Foreign tourism is Thailand’s only hope in 2023 as exports dim with hard times seen in key markets

[bamnutsak]

The "Sick Buffalo" becomes a national trope.

 

 

 

[GinBoy2]

This is dependent on the kingdom receiving 28 million visitors next year, 4 million of whom are expected to come from China, a country whose economy is currently in a state of crisis and where street protests have broken out this week across the mainland.

 

Has anyone let them know that China's external borders are still locked down, and given the recent events most likely will stay that way through 2023.

 

Xi ain't gonna let go of his zero covid policy, and I sincerely doubt he'll swallow his pride and import effective Western mRNA vaccines, so his only option is to keep the whole country locked down tighter than a drum.

 

So good luck with the Chinese tourism salvation!

[Foghorn]

33 minutes ago, newnative said:

     I don't think it's a case of favorites.  It's just the way things have been the past five years or so.  Tourist numbers from all countries were up in 2019 except for Singapore and Australia, down very  slightly.  The myth that western tourist numbers were declining in the years before covid is just that--a myth.   Also a myth that most of the Chinese visitors were on low-budget package tours--the majority were independent travelers.   Perception does not always equal reality.

     Numbers from some Asian countries, however, were increasing at a higher rate, and, in some cases such as China and India, a much higher rate as more Asian travelers could afford to travel and picked nearby Thailand to visit.  It's true their spending per tourist was somewhat less but the numbers were more.  Does a country with a big focus on tourism want just a few big spenders from the Middle East, who spent the most per visitor, or lots of tourists of all stripes from many countries to fill all the different types of hotel rooms?   

This is thailand , they want small number of big spenders ,  do you  not read the news on here ( joke , just incase your an American ) .

[nigelforbes]

As long as the current account remains in deficit, the Baht will stay weak, the story in the OP talks about USD 0.5 bill......that's not altogether bad news for expats.

[cjinchiangrai]

3 hours ago, LudwigK said:

Many of the "tourists" now are refugees (Ukraine,Russia). The next "tourist" refugee group will be china -as soon as they can leave the Country!!!!

Hardly. Most of the Chinese are pretty happy and the standard of living is rising widely. They have money to spend and would like to spend it here.

 

[hotchilli]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

With 2023 predicted to be a year of falling GDP in many countries including Europe and China, the kingdom is very much dependent on its critical foreign tourism industry to boost its economic performance and drive another year of similar growth to his year.

The truth at last..Thailand is dependent on tourism...

so lets cut-out the tourism = 15% of GDP

If the girls weren't working flat-out Thailand would be bankrupt.

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, HuskerDo2 said:

They need to revise their visa rules to more warmly welcome expats wanting to live there. These 90 day reporting rules and having to leave the country for a day and then returning make no sense. If they made more people feel "welcome" instead of making them feel like criminals, it would probably inject millions into the economy. It would be a win-win. 

Agreed.. at least for the long-term expats, who remain here and contribute to the economy every day

 

 

[ozimoron]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Drop the baht 20% increase export 50%

Link?

[nigelforbes]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Drop the baht 20% increase export 50%

You can only grow so much rice and make so many finished goods, selling them faster and cheaper doesn't solve the problem. a) a trained and capable labour force needs time to ramp up, b) imports will cost 50% more which will wipe out the export cost advantage, c) profit margins wont withstand a 50% loss of profit.

[HuskerDo2]

1 hour ago, Daithi85 said:

How is having to report your address every 3months difficult?bloody hell it's not the end of the world.People living here on retirement visas have it easy.

I ask you why is there a need to do such a thing (report every 3 months)? Simply asking folks to report when/if they ever move should be enough. Do you report daily to your doctor about your bowel movements or just when there is a major change? No need to call him/her daily now is there?

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, HuskerDo2 said:

I ask you why is there a need to do such a thing (report every 3 months)? Simply asking folks to report when/if they ever move should be enough. Do you report daily to your doctor about your bowel movements or just when there is a major change? No need to call him/her daily now is there?

It is not a significant impediment. I pay 200 to an agent to do the extension for me. I know I can also do it online but it's so easy.

[HuskerDo2]

Just now, ozimoron said:

It is not a significant impediment. I pay 200 to an agent to do the extension for me. I know I can also do it online but it's so easy.

Not a significant impediment but an impediment all the same and an unnecessary one at that.  

[HuskerDo2]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

The total value of all expat financial activity in Thailand has been estimated to be  equal to less than 4% of GDP, that includes all the 800K baht in the bank and average spending at that level. That means if every expat in the country left tomorrow, Thai GDP would shrink by only 4%. Adding new visa's aint going to do the trick, no matter how highly expats regard themselves and their spending power.

Don't fool yourself. If 4% is an accurate estimate it's substantial. 4% of the GDP of the US is $920 billion dollars. Equate that out to Thailand and it's nothing to sneeze at (even tho the politicians do with their idiotic way of fleecing the population).

[HuskerDo2]

1 hour ago, IamNoone88 said:

There are plenty of visa options to stay in Thailand and if you are leaving for a cross border trip every 90 days then that is your problem for not complying with one of the many options that are made available. As for the actual 90 day reporting, it takes 5 minutes and is never an issue. If the UK had 90 day reporting for immigrants it would not face the same mess that as it does today. As for foreign criminals in Thailand, well its been a magnet for some, big and small and that is precisely why there are at least some controls in place. If you follow the rules and comply with their regulations you can fortunately stay here and enjoy your life. We are guests no matter how we live here. 

You work for the Thai Chamber of Commerce? Nice! I hope they give you a raise.

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, HuskerDo2 said:

Don't fool yourself. If 4% is an accurate estimate it's substantial. 4% of the GDP of the US is $920 billion dollars. Equate that out to Thailand and it's nothing to sneeze at (even tho the politicians do with their idiotic way of fleecing the population).

Thailand's GDP is about USD 506 bill., 4% =20 bill., not even one month of Thai exports! Exactly what the US GDP has to do with the subject, only you will know.

[HuskerDo2]

Just now, nigelforbes said:

Thailand's GDP is about USD 506 bill., 4% =20 bill., not even one month of Thai exports! Exactly what the US GDP has to do with the subject, only you will know.

Yea, you're right of course. Twenty billion that the expats contribute to the economy is meaningless right? I suggest the expats pack up and prepare to leave and see how quickly the Thai govt begs them to stay.

[NoshowJones]

5 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

The results of a too expensive THB.... Thailand hotels are more expensive than hotels in Paris, some products are even more expensive than in the western countries.. just a bottle of water I paid in Spain 50 eurocent ( about 19 THB) and here in Thailand the same bottle at Tops 57 THB. With rising petrol costs tourists can find cheaper destinations with less restrictions such as alcohol sales, and non banned e cigarettes. The same is happening in the export. If the THB is too expensive people will go buy somewhere else, which they are already doing and the results will be known only in several months. It is a lack of management by the Thai Government, who doesn't see and don't take any action for these problems. Everything must be looking good to save face, but the reality is getting the country down. and see what is happening again.. Export in hard times... THB more expensive instead of cheaper.. 

   "It is a lack of management by the Thai Government, who doesn't see and don't take any action for these problems."

They are mostly soldiers, they only have about the same IQ's as the ordinary Somchai in the street. They would not have a clue how to take any action for these or any other problems.

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, HuskerDo2 said:

Yea, you're right of course. Twenty billion that the expats contribute to the economy is meaningless right? I suggest the expats pack up and prepare to leave and see how quickly the Thai govt begs them to stay.

No it's not meaningless, just over rated.

 

As for packing up and waiting to see if the government would come rushing after us begging us to stay, that's on par with the winning the El Gordo lottery.

[HuskerDo2]

Just now, nigelforbes said:

No it's not meaningless, just over rated.

 

As for packing up and waiting to see if the government would come rushing after us begging us to stay, that's on par with the winning the El Gordo lottery.

Thanks for sharing...... nothing of value.

[NoshowJones]

3 hours ago, Daithi85 said:

How is having to report your address every 3months difficult?bloody hell it's not the end of the world.People living here on retirement visas have it easy.

Nonsense. Retiree's did have it easy till about 15 years ago. not now.

[nigelforbes]

Just now, NoshowJones said:

Nonsense. Retiree's did have it easy till about 15 years ago. not now.

What changed? I'm retired and have been here for well over 20 years, things have become easier if anything. 90 day reports are online but everything else is the same.

[Daithi85]

2 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

Nonsense. Retiree's did have it easy till about 15 years ago. not now.

Whats so difficult now?If filling in a bit of paperwork is too difficult for you, pop down and get a visa agent to sort it all out.Easy.

[NoshowJones]

1 minute ago, nigelforbes said:

What changed? I'm retired and have been here for well over 20 years, things have become easier if anything. 90 day reports are online but everything else is the same.

Again nonsense. When I first came here to stay about 15 years ago, all it needed was a nice pleasant trip of about 200Ks to the  border for a stamp every 90 days, that was it.

[ThailandRyan]

42 minutes ago, HuskerDo2 said:

Not a significant impediment but an impediment all the same and an unnecessary one at that.  

However, it is a moneymaker apparently, so why would they do away with it. Agents split the cost with the IO.

[Xonax]

The strong Baht goes hand in hand with decreasing exports.

[mommysboy]

Don't understand: 3% is not bleak unless someone is telling porkies.

[HuskerDo2]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

However, it is a moneymaker apparently, so why would they do away with it. Agents split the cost with the IO.

They could simply add a fee to the cost of the Visa and leave people alone.

[KannikaP]

8 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Four years ago it was the strongest currency in the world

Four years ago it was 2018, and there were Bht 44 to the GBP, Now it is 42.75. USDish 38. now 38.

[newnative]

1 hour ago, Foghorn said:

This is thailand , they want small number of big spenders ,  do you  not read the news on here ( joke , just incase your an American ) .

      Yes, I read the news.  What 'they want' is irrelevant.  TAT and the tourist bureaucrats can come up with all sorts of wants and schemes to justify their jobs (look, we're working!!!)  but people will travel where they want to travel, if travel is allowed--and lots of people like to travel to nearby places.   USA get lots of Canadian visitors, Mexico gets lots of USA visitors.   Same for Europe and Asia--lots of nearby travel.  Thailand gets lots of nearby travel the same way Europe and North America does--it's just growing as people from nearby countries are increasingly able to afford to travel.  Likely this will continue when economic conditions improve. 

    The tourist bureaucrats may give lip service to wanting big spenders; they will welcome tourists of all economic strata, as they should.   Anybody with a lick of sense knows Thailand needs a wide variety of tourists to fill the wide variety of hotel rooms being offered--from hostels to 5-star hotels and everything in-between.   In December my partner and I will visit Spain and Portugal.  Did we look at  single thing by the Spain and Portugal travel departments?  No.  Is the Spain Tourist Board also looking for 'big spenders'?  I have no idea and, like I said,  not relevant.

[Walker88]

The # of tourists arriving has surprised me. In some quarters business is booming. While I do see more families and young couples, the vast majority of the folks I see are single males and groups of single males.

 

I wonder why.....NOT !

 

There was pent up demand for travel because of Covid, as well as pent up demand to engage in the biological imperative. Despite trying to pretend it doesn't exist, or being ashamed, Thailand still benefits from its reputation as a place where a man can come into his own, so to speak.

 

Try to get a table at a restaurant in the Soi Cowboy to Soi 4 corridor most nights before 9, and one is hard pressed. Hotels in that corridor are also doing well, and they run the gamut of budget to upscale. Rooms are not easy to get.

 

This does not translate across the entire Thai economy, but the boost from re-opening is clear to see, and bodes well for 2023 (if a business caters to the right demographic and market).

 

I'm waiting for the world to tumble into Recession, but it may not happen. I'm a perpetual Economic Cassandra---having made the vast majority of my wealth anticipating and trading bear markets---but I find myself slightly less pessimistic than normal. There seems to be a 'live for now, because another pandemic is sure to come' attitude that is keeping economies chugging along. At some point savings will be gone, or people will feel poorer become their major asset (home) may fall by 30-50%, but for now people are forgetting about tomorrow and living for today.

 

For my pessimism, I will fade China. The cat is out of the bag. The Covid restrictions have 1.3 billion people fed up. xi is going to have to deal both with a upset populace (protests now even not topics such as 'freedom of speech' and 'democracy'), as well as factions within the CP who want to dump xi. Thailand should not factor in much Chinese tourism, though it isn't that much of a per capita benefit anyway.

 

On the other hand, if there is social unrest in China, Thai production/exports might pick up some of the slack if China production falls. Thailand (or Vietnam) could also capture foreign investment that would be scared off by Chinese unrest.

 

May you live in interesting times is the old Chinese curse. So be it.