Thailand’s total COVID-19 case tally surpasses 100,000 after 2,302 new cases

[anchadian]

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So if we count the 1200 prison cases then Thailands total daily number is about 3500?Or am I missing something?

 

4 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So if we count the 1200 prison cases then Thailands total daily number is about 3500?Or am I missing something?

No.  The prison numbers weren't included.  Hopefully we will get that answer later today or they will be included in tomorrow's update.

[ikke1959]

Oh sorry forgot to count the prison cases 1219 ... But than it looks so much and that is not good for the tourism..... so we mentioned hem yesterday and today we do as usual... All problems solved and we downgrade Phuket to orange because July is approaching

[pseudorabies]

32 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The data shows that infection numbers in the general population are not growing much.

 

On the other hand, it’s pretty obvious that the numbers in prisons are awful. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 100,000 infections right now in the prisons. The situation may be so bad that the authorities will count prison infections separately.

Personally I don't take these numbers at face value. The consistent ~2000 new infections per day is suspicious and hints that other factors like availability of tests or willingness to take a test play a greater role in reaching that 2000 number. Usually I would look at the number of ICU cases or deaths. But the government is really behind the eight-ball here and I'm less comfortable trusting even those numbers. I just assume that it's worse than it looks. A lot worse.

[robblok]

3 minutes ago, pseudorabies said:

Personally I don't take these numbers at face value. The consistent ~2000 new infections per day is suspicious and hints that other factors like availability of tests or willingness to take a test play a greater role in reaching that 2000 number. Usually I would look at the number of ICU cases or deaths. But the government is really behind the eight-ball here and I'm less comfortable trusting even those numbers. I just assume that it's worse than it looks. A lot worse.

Of course its worse then it looks tests are severely limited. They think the spread is around 5% in BKK. Why do you think the government never posts how many tests are done. Last i read was that the health organization of hospitals wanted more funding and promised to scale up tests from 10.000 to 20.000. That is the countrywide health organization. They do 3000 tests in the slums and call it mass testing. So you can only imagine that MAYBE they test around 20.000 to 30.000 a day. So we will never get more unless we do more tests. 

 

They don't want high numbers its in their interest to keep numbers low. Bad for tourism bad for the economy and bad for the looks of the government. 

 

Do you think this government would lockdown if they don't absolutely have to. Remember they let songkran go because of public opnion. I doubt many (me included) like lockdowns. The longer it takes the more resentment it builds the more people will think badly of the goverment and how they should have prevented this.  So its in the goverments best interest to downplay it all.

[Danderman123]

11 minutes ago, pseudorabies said:

Personally I don't take these numbers at face value. The consistent ~2000 new infections per day is suspicious and hints that other factors like availability of tests or willingness to take a test play a greater role in reaching that 2000 number. Usually I would look at the number of ICU cases or deaths. But the government is really behind the eight-ball here and I'm less comfortable trusting even those numbers. I just assume that it's worse than it looks. A lot worse.

Again, I have looked at the local numbers in Chonburi and they support the national numbers, not including the prison system. 

 

If you have data to support your feeling, please share. Otherwise, you are just repeating a Monty Python sketch. 

[Danderman123]

7 minutes ago, robblok said:

Of course its worse then it looks tests are severely limited. They think the spread is around 5% in BKK. Why do you think the government never posts how many tests are done. Last i read was that the health organization of hospitals wanted more funding and promised to scale up tests from 10.000 to 20.000. That is the countrywide health organization. They do 3000 tests in the slums and call it mass testing. So you can only imagine that MAYBE they test around 20.000 to 30.000 a day. So we will never get more unless we do more tests. 

 

They don't want high numbers its in their interest to keep numbers low. Bad for tourism bad for the economy and bad for the looks of the government. 

 

Do you think this government would lockdown if they don't absolutely have to. Remember they let songkran go because of public opnion. I doubt many (me included) like lockdowns. The longer it takes the more resentment it builds the more people will think badly of the goverment and how they should have prevented this.  So its in the goverments best interest to downplay it all.

Except that the government posts test data every day, you are right on the money. 

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Let’s use Chonburi as an example.

 

~1,000 tests conducted, some 48 new infections found.

 

What percent of the Thai population lives in Chonburi province? If you do the math, the resulting extrapolation more or less is consistent with the national numbers.

 

so, do you think the Chonburi sample is too small? Or is it all fake?

Still stuck on just Chonburi.  You can not compare what Chonburi is doing with everywhere else as everywhere else including Bangkok and even the outer provinces are not testing the same percentage if residents.  If they were what would you think the numbers would truly show......no one can say and to speculate and guess is just fraught with to many unknowns.

Edited May 16, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Rampant Rabbit]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

A never ending cycle

Good  news to supress those  pesky students.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Still stuck on just Chonburi.  You can not compare what Chinburi is doing with everywhere else as everywhere else including Bangkok and even the outer provinces are not testing the same percentage if residents.  If they were what would you think the numbers would truly show......no one can say and to speculate and guess is just fraught with to many unknowns.

He can ???? does it all the time

[robblok]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Except that the government posts test data every day, you are right on the money. 

How am i right on the money ? the amount of tests ? I never read how many tests they did. Plus remember its only confirmed AFTER a goverment test. So you have to halve the amount of tests even. Because every positive has to be confirmed by the government testing before its counted.

 

I told the story about the GF her company where they had 10 people but 1 was counted as that person had the second test done others were not counted before the second test. So basically it means you have maybe halve the amount to see the totals done. 

 

But this stable 2000 just shows that out of 10.000 - 30.000 tests they have around 10% detection rate. That is why they say they think that bankok has around 5% that is a huge number if they test everyone.

 

I doubt they test dead people for covid to see if they died with it. Like i said the government wants to downplay this as the opposition uses this against them. There is a lot of info in the BKK post about his.

 

For the record i hate all the restrictions but think they are needed. Looking at India and Brazil we know what CAN happen. Once hospitals can't handle it anymore the problems really start.

[dinsdale]

8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Again, I have looked at the local numbers in Chonburi and they support the national numbers, not including the prison system. 

 

If you have data to support your feeling, please share. Otherwise, you are just repeating a Monty Python sketch. 

Being that you seem so well informed maybe you can share with us the number of daily tests being carried out in Chonburi.

[Danderman123]

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Being that you seem so well informed maybe you can share with us the number of daily tests being carried out in Chonburi.

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/05/15/covid-19-cases-in-chonburi-plummets-to-33-new-and-confirmed-cases-lowest-in-over-a-month/

 

"In the last day, a total of 353 close contacts were tested from contact tracing, and 936 people were tested in proactive testing when medical staff goes out into the community.

 

All are pending results. Additionally, another 250 people were tested from Royal mobile testing vans and are also waiting for results as officials step up aggressive community testing."

 

Please tell us why this data is not valid. 

Edited May 16, 2021 by onthedarkside
formatting

[Danderman123]

8 minutes ago, robblok said:

How am i right on the money ? the amount of tests ? I never read how many tests they did. Plus remember its only confirmed AFTER a goverment test. So you have to halve the amount of tests even. Because every positive has to be confirmed by the government testing before its counted.

 

I told the story about the GF her company where they had 10 people but 1 was counted as that person had the second test done others were not counted before the second test. So basically it means you have maybe halve the amount to see the totals done. 

 

But this stable 2000 just shows that out of 10.000 - 30.000 tests they have around 10% detection rate. That is why they say they think that bankok has around 5% that is a huge number if they test everyone.

 

I doubt they test dead people for covid to see if they died with it. Like i said the government wants to downplay this as the opposition uses this against them. There is a lot of info in the BKK post about his.

 

For the record i hate all the restrictions but think they are needed. Looking at India and Brazil we know what CAN happen. Once hospitals can't handle it anymore the problems really start.

 

Every positive test has to be confirmed by a government test? How does that work? 

[robblok]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

 

Every positive test has to be confirmed by a government test? How does that work? 

How does that work, I seen it from up close. The employees went to test. Were tested possitive. Then were asked to do a new test with government later on AFTER being counted. They were told NOT to release any data of people who were tested positive by the first test. These tests were done in normal hospitals or drive through testing. SO valid tests. But they were NOT counted and the company was NOT allowed to tell other companies they had 10 people tested possitive. Only allowed 1 untill the second government test (much later) confirmed the case. 

 

This is a true story recent too believe it was march april this year. So that basically means that there is a huge delay in numbers plus not everyone gets the second test but more importantly that only HALF the tests count as 2 test are needed to confirm one case.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

 

Every positive test has to be confirmed by a government test? How does that work? 

Every positive test including rapid tests needs to be confirmed by a government lab or government licensed lab test.

[Danderman123]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Every positive test including rapid tests needs to be confirmed by a government lab or government licensed lab test.

So, an initial positive result by a government licensed lab must be confirmed by another lab? 

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

How does that work, I seen it from up close. The employees went to test. Were tested possitive. Then were asked to do a new test with government later on AFTER being counted. They were told NOT to release any data of people who were tested positive by the first test. These tests were done in normal hospitals or drive through testing. SO valid tests. But they were NOT counted and the company was NOT allowed to tell other companies they had 10 people tested possitive. Only allowed 1 untill the second government test (much later) confirmed the case. 

 

This is a true story recent too believe it was march april this year. So that basically means that there is a huge delay in numbers plus not everyone gets the second test but more importantly that only HALF the tests count as 2 test are needed to confirm one case.

Are you sure that the initial tests were PCR-RT? Or maybe they were rapid tests? 

[pseudorabies]

17 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Again, I have looked at the local numbers in Chonburi and they support the national numbers, not including the prison system. 

 

If you have data to support your feeling, please share. Otherwise, you are just repeating a Monty Python sketch. 

I was in a similar situation about two years ago working with a CRO in the US that was running some in vivo rodent studies for one of my groups.  In one particular study the numbers for individual mice were identical across a 5 day period.  We had never seen this before from many previous studies we'd run with them.  Many emails were exchanged as well as a few conference calls.  They never gave a satisfactory explanation and we never believed the numbers, chalking it up to junior personnel who, since they had no vested interest in producing accurate data, were in a rush to get home during a weekend.  We never did see numbers again like we did in that one instance.

 

Just like with the Trump administration, which we are now learning DID screw with the data to make it look more favorable to Trump, I don't trust this administration to generate or show data that might cast them in the worst light.

[dinsdale]

23 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/05/15/covid-19-cases-in-chonburi-plummets-to-33-new-and-confirmed-cases-lowest-in-over-a-month/

 

"In the last day, a total of 353 close contacts were tested from contact tracing, and 936 people were tested in proactive testing when medical staff goes out into the community.

 

All are pending results. Additionally, another 250 people were tested from Royal mobile testing vans and are also waiting for results as officials step up aggressive community testing."

 

Please tell us why this data is not valid. 

So about 1,500 tests in a province that has around 1.5 million. Amphur Muaeng around 220,000 and Pattaya around 100,000. Would you call 1,500 tests mass testing?  My maths isn't that good but I think from just Amphur Muang and Pattaya alone thats 0.5% and 0.1% of total population tested in one day. I remember Adelaide, which has a similar population testing 10,000+ a day, population 1.3 mil. 20 nov had the highest daily tests with 17, 406. Covid now under control with 1 case yesterday but still around 3.5k tests a day.

Edited May 16, 2021 by dinsdale

[Bkk Brian]

15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

So, an initial positive result by a government licensed lab must be confirmed by another lab? 

Did i say that? Try again

[anchadian]

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1393778029453660161

 

Health officials in Prachuap Khiri Khan are reporting a big jump today of 66 new cases. 65 of these cases were in Hua Hin #COVID19 #โควิด19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

 

[starky]

2 hours ago, Trujillo said:

101,447 out of the total population of Thailand at 69,799,978 is 0.145 percent of the total population. 

 

Deaths are 0.00084 percent of the total population of the nation. 

 

Just to give some perspective. 

Yes as of today. What about tomorrow and next week and a year from now...just to give some perspective HIV only killed a couple thousand people worldwide in the first 2 years now it has killed between 25 and 42  million at best estimates with a million more dying every year and still no cure......just for perspective.

Edited May 16, 2021 by starky

[Artisi]

2 hours ago, Swimfan said:

No mention if that includes the the cases in prison. Totally inconsistent reporting. 
waiting to see the breakdown. 

weekend, no prison testing , so I've be told.

[anchadian]

 

48 confirmed and new cases of Covid-19 today in Chonburi

 

This makes a total of 3692 cases of Covid-19 in the current round of infections, with 1,198 still in medical care, with a total of thirteen recorded deaths in Chonburi since the start of this recent round of infections in early April.

 

Additionally, 2,481 people in total have now been released from medical care and fully recovered since this current wave began. 109 people were released yesterday.

 

The district-level new cases were as follows today: 

Read more: https://thepattayanews.com/2021/05/16/48-confirmed-and-new-cases-of-covid-19-today-in-chonburi/

 

Edited May 16, 2021 by anchadian

[Marvin Hagler]

2 hours ago, Trujillo said:

101,447 out of the total population of Thailand at 69,799,978 is 0.145 percent of the total population. 

 

Deaths are 0.00084 percent of the total population of the nation. 

 

Just to give some perspective. 

Indeed...Brazil and India started with similar numbers...congratulate you though on your very localised attitude in only seeing what is immediately in front of your nose and nothing beyond that

[Artisi]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

The thing is it very well might be. Again only true mass testing will show the real number. Mass testing not only in BKK but country wide from provincial capitals to villages.

and just what does that prove?

You get tested today and cleared, but tomorrow you get infected - so by your thinking you should be tested everyday - just in case?  

[dinsdale]

10 minutes ago, Artisi said:

weekend, no prison testing , so I've be told.

Interesting because the 1,219 number came from yesterday.

[Caldera]

Approaching 200,000 - one prison a time.

 

Seriously though, who knows which other clusters exist and have been hidden. 

[Artisi]

1 minute ago, Caldera said:

Approaching 200,000 - one prison a time.

 

Seriously though, who knows which other clusters exist and have been hidden. 

have they been hidden or just not tested? 

[Suua]

1 minute ago, Artisi said:

have they been hidden or just not tested? 

Probably both.