Prolonged Russia-Ukraine war could derail Thai economic recovery

[CygnusX1]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

“I would like to send a morale support for President Vladimir Putin and the Russian army. I always like his leadership and decisiveness and he is clearly friendly to the Kingdom of Thailand and trustworthy, like President Xi Jinping,” wrote Police Major General Rianthong Nanna, the director of Mongkutwattana Hospital

That’s almost unbelievable!!

[khunPer]

Well written article and good overview on the situation as present.

[Mr Meeseeks]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Meanwhile we have those in high positions here actively embracing the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

 

Opinion: Thailand’s conservatives are throwing their support behind Putin, should we be surprised?

 

“I would like to send a morale support for President Vladimir Putin and the Russian army. I always like his leadership and decisiveness and he is clearly friendly to the Kingdom of Thailand and trustworthy, like President Xi Jinping,” wrote Police Major General Rianthong Nanna, the director of Mongkutwattana Hospital.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/37935/opinion-thailands-conservatives-are-throwing-their-support-behind-putin-should-we-be-surprised/

 

No surprise. Inadequate men often show support and admiration for these types of people.

 

And there are plenty of inadequate men in the RTP.

[JackGats]

58 minutes ago, Enoon said:

I don't really know, is this relevant?:

 

"The new ban on the Central Bank of Russia's ability to use its roughly $630bn in foreign reserves undermines its ability to defend the rouble. Inflation is likely to go up because of the currency's weakness."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60550992

 

 

Yes. I found the same info. God news.

[JackGats]

40 minutes ago, CygnusX1 said:

Huge difference is that whatever the horrendous mistakes made by US  administrations, all of the major conflicts that the US has been involved in have been in countries already riven by terrible internal strife. It takes a special kind of evil to invade a peaceful, stable nation, only someone like a Putin or a Hitler being capable of that.

Well, Sadam's Irak was a prosperous stable nation, at war only with Iran. How's that for evil?

[4MyEgo]

37 minutes ago, CygnusX1 said:

Huge difference is that whatever the horrendous mistakes made by US  administrations, all of the major conflicts that the US has been involved in have been in countries already riven by terrible internal strife. It takes a special kind of evil to invade a peaceful, stable nation, only someone like a Putin or a Hitler being capable of that.

I suppose this conflict has had nothing to do with countries near Russia joining NATO then, wonder how China would respond if the same was applied closer to it's borders. 

 

I note that Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, didn't it invade Cyprus back in 1974 and still holds half of it. Were sanctions applied to Turkey and are there still sanctions applied to Turkey to this day ?

[CygnusX1]

3 minutes ago, JackGats said:

Well, Sadam's Irak was a prosperous stable nation, at war only with Iran. How's that for evil?

With no internal conflicts? I suppose Saddam’s torturers were pretty efficient in enforcing order.

[CygnusX1]

12 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

suppose this conflict has had nothing to do with countries near Russia joining NATO then, wonder how China would respond if the same was applied closer to it's borders. 

Since NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, assume you mean something like if India, Nepal, Vietnam etc formed some kind of alliance. That would absolutely not justify China’s invading one of those nations.

12 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

note that Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, didn't it invade Cyprus back in 1974 and still holds half of it. Were sanctions applied to Turkey and are there still sanctions applied to Turkey to this day ?

Whatever the rights and wrongs of the Turkey/Cyprus conflict, or if Turkey should have been sanctioned, it does not excuse Putin’s actions in any way whatsoever.

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by CygnusX1

[placeholder]

21 minutes ago, JackGats said:

Well, Sadam's Irak was a prosperous stable nation, at war only with Iran. How's that for evil?

Except that it was Iraq that attacked Iran. JackGats' example was about a prosperous stable nation being attacked which is exactly the reverse case. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by placeholder

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

I suppose this conflict has had nothing to do with countries near Russia joining NATO then, wonder how China would respond if the same was applied closer to it's borders. 

 

I note that Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, didn't it invade Cyprus back in 1974 and still holds half of it. Were sanctions applied to Turkey and are there still sanctions applied to Turkey to this day ?

Turkey did attack Cyprus. But this was after there was a coup on Cyprus that supported a program to make Cyprus part of Greece (enosis).

[sanuk711]

17 minutes ago, khunPer said:

Well written article and good overview on the situation as present.

I just can not see the Causality in that full article KhunPeter---- Of course Oil will go up for the world- Just like it did in the 70s.....(unless you produce it)

of course travel will be more expensive--For the world.

The Article headlines that This war could derail Thailand recovery--then goes to explain the great opportunities that will (could) come out of it.

Russia  being banned would mean Thailand possibly taking over their Rubber/Fishery markets. worth hundreds of millions.

 

This is the down side that will derail Thailand recovery  ??

Seems your always get lots of Kudos if you write an article headline that predicts Thailand's (The Baht's) demise.- ergo, us Ex-pats should be better off.

 

Thailand could find new markets for products that were earlier supplied by Russia or Ukraine.

For example, Russia exports rubber products to the US worth about $170 million per year,

while Thailand also exports such goods to the US with an estimated value of over $155 million.

Thailand has the potential to replace Russia’s rubber exports to the US market.

There is also an estimated $50 million in Russian fishery exports to the EU each year.

Thailand is one country that has the potential to replace fish supplies

[Mr Meeseeks]

25 minutes ago, JackGats said:

Well, Sadam's Irak was a prosperous stable nation, at war only with Iran. How's that for evil?

They invaded Kuwait in 1991, lest we forget. 

[RichardColeman]

As the rouble has just lost about 25% against the baht, I imagine they wont be selling much now ! Looks like they have stopped trading it .

 

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=THB&view=12H

Edited February 28, 2022 by RichardColeman

[HappyExpat57]

Any idea how many permanent Russian residents there are in Thailand? The SWIFT sanction is gonna screw them over through no fault of their own. Not just a terrible exchange rate, there is currently NO exchange available to them.

[Jingthing]

7 minutes ago, HappyExpat57 said:

Any idea how many permanent Russian residents there are in Thailand? The SWIFT sanction is gonna screw them over through no fault of their own. Not just a terrible exchange rate, there is currently NO exchange available to them.

Yes could be a lot of pain for many innocent people but of course they're not all that innocent.

[superal]

4 hours ago, harada said:

Considering what Vlad The Unhinged had to say this morning it may not be far off, unfortunately.

  5 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Hard to believe they aren't bombing Russia right now.  

Considering what Vlad The Unhinged had to say this morning it may not be far off, unfortunately.

 

That would be uncalled for because the majority of the Russian population are against the invasion of Ukraine . Putin is the target , dead or alive , sooner rather than later .Isn't that what happened in the middle east in the recent years i.e the leading tyrants taken out ? 

 

 

 

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, superal said:

  5 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Hard to believe they aren't bombing Russia right now.  

Considering what Vlad The Unhinged had to say this morning it may not be far off, unfortunately.

 

That would be uncalled for because the majority of the Russian population are against the invasion of Ukraine . Putin is the target , dead or alive , sooner rather than later .Isn't that what happened in the middle east in the recent years i.e the leading tyrants taken out ? 

 

 

 

I don't believe for a second that the majority are against it. Plenty yes but the majority only watch state media full of lies.

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, vandeventer said:

I just wonder if all the worlds nukes were aimed at Putin's residents would he be invading Ukraine???

He appears ready to escalate if needs arise.... 

[Harveyboy]

7 hours ago, Stefanix said:

Thailand: join in and sanction Russia! Cut off the flights! Russia needs to feel as much pressure as possible. The only way forward is the people in Russia standing up against this regime! Russian oligarchs should spend their vacation in North Korea!

i agree but you are asking Thais to refuse the Chance of getting cash ...Big Dream they'd sell their soul for a baht...

[Harveyboy]

38 minutes ago, HappyExpat57 said:

Any idea how many permanent Russian residents there are in Thailand? The SWIFT sanction is gonna screw them over through no fault of their own. Not just a terrible exchange rate, there is currently NO exchange available to them.

yes i saw on TT exchange no rates shown ..does that mean we won't be seeing russians out and about in Thailand...What a shame.

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

He appears ready to escalate if needs arise.... 

I read a piece on twitter that was reported from Russian state TV last night. A prominent pro Putin presenter was referring to the wests sanctions and of blocking Russia from the world. He said, "if Russia is no longer part of the world, then there is no need to have a world" A chilling statement.

 

Very similar to where Putin himself in a 2018 interview said. Why do we need a world without Russia in it?"

 

Back to today.........

 

"Putin's in a tight spot," believes Moscow-based defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer. "He doesn't have many options left, once the West freezes the assets of the Russian Central bank and Russia's financial system actually implodes. That will make the system unworkable.

"One option for him is to cut gas supplies to Europe, hoping that will make the Europeans climb down. Another option is to explode a nuclear weapon somewhere over the North Sea between Britain and Denmark and see what happens."

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60551140

[superal]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

I don't believe for a second that the majority are against it. Plenty yes but the majority only watch state media full of lies.

State media lies ? yes that is true, however many Russians are aware of that and get the true news via the internet and spread the word by mouth . Lets not forget that there are related families in both Ukraine and Russia and there is a certain reluctance from some of the Russian troops to assault Ukrainians according to a SKY TV report .  Despite huge foreign reserves , Putin is now concerned that his war strategy is collapsing around him and his huge personal wealth is disappearing at a rapid rate , along with the dirty money held by the oligarchs . Also the Russian public  are realising that they are being cut off from the rest of the world .   

Finally , Putin's invasion was prompted by an agreement with NATO some years ago when NATO agreed to having a strategic gap between Russian boundaries and any NATO nation . There was intent/ discussions on the Ukraine joining NATO which Putin said broke the treaty . Ironically if Russia secure the Ukraine they will have borders with several NATO countries and then what ?

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, CygnusX1 said:

Since NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, assume you mean something like if India, Nepal, Vietnam etc formed some kind of alliance. That would absolutely not justify China’s invading one of those nations.

Why not expand NATO for the greater good of course.

 

1 hour ago, CygnusX1 said:

Whatever the rights and wrongs of the Turkey/Cyprus conflict, or if Turkey should have been sanctioned, it does not excuse Putin’s actions in any way whatsoever.

No one is excusing Putin's actions, but when you provide countries with NATO support, right up to Russia's borders, your looking for a fight.

 

I hear in the background, the USA had no interest in providing the Ukraine with NATO support, but they wouldn't give Russia the time of day to let them know that, after repeated requests, in other words, it serves someone's purpose in making money, but that's another story.

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Turkey did attack Cyprus. But this was after there was a coup on Cyprus that supported a program to make Cyprus part of Greece (enosis).

You forgot to mention one very important part: 

 

On July 20, 1974, Turkey invaded Cyprus, violating all rules of international law, including the Charter of the United Nations.

 

I suppose something similar to how things are playing out in Ukraine with Russia invading.

 

Two wrongs don't make a right, or something like that.

 

 

[jacko45k]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I read a piece on twitter that was reported from Russian state TV last night. A prominent pro Putin presenter was referring to the wests sanctions and of blocking Russia from the world. He said, "if Russia is no longer part of the world, then there is no need to have a world" A chilling statement.

 

Very similar to where Putin himself in a 2018 interview said. Why do we need a world without Russia in it?"

 

Back to today.........

 

"Putin's in a tight spot," believes Moscow-based defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer. "He doesn't have many options left, once the West freezes the assets of the Russian Central bank and Russia's financial system actually implodes. That will make the system unworkable.

"One option for him is to cut gas supplies to Europe, hoping that will make the Europeans climb down. Another option is to explode a nuclear weapon somewhere over the North Sea between Britain and Denmark and see what happens."

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60551140

Decidedly just as chilling......

[BangkokReady]

6 hours ago, hotchilli said:

It worked for Putin in Crimea, the world was aghast, then sat back and let it happen.

After the dust settled life went back to normal... except for the residents of Crimea.

The same will happen for Ukraine.

 

I think Crimea was a little more complicated. Although I'm sure it was mostly manufactured by Russia, it did have the feel of a civil war about it, which countries generally don't get involved in unless there are war crimes or genocide..

 

The invasion of The Ukraine is quite different.

[HappyExpat57]

53 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Yes could be a lot of pain for many innocent people but of course they're not all that innocent.

To be fair, I don't believe there is a single member on this forum whose government hasn't done some pretty rotten acts at one time or another. It's not fair to paint all Russians with the Putin brush, and many Russians in their mother country are getting jailed for protesting this abomination.

[BangkokReady]

13 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Decidedly just as chilling......

Another option is to withdraw from the Ukraine.

[Jingthing]

6 minutes ago, HappyExpat57 said:

To be fair, I don't believe there is a single member on this forum whose government hasn't done some pretty rotten acts at one time or another. It's not fair to paint all Russians with the Putin brush, and many Russians in their mother country are getting jailed for protesting this abomination.

You misunderstood.

I agree with the above but SOME obviously will have some or a lot of complicity.

[Iron Tongue]

1 hour ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

They invaded Kuwait in 1991, lest we forget. 

Iraq also invaded Iran in 1980.

Saddam was hoping the chaos from the 1979 revolution would be a good opportunity for him to steal Iran's oil fields.  All he succeeded in was to help the Ayatollahs cement their power over Iran by unifying resistance to Iraq.