Will Pot shops survive selling high end buds?

[EVENKEEL]

I went inside a new shop on Soi Buakhao selling smoke. Kind of interesting as a foreigner handling large bags of buds. The prices are crazy high 4-800thb/gr. As more and more OK pot becomes available, I'm talking brick and the rest of the thai produce which are available for 5-20 thb/gram.

 

After the novelty wears off and the market becomes saturated with pot for cheap how will these other places survive?

 

[bobbin]

There is a big difference between the two qualities.. They both "work" but the experience is vastly different.

 

At current prices they are making windfall profits up and down the chain. This will not last long as prices will (have to) drop by 50% by years end.. a clear 6 month period of production without a "risk premium"

 

Then a period of attrition in the retail market.

[wombat]

My crystal ball says that when the seeds planted on the 9th June mature and weed that not only has higher THC than what is commercially available now but also the taste that comes with TLC and not the nothing dirt taste of commercially grown there will be an attrition amongst the high end sellers as they try to unload old stock that hasn't sold.

 

 

[MrJ2U]

I actually think it'll be available everywhere like corn or Chang.

 

I'm surprised If haven't seen it sold more at outdoor markets in villages.

 

There's plants sprouting everywhere in our village. 

[bamnutsak]

Until the Canabis Control Act is gazetted, and given the current political climate that could be months or even a year or longer, predictions on the retail landscape are challenging. And once that act is gazetted it will take a year or two for all the government organizations empowered by it to issue regulations.

 

Maybe there will be brick/mortar shops in tourist areas selling to short-time visitors. Like the Cannabis Sandbox concepts thrown around by some government officials?

 

For Thais and resident aliens I think we'll continue to use on-line ordering. Right now I'd guess that 80% of sales, by volume/revenue are from on-line. Why do I need to go to a shop? I can watch bud porn at home.

 

Regarding prices, the market is quite young and not really subject to the usual rules given the pent-up demand, and supply (lack of? or too much).

 

In my very limited experience, stocks sell out quite quickly, hours in some cases, at current prices.

 

But there does seem to be too much dirt weed, and wholesesale prices on that have dropped by ~ 25% since 9 June. That "weed" will soon be 1,000 baht/Kg, in a BOGO scheme. Or it will be used as a building supply?

[BritManToo]

5 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

Until the Canabis Control Act is gazetted, and given the current political climate that could be months or even a year or longer, predictions on the retail landscape are challenging. And once that act is gazetted it will take a year or two for all the government organizations empowered by it to issue regulations.

Assume the weed shops have information we don't.

Just like the growers had information we didn't.

 

They've all been investing a lot of money ..... doesn't seem likely they're all stupid.

[EVENKEEL]

7 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Assume the weed shops have information we don't.

Just like the growers had information we didn't.

 

They've all been investing a lot of money ..... doesn't seem likely they're all stupid.

This shop in Pattaya had a foreigner involved, or at least he was handling large bags of bud at the counter. Besides the shop set up cost and rent the money for the BIB must be decent to let a foreigner get involved.

[Ralf001]

44 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

This shop in Pattaya had a foreigner involved, or at least he was handling large bags of bud at the counter. Besides the shop set up cost and rent the money for the BIB must be decent to let a foreigner get involved.

Are foreigners not allowed to be involved in a retail bussiness ?

[EVENKEEL]

13 minutes ago, Ralf001 said:

Are foreigners not allowed to be involved in a retail bussiness ?

I don't really know, just seems like the Thai guys might not like the idea of a foreigner involved in such a niche market.

[JonnyF]

I think it will end up like alcohol. There will be shops selling cheap weed just like you can buy Lao Khao. For people who want something a bit more refined there will be shops selling high quality stuff for people who are prepared to pay, same as you can get decent Whisky if you want to stump up the cash.

 

For me, it's worth buying the decent stuff. I paid about 1600 for 3.5 grammes a couple of weeks ago and I still have more than half left (I'm not a heavy/daily smoker). So let's say 300 Baht a week. For that price, it's not really worth me buying low grade stuff. Sure I will try some out of curiosity, but if it's noticably lower quality then I think it's worth it to buy the decent stuff (same as I don't drink Lao Khao to save a few Baht).

[redwood1]

The problem with high weed prices is ANYONE can grow fairly ok weed...
You don't need a lab, or chemicals.. Not much effort or special knowledge needed....

 

Just look at weed prices in the USA....Falling falling falling lower every year.....

 

Unless some new weed control laws are enacted the price is only headed one way....Down down down.....Except for maybe a small super premium market.....

Hey people still buy Mercedes when they could save a bundle by buying a Toyota.....  

[curtklay]

You can't fairly compare a Mercedes to a Toyota. And you can't compare top shelf flowers to brickweed. The difference in quality demands a difference in cost that many of us are willing to pay.

[earlinclaifornia]

One shop I visited in CM told me that prices for the product they are waiting for to mature will be high quality at much lower costs. Buying quantity in the GT area, it is bricked for 50 a gram. On line top grade sativa can be had for 200 g currently. Price wars may begin in time.

[Dogmatix]

7 hours ago, Ralf001 said:

Are foreigners not allowed to be involved in a retail bussiness ?

Foreigners not allowed to work in retail under the Royal Decree of professions reserved for Thais, in the sense of being a retail sales assistant, but they are allowed to be involved in a retail business as a manager, training officer, advisor etc.  Law is a reserved profession too but how many farang lawyers are there.  They all have WPs saying admin manager, advisor, training manager etc.

[Mr Meeseeks]

6 hours ago, redwood1 said:

The problem with high weed prices is ANYONE can grow fairly ok weed...
You don't need a lab, or chemicals.. Not much effort or special knowledge needed....

It is not easy to grow good weed and there's a lot of effort involved.

[chrischronic]

Won't last long because there are many growers from Buriram already selling online through Facebook and Instagram. I have seen and ordered as low as 1,900 for 10gs of Gorilla Glue, Blue dream, Etc. The only thing is ya gotta wait for delivery. 

[kiteman9]

8 hours ago, redwood1 said:

ANYONE can grow fairly ok weed...
You don't need a lab, or chemicals.. Not much effort or special knowledge needed....

 

[redwood1]

1 hour ago, kiteman9 said:

 

I only said its not all that hard to grow weed of modest quality...And yes I agree 100% for a top quality grow, it takes a whole lot of skill...

 

I would say a very large number of Thais have a family plot of land some where.....And they have been growing rice and other food since forever...

 

Even if only  a small percentage of farmers  decide to grow weed the supply side will explode....Sure there will be failures, sure plenty will make a mess of things till they learn the proper way to grow outdoors....

But it will not matter because plenty will get it right with the first grow....

 

The point here is the supply of modest to midrange quality of weed is going to be absolutely enormous with in 1 to 2 years.....After the farmers get more education on how to grow weed...

 

 

[unblocktheplanet]

Thailand just got to be fun again!

[stoner]

the price for top quality will remain high for years to come.

 

everything else will just fade away into an ocean of average smoke.

[connda]

As the supply increases exponentially, the prices will drop in turn.

[bamnutsak]

45 minutes ago, connda said:

As the supply increases exponentially, the prices will drop in turn.

Why will supplies increase exponentially? And do you even understand what "exponential" means?

 

There is a cost of production, and nearly all quality cannabis will have to be grown indoors which has some signifcant costs. Add to that the cutting, trimming and curing processes take a lot of manpower.

 

Regarding the topic, there will be some physical shops, especially in tourist areas, and for the brands which rise to the top, flagship stores. But the bulk of sales and distribution will be done online.

 

Now if the government bans online sales and delivery of cannabis, as they did 7 Dec 2020 for alcohol (I think this is still in force?) then yes, there will be many shops, selling to a variety of clients, with several grades of stock and price points.

 

 

[Chad91]

I got some blue dream of a guy on Facebook for 200 Baht a gram and it's good quality just like you would get off a street dealer in the UK.

 

I think these shops will only survive if the law changes to suit them and they are the only people legally allowed to sell, If not they will have to lower the prices because people will sell good quality personal grows for alot cheaper.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Chad91

[BritManToo]

9 minutes ago, Chad91 said:

I got some blue dream of a guy on Facebook for 200 Baht a gram and it's good quality just like you would get off a street dealer in the UK.

I'm waiting for 100 Blue Dream seeds to arrive, 400bht from facebook.

[BritManToo]

18 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

There is a cost of production, and nearly all quality cannabis will have to be grown indoors which has some signifcant costs. Add to that the cutting, trimming and curing processes take a lot of manpower.

Not that significant, a one off cost of 8,000bht allows me to grow around 50oz/year indoors. The LED lights (largest expense of 4,500bht) have already lasted 2 years with no signs of failing.

Edited July 22, 2022 by BritManToo

[stoner]

8 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Not that significant, a one off cost of 8,000bht allows me to grow around 50oz/year indoors. The LED lights (largest expense of 4,500bht) have already lasted 2 years with no signs of failing.

after lights you are saying its only 3500 baht for 50oz ? hahaha good one. 

 

ac cost alone for a year would be way way over that. without ac running 24/7 in thailand your weed will be sub par at best. 

[bamnutsak]

25 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Not that significant

In my defense I did say...

 

43 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

nearly all quality cannabis