Will the Rouble Crash?

[Dogsredrocket]

Are the experts predicting a crash in the Rouble any time soon? 

 

I'm considering moving out of Phuket because of the horde. I am aware of others considering the same. It is a shame because I use facilities in Phuket that are not in other provinces or at least not to the same standard.

 

Is it too much to hope for that the rouble will crash and that the Blyats and Svetlanas will just go away? 

[Goblins Reef]

I very much doubt the Russians in Phuket, or anyone else, are using the Ruble to finance their stay. The Thai banks wont accept rubles, perhaps some money changers or black marketers might but most Russians will be using Dollars, stashed overseas I would imagine.

[Dogsredrocket]

1 minute ago, Goblins Reef said:

I very much doubt the Russians in Phuket, or anyone else, are using the Ruble to finance their stay. The Thai banks wont accept rubles, perhaps some money changers or black marketers might but most Russians will be using Dollars, stashed overseas I would imagine.

But don't most expats not employed here get paid in their home currency first and then transfer it to Baht? I guess in their case they go Rouble to dollar and dollar to Baht but if the rouble tanks they are still in trouble right? Or do you think most Russians have large lump sumps in USD?

[nigelforbes]

The following link explains part of the picture.

 

https://globalvoices.org/2022/11/17/international-money-transfer-routes-are-evaporating-for-russians/

 

EDIT to add a second explanatory link, that is better:

 

https://slate.com/technology/2022/03/russia-banking-sanctions-telegram.html

Edited February 23, 2023 by nigelforbes

[timendres]

Given that much of the value of the Rouble is determined by Russia's vast energy reserves, and Russia's (so far) ability to continue selling said energy, I do not think the Rouble will "crash". But it does have serious risk if the war goes badly for Russia. Difficult call to make, but as others have suggested, likely most of the Russians able to stay in Thailand at the moment are not worried about their Rouble exposure.

[nigelforbes]

8 minutes ago, timendres said:

Given that much of the value of the Rouble is determined by Russia's vast energy reserves, and Russia's (so far) ability to continue selling said energy, I do not think the Rouble will "crash". But it does have serious risk if the war goes badly for Russia. Difficult call to make, but as others have suggested, likely most of the Russians able to stay in Thailand at the moment are not worried about their Rouble exposure.

I agree. In 2021, Thailand imported around USD 800 mill. of oil from Russia, it was the country's fastest growing import source of oil. As sanction began to bite, the direct supply of oil stopped. PTT and it's subsidiaries may continue to buy indirectly since most of the Russian supply was diverted towards China who appears to be a willing buyer.. 

[Dogsredrocket]

22 minutes ago, timendres said:

Given that much of the value of the Rouble is determined by Russia's vast energy reserves, and Russia's (so far) ability to continue selling said energy, I do not think the Rouble will "crash". But it does have serious risk if the war goes badly for Russia. Difficult call to make, but as others have suggested, likely most of the Russians able to stay in Thailand at the moment are not worried about their Rouble exposure.

I don't follow the war too closely but anything I have seen indicates that Russia is really not doing well but still unlikely to give up. I don't see how this doesn't go bad for them.

 

I would have thought Thailand allowing Russian travel and immigration when Vlad is trying to conscript people wouldn't have gone too well but apparently not. Maybe Vlad well get serious with some of his threats for the draft dodgers.

[Seppius]

29 minutes ago, Dogsredrocket said:

I don't follow the war too closely but anything I have seen indicates that Russia is really not doing well but still unlikely to give up. I don't see how this doesn't go bad for them.

 

I would have thought Thailand allowing Russian travel and immigration when Vlad is trying to conscript people wouldn't have gone too well but apparently not. Maybe Vlad well get serious with some of his threats for the draft dodgers.

Makes you wonder what Thailand would do about Chinese visitor's political direction, if they did in fact invade Taiwan?, probably nothing

[Dogsredrocket]

1 hour ago, Seppius said:

Makes you wonder what Thailand would do about Chinese visitor's political direction, if they did in fact invade Taiwan?, probably nothing

Probably. But if they can take Taiwan I don't see why they wouldn't be able to take Thailand.

[London Lowf]

3 hours ago, Dogsredrocket said:

I use facilities in Phuket that are not in other provinces or at least not to the same standard.

Sounds to me like you are cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

If you dislike Russians so much then can't you just ignore them or move to another area? I've been here almost continually since October and I have never had an issue with them. Maybe that's because I'm based in Kamala, but I do get around the island quite a bit.

 

 

[3NUMBAS]

sanctions are grinding away at the rouble they seem to be propping up with help from china and  india and iran but gradully this    year  it could collapse ..few exports and shrinking imports

 

most oligarks have fled to dubai and other bolt holes and are avoiding sanctions somehow but their wealth is shrinking

we wait to see how it pans out

[JoseThailand]

Russian ruble as strong as ever thanks to the constant influx of oil & gas money.

[3NUMBAS]

money from EU for gas and oil is no more ,it has to be shippped by boat to everywhere except EU ,china buys lots

[JoseThailand]

Btw

4 hours ago, Dogsredrocket said:

I'm considering moving out of Phuket because of the horde. I am aware of others considering the same.

Why don't you like them? They're mostly younger couples or families fleeing the war. They are well educated and well payed. They represent the best stratum of the Russian society. You haven't seen real orcs.

[Dogsredrocket]

9 minutes ago, JoseThailand said:

Btw

Why don't you like them? They're mostly younger couples or families fleeing the war. They are well educated and well payed. They represent the best stratum of the Russian society. You haven't seen real orcs.

Doubtful. Of the horde in my complex some seem to have money but many seem to battle. Plenty of them seem to be reliant on walking, cycling or motorcycling to get around. Well off people have the cash to buy cars, particularly in a tropical climate with a monsoon season. Of the cars I have seen few are high end but most are budget models. There have also been claims of Russian "touts" now. People trying to sling ping pong shows don't strike me as well educated. There appear to be a range of low, middle and high income earners which makes perfect sense given the situation.

[KhunLA]

No, why would it.  It's holding steady, considering the west's attempt to destroy it, which as with everything else, has failed miserably.

 

Holding fine against the THB & CNY on a 5 yr chart, and even against the USD.

[Dogsredrocket]

10 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

No, why would it.  It's holding steady, considering the west's attempt to destroy it, which as with everything else, has failed miserably.

 

Holding fine against the THB & CNY on a 5 yr chart, and even against the USD.

I'm no expert. Something about blowing up women and children on a mad mans whim tells me that the Russian economy probably deserves to tank hard. For it to do otherwise is rather telling of mans nature.

[Adumbration]

I know two seperate families (Farang with Thai wife) in Rawai who are now moving to Isaan.  Both families for the same reason...Phuket is no longer liveable while the Russians are there.  One of these guys...and old friend of mine from back home is off to Nakon Nowhere next week.

[Dogsredrocket]

2 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

I know two seperate families (Farang with Thai wife) in Rawai who are now moving to Isaan.  Both families for the same reason...Phuket is no longer liveable while the Russians are there.  One of these guys...and old friend of mine from back home is off to Nakon Nowhere next week.

It is a shame a lot of people try to de rail the conversation with suggestions of racism (maybe not this thread but heaps of others). I honestly find them to be rude, obnoxious and more often than not half naked. The middle class Thais I speak to despise them. In the past when I saw a new person or family move in I used to introduce myself and try to make small talk but it isn't honestly welcome. They don't seem to integrate at all and that will be a massive issue in the future. I feel like I am living in some kind of Russian colony.

[sammieuk1]

The scramble for tourist Baht will end very badly in this case for sure ????

[Adumbration]

1 hour ago, JoseThailand said:

Btw

Why don't you like them? They're mostly younger couples or families fleeing the war. They are well educated and well payed. They represent the best stratum of the Russian society. You haven't seen real orcs.

There are a few decent families among them.  But money is running out fast and so is the validity of their visas.  But there are plenty of Gopniks among them as well.  I was in my local branch of KBank today and two young Russian men covered in tatts were trying to exchange a single $10 US note.  The bank refused and the Igor and his mate left in a huff.

[Jingthing]

I expect the rubble to be down at least 25 percent this year. It's being artificially propped up right now and that isn't sustainable. The energy they sell is deeply discounted.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Jingthing

[ozimoron]

4 hours ago, Dogsredrocket said:

I don't follow the war too closely but anything I have seen indicates that Russia is really not doing well but still unlikely to give up. I don't see how this doesn't go bad for them.

 

I would have thought Thailand allowing Russian travel and immigration when Vlad is trying to conscript people wouldn't have gone too well but apparently not. Maybe Vlad well get serious with some of his threats for the draft dodgers.

There's political risk in wealthy Muscovites being drafted to fight Ukraine. Russia will continue to tolerate that demographic leaving.

[still kicking]

1 hour ago, JoseThailand said:

Btw

Why don't you like them? They're mostly younger couples or families fleeing the war. They are well educated and well payed. They represent the best stratum of the Russian society. You haven't seen real orcs.

I visit Pattaya very often and there is many Russians I never had any issues with them they are more behaved than Germans or Brits 

[JoseThailand]

13 minutes ago, still kicking said:

I visit Pattaya very often and there is many Russians I never had any issues with them they are more behaved than Germans or Brits 

Yeah, I find the Chinese far more annoying and ill-mannered.

[Dogsredrocket]

12 hours ago, JoseThailand said:

Yeah, I find the Chinese far more annoying and ill-mannered.

I haven't seen many yet. Almost non existent compared to Russians in Phuket. I believe there are more independent travellers these days opposed to massive group tours. I think when they are by themselves or in much smaller groups they are less inclined to act up.

[3NUMBAS]

the future of vlad

 

 

[rabiedabruce]

No. Despite yet another round of the policeman of the world and their lackeys sanctions, the Russian economy is doing very well. In fact, better than almost everywhere else.

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, rabiedabruce said:

No. Despite yet another round of the policeman of the world and their lackeys sanctions, the Russian economy is doing very well. In fact, better than almost everywhere else.

Ruble not crashing? Doing well?

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1M

 

RBL THB chart. select 1 month in time scales.

 

https://www.investing.com/currencies/rub-thb-advanced-chart

Edited February 26, 2023 by ozimoron

[rabiedabruce]

On 2/23/2023 at 9:20 PM, ozimoron said:

There's political risk in wealthy Muscovites being drafted to fight Ukraine. Russia will continue to tolerate that demographic leaving.

Odd how there's a dearth of war footage/photographs don't ya think?