Pattaya investment club?

[Liverpool Lou]

1 hour ago, tgw said:

I don't want to go the online route.

There is too much garbage to be found online

"There is too much garbage to be found online".

Erm...this is online, isn't it?!

[tgw]

2 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

they have e-micro now, only 12,000 USD a contract instead of 75,000 USD for the e-mini ????

 

with the leverage, you could only pay 5% of that now,

pay 0 for futures ... only initial margin and variation margins required.

[GrandPapillon]

5 minutes ago, tgw said:

pay 0 for futures ... only initial margin and variation margins required.

in a future you buy a contract on a listed exchange regulated by the CFTC, in a forward you commit for a later date and you pay the "strike" at the delivery date of the forward. A lot of people confuse the two. Forwards are "private"

 

there is a bid/ask spread in Futures, don't think there is one in a forward, it's a private contract, not an exchange listed contract.

Edited December 3, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[GrandPapillon]

There is also a counter-party risk for Forwards since it's a private contract between 2 parties,

 

With Futures that counter-party risk is gone, it's netted every day by the Exchange or the Broker.

[Pravda]

1 hour ago, tgw said:

well, that's you !

 

I'm an expert, I studied financial products at a renowned graduate business school and I'm a former licensed derivatives and equities/bonds exchange trader DTB/SOFFEX/IBIS/FWB/SWX and global execution broker, head of desk.

And I'm not retired, but working in another field than financial markets, and not following them as much as I would like to. But I would like to be able to pick up on more trends and trading ideas than I currently do

Alarm bells screaming. 

 

And you're living in Pattaya, the mecca of all the financial geniuses jetsettig between their barstool and a council flat in Kent. 

 

You wouldn't be selling some investments, would you?

 

I think Patterz is lucky to have some of the world's best like yourself

[tgw]

1 hour ago, Pravda said:

Alarm bells screaming. 

 

And you're living in Pattaya, the mecca of all the financial geniuses jetsettig between their barstool and a council flat in Kent. 

 

You wouldn't be selling some investments, would you?

 

I think Patterz is lucky to have some of the world's best like yourself

lol

no, I don't sell investments, I make them myself, thanks.

just want to discuss information and trading ideas, everyone can trade what he wants where he wants.

[1FinickyOne]

15 hours ago, tgw said:

just want to discuss information and trading ideas, everyone can trade what he wants where he wants.

Surely there are enuf known and little known pundits making predictions and giving advice on just youtube to fill up your day sorting out the pump and dump frpm reality... I would not say I have ever been better off from a friends idea... or an idea from the news etc... one friend had a surefire scheme to win at roulette.. I was so excited and spent days trying it out at home... it never worked in a long trial... 

 

The only advice that ever seemed to work was buy and hold... which I accomplished easily and profitably when left in the hands of a wonderful investment lady who thought of her customers as family... and if I panicked, I knew before calling her that she would berate me for wanting to sell... and over a 20 year period, she did fantastic for me - now she is gone and I am left to want to sell the dips etc.. which is not working well for me... 

 

I actually like the idea of a group, but I doubt the reality would be fun, interesting or viable.

[Gsxrnz]

17 hours ago, bbko said:

Sounds like a good excuse to tell the the wives, "Tilac, I'm going to my investment meeting", comes back 4 hours later smelling of alcohol other scents...555. 

Just don't come home with your shirt inside out and it should be OK.  Don't ask me how I know.

[VocalNeal]

Just now, Gsxrnz said:

Just don't come home with your shirt inside out and it should be OK.  Don't ask me how I know.

Always take a bar of the same soap you use at home.

[Denim]

21 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Ask them a simple question like : what is a dividend?  

That's what you get down Soi 6 after parting with your cash isn't it ?

[Gsxrnz]

The best investment you'll ever make will be sheer luck or stupidity and rarely because of any real insight.  

 

[Gsxrnz]

11 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

Always take a bar of the same soap you use at home.

You too!

[jack7106]

I would certainly be interested in joining a group of like-minded individuals who invest in the stock market. I’m currently holding 176 companies and doing pretty well but I’m also open to garnering further information from people who are interested in investing????????????????

[dlclark97]

20 hours ago, tgw said:

I don't want to go the online route.

There is too much garbage to be found online, and it takes way too long to find out about how competent people are.

 

I have difficulty finding the right information online, most is useless.

 

Some reports I think have just the right level of detail for keeping informed about global markets are:

https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/global-markets-weekly-update.html

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/weekly-global-market-summary-highlights-november-29-2021.html

(for example, but they are clearly too light on EMEA and commodities)

 

I'd really like to keep it between a small group of people, probably have a CLOSED discussion group on facebook / line / whatsapp whatever and to regularly meet, talk about things, and bring tablets or laptops to show some graphs or data to the others.

 

There is absolutely no point in being fed the usual technical analysis BS with their trend lines and resistances and whatever.

taking a random position and setting a trailing stop works just as well.

Trailing stops can be good or bad.  Often there are temporary downward spikes possibly lasting only minutes that could trigger a sale only to be followed by a quick reversal.  You must set your stops to account for this possibility taking into account typical price variations for that particular stock.   

[VocalNeal]

1 hour ago, Gsxrnz said:

You too!

I have a mate who did the opposite, he changed the soap at home to the same one in the massage parlour.

[rwill]

Check out this blog for investing ideas.

 

Undervalued Shares: Common sense equity investments (undervalued-shares.com)

 

Also:

 

Lyn Alden – Investment Strategy

Edited December 4, 2021 by rwill

[Satcommlee]

It will be full of crooks very quickly queuing up to take your money.

 

 

[Darksidedude]

Pattaya and Investment are 2 words that do not make sense to me, may as well go to a casino and put all your money on black or red ha ha

 

[CH1961]

22 hours ago, tgw said:

And I'm not retired, but working in another field than financial markets

That means you want to sell us some magic colorful papers. 

Then you can enjoy the sun, beer and girls here in LOS. 

 

No thank you. I invest in mia noi. 

[GrandPapillon]

6 hours ago, VocalNeal said:

I have a mate who did the opposite, he changed the soap at home to the same one in the massage parlour.

brilliant, never thought of that. Do you have the brand name of the soap? asking for a friend ????

Edited December 4, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[GrandPapillon]

4 hours ago, VocalNeal said:

6 hours ago, Gsxrnz said:

Just don't come home with your shirt inside out and it should be OK.  Don't ask me how I know.

 

ah the voice of experience ????

 

taking notes ????

 

[GrandPapillon]

4 hours ago, dlclark97 said:

Trailing stops can be good or bad.  Often there are temporary downward spikes possibly lasting only minutes that could trigger a sale only to be followed by a quick reversal.  You must set your stops to account for this possibility taking into account typical price variations for that particular stock.   

absolutely, personally I think they are dangerous, above all in a volatile market, or in a volatile security. It's there officially to "protect" you, but in reality it creates stupid situation where you are more likely to make a loss.

 

I am sure there are guys that specialize in trailing stop or stop loss strategies, and can be successful with them, it's "meta" trading mechanics

[tgw]

7 hours ago, jack7106 said:

I would certainly be interested in joining a group of like-minded individuals who invest in the stock market. I’m currently holding 176 companies and doing pretty well but I’m also open to garnering further information from people who are interested in investing????????????????

nice! I wouldn't be able to keep up to date with that many companies though.

 

never had more than 15 lines in my portfolio, FX and portfolio corpses excepted.

[tgw]

4 hours ago, CH1961 said:

That means you want to sell us some magic colorful papers. 

Then you can enjoy the sun, beer and girls here in LOS. 

 

No thank you. I invest in mia noi. 

nope, I don't sell anything, nor do I promote anything.

 

[tgw]

5 hours ago, rwill said:

Check out this blog for investing ideas.

 

Undervalued Shares: Common sense equity investments (undervalued-shares.com)

 

Also:

 

Lyn Alden – Investment Strategy

Thanks for the links.

Read briefly three posts of the first one - that's not my cup of tea - the companies are too small, the actionable info is too shaky.

The second promotes crypto, so no.

I'm not into "undervalued shares", because most of the time, there is a good reason why they appear undervalued in the first place. All these companies have insiders with way better information, and they would have gotten the word out to their cronies if there was any information asymmetry.

Going for the cheap ones is not the best strategy, unless the research is rock solid, including a good reason why it's still cheap.

 

When I'm looking into stocks, I choose stocks of companies that are well-run, that are already successful but still growing, and which are posed to become even more successful because of structural and conjunctural factors, in addition to already being one of the best in what they do.

[GrandPapillon]

25 minutes ago, tgw said:

When I'm looking into stocks, I choose stocks of companies that are well-run, that are already successful but still growing, and which are posed to become even more successful because of structural and conjunctural factors, in addition to already being one of the best in what they do.

that's a big vague, it's like saying I want to buy stocks that are going to make me money

 

try to define your "investment style" first, that is big caps, midcaps or small caps

 

MidCap Value or MidCap Growth have been very good for the last 10 years, beating the S&P 500

 

just buy some silly index on MidCap Growth, and you should be fine

[GrandPapillon]

44 minutes ago, tgw said:

nice! I wouldn't be able to keep up to date with that many companies though.

 

never had more than 15 lines in my portfolio, FX and portfolio corpses excepted.

yeah 150 lines in a portfolio, that's like a full time job to keep up on news and fundamental changes ????

 

might as well buy an index, like the SET 100, or the SET 50, easier to run

 

with that many stocks, you won't beat the index, unless you are a crafted and seasoned portfolio manager

 

we used to run a concentrated 30/50 successful stocks and it was a full time job for the portfolio admin

Edited December 4, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[GrandPapillon]

6 hours ago, rwill said:

Check out this blog for investing ideas.

 

Undervalued Shares: Common sense equity investments (undervalued-shares.com)

 

interesting websites, thanks, looks nice, with cheap subscriptions

Edited December 4, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[Leaver]

 

A bunch of farang meeting, many with laptops, talking about money.  It should be ok, as long as you don't play Bridge.  ????

[tgw]

2 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

that's a big vague, it's like saying I want to buy stocks that are going to make me money

 

try to define your "investment style" first, that is big caps, midcaps or small caps

 

MidCap Value or MidCap Growth have been very good for the last 10 years, beating the S&P 500

 

just buy some silly index on MidCap Growth, and you should be fine

I guess my most important criterium after quality of the company is how much the company will react to the scenario I have determined.

 

For example, taking the recent microchips shortage, besides the Taiwanese worldwide #1 producers, one obvious answer could have been Bosch and its huge new chip production plant in Germany. Germany is great for industry, has good productivity gains and the Euro keeps German companies at an advantage within Europe and the cheap Euro helps with exports.
The problem is, Bosch is too huge and therefore its stock won't react much to a success in microchips. Another answer could have been Infineon, but that company has never been performing that well and just doesn't seem tooled to produce what's needed. Then I had a look at ASML, the Dutch company making machines that in turn produce microchips, and the Netherlands are on par with Germany for industry, productivity and exports, both to the EU and outside. And the company is also specialized enough to greatly benefit from shortages.
So ASML is in my eyes still a good bet today, but I'll wait until the current market/currency slump will have subsided.

 

I invest in specific industries/sectors preferably into companies that make most of their income in a specific sector which I expect to boom (or slump - for shorts).

 

But all the above is only about choosing a company to invest in - the premise is that *buying a stock* at all is the best way to translate the anticipated scenario into a trade.

Because the best trade might not be a stock at all. Or sometimes the trade will be going short instead of buying. Or buy bonds. Or short them. Or FX. Or a commodity. Microchip shortage? What if there was a microchips future? options? no such thing of course.

Some years back, I ran a position of 2 million Swiss short against the countervalue long in AUD, I paid 0.5% interest on the CHF, while the AUD was paying out around 4.5%.
Because I was fairly sure the SNB wanted to keep the CHF low, and Australia was exporting minerals like crazy, blowing up their trade balance and pushing the AUD up.

Kept that up for over a year, I raked in interest plus good gains on AUDCHF until the mining boom ended, then I knew it was over.

 

That's how I trade.

 

Or rather, how I traded.

I got distracted, I work on other stuff, I go play golf, play with the ladies... I forget to check my portfolio for weeks.

But this has to stop. I want to get in again.

The only thing I am missing from working at a bank are some rare few colleagues with which I could discuss my ideas. Sometimes I am blindsided and it was very good to get some totally fresh perspective on some questions.

 

On colleague in particular - he has a phd in nuclear physics and worked in government cryptography - has a mind that often works in a totally opposite way to mine. I would introduce an idea and then he would blow my mind with some aspects I totally missed. When we were both agreeing on something, we knew we had a winner.

Edited December 4, 2021 by tgw