Analyst: Thailand needs pandemic under control next month to see economic recovery this year

[webfact]

 

By Panithan Onthaworn

 

Thailand will only see clear signs of economic recovery in the last quarter of 2021 if the current outbreak can be brought under control by the end of July, the Kasikorn Research Center said Thursday.

 

“The Thai economy in the fourth quarter will grow considerably if we advance vaccine distribution enough to boost household and business confidence,” said Natthaporn Triratsirikul, assistant managing director at the research centre.

 

If the tourism industry can resume operations, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the fourth quarter should rise by 5 per cent year-on-year, Natthaporn added.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/28427/analyst-thailand-needs-pandemic-under-control-next-month-to-see-economic-recovery-this-year/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2021-06-11

 

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[ezzra]

The headline should really read " Thailand urgently need someone who knows what they doing to take this country out of this Covid mess it is in"...

[colinneil]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

The headline should really read " Thailand urgently need someone who knows what they doing to take this country out of this Covid mess it is in"...

Agree with you mate, but adding.... someone who knows and cares is more apt i think.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand will only see clear signs of economic recovery in the last quarter of 2021 if the current outbreak can be brought under control by the end of July, the Kasikorn Research Center said Thursday.

That's screwed then.

[XJPSX]

Bit hard to open if still getting 30-40 deaths a day and field hospitals are full. That could easily go ten times higher if we soldiered on as usual. Vaccine the only hope here unfortunately.

[RotBenz8888]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

If the tourism industry can resume operations

Even if the tourist industry resume operations and the boarders open up (probably not this year), there won't be many tourists coming anyway. 

[cclub75]

And Thailand needs water to grow rice.

 

The low level of this kind of studies is always striking.

 

And more seriously always deeply orientated.

 

No mass vaccination is not the only solution to solve this terrible pandemic that killed... 1 332 Thais in 15 months...

 

Natural immunity is a very efficient solution. Taking care of sick people is another solution (instead of watching them for 14 days in an hospital and giving them paracetamol).

 

And last but not least : vaccinate only the people who need it ! The people who are a target for this virus : the old people with pathologies.

 

With those 3 leverages, we could stop all the circus in a matter of weeks.

 

Instead we refuse the reality, and we deliberately create our own jail, our own terrible problems.

 

It's absurd.

[Eric Loh]

Bringing the pandemic under control and economic recovery are two distinctively different proposition. I wouldn't put my bet on this junta government to perform well on both these two matters. Maybe just maybe some hope if a national government under the premiership of a civilian can be formed as a transition to a snap election. This military government got to go before we can see recovery. 

[chalawaan]

Then Thailand needs to get it's beaureaucratic finger out.

 

Don't hold your breath.

Edited June 11, 2021 by chalawaan

[rcuthbert]

Earth shattering prescience!

[Isaan sailor]

While you’re at it, how about getting the Baht under control?  For a nation in crisis, a high currency will only exasperate the problems.

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, Isaan sailor said:

While you’re at it, how about getting the Baht under control?  For a nation in crisis, a high currency will only exasperate the problems.

I think the issue is it is well under control.....

[NCC1701A]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

“The Thai economy in the fourth quarter will grow considerably if we advance vaccine distribution enough to boost household and business confidence,”

yes and Blackpink will be doing a private concert for me at my house. 

 

this will be under control next month for sure if I can come up with $1,000,000. 

[chalawaan]

It will be easier to glue wings on pigs. 

[Caldera]

There's no way this outbreak will be under control by the end of next month. With a lot of luck, it won't get even worse by then.

[jacko45k]

Just now, Caldera said:

There's no way this outbreak will be under control by the end of next month. With a lot of luck, it won't get even worse by then.

Numbers seem flat in the last week or two if they are to be relied upon.

[ukrules]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

if the current outbreak can be brought under control by the end of July

 

We can forget about that then because there's no chance of it being under control in 7 weeks time.

 

It takes about that long to vaccinate everyone, so if they vaccinated everyone tomorrow the benefits would only show through over the next 4 to 12 weeks.

 

So there is a zero chance of this happening, absolutely not going to happen zero percent.

[ukrules]

4 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Bringing the pandemic under control and economic recovery are two distinctively different proposition. I wouldn't put my bet on this junta government to perform well on both these two matters. Maybe just maybe some hope if a national government under the premiership of a civilian can be formed as a transition to a snap election. This military government got to go before we can see recovery. 

 

I don't believe we've really seen the economic decline yet but it's coming.

 

[fantom]

Most covid vaccines require 2 shots.

It takes 2 weeks after the second shot to develop full immunity, so since the reccomeded period between the first and second is 12 weeks (depending on type), then another 2 weeks to develop full immunity,

14 weeks in total.

 

 Even if every body gets their first dose tomorrow, it will be mid September before we can partake in the recovery. This assumes there are any vaccines of course.

 

note: Some idiot has reccommended that the period between doses should be 16 weeks so the recovery cannot start until October.

End of July???  Tell them they are dreaming!!!!

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

 

I don't believe we've really seen the economic decline yet but it's coming.

 

Consecutive quarters of negative growth, Baht plummeting and credit ratings cut will signal economic decline. The financial sector appear sound and Thailand has a large foreign reserves. However if this government continue to borrow above the financial sustainability, it will hasten economic decline.