Inflation in Thailand/Ch Mai: how bad is it now & what's your forecast?

[cubism001]

A necessary question from a returning expat. It looks like the exchange rate is slightly higher than when I left. Are daily items like rent a lot higher? Less for your money?  Thanks.

[scubascuba3]

Today a 6 pack Lactasoy costs 62 baht in Big C up from 50 baht so 24% increase

[nigelforbes]

Inflation is 6.71%, per the IMF.

[cubism001]

Thank you. Hopefully other things won't jump that much.

[cubism001]

Thanks for your help.  I went on to read here. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/inflation-cpi

 

[Lacessit]

Prices of imported goods are up by 20-30%. AFAICT rents have not changed, if anything COVID pushed them down. Pork is dearer, fruit and vegetables in the day markets are the same.

Most supermarkets have across the board increases of 20% with locally produced packaged goods.

Gasoline is up from 25 baht to 35 baht/litre, which is still cheaper than many Western economies.

Too old to partake, however, I understand the cost of female company is still negotiable.

[Gottfrid]

It´s too expensive. Better not come. Leave it for me to handle, please

 

[nigelforbes]

54 minutes ago, cubism001 said:

Thanks for your help.  I went on to read here. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/inflation-cpi

 

I said earlier that it is 6.71%, the average CPI is 6.3% according to the IMF.

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/THA

[cubism001]

9 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

I said earlier that it is 6.71%, the average CPI is 6.3% according to the IMF.

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/THA

That's a great resource. Thanks.

[sidjameson]

Have restaurants, bars and coffee shops raised their price?

[bradiston]

7 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Prices of imported goods are up by 20-30%. AFAICT rents have not changed, if anything COVID pushed them down. Pork is dearer, fruit and vegetables in the day markets are the same.

Most supermarkets have across the board increases of 20% with locally produced packaged goods.

Gasoline is up from 25 baht to 35 baht/litre, which is still cheaper than many Western economies.

Too old to partake, however, I understand the cost of female company is still negotiable.

My one bed ground floor condo rent in Pratamnak area went from 5500 pm to 8000 pm, but that's mostly due to seasonal adjustments, influx of returners etc, plus post COVID catch up, which kept rents low everywhere, I believe. Golden era, COVID. We never had it so good! E20 is about 33 pl. Agree meat prices soaring. Fruit market prices fairly stable I think. Avocados still at 70-120 THB per kilo depending on quality. Strawberry season just round the corner. Shouldn't quote for this, but girls steady at 1200-3000 on Thai friendly. YMMV! What's in your shopping trolley? ????

Edited December 2, 2022 by bradiston

[LittleBear57]

I don't believe the statistics many things are up over 20%. bought potatoes from Makro this week 65 bht/kilo earlier this year it was 36. Other things up too. Pork has almost doubled over the past two years chicken up 40% too over that period. Noodles up Bread up milk up all above the "rate of inflation" and thats just what I've noticed. Started growing our own peppers now as they've gone up around 40% too.

[BangkokReady]

3 minutes ago, LittleBear57 said:

I don't believe the statistics many things are up over 20%.

Because things haven't gone up with inflation, it's more people finally being forced to put prices up after years and years of never increasing them.  So they've gone up at a higher rate.

[BangkokReady]

9 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

It´s too expensive. Better not come. Leave it for me to handle, please

 

Many a true word spoken in jest...

[Peterphuket]

I get the strong impression that the Makro is the champion in higher prices these days.

It started when ownership was taken over from the Dutch by the Thai of course.

A few months ago I bought ansjovis a big jar, 750 gr for 750 thb, last week I tried to buy the same jar but it was no longer there. Only a smaller one of 250 gr and watch out, for the same price 750 thb! 3 times more expansive!

[nigelforbes]

5 minutes ago, Peterphuket said:

I get the strong impression that the Makro is the champion in higher prices these days.

It started when ownership was taken over from the Dutch by the Thai of course.

A few months ago I bought ansjovis a big jar, 750 gr for 750 thb, last week I tried to buy the same jar but it was no longer there. Only a smaller one of 250 gr and watch out, for the same price 750 thb! 3 times more expansive!

All imported goods increased in price, this isn't a function of Makro it's a function of the USD/THB exchange rate. A few months ago you would have purchased stock that was bought at perhaps 32, 30 or even 29. Last week you probably bought stock that was purchased at 37 or 38.

[Bangkok Barry]

11 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Inflation is 6.71%, per the IMF.

But in the real world it is 50-100%. At least on many of the food items I've bought during 2022. Of course, it doesn't help when one company owns nearly all the food outlets in the country, around 84% I believe, something the monopolies office says isn't a monopoly.

[wwest5829]

Retired in Chiang Mai for over a decade. I bring in the required 65,000 baht a month from the U.S. (actually $2200.00 USD). Family of 3, have no problem spending the 65,000 baht each month but still comfortable. And I still save a bit monthly to a separate savings account.

[Lacessit]

4 hours ago, bradiston said:

My one bed ground floor condo rent in Pratamnak area went from 5500 pm to 8000 pm, but that's mostly due to seasonal adjustments, influx of returners etc, plus post COVID catch up, which kept rents low everywhere, I believe. Golden era, COVID. We never had it so good! E20 is about 33 pl. Agree meat prices soaring. Fruit market prices fairly stable I think. Avocados still at 70-120 THB per kilo depending on quality. Strawberry season just round the corner. Shouldn't quote for this, but girls steady at 1200-3000 on Thai friendly. YMMV! What's in your shopping trolley? ????

Rents have not changed in Chiang Rai, we don't get as many tourists or longer-term residents.

Avocados 60 baht/kilo, the season is ending and quality has gone downhill.

[nigelforbes]

5 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

But in the real world it is 50-100%. At least on many of the food items I've bought during 2022. Of course, it doesn't help when one company owns nearly all the food outlets in the country, around 84% I believe, something the monopolies office says isn't a monopoly.

You are a Westerner, you may buy 75 items out of the basket of 471 items that measure inflation and 150 that are not. The fact that your 100 items have increased in price doesn't mean inflation for everyone in the entire country is the same as yours.

[Peterphuket]

12 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

All imported goods increased in price, this isn't a function of Makro it's a function of the USD/THB exchange rate. A few months ago you would have purchased stock that was bought at perhaps 32, 30 or even 29. Last week you probably bought stock that was purchased at 37 or 38.

I agree and am aware of the higher exchange rate and higher prices in particular in Europe but...... not 3 times more expansive.

[Aussieroaming]

Prices seem to have gone up across the board and most of them much higher than the BS official inflation rate. Prices of rental properties will start rising as more Russians keep coming to hide out. That has already happened in the near Russian ex soviet countries like Georgia and Kazakhstan, where Russian migration has caused a rental housing shortage. 

[Bangkok Barry]

9 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

16 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

But in the real world it is 50-100%. At least on many of the food items I've bought during 2022. Of course, it doesn't help when one company owns nearly all the food outlets in the country, around 84% I believe, something the monopolies office says isn't a monopoly.

You are a Westerner, you may buy 75 items out of the basket of 471 items that measure inflation and 150 that are not. The fact that your 100 items have increased in price doesn't mean inflation for everyone in the entire country is the same as yours.

What is being a Westerner got to do with anything? The goods I've bought and seen prices rise by up to 100% include basic Thai foods such as pork and chicken. I really don't care about a system that picks and chooses what items are used to 'measure inflation' and which are not. That makes any measurement completely pointless. All I know and care about is that many basic foods have increased massively in price. That is the bottom line.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Bangkok Barry

[nigelforbes]

6 minutes ago, Peterphuket said:

I agree and am aware of the higher exchange rate and higher prices in particular in Europe but...... not 3 times more expansive.

But the supplier in Europe will have increased their prices also because of inflation, as will the shipper. Makro is the last in the line, before you!

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

What is being a Westerner got to do with anything? The goods I've bought and seen prices rise by up to 100% include basic Thai foods such as pork and chicken. I really don't care about a system that picks and chooses what items are used to 'measure inflation' and which are not. That makes any measurement completely pointless. All I know and care about is that many basic foods have increased massively in price. That is the bottom line.

Inflation in every country is measured the same way, by recording the prices of the SAME few hundred items and measuring the difference. Those several hundred items include things that everyone here buys, it doesn't include some of the things that many Westerners buy. That's the way the system works, regardless of whether you care or not.

[Lacessit]

8 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

What is being a Westerner got to do with anything? The goods I've bought and seen prices rise by up to 100% include basic Thai foods such as pork and chicken. I really don't care about a system that picks and chooses what items are used to 'measure inflation' and which are not. That makes any measurement completely pointless. All I know and care about is that many basic foods have increased massively in price. That is the bottom line.

Without getting into an argument re inflation measures, I would put part of the inflation you mention down to fuel costs.

There are quite a few basic foodstuffs in Chiang Rai that have barely moved in price. Chicken is one of them.

IMO the difference is Chiang Rai grows a lot of food locally, Bangkok can't.

[Classic Ray]

39 minutes ago, Peterphuket said:

I get the strong impression that the Makro is the champion in higher prices these days.

It started when ownership was taken over from the Dutch by the Thai of course.

A few months ago I bought ansjovis a big jar, 750 gr for 750 thb, last week I tried to buy the same jar but it was no longer there. Only a smaller one of 250 gr and watch out, for the same price 750 thb! 3 times more expansive!

My kids like packet jok from a famous international supplier, but made in Thailand.

 

The packet size reduced from 55g to 50g, accompanied by a price increase.

 

Imported box wine from Aus has remained same price (albeit still much more expensive since stop of fruit wine exemption) but alcohol content has dropped from 14% to 10%.
 

So watch for these tricks as well as raising prices for reducing value.

[Bangkok Barry]

12 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Without getting into an argument re inflation measures, I would put part of the inflation you mention down to fuel costs.

There are quite a few basic foodstuffs in Chiang Rai that have barely moved in price. Chicken is one of them.

IMO the difference is Chiang Rai grows a lot of food locally, Bangkok can't.

I'm not in Bangkok. Moved from there years ago, but didn't change my moniker. I'm in Kalasin. I have no idea where the near monopoly Lotus's and Big C source from. But in my area prices of pork and chicken rose this year by at the very least 50%. My potatoes increased from 28 to, currently, 49 and rising.

As I've said elsewhere on this thread, choosing some items and not others to base inflation on is completely pointless. ie Milk has gone up 3% and we'll include that. Pork has gone up 50% but we'll ignore that. Ridiculous.

[Bangkok Barry]

27 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Inflation in every country is measured the same way, by recording the prices of the SAME few hundred items and measuring the difference. Those several hundred items include things that everyone here buys, it doesn't include some of the things that many Westerners buy. That's the way the system works, regardless of whether you care or not.

Choosing some items and not others to base inflation on is completely pointless. ie Milk has gone up 3% and we'll include that. Pork has gone up 50% but we'll ignore that. Ridiculous. Even if that's the way it's done in every country.

[nigelforbes]

7 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Choosing some items and not others to base inflation on is completely pointless. ie Milk has gone up 3% and we'll include that. Pork has gone up 50% but we'll ignore that. Ridiculous. Even if that's the way it's done in every country.

What is ridiculous is thinking that the price of every item sold every month, mist be measured, before the rate of inflation can be understood.