I hope Thailand is heading there

[bernard75]

Quote

Cannabis cultivators across the U.S. are confronting plummeting wholesale prices and tighter profit margins. Operators in Pennsylvania say flower prices have fallen from around $4,000 a pound to around $3,000, on average, and prices in the more mature markets of California, Oregon and Colorado have experienced extreme volatility. Prices in those states are averaging around $700 per pound but of course, that’s an average. There are whispers that prices are as low as $150, revealing how bad the situation really is.

https://cannabisindustryjournal.com/column/addressing-cannabis-price-compression-with-science/

[BritManToo]

I'm not keen on factory farming.

As for prices, Lao brick is now around 3000bht/Kg ($90), hardly expensive.

[bernard75]

Wow, half as expensive for 1/10 of the potency at least.

You are not seriously comparing brickweed to US grown flower.

[bamnutsak]

Those prices are wholesale, but retail prices are also falling preciptiously throughout the U.S. And people forget to add on the extra taxes, which at the retail PoS amount to ~ 20%.

 

In some cases the legal product is actually less expensive than the black/grey-market product.

 

In my home state...

 

https://masscannabiscontrol.com/open-data/sales-and-product-distribution/

 

https://www.boston.com/news/business/2022/12/13/cannabis-prices-recreational-massachusetts-plummet-dispensary-owners-future/?s_campaign=Email:BComToday&SUBID=05bc500d4b&AUDID=24232545

 

 

Here, in Thailand, there is no export market, so domestic markets only. And the only variables are tourist numbers/usage, and import volumes. I think it's safe to say that imports will decrease somewhat, although that could remain a niche market for tourists, and domestic wholesale and retail prices will decrease. The domestic market (Thais and other long-stayers) is somewhat fixed unless they/we increase consumption per capita, and production, based on grow-light and seed sales, and photos we've seen of massive outdoor grows, is growing rapidly.

 

Unless harvests (supply) are destroyed, prices will crater. You already see sales promotions of  up to 50% for older stocks. This assumes no extract products > 0.2% are allowed. If they are (vapes, edibles, concentrates, etc.) then any flower price drop might be somewhat ameliorated?

 

Can't speak to the brick/dirt-weed but think that market will be wiped out. I'm shocked there is even a market for this now. Hardly worth the gas for the boat to make the trip across the Mekong?

 

So yes, Thailand is "heading there".

[Dogmatix]

On 12/17/2022 at 10:43 AM, bamnutsak said:

Those prices are wholesale, but retail prices are also falling preciptiously throughout the U.S. And people forget to add on the extra taxes, which at the retail PoS amount to ~ 20%.

 

In some cases the legal product is actually less expensive than the black/grey-market product.

 

In my home state...

 

https://masscannabiscontrol.com/open-data/sales-and-product-distribution/

 

https://www.boston.com/news/business/2022/12/13/cannabis-prices-recreational-massachusetts-plummet-dispensary-owners-future/?s_campaign=Email:BComToday&SUBID=05bc500d4b&AUDID=24232545

 

 

Here, in Thailand, there is no export market, so domestic markets only. And the only variables are tourist numbers/usage, and import volumes. I think it's safe to say that imports will decrease somewhat, although that could remain a niche market for tourists, and domestic wholesale and retail prices will decrease. The domestic market (Thais and other long-stayers) is somewhat fixed unless they/we increase consumption per capita, and production, based on grow-light and seed sales, and photos we've seen of massive outdoor grows, is growing rapidly.

 

Unless harvests (supply) are destroyed, prices will crater. You already see sales promotions of  up to 50% for older stocks. This assumes no extract products > 0.2% are allowed. If they are (vapes, edibles, concentrates, etc.) then any flower price drop might be somewhat ameliorated?

 

Can't speak to the brick/dirt-weed but think that market will be wiped out. I'm shocked there is even a market for this now. Hardly worth the gas for the boat to make the trip across the Mekong?

 

So yes, Thailand is "heading there".

I am told that well connected Thai investors are involved in the trade in Laos and that they are not only growing brick weed there but high grade  strains.  I am unable to verify this but it stands to reason that the investors are Thai and that, if they can grow brick weed there, they can grow other strains too.  Even though it is still illegal in Laos, Thais may like the anonymity of having large plantations there and land rental and production cost is obviously less than in Thailand. 

 

[BritManToo]

On 12/17/2022 at 8:43 AM, bernard75 said:

Wow, half as expensive for 1/10 of the potency at least.

You are not seriously comparing brickweed to US grown flower.

Lao brick is around 8%, so the stronger hybrids should be 2x-3x the price of the brick.