Pheu Thai Landslide Win Depends On 7 ‘Strategic’ Provinces: Academic

[webfact]

 

By Thai Newsroom Reporters

 

WHETHER THE PHEU THAI will eventually score a landslide victory and become core of a government after the May 14 general election could probably depend on the results of constituency-based contests in seven “strategic” provinces, said Thammasat University political scientist Prajak Kongkirati.

 

The contests between the Pheu Thai on one end of the country’s political spectrum and a few other camps on the other end are going to be tough and unrelenting in constituency-based mode covering the seven “strategic” provinces, Prajak confirmed.

 

Known for being on one end is the Pheu Thai fiercely contesting those on the other end, including the Palang Pracharath, Bhumjaithai and Ruam Thai Sang Chart, in the “strategic” provinces’ constituencies where victories or defeats could probably determine the future of the party where deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is invariably viewed as de facto party boss.

 

Full story: https://thainewsroom.com/2023/04/28/pheu-thai-landslide-win-depends-on-7-strategic-provinces-academic/

 

-- © Copyright  THAI NEWSROOM 2023-04-29

 

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[ourmanflint]

It's a choice between Move Forward Party & the Move Backward Party of Thaksin

[KhaoNiaw]

17 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

It's a choice between Move Forward Party & the Move Backward Party of Thaksin

Move Forward has no chance of getting anywhere near the number of seats that Pheu Thai will. What might be interesting is if Pheu Thai didn't get their landslide but could form a clear two-party majority with Palang Pracharath. Would PT then accept Prawit as PM as the price for forming the government? Maybe they would offer Srettha as PM candidate rather than Thaksin's daughter, with Prawit to help swing the senators?

[RichardColeman]

Dunno who let the '7's into our chok chai village but there are posters and pamphlets in all the letter boxes now

[dinsdale]

"The Pheu Thai landslide dreams could possibly fizzle out in a nightmarish fiasco since most, if not all, of the 250 senators are invariably believed to never cast a yea vote for any contestant for prime minister named by this particular party, according to the Thammasat academic.

The anti-Thaksin senators, all of whom had been handpicked by Prawit and Prayut following the 2014 coup, are only anticipated to either vote for the Palang Pracharath leader or the caretaker prime minister or bluntly abstain from voting, thus aborting the Pheu Thai’s bid for elected premiership."

 

And there you have it. The reason for a people's revolution, followed by a coup.

Edited April 29, 2023 by dinsdale

[billd766]

What does a "political scientist" actually do for a living that makes him think that he knows more than anybody else?

 

I have just looked political scientist up in Wikipedia which has lots of big words but says very little, and most of that is meaningless.

[hotchilli]

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

It's a choice between Move Forward Party & the Move Backward Party of Thaksin

Agreed, seems the vote will decide between these two parties.

The others are all on the slide.

Prayut is past his sell bt date, Prawit is out of ideas, Anutin is rocking the boat too much.

 

[Red Forever]

2 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

It's a choice between Move Forward Party & the Move Backward Party of Thaksin

Many Thais would love to move "Backward" to a party of Thaksin compared to what they've suffered over the past 9 years.

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

What does a "political scientist" actually do for a living that makes him think that he knows more than anybody else?

 

I have just looked political scientist up in Wikipedia which has lots of big words but says very little, and most of that is meaningless.

Political science is a subject of study at university. It has different streams. Personally my major was in political philosophy/political theory. I found it very difficult but very interesting but I am educated in the political sciences. Big words might be big words for you that mean nothing but for others not so. Dr. Prajak Kongkirati PhD. is an Associate Professor in the Faculty of Political Sciences at Thammasat University. He attained his PhD from the Australian Nationlal University. This is a prestigious university. This means he's very smart and knows more about politics in Thailand than you, I or anyone else on this forum. 

Edited April 29, 2023 by dinsdale

[billd766]

38 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Political science is a subject of study at university. It has different streams. Personally my major was in political philosophy/political theory. I found it very difficult but very interesting but I am educated in the political sciences. Big words might be big words for you that mean nothing but for others not so. Dr. Prajak Kongkirati PhD. is an Associate Professor in the Faculty of Political Sciences at Thammasat University. He attained his PhD from the Australian Nationlal University. This is a prestigious university. This means he's very smart and knows more about politics in Thailand than you, I or anyone else on this forum. 

He most probably does know more about politics in Thailand than I do, but that doesn't make him that smart if that is all he know and does.

 

I know far more about building mobile phone sites worldwide than he does but that doesn't make me smarter than him.

 

He has one voice and one vote where I have none but if you asked the average Thai voter who he is and what he does, in well over 90% of the answers will just get you a blank look.

[dinsdale]

2 minutes ago, billd766 said:

He most probably does know more about politics in Thailand than I do, but that doesn't make him that smart if that is all he know and does.

 

I know far more about building mobile phone sites worldwide than he does but that doesn't make me smarter than him.

 

He has one voice and one vote where I have none but if you asked the average Thai voter who he is and what he does, in well over 90% of the answers will just get you a blank look.

Thread is about Thai politics and the upcoming election.

You asked ....

 

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

What does a "political scientist" actually do for a living that makes him think that he knows more than anybody else?

 

I have just looked political scientist up in Wikipedia which has lots of big words but says very little, and most of that is meaningless.

I answered.

 

The aricle is simply stating an educated opinion from someone with a PhD. two M.A.s and a B.A. with honours. Maybe this means nothing to you but to me shows his opinion should at the very least be considered with respect. 

 Associate Professor Dr.Prajak Kongkirati

Education:         Courses Taught:   Research Interests:	Ph.D., Department of Political and Social Change, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia M.A. Political Science Department, University of Wisconsin-Madison M.A. History, Liberal Arts (excellent thesis award), Thammasat University B.A. Political Science (second class honors), Thammasat University PO 221 Political Parties, Interest Groups and Elections PO 311 Politics of the People’s Movements PO 320 Comparative Government and Politics PO 429 Seminar on Political Leadership Southeast Asian politics Thai history and politics Democratization and civil society State-society relations Electoral politics Political violence and ethnic conflict Human rights Social movements Citizenship and nationalism

 

 

[zzaa09]

4 hours ago, billd766 said:

What does a "political scientist" actually do for a living that makes him think that he knows more than anybody else?

 

I have just looked political scientist up in Wikipedia which has lots of big words but says very little, and most of that is meaningless.

Always trust the experts. 

Superior in every manner.

[zzaa09]

3 hours ago, Red Forever said:

Many Thais would love to move "Backward" to a party of Thaksin compared to what they've suffered over the past 9 years.

How have they suffered....?

[sidneybear]

The Pheu Thai oligopoly might buy the most votes, but they won't stick around for long. 

[asf6]

Has anybody watched any of the recent political debates for the election? You can find some on Youtube and Tiktok. There's one running now live on the Thai PBS Tiktok channel. 

 

 

 

.

Edited April 29, 2023 by asf6

[ripstanley]

Do not forget that the PM is voted for by the elected members and the members of the senate. The senate are appointed by the military and number 250. In 2019 the military appointed senators all voter for the present PM. It is a great advantage to start with 250 votes in your corner..

[zzaa09]

So.......after their victorious landslide claim, what changes that benefit the commons will come about?

 

 

[Toolong]

6 hours ago, Red Forever said:

Many Thais would love to move "Backward" to a party of Thaksin compared to what they've suffered over the past 9 years.

I'm with you there, Red. ????

[MrJ2U]

8 hours ago, dinsdale said:

"The Pheu Thai landslide dreams could possibly fizzle out in a nightmarish fiasco since most, if not all, of the 250 senators are invariably believed to never cast a yea vote for any contestant for prime minister named by this particular party, according to the Thammasat academic.

The anti-Thaksin senators, all of whom had been handpicked by Prawit and Prayut following the 2014 coup, are only anticipated to either vote for the Palang Pracharath leader or the caretaker prime minister or bluntly abstain from voting, thus aborting the Pheu Thai’s bid for elected premiership."

 

And there you have it. The reason for a people's revolution, followed by a coup.

It's crazy that there's still those 250 unelected "senators".  

 

Ugly. 

[sidneybear]

Thaksin's lot will be kicked out again. It's a cyclical thing.

[zzaa09]

10 hours ago, sidneybear said:

The Pheu Thai oligopoly might buy the most votes, but they won't stick around for long. 

More than curious, when their new government is formed, to see how they fare to benefit the commons........or will we witness more of the same shenanigans. 

[sidneybear]

2 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

More than curious, when their new government is formed, to see how they fare to benefit the commons........or will we witness more of the same shenanigans. 

Stock up on popcorn. 

[herfiehandbag]

16 hours ago, billd766 said:

He most probably does know more about politics in Thailand than I do, but that doesn't make him that smart if that is all he know and does.

 

I know far more about building mobile phone sites worldwide than he does but that doesn't make me smarter than him.

 

He has one voice and one vote where I have none but if you asked the average Thai voter who he is and what he does, in well over 90% of the answers will just get you a blank look.

Mind you, if he knew how to mend their mobile phones he would be an absolute shoe in!????

[herfiehandbag]

Campaigning off the back of a Tuk Tuk!

Does that make him a man of the people?

[Red Forever]

20 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

How have they suffered....?

Let's just with the theft of their democracy .

[dinsdale]

Who ever gets in they are in it for themselves. Problem is the people's choice may not end up be the people's choice. This is what this article is about. Sad some don't see this. We'll have to wait and see but there's a chance that the will of people of Thailand will once again be corrupted. I hate to say this but in a way I would like to see this corrupted political system see Prayut returned as PM. This may be the only way forward for Thailand not by this fool being voted back in by his paid off lackies but as the catalyst for a people's revolution. What will the army do and what will those who cannot be commented upon do? Times have changed. Will Thailand change with it?

Fairly sure I'll get the old sad, laughing, confused emojis but go a head. Pitty it's been anonymised.

Edited April 30, 2023 by dinsdale

[zzaa09]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Who ever gets in they are in it for themselves. Problem is the people's choice may not end up be the people's choice. This is what this article is about. Sad some don't see this. We'll have to wait and see but there's a chance that the will of people of Thailand will once again be corrupted. I hate to say this but in a way I would like to see this corrupted political system see Prayut returned as PM. This may be the only way forward for Thailand not by this fool being voted back in by his paid off lackies but as the catalyst for a people's revolution. What will the army do and what will those who cannot be commented upon do? Times have changed. Will Thailand change with it?

Fairly sure I'll get the old sad, laughing, confused emojis but go a head. Pitty it's been anonymised.

When all is said and done, it will be guaranteed that the sound status quo will remain the same....yet, perhaps with a surface tweak of difference - nothing significant. 

 

Politicians. Politics. Same club. 

Not about the commons [in which they serve]. It's about themselves. 

[connda]

And here I thought it had to do with how much public money the politicians are promising to dole out to the commoners if only the electorate will put them into office.  "We'll open up the Thai treasuries and shower the little people with their own money."

Then Inflation hits and the chickens come home to roost.  And the Thai printing presses go Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

[dinsdale]

44 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

When all is said and done, it will be guaranteed that the sound status quo will remain the same....yet, perhaps with a surface tweak of difference - nothing significant. 

 

Politicians. Politics. Same club. 

Not about the commons [in which they serve]. It's about themselves. 

 

Edited April 30, 2023 by dinsdale

[dinsdale]

I hope for change in Thailand but change in Thailand will only occur through violence. It's sad but the elite and the generals will not have their power and greed diminished. Let's see what happens. My bet is still on Prayut becoming PM, a people's uprising and a coup. I hope not but absolutely no one has or will rule this out. TIT? Maybe TWT? Third World Thailand. The 'democratic' country that has coups and is corrupt top to bottom.