the 4% concept...

[Sparktrader]

[Sparktrader]

[Sparktrader]

No buy signal on eth yet

[moogradod]

4 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

If people dead prior to 65yo something wrong. 

 

 

You may know a lot about charts but this is definitely not really true. It can come anytime at any age. One of my best friends died with 28 - and he was neither sick nor an addict. He just fell over while at dinner.

 

My wife knows somebody who did the same with 19. I have been diagnosed with highly critical cancer 11 years ago. They took my prostate away. I am still living not showing the slightest signs of any relapse.

 

I know as well somebody who died within a few days because of an infection of his pancreas. He was not sick at all at the time.

 

You have no guarantee that you will survive the next 5 minutes.

[Sparktrader]

Anyone wants a chart tell me the code and i post it for you

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, moogradod said:

You may know a lot about charts but this is definitely not really true. It can come anytime at any age. One of my best friends died with 28 - and he was neither sick nor an addict. He just fell over while at dinner.

 

My wife knows somebody who did the same with 19. I have been diagnosed with highly critical cancer 11 years ago. They took my prostate away. I am still living not showing the slightest signs of any relapse.

 

I know as well somebody who died within a few days because of an infection of his pancreas. He was not sick at all at the time.

 

You have no guarantee that you will survive the next 5 minutes.

Maybe but avg lifespan in 1st world is 83 to 87

 

My nana 95. Drove a car til 92yo.

[moogradod]

2 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Anyone wants a chart tell me the code and i post it for you

The secret is to know the code. Traded at SET in THB.

[Sparktrader]

Property tanking in nz. Expected to happen elsewhere.

 

Debt, inflation, higher rates.

 

I think wait and see. 

[Sparktrader]

[Sparktrader]

Fmg looks strong

Mgt a speculative play

[TimBKK]

4 hours ago, RafPinto said:

The 4% rule doesn't work with an inflation standing at 8%

It does, in theory (in theory because the rule is based on past events and we don’t know what will happen in the future).

 

“The concept of the 4% Rule is attributed to Bill Bengen, a financial adviser in Southern California who created it in the mid-1990s, and has since complained that it has been over-simplified by many of its adherents. He said that the 4% rule was based on a "worst-case" scenario and that 5% would be a more realistic number.

 

The rule was created using historical data on stock and bond returns over the 50-year period from 1926 to 1976, focusing heavily on the severe market downturns of the 1930s and early 1970s.

 

Bengen concluded that, even during untenable markets, no historical case existed in which a 4% annual withdrawal exhausted a retirement portfolio in fewer than 33 years.”

 

[later in the article…]

 

“Actually, the 4% Rule may be a little on the conservative side. According to Michael Kitces, an investment planner, it was developed to take into account the worst economic situations, such as 1929, and has held up well for those who retired during the two most recent financial crises. Kitces points out:

The 2000 retiree is merely "in line" with the 1929 retiree, and doing better than the rest. And the 2008 retiree—even having started with the global financial crisis out of the gate—is already doing far better than any of these historical scenarios! In other words, while the tech crash and especially the global financial crisis were scary, they still haven’t been the kind of scenarios that spell outright doom for the 4% Rule.

This is, of course, not a reason to go beyond it. Safety is a key element for retirees, even if following it may leave those who retire in calmer economic times "with a huge amount of money left over," Kitces notes, adding that "in general, a 4% withdrawal rate is really quite modest relative to the long-term historical average return of almost 8% on a balanced (60/40) portfolio!"

 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-percent-rule.asp

Edited June 4, 2022 by TimBKK
spelling

[Sparktrader]

Fmg

Azs

Jrv

 

All 3 look good

[Sparktrader]

Top 5

Bhp, fmg, jrv, azs, ben

[Sparktrader]

1 hour ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Its rather easy to state where good previous investments have been .

It gets a bit more difficult when you have to make investments for the future .

The price of the S&P 500 had dropped in the last year

Easy picking winners after the event!

 

Imo nickel and iron ore stocks look good.

 

 

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, moogradod said:

Thanks Lacessit. I know this rule although I never thought about your idea of "creative accounting" as a show-stopper as well.

Creative accounting would not be confined to Thailand. One of the most reputable companies in Australia, BHP, was lied to by senior executives over the costs of the HBI project in Port Hedland, which had gone way over budget. Their solution was to keep two sets of accounts, one of which went to the BHP board. Eventually, the entire project was scrapped, and it cost a few careers.

If you only have THB in Thailand, perhaps you may want to consider buying Thai gold. It's not really an investment, more a currency hedge.

[Sparktrader]

Top 9

Bhp, ben, fmg, jrv, azs, gll, hzr, pbh, pen

 

Divs min

Bank

Iron ore

Nickel and copper

Oil

Hydrogen

Gambling

Uranium

[RafPinto]

2 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

I knew an English guy here in Thailand, who, in his 70s got married to a 30ish Thai lass, and even had a kid with her...

Had a kid with her. Probably someone else did the job ????

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, RafPinto said:

Had a kid with her. Probably someone else did the job ????

Blue pills

[RafPinto]

1 hour ago, Sparktrader said:

Maybe but avg lifespan in 1st world is 83 to 87

 

My nana 95. Drove a car til 92yo.

Nana, soi 4 you mean, not 95

[RafPinto]

2 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Blue pills

Make the sausage stand up but doesn't make your sperm productive.

[Sparktrader]

3 minutes ago, RafPinto said:

Nana, soi 4 you mean, not 95

Watched a soi nana video tonight

 

[Sparktrader]

2 minutes ago, RafPinto said:

Make the sausage stand up but doesn't make your sperm productive.

My mate had one at 57

[Sparktrader]

Sausage Stand Up sounds like a rock album

[Mac Mickmanus]

Just now, Sparktrader said:

My mate had one at 57

That caused no end of problems, because he lived at number 53 

[Sparktrader]

10 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

That caused no end of problems, because he lived at number 53 

Long hose

[1FinickyOne]

7 hours ago, RafPinto said:

Retired age 50.

48 for me..

[1FinickyOne]

9 hours ago, Pmbkk said:

 

At 70 what exactly are you saving for ?

can be so many things, including reaching 80.. so many unexpected life changing expenses can arise 

[RafPinto]

12 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

48 for me..

Lazy

[Gottfrid]

On 6/4/2022 at 10:25 AM, bolt said:

Sometimes I go through a spending frenzy, its because I want to spend it before they do

they're really good at blowing it and then asking for more, they seem to think we have limitless funds  

So, don´t we? 

[bolt]

12 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

So, don´t we? 

Yes, I do