ICE vs EV, the debate thread

[Yellowtail]

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

So this is what you resort to when you have no argument? 

 

Dude be like:

[VocalNeal]

3 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

The top model gas has an MSRP of 799,000 baht.  The EV model is 1,190,000 baht.  So just to get my money back, I have to save enough over 10 years to recoup 391,000 baht.

That is not why I would buy a hybrid. I would buy a hybrid for the extra 130hp-ish kick I would get went pulling away or when passing.

[Klonko]

Some people are very successful in finding the exceptions and remaining in their bubble. There are valid arguments against buying a BEV as a new car in the next two years in the Northwestern hemisphere, but such arguments apply to a minority only. Electric pick ups will also be available soon. In Thailand, you can make the argument of most BEV models being imported and too expensive. I just test drove and ordered an Ora Good Cat Ultra. For me good value at ⅓ of the price of a Tesla Model 3. No problem to add a refreshing stop on six hour rides.

 

For motorcycle touring in Europe, I will to stick to my ICE as long has real life ranges of 300km and fast chargers along my usual routes are not available. This is my minority interest.

[Longwood50]

19 hours ago, VocalNeal said:

That is not why I would buy a hybrid. I would buy a hybrid for the extra 130hp-ish kick I would get went pulling away or when passing

Well the reports are with the MG ZS which is what I was comparing shows the EV will go 0-60 KPR in 8.2 seconds while the gas model which is turbo will go 0-100 KPR in 8.2 seconds. 

[Longwood50]

20 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

But even if you bit the bullet and spent the $14K for all new, that should be good for another ten years, yes? 

Yes but using that logic a person can buy a 10 year old gas powered vehicle and replace the engine.  

I am not anti EV I just think that those who profess that they are "saving money" are not taking into account the higher cash outlay, up front, the loss of income on that extra money, the lower residual value, the cost of the charging station.  They are also assuming that electric rates will be low, which may or may not be true. 

Again, you may have googled it however if that was "retail" pricing at a dealer that is not what you as an owner would get.  It would also "likely" include a battery replacement since I can not imagine a dealer selling a ten year old Tesla with a ten year old battery in it.  

This is Kelly Blue Book what is the most recognized source of used car pricing in the USA.  Here is what they say the ten year old Tesla S. Top model is selling for at private party sale. 

[macahoom]

39 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Well the reports are with the MG ZS which is what I was comparing shows the EV will go 0-60 KPR in 8.2 seconds while the gas model which is turbo will go 0-100 KPR in 8.2 seconds. 

Hello. Can you please give me a link to where I can find these figures?

[Longwood50]

22 hours ago, KhunLA said:

I ran the numbers, and I think ROI would be well worth the extra money with the ZS EV vs ICE.

Well excuse me for suggesting that the U.S. Department of Energy may have a bit more expertise than "your calculation" 
Here is what its calculator estimated comparing a BMW 5 series to a Tesla S.  Notice they estimated the "total cost" of the Tesla to be higher. 

Also your notion of having to pay cash and having "no cost" is nonsensicle.  If I purchase a car and finance it, that additional amount has a finance cost.  However if I withdraw money from my investment account and only withdraw 799,000 baht and not 1.19 million baht, I have another 320,000 baht EARNING MONEY in my investment account.  Even earning a modest 5% rate of return on that money means the extra 320,000 cost me 527,072.

 

So there may be many reasons to buy an EV but I suggest "saving money" is not one of them.  If a person was only concerned with saving money, they would buy a 10 year old gas powered vehicle with nominal value. The estimated total cost of owning a new car ranges from $7,000 for a small sedan to over $`10,000 for a truck.  So even if a person was paying upwards of $2,500 per year for petrol it is only a fraction of the total expense and the person is only saving a portion of that by switching to electric. 

If the case for Electric Vehicles is so compelling then why is it that governments around the world are providing cash subsidies and having to ban ICE vehicles in order to entice people to buy them. 

Throughout history better technology is recognized by consumers and they rush to it.  

No one subsidizes an Iphone though it is far more expensive than other phones.  No one had to entice customers to purchase a cell phone rather than a land line.  No one has to entice customers to switch to inverter AC when replacing an AC unit. 
No one had to entice customers to purchase an LED television set vs. a Plasma, or conventional TV.  No one had to provide any incentives or ban VCR's in order for people to purchase digital video recorders. 

Isn't it strange that will all the accolades and attributes you believe EV vehicles provide that they appear to be the only area that government has to step in to provide cash subsidy offsets and ban their ICE alternatives in order for consumers to believe they are worth it. 



https://afdc.energy.gov/calc/

[Longwood50]

4 minutes ago, macahoom said:

Hello. Can you please give me a link to where I can find these figures?

https://www.electrifying.com/reviews/mg/zs-ev/performance

 

[placeholder]

30 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Well excuse me for suggesting that the U.S. Department of Energy may have a bit more expertise than "your calculation" 
Here is what its calculator estimated comparing a BMW 5 series to a Tesla S.  Notice they estimated the "total cost" of the Tesla to be higher. 

Also your notion of having to pay cash and having "no cost" is nonsensicle.  If I purchase a car and finance it, that additional amount has a finance cost.  However if I withdraw money from my investment account and only withdraw 799,000 baht and not 1.19 million baht, I have another 320,000 baht EARNING MONEY in my investment account.  Even earning a modest 5% rate of return on that money means the extra 320,000 cost me 527,072.

 

So there may be many reasons to buy an EV but I suggest "saving money" is not one of them.  If a person was only concerned with saving money, they would buy a 10 year old gas powered vehicle with nominal value. The estimated total cost of owning a new car ranges from $7,000 for a small sedan to over $`10,000 for a truck.  So even if a person was paying upwards of $2,500 per year for petrol it is only a fraction of the total expense and the person is only saving a portion of that by switching to electric. 

If the case for Electric Vehicles is so compelling then why is it that governments around the world are providing cash subsidies and having to ban ICE vehicles in order to entice people to buy them. 

Throughout history better technology is recognized by consumers and they rush to it.  

No one subsidizes an Iphone though it is far more expensive than other phones.  No one had to entice customers to purchase a cell phone rather than a land line.  No one has to entice customers to switch to inverter AC when replacing an AC unit. 
No one had to entice customers to purchase an LED television set vs. a Plasma, or conventional TV.  No one had to provide any incentives or ban VCR's in order for people to purchase digital video recorders. 

Isn't it strange that will all the accolades and attributes you believe EV vehicles provide that they appear to be the only area that government has to step in to provide cash subsidy offsets and ban their ICE alternatives in order for consumers to believe they are worth it. 



https://afdc.energy.gov/calc/

You sure that the government has to step in? The US government stopped subsidiizing Teslas starting Jan 1. 2020. It had actually been phasing those subsidies  out over several years. So, how did Tesla do in 2020 compared to 2019?

It sold 50% more cars than in the previous year.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-inc-us-sales-figures/

[KhunLA]

57 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Well excuse me for suggesting that the U.S. Department of Energy may have a bit more expertise than "your calculation" 

US Dept of Energy ... seriously, think you give them a bit more credit than they deserve.

 

USA holds more oil reserve than anyone, and yet, they import oil.   Energy grid is not running on solar, wind, hydro ... and these are intelligent people.

 

Simple math, MG ZS EV cost ฿400k more than ZS ICE

 

8 yr / 180k kms warranty on battery, and still have 80% capacity in 8 yrs

EV - 180k kms / 400 kms X ฿250 = ฿112,500

ICE - 180k kms / 11 kpl X ฿30 = ฿490,909

 

EV - ฿9000 est maintenance (MG site)

EV - no mandatory oil changes every 10k-18 X ฿2k = ฿36k

EV - no tune-up, no cam belt change = ฿100k (conservative)

EV - ฿112,500 + 9k + 400k = ฿521,500

ICE - ฿491k + 36k + 100k = ฿627k (฿105.5k)

 

Conclusion - EV cheaper to buy & own first 8 yrs.

Next 8 yrs EV cost 400 kms @ ฿250 

Next 8 yrs ICE cost 400 kms @ ฿1090 = 4 times as much just to 'fuel'

+ oil changes + tune ups / belt changes.

 

Leave the investing argument out of it, as quite silly.

 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by KhunLA

[placeholder]

On 3/16/2022 at 1:09 PM, Longwood50 said:

He says that batteries will not be "thrown away"  Again, maybe true but here is what is said about lithium car batteries and recycling. 

 

Are Lithium Car Batteries Recyclable?

Although lithium car batteries are recyclable, it is a costly and energy-intensive process. One significant setback is the modular composition of the battery cells within a battery pack. The cells are welded and glued together with such solidity that breaking them down requires a lot of human or machine power and emits greenhouse gasses along the way.

Most commonly, lithium batteries are recycled in large plants by a process of shredding the whole battery down to a powder. This powder is then either smelted (pyrometallurgy) or dissolved in acid (hydrometallurgy), thereby extracting the individual elements for resale.

 

One problem with this process is that when you remove the scarce, expensive metals like cobalt from the battery, the recycling industry is left with a lower value product to resell. Lithium is so cheap to mine so there’s no incentive to recycle the lithium in car batteries. Ironically, removing controversial elements like cobalt from the battery makes the process less worthwhile for companies that recycle lithium car batteries

Don't know where you got that info from but it's badly outdated. This is an except from JB Straublel, one of the founders of Tesla who has gone on to create Redwood, currently the largest recycler of batteries.

Battery Recycling Operations Already Profitable: JB Straubel

'We’re not profitable yet because we’re growing so quickly and we’re reinvesting and will be for quite a few years. But the actual operations of recycling these batteries, that is profitable today. There’s really a quite a hunger for these materials."

https://insideevs.com/news/564366/jb-straubel-battery-recycling-profitability/

 

 

[Longwood50]

15 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

US Dept of Energy ... seriously, think you give them a bit more credit than they deserve.

No I actually give you less credibility than a U.S. government agency and Forbes who said the same thing. I "think" you give yourself too much credit  

If I pay 320,000 baht more for an EV MG ZS and I lose $527,000 over the course of 10 years.  I have to save $527,000 baht over 10 years to "break even"  

The Bangkok Post lists that the MG ZS gets 15.1 KPL.  So that would mean I would burn 1,538 litres per year.  If I drove 24,000 KM each year.  At 38.8 baht per litre my total fuel cost would be 59,624.  The MG ZS EV has a 50.3 KW battery which would cost approximate 350 baht at 7 baht per KW and it would have a range of 403 KM.  So during a year I would have to fully charge it 59.55 times.  For a cost of 18,162 baht for a net savings of 41461.25 baht per year.  

So if I need to recover my extra expense just to purchase the car to say nothing of the additional insurance for the more expensive vehicle, or installation of a charging station, 527,000 baht / 41.461 equals 12.71 years 

If I drive less, the breakeven in years would be more.  If I drive more, the breakeven in years with be less.  If the price of electric goes up or conversely the price of petrol goes down it 

As I said, there "may" be reasons to own an EV but saving any money isn't one of them  Certainly if you were a taxi driver in Bangkok that might be different.  However the fewer KM per year you drive the less compelling the EV is because of the additional cost.  

Some assumptions that no one really knows the answer to is what is the residual value of a 10 year old MG ZS vs the MG ZS EV.   A portion of the additional expense of the EV "may" be recouped in 10 years with a higher resale value or alternatively the value may be zero if the cost of replacing the battery is excessive.  But we won't know that for 10 years. 

Obviously my thoughts are shared by many since buyers are not flocking to purchase electric vehicles but rather being enticed by government rebates to offset the higher costs or being forced into electric vehicles by banning ICE.  

If the case in favor of EV saving money was so compelling neither of those would be required. 


 

[placeholder]

42 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Obviously my thoughts are shared by many since buyers are not flocking to purchase electric vehicles but rather being enticed by government rebates to offset the higher costs or being forced into electric vehicles by banning ICE.  

If the case in favor of EV saving money was so compelling neither of those would be required. 


 

How do you know buyers are not flocking to buy EV's? Just because governments offer rebates, doesn't mean that they are essential to EV sales. In fact, if government offers were essential, why have the sales of EV's risen so sharply? The subsidies have been in place for several years already. Why the change?  As pointed out above, in the case of Tesla, sales actually skyrocketed in the USA after subsidies for their autos vanished.

And where exactly, apart from Norway, are sales of ICE vehicles currently banned or imminently to be banned?

Edited March 17, 2022 by placeholder

[KhunLA]

49 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

No I actually give you less credibility than a U.S. government agency and I "think" you give yourself too much credit  

... and yet, every branch of is dysfunctional and can't operate within it's budget, and trillion of debt, literally impossible to repay, and more every minute.   They are completely bankrupt.  Financial advice from them .. NO thanks

The Bangkok Post lists that the MG ZS gets 15.1 KPL.  

 ... I get 11 kpl, so much for their knowledge of the ZS.  Mutes anything Bkk Post has to say.

If I drive less, the breakeven in years would be more.  If I drive more, the breakeven in years with be less.  If the price of electric goes up or conversely the price of petrol goes down it 

... Everyone is different, they have to decide, I simply used the 8 yr/ 180k kms, since that's the warranty.  Easy math & simply a reference point.  Irrelevant how long it takes to rack up 180k, the longer the more you save, as fuel will be more expensive in the future, not less. 

 

Electric in Thailand has remained basically the same over the 20 yrs I've been here, UP maybe 25%, where petrol is 100+% more than when I arrived.  Go solar, and all is so much cheaper, as many are doing, and will in the future, such as myself.

 

Rest of your argument is speculative and wrong  IMHO.

x

[Yellowtail]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

You sure that the government has to step in? The US government stopped subsidiizing Teslas starting Jan 1. 2020. It had actually been phasing those subsidies  out over several years. So, how did Tesla do in 2020 compared to 2019?

It sold 50% more cars than in the previous year.

 

Yeah, they are selling great, and don't need subsidies, but states are still giving subsidies.

 

Electric Vehicle & Solar Incentives | Tesla 

[Yellowtail]

5 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

Yes but using that logic a person can buy a 10 year old gas powered vehicle and replace the engine.  

So what is your point? 

 

5 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

I am not anti EV

I never said you were, guilty conscience?

 

5 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

I just think that those who profess that they are "saving money" are not taking into account the higher cash outlay, up front, the loss of income on that extra money, the lower residual value, the cost of the charging station.  They are also assuming that electric rates will be low, which may or may not be true. 

People justify what they want to buy. If anyone were interested in saving money and or saving the environment they would be driving twenty year-old ICE economy cars. 

 

5 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

Again, you may have googled it however if that was "retail" pricing at a dealer that is not what you as an owner would get.  It would also "likely" include a battery replacement since I can not imagine a dealer selling a ten year old Tesla with a ten year old battery in it.  

So what of it? 

 

5 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

This is Kelly Blue Book what is the most recognized source of used car pricing in the USA.  Here is what they say the ten year old Tesla S. Top model is selling for at private party sale. 

Do you have a point? 

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

And where exactly, apart from Norway, are sales of ICE vehicles currently banned or imminently to be banned?

It depends on how you define imminently. California has a ban on new ICE sales scheduled and do other states. 

 

If you're an automaker, does that not enter into decisions about your investments/product offering?

 

How about a little honesty.  

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Yellowtail
clarity

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Yeah, they are selling great, and don't need subsidies, but states are still giving subsidies.

 

Electric Vehicle & Solar Incentives | Tesla 

First off, here is what Longwood claimed:

"Isn't it strange that will all the accolades and attributes you believe EV vehicles provide that they appear to be the only area that government has to step in to provide cash subsidy offsets and ban their ICE alternatives in order for consumers to believe they are worth it. "

 

Clearly, despite fact that most, if not all the subsidies on Tesla vanished in 2020, depending on where one lives,. a Tesla sales zoomed up by 50% that same year , gives the lie to Longwood's claim that it's the subsidies that makes consumers want to purchase Teslas. If his claim was true, a decline in subsidies should have been followed by a decline in sales.

 

 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

It depends on how you define imminently. California has a ban on new ICE sales scheduled and do other states. 

 

If you're an automaker, does that not enter into decisions about your investments/product offering?

 

How about a little honesty.  

 

California has a ban on the sale of new ICE vehicles starting in 2035. You think that's going to have an effect on current purchases?

And, what you fail to mention is that many states require that you purchase an auto through a dealership. Tesla doesn't sell through dealerships. One of those state is Texas, the state with the second highest population. Not only that but all the states bordering Texas have a similar ban. Ya think these prohibitions might have an effect on sales?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cant-buy-tesla-states-161318245.html

 

How about a little honesty?

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

First off, here is what Longwood claimed:

"Isn't it strange that will all the accolades and attributes you believe EV vehicles provide that they appear to be the only area that government has to step in to provide cash subsidy offsets and ban their ICE alternatives in order for consumers to believe they are worth it. "

 

Clearly, despite fact that most, if not all the subsidies on Tesla vanished in 2020, depending on where one lives,. a Tesla sales zoomed up by 50% that same year , gives the lie to Longwood's claim that it's the subsidies that makes consumers want to purchase Teslas. If his claim was true, a decline in subsidies should have been followed by a decline in sales.

I never said his claim was true, just that your was false. 

 

Again, a little honesty in the the thread would be nice. 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I never said his claim was true, just that your was false. 

 

Again, a little honesty in the the thread would be nice. 

What was false in my claim?

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

California has a ban on the sale of new ICE vehicles starting in 2035. You think that's going to have an effect on current purchases?

I never said it it had an effect on vehicle sales, why make things up? I said: "If you're an automaker, does that not enter into decisions about your investments/product offering?"

 

Is it your position it would not?

 

 

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

And, what you fail to mention is that many states require that you purchase an auto through a dealership. Tesla doesn't sell through dealerships. One of those state is Texas, the state with the second highest population. Not only that but all the states bordering Texas have a similar ban. Ya think these prohibitions might have an effect on sales?

I assume it has a negative impact on sales. That said, you can go to a Tesla showroom in Texas, test drive one, and then order it online. 

 

Does Texas allow other automakers to sell direct? No. Is there anything stopping Tesla from opening dealerships in Texas? No.

 

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

How about a little honesty?

You first

[Yellowtail]

12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What was false in my claim?

The implication. 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

I never said it it had an effect on vehicle sales, why make things up? I said: "If you're an automaker, does that not enter into decisions about your investments/product offering?"

 

Is it your position it would not?

 

 

I assume it has a negative impact on sales. That said, you can go to a Tesla showroom in Texas, test drive one, and then order it online. 

 

Does Texas allow other automakers to sell direct? No. Is there anything stopping Tesla from opening dealerships in Texas? No.

 

You first

It's thirteen years away.  So, no, not yet going to have an effect on their decisions.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

The implication. 

My point remains perfectly valid. The biggest subsidy by far declined then vanished. Despite which sales zoomed. That gives the lie to Longwood's claim that subsidies were necessary to the sales of EV's. The continued existence of other subsidies doesn't alter that fact.

[Longwood50]

4 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Do you have a point? 

My only point has and continues to be that those that are purchasing EV and convincing themselves that "they are saving money" are excercising a "want in search of a need"  

The idea that you can pay $60,000 to $100,000 for EV vehicle and recoup it via fuel savings which amount to only about 20% of the operating cost of a vehicle are kidding themselves.  

They are focusing only on fuel and not the biggest expense of owning a car.  "depreciation"  With an EV you pay thousands more but it depreciates faster.   As to the engine replacement, that was about the comment that after 10 years you can replace the battery pack and get another 10 years.  You can do the same by replaceing the engine in an ICE.  Both of those ignore that the power train is not the only thing that deteriorates over time.  

[Yellowtail]

9 hours ago, placeholder said:

It's thirteen years away.  So, no, not yet going to have an effect on their decisions.

That's hilarious. What do/did you do for a living?  

[Yellowtail]

8 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

My only point has and continues to be that those that are purchasing EV and convincing themselves that "they are saving money" are excercising a "want in search of a need"  

The idea that you can pay $60,000 to $100,000 for EV vehicle and recoup it via fuel savings which amount to only about 20% of the operating cost of a vehicle are kidding themselves.  

They are focusing only on fuel and not the biggest expense of owning a car.  "depreciation"  With an EV you pay thousands more but it depreciates faster.   As to the engine replacement, that was about the comment that after 10 years you can replace the battery pack and get another 10 years.  You can do the same by replaceing the engine in an ICE.  Both of those ignore that the power train is not the only thing that deteriorates over time.  

So what? It almost NEVER makes economic sense to buy a new car. 

[KhunLA]

44 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

So what? It almost NEVER makes economic sense to buy a new car. 

You do lose a bit, not so much in Thailand, when you drive off the lot.  Only bought 1 new car / truck in USA, in 25 ish years, and that was for my work, as needing something dependable.  Most others were 5-10 years, and usually kept till I killed them. 

 

One was 25 yrs old, 1950 Buick Special bought 1975.  I've done most repairs, major, swap out motor, trans, rears.  When they started putting all the anti pollution c r a p, started buying newer & better, plus had more money.  When poor, you learn to be a mechanic fast or walk a lot.

 

Here, on 4th new one in 20 years ... ????  Go figure, talk about being lazy.  Won't even do an oil change.

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

You do lose a bit, not so much in Thailand, when you drive off the lot.  Only bought 1 new car / truck in USA, in 25 ish years, and that was for my work, as needing something dependable.  Most others were 5-10 years, and usually kept till I killed them. 

 

One was 25 yrs old, 1950 Buick Special bought 1975.  I've done most repairs, major, swap out motor, trans, rears.  When they started putting all the anti pollution c r a p, started buying newer & better, plus had more money.  When poor, you learn to be a mechanic fast or walk a lot.

 

Here, on 4th new one in 20 years ... ????  Go figure, talk about being lazy.  Won't even do an oil change.

Yes, but you buy them because you want them, not because you're going to save money by doing so. 

 

I like buying new cars as well.