Thai Baht heads to near 37 Baht/US$, as BoT defends its use of $19 billion in defending the currency

[John Drake]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Many folks from those low brow universities you call third rate are currently running companies in the business sector while many from a prestigious university are not using their degree at all. 

Nowhere was I making a  case for a university degree to be utilitarian. That is the role of vocational schools and some community colleges in the US. As for your claim, indeed, some people successfully run companies and have no college degree whatsoever. Universities have more complex functions.

[KhunLA]

2 minutes ago, sanuk711 said:

Looking at your chart KhunLA....shouldn't your hope be ...I wish Bush would make a come back----

Yea, he was shining for a few months, before setting the bar for the new 'how low can you go' level of sub 30/1.

Actually did work out great for me, as 1st house & car were bought at good rate.

Does boggle the mind why USD is so strong.

Bush ... war, deficit

Obama ... war, bail out deficits

Trump ... deficit, but didn't follow, so don't know why

Biden ... deficit, and trying for more, but up 25%

[mania]

50 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

You forget the average Thai. Millions are struggling right now. The exchange rate does not matter to them. But, the economy does. And it is hurting here. 

Read my post again

That is exactly who I am saying the dropping baht will help

In the form of more tourists whose dollar goes further

same for exports

 

Which is why I said

"During troubled times for economies many a currency was happy to race to the bottom"

[Boomer6969]

1 hour ago, Onerak said:

Still waiting for the days when 40 BHT will be one USD as It was when I had to flee my nomadic living in Europe to Thailand. I have also witnessed the dark days when one US was mere 29 BHT. More importantly I am waiting for interest rate to go up so that I can borrow money from CC at 3-4% and earn in saving at 6% as I used to before the 2008 housing crash. 100K borrowed from CC at 3% used to net me 2,000 USD or 80,000 BHT at 40 BHT per USD with zero risk. 

Gee.. I have about 250 KUSD in various accounts, would you like to manage them for me?

[Robin]

Not to worry.  when the 1 million investors arrive each with 1 million dollars to invest, the Baht will climb to new, levels, never seen before.

meanwhile, BOT must keep the Baht high so that luxury goods for the Elite, Benzs, Submarines, are cheap.

A cheaper Baht will only benefit the poor rice farmers who might get more for their crop

[tomazbodner]

1 hour ago, Onerak said:

Still waiting for the days when 40 BHT will be one USD as It was when I had to flee my nomadic living in Europe to Thailand. I have also witnessed the dark days when one US was mere 29 BHT. More importantly I am waiting for interest rate to go up so that I can borrow money from CC at 3-4% and earn in saving at 6% as I used to before the 2008 housing crash. 100K borrowed from CC at 3% used to net me 2,000 USD or 80,000 BHT at 40 BHT per USD with zero risk. 

I'm waiting for USD to drop to 25 THB like before 1997...

[JimmyJ]

2 hours ago, Onerak said:

Still waiting for the days when 40 BHT will be one USD as It was when I had to flee my nomadic living in Europe to Thailand. I have also witnessed the dark days when one US was mere 29 BHT. More importantly I am waiting for interest rate to go up so that I can borrow money from CC at 3-4% and earn in saving at 6% as I used to before the 2008 housing crash. 100K borrowed from CC at 3% used to net me 2,000 USD or 80,000 BHT at 40 BHT per USD with zero risk. 

You would borrow from your cc's and then "earn in saving at 6%".

 

Where would you invest the cc borrowed money and get 6%?

[Caldera]

2 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

Here we go again----so the Baht is tanking...................... go ask anyone who is not American & has to live on an overseas income what they think of that assessment.

My "assessment" is in response to this particular topic. If you had bothered to read the title of this thread, you would have noticed that it's specifically about the THB-USD exchange rate. So yes, the baht is tanking, against the US dollar anyway. 

 

Maube you should lament the decline of your currency in your currency's thread instead .

[lapamita]

currency intervention always fail in medium  to longterm  ( anywhere at any time from CH over RU to GBp, and costing hudghe ammount of money.

short term you can make a stabilisation. 

dont think the BOT is already intervening , or their lost their memorys for the late 90s

..and exchange rates matter, even for the normal population, bcs countrys heavely dependend on import ,would import inflation ,what would lead to higher intrestrates ,and in the following a downturn in GDP,and this is bad for than anyone.

The world do to excessive moneyprinting and absurd central bank policys ,will now pay a very high price for the failure of the tightrope act ,especally US and >EU ,but good luck for the politicans that they blame russia and the proxy war aginst them. but who undertsands econommics know that its not the fault ,its the fault of centralbank ,last year PPI increasd heavy 10% even before the war ,and centralbank was not seen it offically,and called it temporary ,what ignorrand people

[vivananahuahin]

If you check this website

www.tradingeconomics.com,all informations will be more transparent, this is the reality and you can take your conclusions.

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

And its not hurting anyone anywhere else ..is it ?....... I mean people from your country are not worried about the highest inflation for nearly 50 years.   People from my country (& the rest of Europe) are not worried about --Do they buy oil & keep warm or buy food this winter. China is possibly looking at its biggest Property crash in its history.

And some people on here seem to think that Thailand shouldn't be caught up in this looming world recession--because its all Thailand fault.

 

The short term future all over the world, is not looking so great--but I know where I would rather be at the moment.

I agree with all you say. I think the world is heading for a massive correction, crash, call it what you like. But my point is that many economies are performing far better than Thailand, and the leaders here failed desperately and miserable. 

[StayinThailand2much]

4 hours ago, Onerak said:

When was Malaysia GDP/capita equaled to Thailand's GDP per capita. In 1990, Malaysia stood at 2,500 USD vs Thailand's $1500 USD per capita. The problem with Thailand is it heavily depended on low skilled Tourism industry and brothels fronting as bars throughout the country. No country has prospered by inviting old low skilled and low income foreigners to marry poverty stricken local girls from the bars in exchange for marriage visas.

Google is your friend, but, yes, you'd have to go back about two-and-a-half more decades from 1990. Also, who forced Thailand to rely on "low skilled Tourism industry and brothels fronting as bars throughout the country"? Why didn't Thailand invest in education, infrastructure, and promote investment like other countries in the region (Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, etc.)? But instead they emphasised on old class hierarchies, low-skill and low-paid jobs, and agriculture, esp. rice export...

[mixed]

3 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Does boggle the mind why USD is so strong.

I think it's down to interest rates. When they did the bail out around 2008 lots of money was printed, but Western economies were in trouble, so the bankers sent the money to Asia, which was booming with higher interest rates. No rates are going up in the US and the US$ is high.

[vandeventer]

3 hours ago, mommysboy said:

The dollar is really strong at the moment- against most currencies.

One would think with all the USA debt you would need a wheelbarrow full of dollars for 1 baht?

https://www.pgpf.org/national-debt-clock?gclid=Cj0KCQjwvZCZBhCiARIsAPXbajuHQMZ31TaecsGe3a7FljCFTjwqmjBRZucsAe_15UkOZx8itTKiHaYaAtdNEALw_wcB

[morrobay]

7 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Google is your friend, but, yes, you'd have to go back about three more decades from 1990. Also, who forced Thailand to rely on "low skilled Tourism industry and brothels fronting as bars throughout the country"? Why didn't Thailand invest in education, infrastructure and investment like other countries in the region (Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, etc.)? But instead they emphasised on old class  hierarchies, low-skill jobs, and agriculture, esp. rice export...

Because it is a feudal society by design/ construction 

[StayinThailand2much]

7 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Because it is a feudal society by design/ construction 

Well, which takes us back to 'mismanagement'... A ruling class that runs a country as a feudal society in the 20th and 21st centuries, while enriching themselves, mismananages the economy and robs its citizens of a better future.

[mixed]

1 minute ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Well, which takes us back to 'mismanagement'... A ruling class that runs a country as a feudal society in the 20th and 21st centuries, mismananages the economy and robs its citizens of a better future.

You mean the US? Jokes aside, Thailand was called the teflon economy for a long time. Lots of Thais I know feel their lives have improved over the last 20 years. Lots of ppl I know didn't go to high, but there kids have gone to uni. It does seem mismanaged, but then again, look at what the bankers were up to pre 08 crash.

[StayinThailand2much]

8 minutes ago, mixed said:

You mean the US? Jokes aside, Thailand was called the teflon economy for a long time. Lots of Thais I know feel their lives have improved over the last 20 years. Lots of ppl I know didn't go to high, but there kids have gone to uni. It does seem mismanaged, but then again, look at what the bankers were up to pre 08 crash.

'Teflon economy' because no development would stick? - Yes, (some) Thais live better than a hundred years ago. If they sell their kidneys, they can even afford a smartphone... But I wouldn't compare Thailand with itself a long time ago, but rather countries that did better thanks to less corrupt politicians, inequality of wealth, and better opportunities for many, not just a rich elite.

[mixed]

9 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

'Teflon economy' because no development would stick? - Yes, (some) Thais live better than a hundred years ago. If they sell their kidneys, they can even afford a smartphone... But I wouldn't compare Thailand with itself a long time ago, but rather countries that did better thanks to less corrupt politicians, inequality of wealth, and better opportunities for many, not just a rich elite.

No, it was because coups, floods and tsunamis did little to the economy. Thailand is now an upper middle income country, there are plenty of places more corrupt and more unequal (including the US). Pretty much everyone has a smartphone and two kidneys. Over a decade a go the govt increased the min wage by around 30%, never seen anything like that in a western country.

 

There is so much work that the difficult, dirty and dangerous jobs can be left to migrants, who make up around 10% of the workforce.

[Dogmatix]

Quite a confusing article. It is to be expected that international reserves are down. Thailand has been running a current account deficit since COVID and the BoT is hiking rates at a much slower rate than the Fed. In addition to the current account deficit there have been significant portfolio outflows putting further pressure on the capital account and international reserves. Probably the BoT has been intervening in the market to slow the rate of the baht's decline but that is part of their job to keep conditions as stable as possible. I don't see anything unusual here with the caveat that the BoT, I think reports only spot international reserves without netting off futures and forward positions, a standard they got from the Bank of England. This means that gains or losses in the futures and forwards markets are not reflected n the reported numbers. In 1997 I came from a meeting at the BoT where they told us reserves were still at around $30bn but it was suddenly revealed a few days later that netting off losses in the futures and forwards markets, the reserves were actually close to zero and the melt down commenced. 

 

We are not close to the 1997 situation at this point. 

[sanuk711]

2 hours ago, Caldera said:

My "assessment" is in response to this particular topic. If you had bothered to read the title of this thread, you would have noticed that it's specifically about the THB-USD exchange rate. So yes, the baht is tanking, against the US dollar anyway. 

 

Maube you should lament the decline of your currency in your currency's thread instead .

 

As most posters have pointed out here- Thai baht isn't dropping in its value overall,

No more then the GBP or Eruo is "tanking" against the $us--Its a run-away $us

Which in the longer run isn't good for most Americans

 

1 Jan   $US 1=  buys--GBP 0.729

To-day         =             GBP 0.871

1 Jan  $us1 =   Buys   EUR  0.876

To-day        =           EUR    1.009

[StayinThailand2much]

18 minutes ago, mixed said:

No, it was because coups, floods and tsunamis did little to the economy.

I see that you adopted the 'Thai way' of blaming everything and everyone, except oneself, the country's corrupt politicians, common sense, good management of the economy, etc. - Thais who struggle like to blame 'spirits' or other people for not having enough money... Did the coups fall from the sky, don't other countries have floods, and, seriously, many live 'hand to mouth' because of one west-coast tsunami 18 years ago?? 

[Paul Catton]

All fiat money should revert to being backed by the "Gold Standard" making all currencies equal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Everything else is, Manipulation, War Mongering, Governmental Creative Accounting that suits the 1% and appease the 99%, at times.

Perhaps this was too simplistic, until mankind deemed themselves smarter.

 

[mixed]

5 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

I see that you adopted 'the Thai way' of blaming everything and everyone, except oneself and the country's corrupt politicians. -  Thais who struggle like to blame 'spirits' or other people for not having enough money... Did the coups fall from the sky, don't other countries have floods, and, seriously, many live 'hand to mouth' because of one west-coast tsunami 18 years ago?? 

Blaming who for what?

[morrobay]

13 minutes ago, mixed said:

Thailand is now an upper middle income country, 

 

 

Only by voodoo math. That is averaging over the total population. The very wealthy high income 5% with the low income 95%. And by the way with the minimum daily wage of about 350 - 400 baht not a very good point. 

[mixed]

2 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Only by voodoo math. That is averaging over the total population. The very wealthy high income 5% with the low income 95%. And by the way with the minimum daily wage of about 350 - 400 baht not a very good point. 

But it's the same for every country when it comes to that rating, same with GDP etc. The table I looked at put Thailand in the middle for wealth inequality.

[StayinThailand2much]

8 minutes ago, mixed said:

Blaming who for what?

You mentioned coups, floods, and tsunamis being responsible for Thailand's ills. (Kids dropping out of school, unemployment, poverty, homelessness...)

 

I guess, we'll have to agree to disagree...

[lujanit]

55 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Name the studies then that are worthless in which these degrees are being classed as by you please?  Should be interesting to know what you consider as a worthless degree, such as art...etc...

I'll have a go at answering this question.

 

The Degrees and Graduate Diplomas programs I describe hereunder are not 'worthless'.  Mostly they are applied science disciplines.  As for art I have a high regard for the serious study of the history of art.  In fact I have many books on the history of art and artists.  I highly recommend the BBC series Perspective with Waldermar Januszczak on Youtube.  Waldermar is an outstanding knowledgeable presenter.  You only have to read the comments to see I'm not the only one who believes this.

 

As a university lecturer who sat on examination committee meetings (these meetings were to review exam results. Part of the process was who was given a outright fail and which students were to be given a supplementary exam).  I can say that overseas full paying students were treated far differently to local students.

 

Foreign students were passed even though they had failing grades.  At one meeting two of us (chemistry lecturers) objected to an Indonesian student (Degree contender, three year program) being awarded his degree even though his exam results were abysmal.  He couldn't even read and speak English properly.  This was identified early on as well as his poor understanding of prerequisites, one of which basic high school chemistry.  He was given supplementary English lessons by an other.  I was given the task of tutoring him on basic chemistry and it became obvious early on he didn't even understand the difference between a proton, neutron and an electron.

 

At exam time it was necessary for him to be allocated a 'reader' who read out to him the questions.  The 'reader' could not provide any guidance, yet this was not enforced.  The reason was to get the candidate over the line at all costs.  This was done in a separate room, only the two of them with no supervision.

 

One committee member said if we failed him 25% of the foreign budget would vanish.  It was all about the money.  I'll say this again and again.

 

In the end he was issued his degree.  It was endorsed with "only valid in Indonesia".

 

Another Thai student who went to London for a MBA was doing so abysmally the only way he got through was to send his assignments to his mother and she would write them for him.  His mother is an excellent fluent English speaker, reader and writer.  This is evident by reading her efforts.  The lecturers were well aware of someone else writing the assignments, how could they not be?  He was awarded his MBA all because he was a foreign full paying student.  All over the world full fee paying students are being granted/ awarded degrees by universities just because they are full fee paying students.  They don't deserve them.  How does he use his MBA?  He set up an Lazada store which sold illegal items.  The BIB have been to see him numerous times and taken away the illegal items.  In the end last I heard the cops wanted 100k baht to make the problem go away.

 

I personally know of many other cases, particularly Pacific Islanders who were 'granted' worthless Graduate Diplomas.  They simply didn't deserve them.  The irony of this was that the fees were paid by Australian taxpayers through AusAid (government charity).  AusAid (short form for The Australian Agency for International Development within The Department of Foreign Affairs) has a particular budget for enhancing educational stands in nearby countries and if they didn't spend it in any given year the budget there was the threat the budget would be probably decreased the following year.  So students were selected not on the prospect that would pass but the fact a budget had to be spent.  Also our Indonesian friend described above won his place paid by AusAid.  If he had been given a English language test before being granted the scholarship he probably never have been granted the scholarship.  Then again there was a budget to be spent.

 

His scholarship not only included tuition fees but also full board (room and food) and airfare costs.

 

Just listen to the outcry from Universities not only in Australia at the height the the covid lock down. Foreign full paying students could not travel and this was hitting the bottom line.  You see it is all about the money.  Word soon gets around which universities are an easy target and they flock to them.  Chinese students in particular are wary of returning to Australia regardless of the incentives provided by the government (https://www.studyinternational.com/news/international-students-from-china-oz/).

 

All the above are not false facts or he said she said.  I personally witnessed everything I have described.  So degrees are being issued by universities just because the candidates are foreign full fee paying.  They simply don't deserve them.  I'll say it again.  It's all about the money.  The words degree mills or diploma mills actually issue worthless degrees or diplomas (a US list is here https://www.geteducated.com/diploma-mill-police/degree-mills-list/).  An example quoted from the aforementioned list "If it sounds too good to be true – it is!  Western Valley (Central University in NY) offers life experience degrees in 15 days at all degree levels!?"  A full list of degree mills provided by Wikipedia can be found at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unaccredited_institutions_of_higher_education.

 

I hope I have answered your concerns adequately, it is from personal experience.  The degrees and graduate diplomas programs may not be worthless yet some of students awarded them are not deserving.

[mixed]

35 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

You mentioned coups, floods, and tsunamis being responsible for Thailand's ills. (Kids dropping out of school, unemployment, poverty, homelessness...)

 

I guess, we'll have to agree to disagree...

Pls reread, I said the Thai economy was referred to as the Teflon Economy because problems would stick, the floods etc. were examples of such problems.

[perry21]

The key story here is the strong US$ which is rising against most currencies, except the Rouble. The Japanese Yen, Sterling, Euro and Yuan are all getting smashed down. The scale of these moves is rather dramatic because FX markets rarely move with this level of volatility. Macro experts sometimes call a strong dollar a global wrecking ball that causes chaos throughout the global economy. Imports of energy and commodities (denominated in $) rise for all importing countries (Thailand included) leading to higher inflation. Furthermore many asian/thai business have borrowed heavily in dollars and the nominal value of that debt rises when converted back in local currency (like a foreign currency mortgage) . Conversely Thailand becomes attractive as a lower cost destination for Americans. Swings and roundabouts but the macro picture is becoming extremely uncertain. As a British person, living in London, I note the concern about the Thai economy, Personally I am much more concerned about the winter situation in UK/Europe, and I see Thailand as a safe haven.