Russian exodus puts Thailand’s tourism rebirth at risk as Asia longs for absent visitors

[JensenZ]

2 minutes ago, timendres said:

The real risk to Putin is if the attack on the Ruble and on Russia's natural reserve exports becomes too expensive and costs the Russian oligarchs too much money. The average citizen is of no concern to Putin.

This is what the world hopes for, but I suspect he planned well for this, considering all possible scenarios.

[Will B Good]

5 minutes ago, timendres said:

The real risk to Putin is if the attack on the Ruble and on Russia's natural reserve exports becomes too expensive and costs the Russian oligarchs too much money. The average citizen is of no concern to Putin.

Interesting article written by a Russian explaining that oligarchs break down into two groups.......... financial ones running (raping) state industries, who owe everything to Putin.......... and political ones who are either too weak to do anything or agree with everything he is doing...........he has it all sewn up......basically, don't hold your breath, Putin is here to stay.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Will B Good

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, Will B Good said:

Interesting article written by a Russian explaining that oligarchs break down into two groups.......... financial ones running (raping) state industries, who owe everything to Putin.......... and political ones who are either too weak to do anything or agree with everything he is doing...........he has it all sewn up......basically, don't hold your breath, Putin is here to stay.

Just like Zi and the little fat Rocket Man.....

[Pedrogaz]

To absent friends. Raise your glasses, gentlemen, please!

[grain]

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Sounds like the tourist dollar is more than 20% of the GDP

Yes, this amuses me actually because when tourism was soaring in Thailand and anyone suggested that the Thais should look after the foreign tourists a bit better or they might lose some of the market, all we heard was tourism only accounts for a tiny bit of the GDP, I've seen 10% and 17% mentioned. And if all the tourists stayed away it wouldn't make an iota of difference, Thailand doesn't need them. Yeah well...

[Isaan sailor]

56 minutes ago, timendres said:

The real risk to Putin is if the attack on the Ruble and on Russia's natural reserve exports becomes too expensive and costs the Russian oligarchs too much money. The average citizen is of no concern to Putin.

Putin has amassed personal wealth to rival the oligarchs.  Does that not also make him a Russian oligarch?

[Peterphuket]

5 hours ago, 2 is 1 said:

You can open your mouth in Russia and get 15 years prison sentence! You want tell some truth and spend next 15 years in Siberia? I dont think so!

Pardon? Is it in the LOS different?

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, timendres said:

"The dollar rises" only relative to the decimated ruble. It has moved tiddlywinks against the THB. The current attack on the Russian banking system, and other weaponization of money and banking, puts the dollar's reserve status in jeopardy. More and more nations and individuals are becoming aware of the tenuous "stability" and "reliability" of owning USD. If the USD loses its precious reserve currency status, it will not be worth much.

I get that. Washington needs to stop the spending immediately..  But which currency could replace the Dollar?  The Ruble, the Chinese Yuan? Euro? Japanese Yen?

At one time, the Pound Sterling was reserve currency, but it hasn’t faired too badly since.

[vandeventer]

9 hours ago, keith101 said:

I hope they do the right thing when they get home and spread the truth about what Putin is doing to Ukraine .

The only real way of stopping the war is to put Putin down permanently and forever in other words 6 ft under . 

I find it hard to believe that Russians don't know what's going on in Ukraine and their support for Putin has gone up since the war on Ukraine. Surly the Russians can't be this uncaring.

[Nojohndoe]

50 minutes ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

It’s quite funny to read here “expert” opinions on Russia. Clueless is the right word. The root of miscalculations that the west did about Russia is in measuring absolutely everything in terms of economic cost. However, at this point economic cost has become irrelevant. Much deeper considerations are involved, on psychological and human levels, before which economic cost pales in comparison. This is an existential threat to Russia and it will be eliminated. The west will be forced to recognize this in the coming months as it begins to bear the burden of its miscalculations.

In which direction ?  Actual rather than  made public opinion  favours a  change away  from the status quo of authoritarian constriction

 

[Nojohndoe]

1 hour ago, JensenZ said:

This is what the world hopes for, but I suspect he planned well for this, considering all possible scenarios.

In the opposite direction of general political concern wealth will be a factor of consideration  well ahead of the  faux "humanitarian" issues.

 If humanitarian  concern was ever paramount  in any political  consideration why  do  nations  continue to starve while they supply  the rich?

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

It’s quite funny to read here “expert” opinions on Russia. Clueless is the right word. The root of miscalculations that the west did about Russia is in measuring absolutely everything in terms of economic cost. However, at this point economic cost has become irrelevant. Much deeper considerations are involved, on psychological and human levels, before which economic cost pales in comparison. This is an existential threat to Russia and it will be eliminated. The west will be forced to recognize this in the coming months as it begins to bear the burden of its miscalculations.

And your never wrong.....right....lol

[RayOday]

<deleted> the Russians. They can't pay their money had been seized. Stand up to your dictator. Thailand should suffer for remaining neutral on Putin. Shameful parallels. I won't list the equivalencies which there are many. A corrupt regime is being held to account and Thailand will experience the knock on effects which is justified. Lay down with dogs and suffer. No compassion for the losers in a corrupt government.

[Soikhaonoiken]

6 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

sorry ,cancell that the new surge is backpackers ,they will save the day

Those quality high end spenders Thailand has been searching for ...????????

[Soikhaonoiken]

Thailand is in for a Rough ride regarding Tourist numbers, yes , Russian/Ukraine Tourists will take a Dive, but the rest of European tourists will also drop, the price have flights have increased by nearly 80%

from last year ( I'm only quoting Etihad flights ) but I'm sure other Airlines prices will increase due to fuel costs, also the hoops Tourist are expected to jump through on top of all the other problems..

[Walker88]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

and massive hyper inflation.

Hyper-bole, maybe, but hyperinflation....not quite 1921 Germany.

 

The majority of the inflation is not even related to money printing, as under Pres Biden the deficit fell $350 billion in the first year, vs the last year of spendthrift 45. The deficit in Fiscal 2022 is projected to be $1 trillion less than 45's last year. (That may change due to the war, as corp profits---and hence tax remittances, are likely to fall).

 

A few things are at play....the world is recovering from Covid, so pent up demand evidences itself in kind of an instant bidding war. That should fade over time.

 

Another is the rise in the price of oil, which can be attributed to 1) recovery from Covid, 2) the wide use of crypto, which is massively energy intensive*, and 3) the russian invasion of Ukraine and the concomitant sanctions against russian oil plus the risk premium.

 

Also contributing is that Ukraine produces 14% of the world's wheat, 18% of its barley, and about 15% of corn.

 

Pres Biden is being attacked---as if inflation hasn't been building up since 45 ran up a near 40% in the US' total debt over 240 years---re fossil fuels, but those attacks are bogus. There are 9000 oil and gas drilling leases in the hands of the oil industry that are not even being used. That isn't Biden's fault. Also, folks like to toss out "Keystone Pipeline", as if that 1) would even be completed by now, and 2) that what it carries would be used in the US. In point of fact, that pipeline was to be built to the Gulf...for export.

 

*a single btc transaction requires more energy than the typical US home uses in 24 days, while btc mining uses more energy than the combined energy used by Amazon, Netflix, Google, and Facebook in their actual business activity.

 

The current inflation, of course, is worldwide, and is sure to impact Thai tourism, but it isn't hyperinflation nor even a fraction of that.

[Tug]

15 hours ago, keith101 said:

I hope they do the right thing when they get home and spread the truth about what Putin is doing to Ukraine .

The only real way of stopping the war is to put Putin down permanently and forever in other words 6 ft under . 

Agree 100% and btw I don’t think Thailand needs tourists whose currency is valueless ie worthless I wouldent be surprised if a lot of russan oil is beeing bought at a deep discount and passed onto the consumer at inflated prices as well

[LivingNThailand]

5 hours ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

11 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

sorry ,cancell that the new surge is backpackers ,they will save the day

Those quality high end spenders Thailand has been searching for ...????????

I was at Phuket immigration last week and I was  shocked at all the “high end” spenders looking for visa extensions.  ????  What happened?   Didn’t they get the memo?   The collective lot probably spends 1,000 baht a day.  Sad really.  ???? I wish they would print the truth.  There are no high end spenders here.  Getting tired of all the nonsense.  

Edited March 12, 2022 by LivingNThailand
Typo

[Walker88]

11 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

I get that. Washington needs to stop the spending immediately..  But which currency could replace the Dollar?  The Ruble, the Chinese Yuan? Euro? Japanese Yen?

At one time, the Pound Sterling was reserve currency, but it hasn’t faired too badly since.

Those who forever predict the demise of the dollar have little understanding of either economics or markets.

 

Sure, someday the dollar will be gone, but that is not within the lifetime of anyone now alive.

 

The dollar has much to recommend it:

 

-markets large enough to accept any amount of investment

-an open and democratic govt

-the largest economy in the world

-the most powerful military that ever existed

-the desire of humans to have a means of exchange that makes it unnecessary for us to kill each other to get something to eat

 

Folks have been predicting the demise of the dollar almost as long as people have predicted the end of time. Yet.....the beat goes on.

 

As for spending, all the US need do is occasionally show it cares about the level of spending. Pres Biden's 1st year deficit was $350 billion below 45's last year in office. Fiscal 2022 is projected by the OMB to come in $1 trillion less than 45's last year.

[Stygge]

12 hours ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

It’s quite funny to read here “expert” opinions on Russia. Clueless is the right word. The root of miscalculations that the west did about Russia is in measuring absolutely everything in terms of economic cost. However, at this point economic cost has become irrelevant. Much deeper considerations are involved, on psychological and human levels, before which economic cost pales in comparison. This is an existential threat to Russia and it will be eliminated. The west will be forced to recognize this in the coming months as it begins to bear the burden of its miscalculations.

Wow

You are living in a parallel universe.
"This is an existential threat to Russia and it will be eliminated"
Let´s see. A country of 40 m with a weak economy and a small army would be an existential threat to a country of 140 m people with the third largest army in the world armed with nuklear weapons?
Do you mean that? Really?
And the majority of russians don´t mind  going back to a soviet era turnip based lifestyle?
And they all love Vlad the Mad and follow his commands with enthusiasm?
In the russian paradise 500 families own more then the rest of the 140 m together. To those 500 economy certainly seem to matter. They go to long length to place their money in the west, and they send their children to schools in the decandent west. Why? They won´t feel the pinch?

An authoritharian militarised system with no regard to it´s own human losses and even less to the invaded countries civilian losses against a democratic free economic system which values human life and use economical pressure to make a point.
 

To parallel  universes colliding.
Let´s see how this plays out. To me the outcome is given.


 

[herfiehandbag]

17 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Rather irresponsible to blame the current crisis on the Russians or lack thereof. This was many years in the making. Covid was a bad hit, but the extremely timid response to Covid has been far worse here. They have utterly decimated and sabotaged the tourism industry. Thank Anutin, Prayuth and Phiphat for taking away millions of jobs from the Thai people. 

 

All said, it does not seem fair to Russian citizens, to have locked up their funds. Surely, there could have been a more reasonable way to accomplish these objectives. 

Reasonable ways to accomplish these objectives rather go out of the window when you ( your country) invades a neighbour, sends teams of mercenaries to attempt to assassinate its leading politicians, bombs, shells and rockets it's cities, indiscriminately kills civilian refugees and then, when neighbouring (European) countries object and try to help the country you are doing all this to, make less than subtle threats to use nuclear weapons against them - my country included.

 

Not being able to get cash on your visa card rather pales by comparison!

[Cake Monster]

18 hours ago, internationalism said:

russians started to come in large numbers from the beginning of year, to escape incoming war.

Some of them did not expect an economic hardship and are forced back to sort out bank problems.

More would be coming, just to escape russian emergency laws, conscription, war taxes. But it would a fraction, maybe only some 10%, of what was happening for over 2 months.

Of those that started to arrive in Thailand ( and other Countries ) at the start of the Year, there will be a number among them, and some who are already long stayers, who are will be able to " facilitate  " the needs of their fellow Countrymen while they escape the war.

Many of those that are able to flee the Sanctions Etc, have already done so, several Months ago, and will be sitting on a Beach somewhere sipping a Cold Beer, and not worrying about the War.

They have sufficient funds and contacts that Sanctions are laughable. They will not have so many issues as the average Russian Oil Worker Etc who has no contacts, and has no option left but to return to Putingrad.

[placeholder]

22 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

Not to worry.

 

TAT and the Tourism Ministry assured us all very recently that soon 10 million visitors from the Middle East will be pouring in thanks to the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi-Arabia (a country of 35 million, of which only 12 million are actually locals).

False

Saudi Arabia

People and Society

Population

34,783,757 (July 2021 est.)
note: immigrants make up 38.3% of the total population, according to UN data (2019)

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/saudi-arabia/#people-and-society

[spidermike007]

9 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Hyper-bole, maybe, but hyperinflation....not quite 1921 Germany.

 

The majority of the inflation is not even related to money printing, as under Pres Biden the deficit fell $350 billion in the first year, vs the last year of spendthrift 45. The deficit in Fiscal 2022 is projected to be $1 trillion less than 45's last year. (That may change due to the war, as corp profits---and hence tax remittances, are likely to fall).

 

A few things are at play....the world is recovering from Covid, so pent up demand evidences itself in kind of an instant bidding war. That should fade over time.

 

Another is the rise in the price of oil, which can be attributed to 1) recovery from Covid, 2) the wide use of crypto, which is massively energy intensive*, and 3) the russian invasion of Ukraine and the concomitant sanctions against russian oil plus the risk premium.

 

Also contributing is that Ukraine produces 14% of the world's wheat, 18% of its barley, and about 15% of corn.

 

Pres Biden is being attacked---as if inflation hasn't been building up since 45 ran up a near 40% in the US' total debt over 240 years---re fossil fuels, but those attacks are bogus. There are 9000 oil and gas drilling leases in the hands of the oil industry that are not even being used. That isn't Biden's fault. Also, folks like to toss out "Keystone Pipeline", as if that 1) would even be completed by now, and 2) that what it carries would be used in the US. In point of fact, that pipeline was to be built to the Gulf...for export.

 

*a single btc transaction requires more energy than the typical US home uses in 24 days, while btc mining uses more energy than the combined energy used by Amazon, Netflix, Google, and Facebook in their actual business activity.

 

The current inflation, of course, is worldwide, and is sure to impact Thai tourism, but it isn't hyperinflation nor even a fraction of that.

I was recently back in the US for awhile. Everyone I spoke to mentioned how dramatically prices were rising. Long before Ukraine, and long before the spike in oil prices. Nearly everything I bought had gone up 20% in one year. I believe it is more to do with Covid related scalping, using the supply chain, and delivery issues as an excuse.

 

I am not blaming Biden. Though I am disappointed with his performance, I am a supporter. I hated 45, and everything he stood for. Thought he was the 43rd or 44th worst president ever, and I at least partly hold him responsible for the current high (don't use hyper if you do not want to) inflation, due to his insane trade war with China and Huawei. It all started there. 

[Isaan sailor]

12 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I was recently back in the US for awhile. Everyone I spoke to mentioned how dramatically prices were rising. Long before Ukraine, and long before the spike in oil prices. Nearly everything I bought had gone up 20% in one year. I believe it is more to do with Covid related scalping, using the supply chain, and delivery issues as an excuse.

 

I am not blaming Biden. Though I am disappointed with his performance, I am a supporter. I hated 45, and everything he stood for. Thought he was the 43rd or 44th worst president ever, and I at least partly hold him responsible for the current high (don't use hyper if you do not want to) inflation, due to his insane trade war with China and Huawei. It all started there. 

Most Americans would accept the occasional mean tweet—to open borders and runaway 40-year high inflation.  Although living here in Thailand, at least we benefit from an inflation-adjusted Social Security income.

[baboon]

On 3/12/2022 at 9:20 AM, ThailandRyan said:

It is not just the Russian exodus. The OP does not exactly tell the whole truthful story.  

Like about Asian countries not actually letting tourists in or setting the bar for entry so high, no-one can be bothered...

[Saanim]

On 3/12/2022 at 10:21 AM, ThailandRyan said:

Americans, no pensions, really?  Tell me more....

Who remembers ENRON and his Kenny Boy (who was lucky enough to die just the day before appearing at the court)? 

 

And what a luck for the thousands of investors and employees?  

[Saanim]

11 hours ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

Those quality high end spenders Thailand has been searching for ...????????

Many expats here still are living in their bubble that Thailand has no problem but just the tourism problem.  And will collapse when the tourist arrivals will slow down.

 

It's really heart-breaking if the hotels owners (many still have been further investing) will lose their money - or rather the money of the crediting banks. 

 

A good outlook for the remaining residents: no longer overcrowded beaches and massage parlours...  

 

Then, many girls (and their handlers) will return to their roots in remote villages to care for their kids retained at their ageing grandparents... 

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Saanim said:

Who remembers ENRON and his Kenny Boy (who was lucky enough to die just the day before appearing at the court)? 

 

And what a luck for the thousands of investors and employees?  

They may have lost some part of their pensions but many still were able to collect other benefits from the Pension guarantee act, like my father did.  He worked for Enron and still had a retirement when the time came, although not as much as he would have but still more than enough to live on....

 

The Investors on the other hand, well they were shafted.

Edited March 13, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Most Americans would accept the occasional mean tweet—to open borders and runaway 40-year high inflation.  Although living here in Thailand, at least we benefit from an inflation-adjusted Social Security income.

So that's why inflation is raging around the world? Because there's a new administration in Washington?