Thai Central Bank is buying the Baht

[ncc1701d]

You young whipper snappers. '97? you need to go back to '87 when interest rates were over 15% or higher depending on where you were.

[nigelforbes]

43 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Very hard to say. If the DOW drops through the floor, and the major world economies collapse, there is a chance of bitcoin going to $500,000 and ETH going to $50,000. And gold going to $50,000 and silver rising to $2,500 an ounce. But, that is anyone's guess. It would likely only happen under conditions that would make 1929 look like a picnic. A major correction is coming. It is only a question of when, and how severe it is. 

What utter tosh, I'm sorry but it really is!  Good Lord man, wherever do you dream this stuff up! The correction is here, it's happening now, it's not an instant bang or a flash it's a slow repricing of assets which is well under way. The S&P is down 24%, the floor is estimated to be around 3,200 (it's around 3,600 today).

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

What utter tosh, I'm sorry but it really is!  Good Lord man, wherever do you dream this stuff up! The correction is here, it's happening now, it's not an instant bang or a flash it's a slow repricing of assets which is well under way. The S&P is down 24%, the floor is estimated to be around 3,200 (it's around 3,600 today).

Very conventional thinking. Let's discuss this in 3 years when your head is spinning, your portfolio has dropped by a lot, and you are saying "wow, I just did not see this coming". Sure, it happened before. But I did not think history would repeat itself. 35x earnings seems reasonable. 

Edited October 3, 2022 by spidermike007

[nigelforbes]

41 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Very conventional thinking. Let's discuss this in 3 years when your head is spinning, your portfolio has dropped by a lot, and you are saying "wow, I just did not see this coming". Sure, it happened before. But I did not think history would repeat itself. 35x earnings seems reasonable. 

The thing is, I did see this coming, just as many others did also. I got out of equities in September 2021 when the 10 year Treasury bond yield curve inverted, the fact that inflation was coming was a no brainer.  I went heavily into PNL, CGT and RICA and I'm extremely glad I did. Many of my fellow investors have seen their portfolio's fall by up to 50%, I'm down 5.7% but that's on the basis of only 20% in equities and 60% in cash.

 

The point here is that market falls, contagion, inflation and bond market gyration are in mid throes currently, this is not something that is going to suddenly hit in the future, it's here, now. But the idea that Bitcoin and Gold will do as you suggest and that the DJ will go to zero is the stuff of fantasies, that's saying that no US listed company will have any value whatsoever, not even asset value and that's absurd. Sorry, it doesn't even pass the long distance sniff test, even Dr Doom isn't that far fetched.

[spidermike007]

13 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

The thing is, I did see this coming, just as many others did also. I got out of equities in September 2021 when the 10 year Treasury bond yield curve inverted, the fact that inflation was coming was a no brainer.  I went heavily into PNL, CGT and RICA and I'm extremely glad I did. Many of my fellow investors have seen their portfolio's fall by up to 50%, I'm down 5.7% but that's on the basis of only 20% in equities and 60% in cash.

 

The point here is that market falls, contagion, inflation and bond market gyration are in mid throes currently, this is not something that is going to suddenly hit in the future, it's here, now. But the idea that Bitcoin and Gold will do as you suggest and that the DJ will go to zero is the stuff of fantasies, that's saying that no US listed company will have any value whatsoever, not even asset value and that's absurd. Sorry, it doesn't even pass the long distance sniff test, even Dr Doom isn't that far fetched.

I never said zero. I said an 80% drop from where we are today. Around 5,500 to 6,000 is my forecast. Could take a few years. 

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

I never said zero. I said an 80% drop from where we are today. Around 5,500 to 6,000 is my forecast. Could take a few years. 

I personally don't care about the DJI, I don't know any investors who do care because it's not a meaningful indicator. The S&P on the other hand is, that's down to 3,600 from a high of 4,600 or so, the estimated bottom is between 3,000 and 3,200, a fall of 25%/30%. I do note that lots of people like to try and compare events of today with the crash of 1929. Exactly why people think that the 1929 crash is anything of a useful indicator or reference for today bear market escapes me, everything about the circumstances, the volumes, the value etc etc, are all very different today than they were 100 years ago.

[Adumbration]

A few posters have misinterpreted the gist of my op.

 

I was not commenting on the value of the AUD against the baht, but rather the huge 2% drop in a couple of hours (and I could not find any data points to justify the drop).

 

Government invervention in the markets, both equity and currency, have made them all a farce and certainly not something properly defined as a "market".

 

Perhaps the definition of market should be redefined as "conduit for government intervention and manipulation".

[Paradise Pete]

On 10/2/2022 at 11:33 PM, Pedrogaz said:

It is idiocy for the Central Bank to but Baht when it is up against the USD. Better wait until this round of dollar rise is over.

They're buying cheap baht now. When the dollar eventually eases they might buy it back at a profit.

[gearbox]

On 10/3/2022 at 12:00 PM, gearbox said:

AUD will probably get some support tomorrow when the Reserve Bank is expected to raise the interest rate again.

False positive, it is going down again,  about to enter the 23 range. Still not as bad s against some other SEA currencies,  bar the covid times it is pretty much at 5 years low against the VND.