Submarine Budget Taken off Agenda

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24 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

No it has not evaporated at all. Your chart shows over a 10% decline and its only a projection isn't it.

Now where did you get that graph from? 

Sorry. I thought I had linked it.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/332234/gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-thailand/

[sammieuk1]

That's covid for you the gift that just keeps on giving or taking away in this case ????

[steven100]

1 hour ago, tifino said:

so the idea hasn't quite sunk yet... 

 

 

 

 

that's one of the chinese subs ....  the hatch doesn't seal properly ,  hence the listing.

[Rookiescot]

22 minutes ago, placeholder said:

 

Sorry. I thought I had linked it.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/332234/gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-thailand/

So its a projection then and does not reflect reality.

[mrfill]

Next week expect the announcement of the purchase of 2 flux capacitors and a TARDIS...

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, placeholder said:

This decision is going to be a great disappointment to those who claim that the Thai Govt. is a Chinese puppet.

Off the agenda... not off the cards permanently.

[tonray]

13 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Good. Very stupid idea to buy them in the first place, with about zero worth to the defence of the country, especially when its people are buckling at the knees in financial woes from the economic shutdowns.

Nah...they could alsways use them as MRT cars in Lat Phrao during rainy season

[unblocktheplanet]

14 hours ago, placeholder said:

But the fact is they postponed it.

And maybe there are other discreditable reasons why the Thai govt might purchase submarines from a country that has no laws against adding more than a bit extra on to the price in order to grease the wheels of the sale.

Ya mean the US? There is a clear & present danger from the Royal Lao Navy!

[placeholder]

13 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

So its a projection then and does not reflect reality.

No, not a projection. From 2021 onward it's a projection.

[placeholder]

This is from the US federal reserve. It does show a bigger decline than the Statista report for 2020. But not close to 20 percent. About 8%.

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MKTGDPTHA646NWDB

 

[rudi49jr]

‘Submarine budget taken off agenda’

 

And put on the agenda again in October. And then again in January 2022. And again in April 2022, and again and again, until the navy generals eventually get their way.

[Kerryd]

Keep in mind this isn't the first time they tried to buy those subs, nor the first time the deal was delayed.

They initially announced in 2015 that they were going to buy 3 subs from China (a year after Prayut seized power in the coup). The funding was approved in 2017. The first sub is due to be delivered in 2023.

However, funding for the other 2 has been repeatedly cut from the budget.

So the "generals" keep pushing for the purchase and the "bean counters" keep cutting them. 

There could be all manner of back door deals going on and power games within power games. For example, maybe China is pressuring Prayut to buy the subs so he announces the plan to buy them, then has lunch with someone on the budget committee and tells them to cut the funding.
(Unlikely though, as I'm sure Prayut really wants the subs. In that case, one would think he would orchestrate the removal of the naysayers on the budget committee so he could get a team of "yes boys" in there instead. Could be a number of scenarios going on.)

As for Thailand not needing subs (yawn, again).
Keep in mind that they are not overly friendly with Myanmar, have border issues with them and Myanmar recently  (last year) accepted the first of the TEN submarines it has ordered. (Interestingly, the first sub is a 2nd hand "Kilo" class from India. A refurbished Russian sub, but the crew are/were being trained, in English, by India, who is/was expected to be providing additional training and support - in Myanmar.)

That was before the coup earlier this year. (And gee, I wonder who would be upset at India gaining a toehold in what has long been considered China's "backyard" ?)
Up until this recent sub purchase, Myanmar's generals bought most their military equipment from China and a lot from Russia as well).
(Seems the idea to purchase subs from India had/has people in the intelligence community perking up their ears.)

From what I can see, Myanmar has sort of been considering submarines since the 90's, but it looks like this deal with India came about after the 2015 elections when Myanmar had it's first democratically elected gov't in decades. As part of another deal with India made in 2017, Myanmar has started receiving the first shipments of advanced "anti-submarine" torpedoes from India as well.

No word on if the deal for the other 9 subs has been cancelled now (or a new deal with China made) since the coup.

Vietnam has recently purchase 6 Kilo class attack subs from Russia.
Malaysia has 2 (French) subs and is planning on buying 2 more. 
Indonesia has 4 attack subs and expects to have double that by 2024. They just launched their first domestically made submarine in 2019 (an Indonesian version of a South Korean sub) Their other subs are from S Korea and Germany.
Bangladesh is getting Chinese help with building a submarine base in that country and recently took possession of 2 Chinese built (Ming class) submarines.

And (again, yawn) subs would be useless in the Gulf of Thailand. However they would be useful in the deeper waters like the southern end of the South China Sea (off the coast of Vietnam) where depths quickly drop to over 2,700 meters (while Kilo class subs can dive to 300).
The Andaman Sea also drops quickly to depths over 1,300 meters just a couple hundred kms from Phuket (and right where the Straits of Malacca start).

The only country in close vicinity to Thailand that has a navy and no subs is Cambodia (for now). 
Sheesh - little Singapore has EIGHT submarines ! (4 Swedish and 4 German boats.) Guess what ? The waters around Singapore aren't that much deeper than the Gulf of Thailand. Like Thailand, they have to go to the South China or Andaman Seas to find water deep enough to operate safely from.

But, again, with the current covid situation and loss of revenues from the budget, it would be really, really hard to justify buying the other 2 subs at this time, regardless of what China (or the "generals") may want.

 

[poskat]

16 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Just spend 22.5 billion of the 22.5 billion on more unpopular chinese vaccine

same kickback, just into different pockets...555

[khunPer]

A wise decision under the circumstances...????

[Burma Bill]

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

was organized to scrutinize the budget of the Defence Ministry.

Great, now his plans for two new submarines have been scuttled!!!

 

[Kinnock]

18 hours ago, placeholder said:

This decision is going to be a great disappointment to those who claim that the Thai Govt. is a Chinese puppet.

Depends on if/when the purchase is put back on the agenda.

[sanuk711]

3 hours ago, Kerryd said:

Keep in mind that they are not overly friendly with Myanmar, have border issues with them and Myanmar recently  (last year) accepted the first of the TEN submarines it has ordered.

And just over 230 miles (by sea) from the biggest Muslim Nation in the world.

 

Thoughtful post Kerryd----but you won't get to many ticks for that.............

[Rookiescot]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

This is from the US federal reserve. It does show a bigger decline than the Statista report for 2020. But not close to 20 percent. About 8%.

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MKTGDPTHA646NWDB

 

Yes because the money spent in Thailand by tourists is going to show up in official figures isn't it.

All that cash is utterly and completely accounted for and declared to the Thai government so income tax can be paid on it.

Odd how countries like the UK have had a 20% drop in GDP when they dont rely on tourism but good old teflon Thailand has had only a teensy weensy drop since covid began. Even though there are no tourists any more.