To sell or not to sell, that is the question for Thai Expats

[Photoguy21]

Go back to the mid 80's and you got 25 baht to the USD

[Noris]

The OP looses all credibility with a statement like "A mogul who does not pay his taxes"

 

The ex President as far as I know never took a $ in wages all the time in office. Second I would not profess to know much about his taxes, but you can be assured that he has paid taxes, or he would not have been in Office as with Russian collusion BS that they drummed up,

 

Tesco no Tax or little Apple no taxes Amazon the list is endless.

[Kerryd]

My 1st trip here (Feb 1993) I think the exchange rate was about 20/1 (Baht to Canadian). I remember buying 5 t-shirts for 100 baht and laughing at the bargain prices.

In 1997, much of SE Asia was hit by the "Asian Flu" banking crisis brought on when Rakesh Saxena, an Indian national working for the Bangkok Bank of Commerce, swindled the bank out of billions of baht before fleeing the country (to Canada of course, where he lived in luxury for over 10 years, committing even more crimes, until finally being extradited back to Thailand).

His swindles cause the collapse of the Bank of Commerce, which lead to massive losses at other banks (who buy/sell/lend each other money all the time).

That cause the Thai baht to take a dump of course and led to unrealistically high exchange rates for awhile.
By the early 2000's, things had settled down and, unfortunately, Thai banks started dropping their interest rates. A lot.

Remember that after the Tsunami in Dec 2004, the World Bank offered to loan Thailand money and Thaksin, despite being a crook himself, basically told them to shove it. (Because the money came with "strings attached". Conditions that the World Bank expected Thailand to meet in order to get the money. However, Thailand had mostly recovered from the banking crisis a few years earlier and, aside from the downswing after the tsunami, tourism numbers had been on a stead climb.)
They really didn't need to borrow money from anyone.

Around 2008-2010, I was getting 32/33 baht to the dollar and the US was around 35-37. That was when oil prices were going through the roof.
It was quite annoying at one point when the Canadian dollar was worth almost $1.10 US, but the US dollar was getting 3 baht more on the exchange rate in Thailand (because the Thai gov't had pegged the exchange rate to the US dollar instead of letting it float naturally).

(And no, it wasn't worth buying American $$ and then converting to Thai baht as the loss on the exchange fees would negate any gains on the rate differences. I had calculated at the time that I'd have to be doing over $100,000 in transactions to even make a small profit, which could be wiped out in a moment if the rates changed before you could get a transaction completed.)

Then of course, the Liberals (in Canada) got into power again and our dollar took another massive dump. Historically, going back to just after the end of WW2, every time a Liberal gov't is in power, the Canadian dollar loses value.
Normally, when a Conservative gov't is in office, the dollar gains strength, or at least doesn't take a massive drop.

After Trudeau gained power, our exchange rate went down to around 23/1. Not far off from where it was back in 1993.
It's up to about 28/1 now, but more from the Thai baht losing strength than the Canadian dollar gaining strength.

Transferring money is a <deleted> shoot because you transfer a wad today and next week kick your self because you could have gained a couple thousand baht if you'd just waited a bit longer.

Or, you wait a bit longer and realize that you should have done it a week ago because doing it now means you'll lose a couple thousand.

I'm sure a lot of people thought the baht would take a massive drop when the stopped letting tourists into the country. How the baht didn't drop dramatically I can only guess. Most likely the gov't just set the exchange rate ("pegged it") to the US dollar to prevent a massive drop in value.

Just have to hope some other con artist businessman swindles another bank out of billions and causes another Asian Flu. Just so long as it doesn't happen to "my" bank !

 

[jacko45k]

5 hours ago, BonMot said:

I REALLY wish the older British expats would let this go as it's now beyond annoying.

 

I see you all sitting in Pattaya on beach road wearing b50 nylon running shorts, a singha singlet and b40 flip flops. As the group of three old geezers admire the trash walking up and down the footpath one says to the other...yeah, I remember when she'd cost me a fiver. The others would sigh and nod approvingly. Remember when I got 75 to the quid... The others would sigh. Yup, thems the days mates...

 

STOP for the love of God. It was 20 years ago.

Envy personified!

[hotchilli]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

In fact, in the late 1990s, one pound actually reached THB92 for a brief period. Oh happy days.

Indeed.

[arithai12]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Trying to understand why is a tricky business for sure.

As the author so clearly demonstrates.

[allanos]

To sell or not to sell is not really the question at all. It is next to impossible to time the market, or to guess what exchange rates will be in the future.

Better to dollar cost average going in, taking whatever is on offer.

 

The recent 0.75bp increase in the FedFunds rate should have strengthened the DXY, to the detriment of gold (XAU) and Bitcoin. Yet both have gained quite well over the past few days. My point being that neither of these assets performed as one would have conventionally expected. Short-sellers of both will have lost money.

Edited July 29, 2022 by onthedarkside
news trolling comments removed

[Doctor Tom]

If the exchange rate is that worrying for an individual and impacts their life so negatively, then they should not be here, not be an expat. It really is as simple as that. 

[onthedarkside]

Various news trolling comments and posts have been removed. Please note the following forum rule:

 

"17. The ASEAN NOW news team gathers and disseminates news bulletins from Thai and international sources, and republishes them in the news forums for our members' information and enjoyment. Our news team works hard to bring quality content to the news forums and should be respected for their efforts. Comments such as "slow news day" or "clickbait headline" are disrespectful and unwelcome."

 

https://aseannow.com/terms/

 

[Ganoga]

The high exchange rates msny remrmber started with the Asian financial crisis in 1997. 

 

 

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=USD&C2=THB&MA=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1957&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=28&MM2=07&YYYY2=2022&btnOK=Go!

[Lemsta69]

2 hours ago, Noris said:

The OP looses all credibility with a statement like "A mogul who does not pay his taxes"

 

The ex President as far as I know never took a $ in wages all the time in office. Second I would not profess to know much about his taxes, but you can be assured that he has paid taxes, or he would not have been in Office as with Russian collusion BS that they drummed up,

 

Tesco no Tax or little Apple no taxes Amazon the list is endless.

hard to lose something your never had in the first place ????

[Gknrd]

I don't think anyone realizes how serious a position Thailand is in. And it will continually get worse now. Fluctuations in the Baht will be the norm for a while. They have basically allied with China and the Thai government have made some very bad choices. China is in a state of collapse , although slow it is very serious. It cannot feed it's self, It imports energy to run it's plants.  It has a leader that is driving it into a very serious death for the country...  As much as people like to bad mouth the US it will come out the huge winner. It has the resources to meet all of it's demands.  Already Europe is aligning and money is flowing into the US at staggering rates.. 

There is absolutely no way Thailand will survive this being on the line.  Trying to play both sides will be it's ruin.

Japan will be the big winner in Asia for many many years to come.

 

It won't affect the old expats like me for the next few years. But, Thailand has signed it's own death warrant. 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Gknrd

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

I don't think anyone realizes how serious a position Thailand is in. And it will continually get worse now. Fluctuations in the Baht will be the norm for a while. They have basically allied with China and the Thai government have made some very bad choices. China is in a state of collapse , although slow it is very serious. It cannot feed it's self, It imports energy to run it's plants.  It has a leader that is driving it into a very serious death for the country...  As much as people like to bad mouth the US it will come out the huge winner. It has the resources to meet all of it's demands.  Already Europe is aligning and money is flowing into the US at staggering rates.. 

There is absolutely no way Thailand will survive this being on the line.  Trying to play both sides will be it's ruin.

Japan will be the big winner in Asia for many many years to come.

 

It won't affect the old expats like me for the next few years. But, Thailand has signed it's own death warrant. 

China might just Wag the dog with Taiwan.  Another war on the other end of the continent will make things even more of a mess.  The little rocket man in N. Korea wants to lob nukes into the South as well...fun times we live in.

Edited July 29, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[Gknrd]

19 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

China might just Wag the dog with Taiwan.  Another war on the other end of the continent will make things even more of a mess.  The little rocket man in N. Korea wants to lob nukes into the South as well...fun times we live in.

Just my opinion , but I doubt China will invade now. It has seen what will happen. Sanctions in China would starve half the population. And shut down manufacturing.  But, Xi is a one man show. China is basically done for.  Agree who knows what N. Korea will do. Another one man show.. Asia is in for a world of hurt in the next 5-10 years. 

Japan has been dealing with the aging population for many years now, and it has adapted.. China?  way to later for them. And for most countries around the world. The US is in a good position, France, and a few others.

 

I also think Germany is in for a very rough time of it. 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Gknrd

[BonMot]

9 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

The interest rate on your savings goes up,

Surely you jest?

 

Actually, it has gone up and nearly 200%!

 

From .25 to .75%

[BonMot]

3 hours ago, Doctor Tom said:

If the exchange rate is that worrying for an individual and impacts their life so negatively, then they should not be here, not be an expat. It really is as simple as that. 

This is a very insipid comment.

 

The Thai baht has lost ten percent since a few years back when I changed some baht to USD. I've held it in cash. My life plans now see me never moving permanently back to US so I'm thinking about cashing it back the other way. I'll gain nearly 1000usd or about 30k USD.

 

You either have a lot of money not to care or none at all.

[Lucky Bones]

11 minutes ago, BonMot said:

Surely you jest?

 

Actually, it has gone up and nearly 200%!

 

From .25 to .75%

Good news indeed.

"Blessed are the cheesemakers"

[BonMot]

9 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:

The Dollar is too strong.

It's not that.

 

The world is losing faith in the other currencies and running to the dollar. The story is 100 years old.

 

Supply and demand.

 

Many international loans are in USD as well.

 

For what it's worth I'm waiting for the whole thing to go tits up and have been since 2009.

[CH1961]

4 hours ago, Gknrd said:

Thai government have made some very bad choices. China is in a state of collapse

Oh, a serious expert here on TVF. 

Any financial advice? 

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, CH1961 said:

Oh, a serious expert here on TVF. 

Any financial advice? 

What's your view since you obviously support China.

[William C F Pierce]

11 hours ago, Advocate said:

The GBP is worth 25% of its 1940 value against the USD. It is still falling.

If the the pound was worth $10 in 1865 what was the Baht worth. Could have been a Trillionaire back then.

[Doctor Tom]

2 hours ago, BonMot said:

You either have a lot of money not to care or none at all.

Why insipid, it's a fact of life here. I have enough money to live comfortably, but as any sensible person would when considering moving countries, I factored in several risks, including a 25% drop in the value of the Pound Sterling over time, ( not far wrong as it turned out) where most of my funds originate. Anyone who doesn't carry out a reasonably comprehensive personal risk analysis may well get caught out by any number of unwelcome and unplanned  happenings, if not prepared,  health for example, a bad marriage or relationship, visa issues etc.  It seems that too many naïve people just jump onto an aircraft and fly here to live without any real thought or planning.  This and other forums are full of tails of people that have done this.   Exchange  rate changes just seem to one more thing they didn't plan for. 

[placeholder]

13 hours ago, Advocate said:

The GBP is worth 25% of its 1940 value against the USD. It is still falling.

But what does that tell us about the strength of the British economy? Compared to 1940, does the average UK citizen now earn only 25% as much as Americans? Do they own only 1/4 of what Americans own? People, (not necessarily Advocate) sometimes seem to think that currency is like stock shares. It's not and by themselves, long term exchange rates tell little about the strength of the respective economies.

[jacko45k]

15 hours ago, Gknrd said:

Just my opinion , but I doubt China will invade now. It has seen what will happen. Sanctions in China would starve half the population. And shut down manufacturing.

Has it been particularly successful with Russia....they seem to have no problem cutting gas supplies and attacking grain sources and we are well into severe sanctions against them?

[Gknrd]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

Has it been particularly successful with Russia....they seem to have no problem cutting gas supplies and attacking grain sources and we are well into severe sanctions against them?

Huge difference, The Russian oil is fixing to be in severe trouble IMO. There main supply in in perma. frost. If they have to cut more supplies they will loose the wells forever. Also the Russian people are for this war. It is supported by the people. Really Russia is trying to close the gaps before they collapse. It is their last chance. So the Ukraine is just a stepping stone. The sanctions are hurting.

 

China????  They do not have the food or the reserves to survive. The Global economy as we know it is collapsing. China is in a VERY bad spot. Manufacturing is moving out of China. I believe Vietnam will be the real winner here. Thailand will get the crumbs. 

It they started a war China would collapse in a matter of months IMO and China knows it.

 

There are many models out there but this one is the one I believe. And where I will put my money.

 

If you believe China will survive then by all means invest in China and good luck. Personally I see it as a failed country at this point.

Edited July 30, 2022 by Gknrd

[The Hammer2021]

On 7/29/2022 at 8:47 AM, Lucky Bones said:

Not even gunna read this mish-mash of history and guessing games.

Thinking this bloke is just banging the keyboard for the sake of it.

As opposed to what? Using smoke signals? The irony here is that YOU are bashing on a keyboard to express disapproval of something you have not read. If you were truly disinterested you would just ignore it and not comment  on it. Or you would read it and make an 'informed' criticism of the content. Who knows? You might learn something lol

[The Hammer2021]

3 hours ago, Gknrd said:

Huge difference, The Russian oil is fixing to be in severe trouble IMO. There main supply in in perma. frost. If they have to cut more supplies they will loose the wells forever. Also the Russian people are for this war. It is supported by the people. Really Russia is trying to close the gaps before they collapse. It is their last chance. So the Ukraine is just a stepping stone. The sanctions are hurting.

 

China????  They do not have the food or the reserves to survive. The Global economy as we know it is collapsing. China is in a VERY bad spot. Manufacturing is moving out of China. I believe Vietnam will be the real winner here. Thailand will get the crumbs. 

It they started a war China would collapse in a matter of months IMO and China knows it.

 

There are many models out there but this one is the one I believe. And where I will put my money.

 

If you believe China will survive then by all means invest in China and good luck. Personally I see it as a failed country at this point.

"There are many models out there but this one is the one I believe. And where I will put my money."

Where? Sorry I missed it.

Regarding China: it considers its population expendable. 30 million died between 1945 -1975 mainly of starvation.

 

Edited July 30, 2022 by The Hammer2021

[Martin Brit]

I'm from UK. Part of my retirement income comes from drawdown from an invested Pension & ISA. Trump made my drawdown pension/ISA an average of 16% per year for the 5 years he was there. I drew down 8% per year and left 8% growth.

I can't wait for him to return!! Biden is taking the US into recession. You may not like Trump but as an investor he did good for me. 

 

[Gknrd]

1 hour ago, The Hammer2021 said:

"There are many models out there but this one is the one I believe. And where I will put my money."

Where? Sorry I missed it.

Regarding China: it considers its population expendable. 30 million died between 1945 -1975 mainly of starvation.

 

America , Mexico, some parts of South America for me!  China and most of Asia are dead . I am giving them a very wide berth.. India will see growth I think. But, I don't know enough about it to talk about.. 

Exactly right, China is going to fall off a cliff and is in the process now IMO. They cannot feed themselves and energy is imported to run their factoreis China is in a very bad situation IMO. Personally I don't see how they will ever come out of it. I hope I am wrong but I am getting out fast as I can now.  

Edited July 30, 2022 by Gknrd

[Gknrd]

14 minutes ago, Martin Brit said:

I'm from UK. Part of my retirement income comes from drawdown from an invested Pension & ISA. Trump made my drawdown pension/ISA an average of 16% per year for the 5 years he was there. I drew down 8% per year and left 8% growth.

I can't wait for him to return!! Biden is taking the US into recession. You may not like Trump but as an investor he did good for me. 

 

You will never see that again IMO, the golden years are behind us. Globalization is coming to an end. It will take at least 5 years to relocate factories from China . Supply chains are broken and China does not have a vaccine. They have no choice but to stay in lockdown. No matter who is in charge we are going to see crazy inflation . My opinion. haha