Inside a Biden White House adrift

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2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Recent GDP growth numbers are positive as the US emerges from the pandemic (low), the same as for the unemployment rate, which now is slightly above that with Trump pre-covid - the 50 years low was early 2020 - but these numbers appear good now due to a lower labour participation rate than in 2019/20, which is bad.

 

The budget deficit has reduced for the same (covid recovery) reason but the US debt is still rising and at a record high. I don't think that Joe's plans to spend trillions are going to help that!

 

International leadership and recognition? Well the Afghan exit debacle certainly got him recognized. 

What some appear not to know is that it was the Trump administration that negotiated with the Taliban the Aug 31, 2021 departure deadline for all US troops. The intelligence services did not foresee the rapid disintegration of the Afghani govt forces.

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4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Recent GDP growth numbers are positive as the US emerges from the pandemic (low), the same as for the unemployment rate, which now is slightly above that with Trump pre-covid - the 50 years low was early 2020 - but these numbers appear good now due to a lower labour participation rate than in 2019/20, which is bad.

 

The budget deficit has reduced for the same (covid recovery) reason but the US debt is still rising and at a record high. I don't think that Joe's plans to spend trillions are going to help that!

 

International leadership and recognition? Well the Afghan exit debacle certainly got him recognized. 

As for International leadership, can you imagine Donald Trump trying to forge a coalition against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not only did Trump repeatedly trash the EU and NATO, but he actually ignored Ukraine's repeated and desperate please for months that he send them the weapons authorized by Congress in order to fight the Russian backed rebels, and the Russians themselves, in Donbas.

And during the meeting when he finally agreed to send the weapons, he asked as a "favor" from Zelensky, that he investigate the person considered at that time to be his most powerful potential rival.

[earlinclaifornia]

3 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

As the midterm elections loom closely, thank you joe for nothing. At least the American people have gotten a glimpse of what the democratic party is capable of. Looking forward to a GOP house, senate and POTUS once more.

 https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/

 

 

Hopefully it is Trump again and watch the new low in LOSING. All in 

[nauseus]

22 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Like Obama before him, Pres Biden was left an absolute disaster by the miscreant who preceded him. The US was in a Recession, Covid was out of control, the National Debt had been run up a massive $7,000,000,000,000 by 45, and the US was disrespected around the world.

 

Under Biden, the UE rate fell from 6.8% to its current 3.6%, job creation in Biden's first year was the highest ever, the economy began to grow again, and Biden was able to re-unite NATO to help aid Ukraine after russia invaded it. The yearly deficit was also cut by $350,000,000,000 in Biden's first year, and the OMB projects as much as a $1 trillion drop in FY 2022. It's actually quite an impressive start.

 

Of course, most people understand next to nothing about economics, so they think inflation materializes in an instant, and that it is only hitting their prices. They fail to understand that inflation builds up over time, and the printing of $7,000,000,000,000 under 45 is the biggest contributor. Add price inflation from the combo of post-Covid bottlenecks at a time of increased demand, plus the rising price of fossil fuel (econ recovery + russia invasion + crypto 'mining'), and people blame who leads when it happens, not why. Similarly, they fail to realize inflation is now global Thailand just reported its biggest jump in years)

 

One thing about which Americans should rejoice is that Biden is a firm believer in democracy and the principles upon which the US was founded. This is in stark contrast to the whining crybaby 45, who tried to subvert and overthrow the system for which patriots fought for nearly two and a half centuries. As the facts and messages are coming out, it seems 45 was even pleased that terrorists and insurrectionists (45's appointed FBI Director Wray called the rioters on 6 Jan 2021 'terrorists' in a hearing before Congress) were trying to apprehend VP pence and hang him, and 45 was reportedly miffed when the VP was escorted to safety by Secret Service and Capitol Police. Increasingly, however, it seems the DoJ is working on indictments of the officials---ALL of them, no matter their position---directly involved in the failed coup.

You lecture about economics but miss out so much.

 

Under Obama US debt immediately shot up by an extra 1T/year as the US started QE after the GFC. Nearly half of the 7T under Trump was in 2020 and directly to combat covid - nearly the same amount was added in 2021 under Biden. 

 

When people start to blame crypto and Russia invasions for the inflation that started kicking up over a year ago then I have wonder what you're really trying to say? Oh there it is, in the last paragraph. 

[EVENKEEL]

22 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What some appear not to know is that it was the Trump administration that negotiated with the Taliban the Aug 31, 2021 departure deadline for all US troops. The intelligence services did not foresee the rapid disintegration of the Afghani govt forces.

When biden swore the oath to become POTUS he was in charge. I understand biden fans wanting to worm their way out of it, the whole Afghan debacle. But, ultimately they don't have a leg to stand on. Neither does joe on this issue. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/14/politics/biden-overrules-advisers-afghanistan-withdrawal/index.html

 

https://nypost.com/2021/09/15/biden-ignored-austin-and-blinken-on-afghanistan-withdrawal-woodward-book/

[nauseus]

21 minutes ago, placeholder said:

As for International leadership, can you imagine Donald Trump trying to forge a coalition against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not only did Trump repeatedly trash the EU and NATO, but he actually ignored Ukraine's repeated and desperate please for months that he send them the weapons authorized by Congress in order to fight the Russian backed rebels, and the Russians themselves, in Donbas.

And during the meeting when he finally agreed to send the weapons, he asked as a "favor" from Zelensky, that he investigate the person considered at that time to be his most powerful potential rival.

Maybe his leadership qualities were hidden? After all, Trump didn't start any wars and there were no invasions on his watch. NATO was ignored by Biden when the US did the moonlight flit out of Afghanistan and now, after Putin has invaded Ukraine, members suddenly see the value of investing the money in NATO that Trump was so miffed about them no doing for so long, especially the rich Germans! Trump sent weapons to the Ukraine way before Russia massed on the borders.

[EVENKEEL]

27 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Hopefully it is Trump again and watch the new low in LOSING. All in 

nah, Trump won't be back to run again. And neither will the dems

[candide]

11 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Recent GDP growth numbers are positive as the US emerges from the pandemic (low), the same as for the unemployment rate, which now is slightly above that with Trump pre-covid - the 50 years low was early 2020 - but these numbers appear good now due to a lower labour participation rate than in 2019/20, which is bad.

 

The budget deficit has reduced for the same (covid recovery) reason but the US debt is still rising and at a record high. I don't think that Joe's plans to spend trillions are going to help that!

 

International leadership and recognition? Well the Afghan exit debacle certainly got him recognized. 

That's why I prefer numbers rather than %. And if we look at raw numbers, your comments are irrelevant: 

- GDP level (not only growth %) is higher than pre-covid (see chart)

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

- job number (not only %) is lower than pre-covid (see my previous post)

 

Actually, the factors you mention allow to consider the U.S. performance in a better way:

- despite the negative impact of the Covid crisis, the pre-Covid level of GDP has been surpassed,

- despite a lower labour participation rate (means: less people than before Covid are on the job market), the number of jobs is higher than pre-Covid.

 

As about the deficit reduction, high growth and high employment generate more tax. It will be a long way before we see a balanced U.S. budget (probably never). However, if we compare with Trump's tenure pre-Covid, Trump stupidly increased debts during a period of regular growth and prosperity, while Biden (and Obama before) used debt to recover from a crisis.

[candide]

26 minutes ago, nauseus said:

You lecture about economics but miss out so much.

 

Under Obama US debt immediately shot up by an extra 1T/year as the US started QE after the GFC. Nearly half of the 7T under Trump was in 2020 and directly to combat covid - nearly the same amount was added in 2021 under Biden. 

 

When people start to blame crypto and Russia invasions for the inflation that started kicking up over a year ago then I have wonder what you're really trying to say? Oh there it is, in the last paragraph. 

I agree with you that numbers during the Covid crisis are not comparable. So let's take only the pre-Covid numbers for Trump.

- as you mentioned, Obama'debt increase at the beginning of his first tenure were over 1T/year. But this has been done in order to fight a very acute economic crisis. It was countercyclical.

- the yearly level of debt increase by Trump pre-Covid was also above 1T, thanks to tax cuts for the rich and companies (which massively bought back their own shares), during a time of regular growth and prosperity. That was stupidly procyclical. There was no need to increase debts.

[earlinclaifornia]

30 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

nah, Trump won't be back to run again. And neither will the dems

Ha ha ha So at least this time we both agree Trumps will surely lose. You however believe no Democrat could win in 2024? Lets wait until then...

[nauseus]

26 minutes ago, candide said:

That's why I prefer numbers rather than %. And if we look at raw numbers, your comments are irrelevant: 

- GDP level (not only growth %) is higher than pre-covid (see chart)

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

- job number (not only %) is lower than pre-covid (see my previous post)

 

Actually, the factors you mention allow to consider the U.S. performance in a better way:

- despite the negative impact of the Covid crisis, the pre-Covid level of GDP has been surpassed,

- despite a lower labour participation rate (means: less people than before Covid are on the job market), the number of jobs is higher than pre-Covid.

 

As about the deficit reduction, high growth and high employment generate more tax. It will be a long way before we see a balanced U.S. budget (probably never). However, if we compare with Trump's tenure pre-Covid, Trump stupidly increased debts during a period of regular growth and prosperity, while Biden (and Obama before) used debt to recover from a crisis.

Sorry, I can't post to suit everyone's personal preferences and we are not even 1/2 way through 2022. GDP 'levels' will rise with increases in both population and free money but the key US economic and financial indicators by year end are likely to be very worrying.

 

Not much point in having all those jobs around if people don't want to work - many of those people just create yet another drain on the economy.

 

 

[nauseus]

8 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Ha ha ha So at least this time we both agree Trumps will surely lose. You however believe no Democrat could win in 2024? Lets wait until then...

If he doesn't run he can't lose. Innit?

[earlinclaifornia]

43 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Maybe his leadership qualities were hidden? After all, Trump didn't start any wars and there were no invasions on his watch. NATO was ignored by Biden when the US did the moonlight flit out of Afghanistan and now, after Putin has invaded Ukraine, members suddenly see the value of investing the money in NATO that Trump was so miffed about them no doing for so long, especially the rich Germans! Trump sent weapons to the Ukraine way before Russia massed on the borders.

After getting caught with his pro quid attempting to erase Biden's eventual WIN. All he did was sign off on approved spending

[earlinclaifornia]

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

If he doesn't run he can't lose. Innit?

Brilliant! Send money to his re-election 

Edited June 7, 2022 by earlinclaifornia

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12 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Not much point in having all those jobs around if people don't want to work - many of those people just create yet another drain on the economy.

Do you mean that because jobs aren't being taken, that means people don't want to work? You ever hear of the law of supply and demand. It doesn't just work for capitalists. If there's a shortage of workers, why would they choose to take less desirable jobs?

[placeholder]

57 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

When biden swore the oath to become POTUS he was in charge. I understand biden fans wanting to worm their way out of it, the whole Afghan debacle. But, ultimately they don't have a leg to stand on. Neither does joe on this issue. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/14/politics/biden-overrules-advisers-afghanistan-withdrawal/index.html

 

https://nypost.com/2021/09/15/biden-ignored-austin-and-blinken-on-afghanistan-withdrawal-woodward-book/

 

56 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Maybe his leadership qualities were hidden? After all, Trump didn't start any wars and there were no invasions on his watch. NATO was ignored by Biden when the US did the moonlight flit out of Afghanistan and now, after Putin has invaded Ukraine, members suddenly see the value of investing the money in NATO that Trump was so miffed about them no doing for so long, especially the rich Germans! Trump sent weapons to the Ukraine way before Russia massed on the borders.

What I noticed in the articles linked to by evenkeel that there is no mention of the fact that the Trump administration signed an agreement for all US troops to be out of Afghanistan by Aug 31. The Taliban was holding back until Aug 31. It doesn't seem reasonable to believe that would have been the case starting Sep 1.

 

Trump officials back away from 2020 Taliban peace deal after withdrawal chaos

A number of former senior Trump officials have sought to distance themselves from the Taliban peace deal that was signed in February 2020, with chaos erupting after the militants took control of Afghanistan this week.

Why it matters: The agreement has come under new scrutiny for laying the groundwork for the U.S. military's withdrawal from Afghanistan, which coincided with a sweeping Taliban offensive that ended in the fall of Kabul on Sunday.

The big picture: The Trump administration agreed to withdraw from the country by May 1, 2021, if the Taliban negotiated a peace agreement with the Afghan government and promised to prevent terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State from gaining a foothold.

https://www.axios.com/2021/08/20/trump-taliban-agreement-doha-biden

[nauseus]

22 minutes ago, candide said:

I agree with you that numbers during the Covid crisis are not comparable. So let's take only the pre-Covid numbers for Trump.

- as you mentioned, Obama'debt increase at the beginning of his first tenure were over 1T/year. But this has been done in order to fight a very acute economic crisis. It was countercyclical.

- the yearly level of debt increase by Trump pre-Covid was also above 1T, thanks to tax cuts for the rich and companies (which massively bought back their own shares), during a time of regular growth and prosperity. That was stupidly procyclical. There was no need to increase debts.

Your last para - disagree -  the average yearly level of debt increase by Trump pre-Covid was about 1T due to corporate tax cuts, trade disputes, military spending (not wars) and Brexit. Any growth from 2008 has been encouraged and enhanced by Fed QE policy, which was notably briefly tightened up in 2017/8, after Trump got in, but reversed by late 2018, as the stock market had started to fall badly. 

[nauseus]

16 minutes ago, placeholder said:

 

Do you mean that because jobs aren't being taken, that means people don't want to work? You ever hear of the law of supply and demand. It doesn't just work for capitalists. If there's a shortage of workers, why would they choose to take less desirable jobs?

No shortage. Just not registered.

[candide]

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Sorry, I can't post to suit everyone's personal preferences and we are not even 1/2 way through 2022. GDP 'levels' will rise with increases in both population and free money but the key US economic and financial indicators by year end are likely to be very worrying.

 

Not much point in having all those jobs around if people don't want to work - many of those people just create yet another drain on the economy.

 

 

It's not about individual preferences, It's about your previous arguments not being valid:

- if GDP level in value is above pre-Covid level, It's not due to the fact that growth rates are obviously high after a crisis

- if the number of jobs is higher than pre-covid, It's not because the occupation rate is lower than pre-Covid.

 

However, you are right that population increase should be factored in, so GDP per capita would be a better indicator, but the GDP per capita in 2021 is also higher than in 2019.

https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/usa

 

As for predictions, you may be right. it is quite possible that interest rates increases may slow down growth. More worrying, according to the IMF and the World Bank  the war in Ukraine may possibly cause a global economic crisis which will affect the U.S. among others.

However, on comparable terms, the performance is there and better than Trump for GDP and employment.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

No shortage. Just not registered.

What does that mean? Registered with whom?

[Lacessit]

On 6/6/2022 at 2:06 PM, howlee101 said:

And don't forget the empty shelves where baby formula once was stocked. 

I see, one of the biggest producers of baby formula in America has a lethal contamination issue due to a fault in the manufacturing process, and Biden is to blame for that. I suppose he's to blame for Uvalde too.

Do you have any idea how ridiculous your post is?

[candide]

21 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What does that mean? Registered with whom?

Not registered as job seekers. It currently happens in several western countries post-Covid. Different explanations have been evoked: the role of social subsidies, lower morale, and also that people realised during Covid they had a <deleted> job pre-Covid.

[howlee101]

20 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I see, one of the biggest producers of baby formula in America has a lethal contamination issue due to a fault in the manufacturing process, and Biden is to blame for that. I suppose he's to blame for Uvalde too.

Do you have any idea how ridiculous your post is?

As I stated on another post, it was the inaction of his administration to address the situation. You have any idea how ridiculous trying to defend Biden is?

[candide]

56 minutes ago, placeholder said:

 

What I noticed in the articles linked to by evenkeel that there is no mention of the fact that the Trump administration signed an agreement for all US troops to be out of Afghanistan by Aug 31. The Taliban was holding back until Aug 31. It doesn't seem reasonable to believe that would have been the case starting Sep 1.

 

Trump officials back away from 2020 Taliban peace deal after withdrawal chaos

A number of former senior Trump officials have sought to distance themselves from the Taliban peace deal that was signed in February 2020, with chaos erupting after the militants took control of Afghanistan this week.

Why it matters: The agreement has come under new scrutiny for laying the groundwork for the U.S. military's withdrawal from Afghanistan, which coincided with a sweeping Taliban offensive that ended in the fall of Kabul on Sunday.

The big picture: The Trump administration agreed to withdraw from the country by May 1, 2021, if the Taliban negotiated a peace agreement with the Afghan government and promised to prevent terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State from gaining a foothold.

https://www.axios.com/2021/08/20/trump-taliban-agreement-doha-biden

Right. The Trump administration negotiated directly with the Taliban, without involving the official government. By doing so, it was de facto designating the Taliban as the winner. It's no wonder the official administration and army were demotivated and quickly collapsed. 

[nauseus]

9 minutes ago, candide said:

It's not about individual preferences, It's about your previous arguments not being valid:

- if GDP level in value is above pre-Covid level, It's not due to the fact that growth rates are obviously high after a crisis

- if the number of jobs is higher than pre-covid, It's not because the occupation rate is lower than pre-Covid.

 

However, you are right that population increase should be factored in, so GDP per capita would be a better indicator, but the GDP per capita in 2021 is also higher than in 2019.

https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/usa

 

As for predictions, you may be right. it is quite possible that interest rates increases may slow down growth. More worrying, according to the IMF and the World Bank  the war in Ukraine may possibly cause a global economic crisis which will affect the U.S. among others.

However, on comparable terms, the performance is there and better than Trump for GDP and employment.

- if GDP level in value is above pre-Covid level, It's not due to the fact that growth rates are obviously high after a crisis Why not? That is the main reason. It's called a recovery.

 

- if the number of jobs is higher than pre-covid, It's not because the occupation rate is lower than pre-Covid

The number is still shy of pre covid by about a million:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/03/economy/may-jobs-report-final/index.html#:~:text=US employers added 390%2C000 jobs in May%2C representing a robust,2020%2C before the pandemic hit.

 

Inflation, attempts to raise rates to combat same, will cause a lot more harm than just denting growth and the origins of this happened way before the war started.   

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, howlee101 said:

As I stated on another post, it was the inaction of his administration to address the situation. You have any idea how ridiculous trying to defend Biden is?

Because you stated that in another post, it must be true? Actually, the problem the supply of infant formula is that 4 companies control virtually the entire supply available in America. And that relates to anti-trust issues in general. America needs stronger enforcement of antitrust laws.

New Study from AAI Explores Troubling Falloff in Federal Antitrust Enforcement in Face of Declining Competition

https://www.antitrustinstitute.org/new-study-from-aai-explores-troubling-falloff-in-federal-antitrust-enforcement-in-face-of-declining-competition/

 

[EVENKEEL]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

I see, one of the biggest producers of baby formula in America has a lethal contamination issue due to a fault in the manufacturing process, and Biden is to blame for that. I suppose he's to blame for Uvalde too.

Do you have any idea how ridiculous your post is?

Biden wasn't aware of closure till months later. So either he's fibbing or he's not running a tight ship. Not sure which is worse.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/01/formula-airlift-from-uk-australia-days-away-as-shortage-worsens/

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, howlee101 said:

As I stated on another post, it was the inaction of his administration to address the situation. You have any idea how ridiculous trying to defend Biden is?

It's a lot less difficult to defend Biden, he is a decent man. Trump is an entirely different matter.

As you appear to have 20:20 hindsight on all US problems, I'll leave it at that.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, candide said:

Not registered as job seekers. It currently happens in several western countries post-Covid. Different explanations have been evoked: the role of social subsidies, lower morale, and also that people realised during Covid they had a <deleted> job pre-Covid.

But this article was about the USA and there is no such system there.

[candide]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

- if GDP level in value is above pre-Covid level, It's not due to the fact that growth rates are obviously high after a crisis Why not? That is the main reason. It's called a recovery.

 

- if the number of jobs is higher than pre-covid, It's not because the occupation rate is lower than pre-Covid

The number is still shy of pre covid by about a million:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/03/economy/may-jobs-report-final/index.html#:~:text=US employers added 390%2C000 jobs in May%2C representing a robust,2020%2C before the pandemic hit.

 

Inflation, attempts to raise rates to combat same, will cause a lot more harm than just denting growth and the origins of this happened way before the war started.   

 

1. It's a recovery but it's not due to a comparison with a lower than usual year. That was my point., i.e. comparing 2021 with 2020 and showing a high growth rate is misleading because 2020 was exceptionally low. Comparing with 2019 is relevant because it was a normal year.

2. It seems you are right about unemployment. I have been mislead by numbers about February 2020 which have been provided by another poster.