based assets, like bonds, property etc. So, no difference, then. Inflation will be no different than today, although, very likely, it will be higher due to monetary policy; running riot even!

 

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, has recently stated that Bitcoin is an asset and not currency. He is simply reinforcing what Bitcoin investors have believed all the while, that Bitcoin is digital gold.

 

Ponzi scheme? For those who call Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme, they neither know how a Ponzi scheme works, nor how Bitcoin works.  In fact, the Bitcoin code has a 4-yearly halving written into it, an inverse arrangement to how Ponzi's work, so I would say to these people, wake up!

 

When I was in high school, one teacher (who, at the time, was considered a bit of an old duffer), imbued us with the principles behind the following quotation: "It is better to say nothing, and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt".

 

I commend this adage to those bleating about Bitcoin and other crypto, who simply have no meaningful knowledge of it.

[Drew3223]

16 minutes ago, allanos said:

"There is a subtle hilarity to (figuratively) the career welder from Blackpool, the warehouse manager from Darwin, and the goat herder from Waikato coming onto Thai Visa, confidently airing their takes on the direction of financial innovation, and then congratulating each other for it"

 

The post above is very elitist, and is sure to ruffle a few feathers. If the cap fits, and all of that . . . 

 

But behind the sarcasm is a lot of truth. The majority of the members making ribald or facetious comments about Bitcoin do not have a jot of understanding about it.  But worse, they have little or no understanding of economics, and what makes the money world tick! 

 

On a good day, fiat money is losing value (purchasing power) at around 1% per month. For those poor at math, that is, give or take, 12% per year. Do not believe the inflation figures your government feeds you with. They are massaged!

 

If you don't believe this statement, look at the prices of your regularly-purchased items on the supermarket shelves, and compare them to a year ago. Better still, go online and check what USD $100 bought ten or twenty years ago, compared to today.  It is quite a shock!

 

What am I saying?  The Fed, because of fiscal and monetary policy of the US Government, is printing money like never before; a 26% increase in one year, over that printed for around the last 100 years.  It is eroding the value of your hard-earned money; in effect, it is a tax on you, but done silently, surreptitiously! US debt is around $28 trillion, and counting. Go online and check the debt clock if you don't believe me.

 

But you may say, "Ah! Hold on chum, I am from the UK, France, Japan etc.

what has it got to do with me"? The answer is lots, and none of us is immune.  All of the governments are also inflating money supply, for domestic reasons and to maintain currency parity with the US Dollar.

 

So, when the US, Europe, the UK, start to issue digital currency, which many on hear believe will be the death of Bitcoin and other crypto, it is still fiat, and will operate alongside paper notes and all other fiat-based assets, like bonds, property etc. So, no difference, then. Inflation will be no different than today, although, very likely, it will be higher due to monetary policy; running riot even!

 

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, has recently stated that Bitcoin is an asset and not currency. He is simply reinforcing what Bitcoin investors have believed all the while, that Bitcoin is digital gold.

 

Ponzi scheme? For those who call Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme, they neither know how a Ponzi scheme works, nor how Bitcoin works.  In fact, the Bitcoin code has a 4-yearly halving written into it, an inverse arrangement to how Ponzi's work, so I would say to these people, wake up!

 

When I was in high school, one teacher (who, at the time, was considered a bit of an old duffer), imbued us with the principles behind the following quotation: "It is better to say nothing, and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt".

 

I commend this adage to those bleating about Bitcoin and other crypto, who simply have no meaningful knowledge of it.

Hear hear.

 

Any thoughts on the XRP SEC case? 

 

They say it's a security. XRP say it's an asset. 

 

It's very obviously an asset, but some people think SEC are trying to use the case to regulate and to push XRP into becoming the digital currency of the QFS.

 

I'm all in on XRP. 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Drew3223

[allanos]

The recent incumbent as Chairman of the SEC is something of a crypto expert.  He teaches a course on crypto at MIT (I think it is). When he talks about crypto's place, and where he sees it, what sort of regulation it may need, and so on, he is quite matter-of-fact, and not dogmatic, unlike Janet Yellon or Christine Lagarde, for example.

 

I believe his input and response iro XRP may be more nuanced and that there will be some kind of settlement of the issue.

 

I believe there is still a good upside to XRP.

[aboctok]

On 5/13/2021 at 3:41 PM, GrandPapillon said:

yeah, the actual story is actually more complex

 

the bitcoins he bought had significant impact on the last reported quarterly profit, not sales or expenses cut, actually it was expected to be quarterly loss, and it was a quarterly profit. There is a story on the WSJ about this.

 

what this means now is that Elton has to disclose, according to new SEC rules on ESG, the environment impact he has with his firm, and since Bitcoins had significant impact on the financial statements, he has to calculate accurately that impact. The problem is the financial calculation for the environment impact of Bitcoin is very very rough at the moment, hence it's impossible to report accurately (using existing methodology) that financial number in the SEC disclosure. Because of this, the firm is liable to possible future violations and fines.

 

hence, Elton got smart and tweeted that he is going to stop accepting bitcoins ????

 

Not sure about all that, but I fully support calling him Elton from now on.