Is the herd immunity dream dead?

[watthong]

20 hours ago, japanese said:

We may see a future of people being weened off the vaccines... And maybe 'unvaccinated passports' issued to those with natural immunity whilst vaccinated are asked to shelter at home...

Science is out there for anyone with reading and critical thinking ability to learn all they want to know about covid and/or any other subject matter. And then there quacks who act like news broker and pseudo medical professionals with agendas who come on the scene to calm down mass hysteria and spoon feed folks who are too lazy to educate themselves. On this forum it has become an annoying game a la whackamole to flush out the covid trolls and dust away their nonsensical (black is white) data/logic. Above is a glorious example.

[thaibeachlovers]

22 hours ago, Skallywag said:

Herd immunity likely will not happen.

Simple solution for most is to get vaccinated. The vaccines were designed to prevent severe illness, not infection.

 

Unvaccinated and you are playing Russian roulette every time you go out for the rest of your life.

 

The vast majority of corona infected people do NOT go to hospital, and do NOT die.

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, Acharn said:

It was always false. SARS-Cov-2 is a fast-mutating virus like influenza. The vaccines were always designed to reduce the severity of the symptoms. They do not prevent infection,or confer immunity, so they will never produce herd immunity. It's like the common cold -- you can catch it again after you've had it once. Get vaccinated anyway, the fact that the symptoms are less severe is a big deal. You're almost certain not to die. It's just too bad all the public health authorities decided to lie about the vaccines, it's destroyed people's faith in them.

I don't remember any of that when the vaccines first came out. It was all "get vaccinated and you are set"- no need to mask, isolate etc etc.

IMO it's only since the vaccines obviously DIDN'T provide 100% protection that the message has changed. Now it's apparently masks and lockdowns for ever and booster shots for life- the latest on tv today was they only last 6 months.

 

Quote

You're almost certain not to die.

end quote

Most that became infected did NOT die.

 

[Harry Om]

43 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The vast majority of corona infected people do NOT go to hospital, and do NOT die.

Sacrilege! Burn him!       ????

[placnx]

20 hours ago, japanese said:

That seems a bit of a jump.  I am sure there will be exceptions to the rule.  I haven't seen anything to say this is the general situation, but will certainly read if you can point me in the direction of that info as it would be important.

 

Note that vaccines effectively give immunity to the spike protein which is 0.3% of the virus.  Natural immunity protects from 100% of the virus the person caught.  A virus variant will differ a little, but would be expected to be recognized by the immune system.  

You might find interesting a discussion on al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story It's today's show about the myth of herd immunity. It will be available online by tomorrow. Natural immunity is theoretically good, but those with weak immune systems are the ones who get infected serially, with dire potential consequences.

 

I believe that herd immunity could be achieved through vaccination, but to avoid yearly boosters it would require a Biden epiphany and similar steps by G7 to get the world vaccinated ASAP. That means building up vaccine production rapidly and developing a system to monitor and isolate outbreaks of new variants in India, etc, etc. Initially (as per al Jazeera discussion), immunocompromised people need to be vaccinated and boostered as they are the most prolific variant factories.

[ukrules]

Delta will mutate, there's no question of that so the current incarnation of COVID won't be here forever.

 

There's a real question behind this - How harmful is Delta compared to each of the previous strains?

 

[placnx]

On 8/12/2021 at 6:08 PM, Polar Bear said:

Anyone who contracts COVID is unlucky. 

No the other two weren't vaccinated. Vaccines are still hard to come by in many countries, and some won't vaccinate you if you have already had COVID.

Do you have a link to a study that vaccination destroys natural immunity to COVID? I've not seen anything along those lines, so I would be interested to read it. 

Actually vaccination enhances immunity in people who have already had Covid. In fact, CDC (US) is telling people to get vaccinated even if they have had Covid already.

[placnx]

On 8/12/2021 at 6:21 PM, Acharn said:

It was always false. SARS-Cov-2 is a fast-mutating virus like influenza. The vaccines were always designed to reduce the severity of the symptoms. They do not prevent infection,or confer immunity, so they will never produce herd immunity. It's like the common cold -- you can catch it again after you've had it once. Get vaccinated anyway, the fact that the symptoms are less severe is a big deal. You're almost certain not to die. It's just too bad all the public health authorities decided to lie about the vaccines, it's destroyed people's faith in them.

The better vaccines can prevent infection, in around 70% of cases with the original strain. But this is much reduced in the case of Delta, so there will need to be a booster to handle that. It certainly won't be possible to attain herd immunity in the US if a lot of people refuse vaccination.

[placnx]

20 hours ago, frantick said:

Until you're infected, and then there's a 99+% chance you'll recover without any problems and MAY have better protection from future infections than those vaccinated.

Natural immunity is a fallacy in the case of Covid. The unvaccinated could also contract Long Covid, an unhappy result.

[placnx]

12 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

 

Initial Covid strains were dangerous. The Delta strain is more infectious, but less dangerous. Future strains will be milder. Do we continue to lock down cities even when everyone is vaccinated and milder Covid strains mean illness and fatalities are similar to common flus and colds?

Where is the evidence that Delta is less dangerous (severe)?

[Stevemercer]

18 minutes ago, placnx said:

Where is the evidence that Delta is less dangerous (severe)?

There is a lot of information on the Internet. This is from the New Your Post:

 

The seven-day average of new UK cases is above 25,000, the highest since late January, when the weekly average had just dropped from a peak of 50,000.

 

But only 2,000 COVID cases are hospitalized, vs. nearly 40,000 in January. Daily deaths average under 20, vs. more than 1,000 in January.

 

Similarly: Israel, despite a spike in Delta cases, is seeing deaths in the single digits over the last month.

In other words, Delta looks to be less lethal than previous variants, despite media scare stories.

 

This makes sound scientific sense: Evolution favors variants that are more contagious — but also ones that are less deadly because killing the host reduces the chances for spread.

 

And the vaccines still work well. Public Health England found Pfizer’s vax was 96 percent effective at preventing hospitalization from the Delta variant. An Israeli study found it was 94 percent effective at preventing severe illness.

[Paradise Pete]

On 8/12/2021 at 3:46 AM, japanese said:

Herd immunity can only happen with natural immunity and/or with a vaccine that provides for sterilizing immunity.

 

The covid vaccines are 'leaky' and do not provide sterilizing immunity.

 

Ergo mass vaccination has led to a situation whereby herd immunity is not possible. 

 

Further, we will likely see a never ending cycle of mutations that will infect vaccinated, and unvaccinated that do not already have natural immunity. There is also a risk that more deadly strains will emerge from vaccinated people.  Usually deadly strains finish off the host and in doing so finish themselves off.  'Leaky' vaccines may allow the host to survive, so the mutated strain may be passed on to another host.

 

At least the unvaccinated will likely only catch covid once.

 

We may see a future of people being weened off the vaccines, and a lot of people angry with their government/workplace having been pushed to get a vaccine without full information.  And maybe 'unvaccinated passports' issued to those with natural immunity whilst vaccinated are asked to shelter at home...

This post is wrong and misunderstands the science. Get vaccinated.

[ukrules]

28 minutes ago, placnx said:

Where is the evidence that Delta is less dangerous (severe)?

Why don't you attempt to prove that Delta is killing more people per capita than previous strains?

 

Therein lies the answers you seek.

[KhaoNiaw]

12 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Why don't you attempt to prove that Delta is killing more people per capita than previous strains?

 

Therein lies the answers you seek.

From the CDC in the US, Delta is slightly more deadly than the original variant but much more transmissible. Transmissibility is similar to chicken pox but less than measles. 

 

[placnx]

29 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

There is a lot of information on the Internet. This is from the New Your Post:

 

The seven-day average of new UK cases is above 25,000, the highest since late January, when the weekly average had just dropped from a peak of 50,000.

 

But only 2,000 COVID cases are hospitalized, vs. nearly 40,000 in January. Daily deaths average under 20, vs. more than 1,000 in January.

 

Similarly: Israel, despite a spike in Delta cases, is seeing deaths in the single digits over the last month.

In other words, Delta looks to be less lethal than previous variants, despite media scare stories.

 

This makes sound scientific sense: Evolution favors variants that are more contagious — but also ones that are less deadly because killing the host reduces the chances for spread.

 

And the vaccines still work well. Public Health England found Pfizer’s vax was 96 percent effective at preventing hospitalization from the Delta variant. An Israeli study found it was 94 percent effective at preventing severe illness.

It requires more rigorous analysis to determine the lethality. Having more people vaccinated since January would make quite a difference.

 

The principle of a virus becoming too deadly to reproduce has not become applicable in this case. Talking about such cases applies to Ebola, perhaps (though there the animal reservoir prevents it from completely disappearing). In the case of Covid, many more people can be infected before patient dies.

[placnx]

27 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Why don't you attempt to prove that Delta is killing more people per capita than previous strains?

 

Therein lies the answers you seek.

Just think India. Still the infection of young people with deadly consequences is maybe even more of a hint.

Edited August 13, 2021 by placnx

[ukrules]

10 minutes ago, KhaoNiaw said:

From the CDC in the US, Delta is slightly more deadly than the original variant but much more transmissible. Transmissibility is similar to chicken pox but less than measles. 

Only 500k died in India with 800 Million infections according to their government.

 

To get the percentage you simply divide the deaths by the infections and multiply by 100 - it's simple to work out.

 

It's not over in India yet so I guess more numbers will come out in the coming months

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

There is a lot of information on the Internet. This is from the New Your Post:

 

The seven-day average of new UK cases is above 25,000, the highest since late January, when the weekly average had just dropped from a peak of 50,000.

 

But only 2,000 COVID cases are hospitalized, vs. nearly 40,000 in January. Daily deaths average under 20, vs. more than 1,000 in January.

 

Similarly: Israel, despite a spike in Delta cases, is seeing deaths in the single digits over the last month.

In other words, Delta looks to be less lethal than previous variants, despite media scare stories.

 

This makes sound scientific sense: Evolution favors variants that are more contagious — but also ones that are less deadly because killing the host reduces the chances for spread.

 

And the vaccines still work well. Public Health England found Pfizer’s vax was 96 percent effective at preventing hospitalization from the Delta variant. An Israeli study found it was 94 percent effective at preventing severe illness.

Do you think that just possibly, just maybe, that the lower number of hospitalizations had to do with the fact that those most prone to being hospitalized, the elderly, are also those who are the most highly vaccinated?

 

And the actual latest figure for those in hospital is 5875,

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

 

As for delta being less harmful...what little evidence there is suggests the opposite.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-dangerous-is-the-delta-variant-and-will-it-cause-a-covid-surge-in-the-u-s/

But it's way too soon to draw any conclusions on that score.

 

[KhaoNiaw]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

Only 500k died in India with 800 Million infections according to their government.

 

To get the percentage you simply divide the deaths by the infections and multiply by 100 - it's simple to work out.

 

It's not over in India yet so I guess more numbers will come out in the coming months

Probably have to account for vaccinations, age groups and such like as well perhaps. The CDC table clearly shows Delta as a very slightly higher on the fatality scale. 

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, ukrules said:

Only 500k died in India with 800 Million infections according to their government.

 

 

India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions, Study Finds

Researchers estimated number of fatalities caused by the disease at about four million, which would be 10 times the official count

https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-covid-19-death-toll-is-likely-in-the-millions-study-finds-11626792531

Edited August 13, 2021 by placeholder

[ukrules]

59 minutes ago, placeholder said:

India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions, Study Finds

Researchers estimated number of fatalities caused by the disease at about four million, which would be 10 times the official count

https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-covid-19-death-toll-is-likely-in-the-millions-study-finds-11626792531

So 4 million deaths out of 800 million cases?

 

 

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, ukrules said:

So 4 million deaths out of 800 million cases?

 

 

And given studies of long covid there could be another 200 miilion.

[Jingthing]

In response to the topic, yeah, probably. 

Read this and weep. Don't throw out your masks, vaccinated or not.

 

A Warning About The Future Of Covid-19 From The Scientific Advisory Group For Emergencies Of The United Kingdom (forbes.com)

 

Quote

We have watched SARS-CoV-2 develop for 18 months and have some idea of its trajectory. The Delta variant is the prime example of strains succeeding each other, becoming progressively worse in waves of infection. According to a recent report from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) in the United Kingdom, the virus is very likely to evolve into a still more dangerous form.

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

And given studies of long covid there could be another 200 miilion.

This was badly worded. I meant there could be 200 million cases of Long Covid.

[ukrules]

44 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

In response to the topic, yeah, probably. 

Read this and weep. Don't throw out your masks, vaccinated or not.

 

A Warning About The Future Of Covid-19 From The Scientific Advisory Group For Emergencies Of The United Kingdom (forbes.com)

 

 

Interesting article, I read something similar recently.

 

I wouldn't rule out any or even all of the scenarios happening over the coming year or two.

There are many roads ahead and I'm sure some of them will cross paths along the way but like the other four human coronaviruses I believe in the eventual inevitability of the fourth scenario, how bad it gets before we get there is anyones guess

 

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by ukrules

[cmarshall]

21 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

 

Initial Covid strains were dangerous. The Delta strain is more infectious, but less dangerous. Future strains will be milder. Do we continue to lock down cities even when everyone is vaccinated and milder Covid strains mean illness and fatalities are similar to common flus and colds?

It's not necessarily the case that Covid will evolve toward lower mortality.  There would be environmental pressure to do so if wild Covid had high mortality since in that case lower mortality would prolong the transmission career of the virus.  That effect would be enhanced if wild Covid had low transmission rates, like HIV, for example.  However, the fact is wild Covid was just the opposite: high transmission rates and relatively low mortality, much lower than SARS, for example.  So, most people infected with Covid don't die and spread it to a lot of other people during their two weeks or so of illness before they recover.  Lowering the already low mortality rate in a variant is unlikely to provide a significant competitive advantage over other similar strains.

 

The ancient epidemic diseases that evolved into relatively harmless childhood diseases, like mumps and measles, probably took centuries to do so and that was in the absence of any effective treatment.

[cmarshall]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

In response to the topic, yeah, probably. 

Read this and weep. Don't throw out your masks, vaccinated or not.

 

A Warning About The Future Of Covid-19 From The Scientific Advisory Group For Emergencies Of The United Kingdom (forbes.com)

 

 

I like reading Haseltine's opinions, in this case quoting SAGE, because he's a contrarian to the general opinion on virus matters.  However, early on he regarded an eventual Covid vaccine as unlikely for several good reasons, but he was wrong on that one.

[placnx]

14 hours ago, ukrules said:

Only 500k died in India with 800 Million infections according to their government.

 

To get the percentage you simply divide the deaths by the infections and multiply by 100 - it's simple to work out.

 

It's not over in India yet so I guess more numbers will come out in the coming months

A number of sources estimate deaths at 10 times the official numbers. I wonder how they got the 800mn infection stat. By your method, that would yield 8mn deaths. Due to terrible healthcare, deaths would be a significantly higher percentage than in developed countries

[berrec]

On 8/12/2021 at 5:23 PM, Etaoin Shrdlu said:

It looks like Covid will be with us for a long time. If we are fortunate, in the near to medium term a combination of vaccination and/or infection will confer sufficient resistance so that illness becomes much less severe and hospitalizations and deaths decline significantly. If we are really lucky, science will deliver a vaccine that confers sterilizing immunity, preferably one that can be administered orally, or at least does not require expensive and complicated storage. Think polio vaccine. This would be the endgame for this virus.

 

Until we reach such level, all we have is preventative measures such as masking, hand washing and restrictions on certain activities and gatherings. To me, it does not stand to reason that we should abandon such measures and open up at this time. That will be appropriate a bit later on, after more widespread resistance to severe illness is attained. We just aren't there yet. 

 

It is extremely difficult to determine the optimal level of restrictions so as to save lives and reduce the strain on healthcare services while still keeping the economy running at an acceptable level. This calls for a nuanced approach and one that can change quickly depending upon circumstances. Simply opening everything or locking down everything in an on/off manner won't work other than in extreme situations where a real lockdown may be necessary to curb a severe outbreak. One hopes this would only need to be done in geographically-limited areas and for a very short time.

 

There have been many mis-steps on the part of both experts and politicians since the pandemic emerged, not to mention deliberate mis-information spread by other actors for whatever reason. We were told that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission by the WHO as late as mid-January 2020. We were told that masks won't help the general public, until were were told that they did. Some leaders said that wearing masks was a sign of weakness or a loss of personal freedom. Politicians of many stripes have used the pandemic to push their own agendas, often at the expense of the public, Charlatans and snake-oil salesmen have made their attempts to cash in. 

 

I suspect our experts and other leaders will get things wrong again in the future, but I'm hopeful that reason and science will prevail and we'll get past this low point. To do so, we somehow have to be able to distinguish signal from noise and focus on the strategies that will get us to higher ground. I think we should listen to institutions and experts that have proven records in their respective fields and also look for general consensus among them, even if they got things a bit wrong at the outset.

 

Sorry this post is so lengthy. I did not have time to write a shorter one. Stay safe.

Maybe focusing on prevention with therapeutic and prophylactic strategies would pay bigger dividends.

 

Seems what the world is focused on now is not really working; the video below demonstrates the scientific reason why! 

 

'If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got."

 

https://youtu.be/2wIFAoTVc7M (Oops apologies; Youtube took it down as they don't support scientific facts)

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by berrec
Video removal