Thailand Says Its Tourism Sector May Not Recover Until 2026

[Poet]

1 hour ago, shackleton said:

Until the vaccine program is completed then the Quarantine restrictions are lifted

Why?

I have seen quite a few people repeated this idea on the forum and I am genuinely curious as to why you think it makes sense.

There seem to be two closely related assumptions:

1. To protect the public, the Thai government will not open to fully-vaccinated foreign tourists until almost every Thai citizen has been vaccinated.

2. Fully-vaccinated foreigners will be too frightened to visit Thailand until almost every Thai citizen has been vaccinated.

I believe the first assumption completely misinterprets the motivations and priorities of the Thai elites, while the second assumption massively underestimates the risk tolerance of the type of tourist who enjoys traveling in South East Asia.

The overwhelming priority of the junta is to avoid being deposed by an even more reactionary army faction. The real threat to them does not come from the students or even the red shirts. Only a few dozen families matter in Thailand. If they begin to feel that the current junta is losing them more money than is absolutely necessary, they will replace them. For the junta, losing power doesn't just mean that their swiss bank accounts will stop growing. It could well end with them swinging by their necks.

Most people from Western countries, which do a far better job of spinning the illusion of democracy, fail to understand just how much the elites do not care about the Thai people. For all the flag-waving, they see regular Thais as being barely the same species. Anything you hear the government say is designed to placate the masses at a worrying time but don't think for a minute that it reflects their actual instincts or plans.

The emergence of verifiably vaccinated visitors from countries with, thanks to mass vaccination, plummeting active case levels, is the government's golden life raft. They are not going to miss this opportunity to get the money flywheel spinning again. By "the middle of the year" (July 1st) Thailand will allow the vaccinated to skip all the testing, paperwork, quarantine, and special insurance nonsense, because the elites know that is the only way that mass tourism can return and, again, these walking ATMs represent zero biological hazard to the Thai population.

As for the willingness of fully-vaccinated foreigners to come to Thailand just as soon as the ridiculous testing, paperwork, and quarantine requirements are swept away, if you think anyone is reluctant you must be talking to a very odd selection of people. Every vaccinated friend of mine is positively gagging to hop onto a plane. Seriously, ask around, you will hear the same thing again and again.

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Poet

[Percy P]

3 hours ago, Poet said:

Every survey in the West shows that there is massive pent up demand for exotic foreign travel, and the savings to pay for it.

Thailand could starting ramping up back to mass tourism this summer if they simply announce that they will accept verifiably fully-innoculated visitors on the pre-pandemic visa terms (i.e. no tests, no quarantine, no paperwork, no special insurance etc). Each visitor would need to have credible verification that they received their final jab at least two weeks prior.

400 million people are fully-vaccinated, while another 400m have received a first jab and are waiting for their second. The supply is growing and we expect to have a billion fully-vaccinated humans by the end of June.

The current hold up is the official verification schemes. Israel launched theirs in February, the UK launched theirs earlier this month, and the EU are beta-testing theirs, individual governments will probably roll it out during July. All national schemes will provide the basic info that Thailand needs to know that the holder is not a biological threat to Thailand: date of shot(s) and type of vaccine(s).

To have any sort of high season this year, Thailand should announce during June that, from the second half of the year (July 1st), the doors are wide open to fully-vaccinated tourists who arrive on planes carrying only fully-vaccinated passengers and crew. They won't get anywhere near 2019 levels this year but it will be a start, will give them some sort of high season, will kickstart a complicated industry that has stalled badly, and will pre-empt regional competitors eager to leapfrog them.

 

My friends in the UK can't wait for the travel ban to be lifted so they can come to Thailand . 

[J Town]

If leaders got a cranial assendectomy and performed like OTHER countries that are now curbing down (can you say vaccine for all?) then tourism could get back MUCH sooner.

[DefaultName]

Some tourists - those who come for the beaches, scenery, temples, etc. - may not return for many years.

Other tourists - those who come for the "other" attractions - will return as soon as they can, where else is there for them that offers what Thailand does?  And with a smile too.  ????

[Javier]

8 minutes ago, Poet said:

Why?

I have seen quite a few people repeated this idea on the forum and I am genuinely curious as to why you think it makes sense.

There seem to be two closely related assumptions:

1. To protect the public, the Thai government will not open to fully-vaccinated foreign tourists until almost every Thai citizen has been vaccinated.

2. Fully-vaccinated foreigners will be too frightened to visit Thailand until almost every Thai citizen has been vaccinated.

I believe the first assumption completely misinterprets the motivations and priorities of the Thai elites, while the second assumption massively underestimates the risk tolerance of the type of tourist who enjoys traveling in South East Asia.

The overwhelming priority of the junta is to avoid being deposed by an even more reactionary army faction. The real threat to them does not come from the students or even the red shirts. Only a few dozen families matter in Thailand. If they begin to feel that the current junta is losing them more money than is absolutely necessary, they will replace them. For the junta, losing power doesn't just mean that their swiss bank accounts will stop growing. It could well end with them swinging by their necks.

Most people from Western countries, which do a far better job of spinning the illusion of democracy, fail to understand just how much the elites do not care about the Thai people. For all the flag-waving, they see regular Thais as being barely the same species. Anything you hear the government say is designed to placate the masses at a worrying time but don't think for a minute that it reflects their actual instincts or plans.

The emergence of verifiably vaccinated visitors from countries with, thanks to mass vaccination, plummeting active case levels, is the government's golden life raft. They are not going to miss this opportunity to get the money flywheel spinning again.

As for the willingness of fully-vaccinated foreigners to come to Thailand just as soon as the ridiculous testing, paperwork, and quarantine requirements are swept away, if you think anyone is reluctant you must be talking to a very odd selection of people. Every vaccinated friend of mine is positively gagging to hop onto a plane. Seriously, ask around, you will hear the same thing again and again.

 

I believe it is more to do with the amount of days required to be quarantined back and fore. For I am waiting for it to be removed before I take my annual leave and return home for a period of time.

[Poet]

3 minutes ago, Javier said:

I believe it is more to do with the amount of days required to be quarantined back and fore. For I am waiting for it to be removed before I take my annual leave and return home for a period of time.

Yes, that is my whole point. The elites know that mass tourism cannot possibly return with those restrictions in place. The emergence of credible vaccine verification is their opportunity to jettison all of that.

As for quarantine upon your return, individual countries may vary but my strong hunch is that the ability of the fully-vaccinated to avoid quarantine on the way back will soon be heavily touted as one of many "vaccine bonuses" to encourage the laggards to get jabbed.


 

[BumGun]

4 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Domestic tourism in the US is red hot

Same here in Australia, total Tourism spend is UP as locals are spending their money here instead of overseas and it outweighs the previous "locals + international tourists" spend.  It seems Aussies are flush with cash from Government largesse are eager to spend it on that, a car, or another house (house prices have also sky rocketed) That will certainly not encourage the Government to open the border, It has shifted though, winners and losers as always but then Australia isn't particularly well know as being a Tourist destination (expensive, poor service and a long way from anywhere) Most regional tourism is oldes like me wandering around having a look.

 

3 hours ago, starky said:

Hope I'm wrong but Australia is likely to come out of this year's behind the rest of the world. Haven't even experienced a first wave yet. Now we are fairly certain that vaccines aren't the be all and end all, the zero covid strategy and perpetual rolling lockdowns for a handful of cases is more detrimental than anything.

 

The only disease ever eradicated by vaccination is Small Pox and that took 200 years.  When the CEO of Virgin Airlines in Aus. recently suggested that when we're vaccinated and if we open the borders, there will be deaths, just like there is now with Flu,  she was castigated by the PM and much of the wider community.  Government in NZ and Aus will at some stage have to walk back from their current strategy. I read border closure supporters suggest "of course they will" but that's NOT what the PM of Aus.  suggested when he said "no deaths were acceptable".  There is currently  no path out of this in Australia so until there is I am waiting and watching ad not being vaccinated.

 

As Clive James once observed: “The problem with Australians is not that so many of them are descended from convicts, but that so many of them are descended from prison officers.”

[WingFat]

The NWO Plan is in force...to destroy anything resembling what we knew, and replace it with a totalitarian, authoritarian nightmare what we never wanted to know. Best of fortune to everyone...buckle up; the ride is only going to get wilder...

[Bangkok Barry]

5 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Could push some away from here with the reputation of this place being a cheap travel destination.

That has long gone. Whereas prices in most countries usually rise by 2-3 percent, in Thailand they often rise by 20. The only thing that is cheap in Thailand now is 5* hotels. If tourists want to enjoy a good meal or a drink it will often cost them as much or more as back home.

 

Another problem is that, along with First World prices, there is too often Third World service standards. And whereas the 'two week millionaires' might not baulk at the prices, they most definitely want to be treated well while they are paying. Far too often service is indifferent at best. Poorly trained and sullen waitresses are not what visitors expect from the self-styled Land of Smiles.

[Javier]

2 minutes ago, Poet said:

Yes, that is my whole point. The elites know that mass tourism cannot possibly return with those restrictions in place. The emergence of credible vaccine verification is their opportunity to jettison all of that.

As for quarantine upon your return, individual countries may vary but my strong hunch is that the ability of the fully-vaccinated to avoid quarantine on the way back will soon be heavily touted as one of many "vaccine bonuses" to encourage the laggards to get jabbed.


 

The initial plan of having tourist travel within a state and get that particular state to be vaccinated should be a better plan if they want to have travelers back asap. The problem with this is how they can make sure tourist would stay within that province and not wander to other province? 

[Poet]

4 minutes ago, Javier said:

The initial plan of having tourist travel within a state and get that particular state to be vaccinated should be a better plan if they want to have travelers back asap. The problem with this is how they can make sure tourist would stay within that province and not wander to other province? 

If they know that the fully-vaccinated tourist presents zero biological risk to anyone he meets in any province, what, exactly, is the problem?
 

[tlandtday]

It can be quicker than this but it won't be in the state we have seen in the past.  Expect the introduction of Casinos and hordes of Chinese coming for quick and cheap holidays.  Thai tourism destinations particularly Pattaya can resemble Sihanoukville in short order.  Covid is presenting China with an unparalleled opportunity to take over much of SE Asia.

[wealthychef]

And all the animals and trees breathed a sigh of relief... 

[Javier]

2 minutes ago, Poet said:

If they know that the fully-vaccinated tourist presents zero biological risk to anyone he meets in any province, what, exactly, is the problem?
 

The problem is having vaccinated does not prevent one from ever catching the virus. It can only prevent death from it. Hence, if a person not showing signs and move around within days over several province, he or she can be a super spreader.

[tlandtday]

4 minutes ago, Javier said:

The problem is having vaccinated does not prevent one from ever catching the virus. It can only prevent death from it. Hence, if a person not showing signs and move around within days over several province, he or she can be a super spreader.

True and no one knows the long term effects of the new rna vaccines.  We shall see.  

[WingFat]

Big question: How much will the communist Chinese influence/control future Thai tourism vs. the past traditional western dominated tourism ??? One hint: the ratio of men to women in communist China is very unfavorable to commie Chinese men having enough brides in commie China. So, since Thailand has a higher ratio of women to men...say hello to a large swath of commie Chinese men seeking to descend upon the LOS and its women. Good luck, western punters...

[BritManToo]

Just now, WingFat said:

One hint: the ratio of men to women in communist China is very unfavorable to commie Chinese men having enough brides in commie China.

I was there a couple of years back, didn't appear to be any shortage of attractive and available women.

But a lot of the 'commie Chinese' men didn't appear to have enough money to attract one.

Same game as the rest of the world, women don't want to breed with poor men any more.

 

Back on topic, I don't think COVID will ever go away, inject one vaccine and another variant will get you.

I don't think tourism will return anywhere in the world to countries that legislate about COVID.

Edited May 25, 2021 by BritManToo

[Excel]

24 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

It can be quicker than this but it won't be in the state we have seen in the past.  Expect the introduction of Casinos and hordes of Chinese coming for quick and cheap holidays.  Thai tourism destinations particularly Pattaya can resemble Sihanoukville in short order.  Covid is presenting China with an unparalleled opportunity to take over much of SE Asia.

The Chinese took over SE Asia centuries ago, nothing new happening today 

https://theaseanpost.com/article/chinese-labour-migration-southeast-asia

[Javier]

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I was there a couple of years back, didn't appear to be any shortage of attractive and available women.

But a lot of the 'commie Chinese' men didn't appear to have enough money to attract one.

Same game as the rest of the world, women don't want to breed with poor men any more.

 

Back on topic, I don't think COVID will ever go away, inject one vaccine and another variant will get you.

I don't think tourism will return anywhere in the world to countries that legislate about COVID.

Just to add inputs to the above, middle class city man also does not want to get married. They would join the local dating agency to provide suitable head counts and get to sleep around for free or even get paid by the dating agency. It is already a different society from what you would expect.

[BananaGuy]

As others have commented, a surprisingly realistic TAT-de-jour estimate.

 

I wonder if some minor TATperson (TATling?) working on an internal email hit 'copy all' in error?

 

Be nice to believe this forecast marked a genuine shift in policy though ... and beyond that (into fantasy territory perhaps) to believe the current crowd is capable of planning alternative futures for Thailand tourism a la the New Zealanders currently reviewing their backpacker/thrillseeker/package-tour model to move towards something more sustainable and profitable. 

[chrisbangkok]

4 hours ago, WineOh said:

Where is everyone hiding now who rubbished my claims when I said it will take years for tourism to recover, possibly even a decade or more?

 

my initial bet was 2030. 
 

2026 is a very optimistic number from the government, which of course is understandable as they do not like to be pessimistic when it comes to money. 
 

I’d say that given this recent announcement, my original 2030 proposal is right on the money.

 

cheers, thank you and good night! 

Thank you Nostradamus 

[bougnat]

It takes less time to teach a dog to lick the hand that feeds it ...

[Eric Loh]

Seem the only hope for mankind is for covid-19 to 'burn out' just like SARS in 2004 that lasted one half year. With infection and vaccination reaching herd immunity, it will leave the virus nowhere to go but extinction. Then during SARs, we went through the same process of testing, isolating, quarantining and travel restriction. If covid-19 persist, we will have to get use to the new normal of sniffer dogs, covid breathe testing and vaccine passport. Good luck mankind.????

[soalbundy]

Maybe expats will now achieve a god like status, the best way out of this situation would be to try and attract more, one OP permanently living here is worth 20 tourists. By being nice and accommodating the immigration could help bring in droves of expats and this would let them expand, they would have an increased power over and above TAT which would slowly sink to insignificance.

[thaipara]

5 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Domestic tourism in the US is red hot.  Hotels selling out

Not what I experienced just now reserving a hotel at the Houston airport for two nights at the end of June. Total cost for the two nights is _less_ than what I paid for one night at a lesser hotel there in June two years ago. I have been checking the prices there for a couple of months; not much change. The prices are the lowest I've ever seen there ever before (been using IAH for transpacific flights for several years already).

[AlfHuy]

Tomorrow's news.

 

Sorry, it was a typo.

We are confident that by the 3rd quarter of this year, 28Million desperate visitors will have booked our paradise, khrub.

[connda]

Thailand Says Its Tourism Sector May Not Recover Until 2026

 

Finally.  Finally certain individuals within government wake up and smell the durian.  Kudos to the NESDC for taking the risk of speaking truth to power.
This is - refreshing to say the least.  It's about the first time I've seen anything in the Thai media that dares to address reality and attempts to make conservative, reality-based predictions regarding the course of tourism and those parts of the economy directly impacted by the decimation of tourism within Thailand.

Now if only those in other government ministries would simply cut the happy-talk and deal with reality too.  The propensity for the certain ministries and ministers to stretch reality to the breaking point of just outright lying to the public does nothing but alienates a public that doesn't trust much of what is inflated and spun in the ministerial offices. Instead we'll be bombarded with more hair-brained schemes and promises that unrealistic numbers of tourists will magically appear in Thai international airports starting on July 1st 2021 and will be falling over themselves and begging to be let into a country that is for all practical purposes completely closed for normal business. 
It's gonna be a loooonnng time before New Normal tourism resembles Normal tourism - that is if it ever again approaches 2019 levels in the future.

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by connda

[tlandtday]

16 minutes ago, Excel said:

The Chinese took over SE Asia centuries ago, nothing new happening today 

https://theaseanpost.com/article/chinese-labour-migration-southeast-asia

Of course they did but now it is time for them to settle in Thailand and other parts of se asia.  Expect millions of relocated Chinese to descend upon Thailand in the near future once ownership laws are amended to make it easier for them.

[jomtienisgood]

7 hours ago, smedly said:

Phuket back to normal in 5 weeks apparently lol

What a difference a day makes??? 5 weeks or years... To be followed.. If we still are here by then. 

[anchadian]

7 hours ago, smedly said:

Phuket back to normal in 5 weeks apparently lol

Yes, with all those many thousands of unvaccinated ladyboys from nearby villages descending on Phuket like a locust plague.