Will new XBB strain cause COVID to resurge in Thailand?

[phetphet]

15 hours ago, moogradod said:

This is one of the big differences to the flu. For the flu, vaccination tailored to the latest strains is readily available every year.

 

Not so for Covid. I recall with horror how difficult it was to get all my (now 4) jabs and the jabs for my wife and stepdaughter. Of course we would all get the latest Covid vaccine if it only was available - but I suspect it will be like the last time.

 

 

Government have already stated that the new bivalent vaccines won't be available here until next year.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Eleftheros said:

According to the NIH, the first main risk factor in death from Covid is obesity (extra 31% risk), the second highest is "anxiety and fear-related disorders" (+28%), so yes, worrying about things does appear to quite significantly increase the risk from Covid.

Worrying about something is not the same as those who call Covid Fear porn.....I worry about my finances, my kids driving a car, but I never fear any of it.....you guys are just ridiculous with your comparisons of fear and worry and then equate it to what has been put out in the press as more fear driving content, which it is far from.....It is information only to be used by those who see it, read, it etc...to make informed decision as to how they view it.  Sorry if you see it as fear....

 

https://advice.theshineapp.com/articles/the-difference-between-fear-worry/

Edited October 18, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[ikke1959]

1 hour ago, MrJ2U said:

It's a bloody pandemic and I and other people want to be informed.

 

Putting your head in the sand and pretending news variants of the potentially deadly virus isn't important is just plain ridiculous.

 

 

Abroad it is much less news than here in Thailand with 3 cases, and by the way it is almost the end of the pandemic.

Edited October 18, 2022 by ikke1959

[Eleftheros]

28 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is information only to be used by those who see it, read, it etc...to make informed decision as to how they view it.

Is it your opinion, then, that people who disagree with your view of the Covid situation do not do that same analysis?

 

That's not an accusation, by the way, I'm just interested to know where you stand on that.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Eleftheros
Clarification

[ThailandRyan]

15 minutes ago, Eleftheros said:

Is it your opinion, then, that people who disagree with your view of the Covid situation do not do that same analysis?

 

That's not an accusation, by the way, I'm just interested to know where you stand on that.

I never feared Covid, so your saying that the world feared Covid or just the Governments feared it and spread the word as far as cases went. Information is information, not for anything else in my view but to see where things are.  Folks also believe the pharmaceutical companies are making a killing, well they may be or they may not be as many gave the vaccines away.  Millions were spent on R&D and so companies do deserve to make the money back.  JUst wait until generics come out.......end game.  This was never about what folks think, this was about ensuring many more than the 6.5 million did not die....

[Rimmer]

A quoted reply to a post that has been snipped to change its meaning, it has now been removed also a reply

[MrJ2U]

3 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

end of the pandemic.

tell that to the new variant.

 

He never got the memo.

 

"Subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 derived from omicron covid variant BA.5, and news outlets cover the rise of them across the country and worries that they may create a surge in cases this winter."

 

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/covid-bq-1-variant-rising-now-constitutes-10-of-us-cases/

 

 

"Scientists were worried about a particular COVID variant this fall. They didn’t expect its offspring."

 

https://fortune.com/well/2022/09/21/scientists-watching-centaurus-omicron-covid-variant-offspring-immune-evasion-monoclonal-antibodies-fall-winter-surge-forcast-model-prediction/

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 hours ago, Eleftheros said:

According to the NIH, the first main risk factor in death from Covid is obesity (extra 31% risk), the second highest is "anxiety and fear-related disorders" (+28%), so yes, worrying about things does appear to quite significantly increase the risk from Covid.

 

The state of understanding of the primary risk factors for serious COVID illness has evolved since the time of that mid 2021 research.

 

Here's a more up-to-date, current discussion of those issues, noting what other research has previously found -- advanced AGE is the highest risk factor for serious COVID illness.

 

"We continue to learn more about the risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes. Although age is the strongest risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes, patients with certain underlying medical conditions are also at higher risk."

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-care/underlyingconditions.html

 

AND

 

"Everything we know underscores the importance of maintaining health-promoting behaviors, even as restrictions begin to ease, especially if you have one or more underlying medical conditions.

 

To reduce your risk of getting sick, get vaccinated and boosted as soon as you are eligible, wear a mask indoors, especially when community levels of COVID are elevated, maintain a physical distance of at least six feet when you're around other people, and wash your hands often."

 

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-you-are-at-higher-risk

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[owl sees all]

 

The natural state of the body is good health.

 

It is up to us if we promote the systems that keep us healthy or abuse them.

 

One small step in the right direction, is better than one giant leap the wrong way.

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by owl sees all

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

21 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

 

The natural state of the body is good health.

 

Not as humans get older... The general trend as people age is lessened natural immunity and increased potential for various things gradually (or sometimes not so gradually) going wrong.

 

[owl sees all]

19 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Not as humans get older... The general trend as people age is lessened natural immunity and increased potential for various things gradually (or sometimes not so gradually) going wrong.

 

I believe the body has an inbuilt maintenance. Every second the body id working to naturalise itself.

 

Eating good food, drinking sensibly and engaging with nature will help the body. Putting toxins into it will gets the system working overtime. And, if the toxins are too much, or too poisonous, the body cannot cope and will suffer ill-health; or die even.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by owl sees all

[mommysboy]

Thanks for the heads up! Some will wear a mask and adjust their behaviour a bit, others won't. There's nothing more we can practicably do about it, is there?  I suppose the main concern must be whether it's any more serious than previous Omicron variants, and so far the scant evidence suggests that it may even be milder.  My intuition is that because most people have had the virus at least once, and are at least double jabbed that this latest outbreak will be of some public concern, but certainly not an emergency.

 

Actually I've got a belter of a cold right this moment. I'm going to bed for a rest. I should be fine in a day or two just like when I had Covid19 a few weeks ago.  Most people have the same experience.  Let's look after the elderly and vulnerable better, maybe!

 

[onthedarkside]

A post offering unsubstantiated medical advice has been removed.

 

[moogradod]

5 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

Abroad it is much less news than here in Thailand with 3 cases, and by the way it is almost the end of the pandemic.

Not exactly. Example: Switzerland/Germany (looking at your name I suspect you might come from Berlin) where they think that a giant number of non detected cases existed that never went into the statistics. They are discussing to reintroduce masks in certain situations. Source: "Blick" online.

 

However there is hope on the horizon because predictions also state that with more and more mutations, the lethality of the virus might diminish. I would not mind to get a cold-like ailment from time to time if this were all that was to it.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, moogradod said:

I would not mind to get a cold-like ailment from time to time if this were all that was to it.

 

Unless, perhaps, it also left you with any of the ongoing symptoms of so-called Long COVID, which have been shown to include things such as diminished mental capacity, "brain fog," cardiac problems, shortness of breath, chronic fatigue, etc etc.

 

"Post-COVID conditions can include a wide range of ongoing health problems; these conditions can last weeks, months, or longer.

 

Post-COVID conditions are found more often in people who had severe COVID-19 illness, but anyone who has been infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 can experience post-COVID conditions, even people who had mild illness or no symptoms from COVID-19.

 

People who are not vaccinated against COVID-19 and become infected might also be at higher risk of developing post-COVID conditions compared to people who were vaccinated and had breakthrough infections."

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/index.html

 

 

[moogradod]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

.....................

"We continue to learn more about the risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes. Although age is the strongest risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes, patients with certain underlying medical conditions are also at higher risk."

 

 

If I multiply all the factors that are applicable to me then I arrive at a Risk Factor of nearly 15. Should I now be still careful or is this just like the flu and I couldn't care less ? (Rhetorical Question)

Edited October 18, 2022 by moogradod

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The ‘End’ of COVID Is Still Far Worse Than We Imagined

Even now, the coronavirus is killing three times as many people [in the U.S.] as the flu.

 

September 22, 2022

...

"COVID has settled into something far worse than the flu. When President Joe Biden declared this week, “The pandemic is over. If you notice, no one’s wearing masks,” the country was still recording more than 400 COVID deaths a day—more than triple the average number from flu."

....

"Trevor Bedford, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, estimates that COVID will continue to exact a death toll of 100,000 Americans a year in the near future. This too is approximately three times that of a typical flu year."

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/09/covid-pandemic-end-worse-than-flu/671514/

 

100,000 COVID deaths per year in the U.S. would mean an average of about 273 per day. Right now, last I saw from the U.S. CDC, even with the U.S. right now being in a COVID declining phase, COVID deaths still have been averaging more than 300 per day, well above the pace for 100,000 COVID deaths per year.

 

"The current 7-day moving average of new deaths (328) decreased 8.5% compared with the previous 7-day moving average (359)."

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[ThailandRyan]

2 hours ago, owl sees all said:

 

The natural state of the body is good health.

 

It is up to us if we promote the systems that keep us healthy or abuse them.

 

One small step in the right direction, is better than one giant leap the wrong way.

 

Yet how many are truly healthy as you put it as they age?  Not many can maintain the same health as we once did as our bodies systems become damaged and ravaged from daily life. No its not because of certain factors for some of us, I never was obese  fat or ate junk, but a major surgery to my neck put me as one with an autoimmune issue and made me a diabetic.

[retiree]

44 minutes ago, moogradod said:

However there is hope on the horizon because predictions also state that with more and more mutations, the lethality of the virus might diminish

It has been pointed out repeatedly that:

 - mutation is random, 

 - with more mutations lethality could increase, even if less contagious, 

 - with greater contagion rate, even a less lethal variant could sicken and kill more people. 

See thread beginning with:

 

[anrcaccount]

https://www.gov.sg/article/factually141022-a

 

Facts of the case

• There has been no evidence of XBB subvariant causing more severe illness than previous variants. In fact, our local data in the last two weeks shows that XBB cases are estimated to have a 30% lower risk of hospitalisation compared to Omicron BA.5 variant cases. 
• No increases in COVID-19 deaths have been observed over the past month.
• Please visit www.moh.gov.sg for latest information on COVID-19.
   

Secondly, an observation: 

 

It seems Thailand is in a completely different dimension in regards to a continuing focus on covid vs the rest of the world.

 

Outside of China, covid barely makes the news anymore. The concept of mass mask wearing is becoming vanishingly rare throughout the world.

 

It becomes clear the risk lies with the older population who can be vaccinated and treated with anti virals. Thailand needs to change, its continuing obsession with covid is not helping the society. 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by onthedarkside
misleading, off-topic comments removed

[connda]

Close the borders.  Lock people in their homes.  Close all business except for large international corporate retailers. 

[Photoguy21]

No idea and care even less.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

9 minutes ago, connda said:

Close the borders.  Lock people in their homes.  Close all business except for large international corporate retailers. 

 

A better answer would be:

 

--Get vaccinated and boosted as appropriate.

--Try to maintain a healthy lifestyle

--Wear a facemask when away from home and indoors around other people

--Observe social distancing when possible

 

[owl sees all]

55 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yet how many are truly healthy as you put it as they age?  Not many can maintain the same health as we once did as our bodies systems become damaged and ravaged from daily life. No its not because of certain factors for some of us, I never was obese  fat or ate junk, but a major surgery to my neck put me as one with an autoimmune issue and made me a diabetic.

Point taken.

 

Just as an example. Many moons ago I hurt my hip in UK Special Forces. Was in Military Hospital in South east London, and was pensioned off. However, I carried on playing footy until finally hanging up my boots at 42, mostly due to the hip. When it did play me up, my remedy was to take Magnesium daily for a week or so.

 

Now fast forward 45 years to my present days in Thailand. When the hip started playing me up about 3 years ago, I changed medication. No more Magnesium. Instead a bowl of chicken-foot soup on most days. Also stopped drinking beer and replaced it with reishi (mushroom) wine; although I don't add the Lao Khow as I once did.

 

The body is a wonderful bit of kit, that is working desperately 24/7 to keep us in good health. Some things we did in the past hurt us, and can never be repaired. Often the body will contain these abnormalities, and we could be quite unaware of the problem.

 

We are after all; animals. And if we fully become part of nature, and try our best to eliminate toxins, we will be doing as best we can.

Edited October 18, 2022 by owl sees all

[coolcarer]

56 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Point taken.

 

Just as an example. Many moons ago I hurt my hip in UK Special Forces. Was in Military Hospital in South east London, and was pensioned off. However, I carried on playing footy until finally hanging up my boots at 42, mostly due to the hip. When it did play me up, my remedy was to take Magnesium daily for a week or so.

 

Now fast forward 45 years to my present days in Thailand. When the hip started playing me up about 3 years ago, I changed medication. No more Magnesium. Instead a bowl of chicken-foot soup on most days. Also stopped drinking beer and replaced it with reishi (mushroom) wine; although I don't add the Lao Khow as I once did.

 

The body is a wonderful bit of kit, that is working desperately 24/7 to keep us in good health. Some things we did in the past hurt us, and can never be repaired. Often the body will contain these abnormalities, and we could be quite unaware of the problem.

 

We are after all; animals. And if we fully become part of nature, and try our best to eliminate toxins, we will be doing as best we can.

Amazing how many Ex Special Forces reside on this forum and Thailand in general…….lol The rest of your post +1

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, coolcarer said:

Amazing how many Ex Special Forces reside on this forum and Thailand in general…….lol The rest of your post +1

Former SAS, Former Military, Retired LEO, Retired Fireman, etc....we all have stories and yes many on these forms. Never place Ex in front of a military, LEO, or Fireman, we are all former.......

[MrJ2U]

3 hours ago, moogradod said:

If I multiply all the factors that are applicable to me then I arrive at a Risk Factor of nearly 15. Should I now be still careful or is this just like the flu and I couldn't care less ? (Rhetorical Question)

Or maybe you have to be treated at a hospital and spend north of 500,000 baht in a week.

 

Insurance won't cover COVID costs if you are not vaccinated.

 

 

[moogradod]

3 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

Or maybe you have to be treated at a hospital and spend north of 500,000 baht in a week.

 

Insurance won't cover COVID costs if you are not vaccinated.

 

 

But I AM vaccinated. 4 times. You sound like you assume I were not. Now waiting for the right vaccine to fight the latest strains.

[retiree]

1 hour ago, owl sees all said:

The body is a wonderful bit of kit, that is working desperately 24/7 to keep us in good health.

I hate to be the one who points this out, but the same mutations that create more or less lethal Covid-19 variants also occur during human cell replication and repair -- every so often, a repair makes things worse   Fortunately, animals generally rely on DNA, which is a lot more robust than the RNA that powers viruses.   

 

In effect, strands of DNA are proofread, and double-proofread, and then checked again -- RNA isn't.  Nearly all of our errors are fixed, whereas many errors in virus RNA actually kill that bit of virus.   Still, errors occur; hence cancer, reduced immune response, and all the other cumulative burdens of aging.  

 

This is a good overview of all the problems that occur in people, and the reasons that even the healthiest / luckiest folks rarely go far past 90. 

https://www.age.mpg.de/healthy-ageing/how-and-why-do-we-age 

 

I should also note that some human mutations are helpful, including resistance to HIV-AIDS, and the ability to digest milk in adulthood (which is believed to have only spread in the past 10,000 years), see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation      more on mutation in general

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lactase_persistence    ability to digest lactose in adulthood in particular 

 

Unfortunately, humans can't mutate fast enough to stay ahead of rabies, typhoid, bubonic plague, and all the others, to say nothing of the myriad of diseases, including Covid-19, pneumonia, and the common cold, that affect the lungs and sometimes disable or kill us.  If surviving the disease confers immunity -- as with measles, or even smallpox -- great.  But that doesn't appear to be entirely the case for, say, the different causes of pneumonia*, or the several major variant causes of Covid-19.  

 

-- Retiree 

* The latest pneumonia vaccine, PPSV23, "contains polysaccharide antigen from 23 types of pneumococcal bacteria .... 25 µg of each antigen per dose"

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/pneumo/hcp/about-vaccine.html 

[moogradod]

2 hours ago, DavisH said:

 

I never cought Covid although many around me did. Maybe the vaccinations did really in my case prevent that I got it. For which I am grateful. I am not young at all and have a whole database of comorbidities. I expect that when I would catch it it might be desastrous (or maybe not - I have survived a lot of critical situations - but as they say a cat has (but) 7 lives). Will keep on boosting if it makes sense (=vaccine available for the latest strains).

Edited October 18, 2022 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed