To US Expats in Thailand only. It's about your wallet.

[swissie]

To start: The American "Billion" consists only of 1000 millions. That makes it a "milliard" not a "Billion".

To put this in an internationally understandable context, the following statistics are in "Milliards".

- Public dept of the US is at 30'000 milliards. (thirtythousand milliards).
- Interest payment of this dept costs 45 milliards PER MONTH.

Ever since WW2 the US has lived "beyond their means", the rest of the world bought US treasury bills/bonds financing it. (Reserve currency, what can go wrong?)
US dept is growing faster than economic growth. Is this going to end up well?

What does it all mean for US $ expats? In short and simplyfied: Over time you will get less THB for your US $. Ask a British expat what happened to his British £ since 1965.
Is there any wonder that some folks are wondering what the next "world-currency" will be?
Statistical source "Neue Zürcher Zeitung".
----------------------
PS: The rest of the world is wondering how come that the "most important country in the western world", (upon next presidential election) only has the choice  between an very old man and a certified moron. This is something that the rest of the world does simply not understand. What do US expats in Thailand think about this?

 

[KhunLA]

And yet, it has remained stable against the THB @ 30-35 for the past 20 years.

 

The world is always coming to an end, and yet ... still here and nothing has changed.

 

Your PS simply exposes your anti Yank prejudice, without looking within, at your silly monarchy and your own choice of PMs.  Losing all credibility to an almost valid post.

 

You want to be the pot or the kettle, either, you may want to not throw stones around that glass house.

[CrunchWrapSupreme]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

And yet, it has remained stable against the THB @ 30-35 for the past 20 years.

 

The world is always coming to an end, and yet ... still here and nothing has changed.

 

Your PS simply exposes your anti Yank prejudice, without looking within, at your silly monarchy and your own choice of PMs.  Losing all credibility to an almost valid post.

 

You want to be the pot or the kettle, either, you may want to not throw stones around that glass house.

I reckon he had a bad barstool exchange with an American, and is now venting or trying to redeem himself here. I know because I've been there too many times.

 

OTOH, I've never had a bad time with an Australian. Talked about sports, women, and even after my refusal upon several occasions, have insisted they pay for my drink. ????????

[bignok]

Just print more. Just a game.

[bignok]

2 hours ago, swissie said:

only has the choice  between an very old man and a certified moron

Bad elsewhere too. Name 2 good leaders anywhere.

[bignok]

2 hours ago, swissie said:

there any wonder that some folks are wondering what the next "world-currency" will be?

Hence support for gold and Bitcoin.

[swissie]

2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

And yet, it has remained stable against the THB @ 30-35 for the past 20 years.

 

The world is always coming to an end, and yet ... still here and nothing has changed.

 

Your PS simply exposes your anti Yank prejudice, without looking within, at your silly monarchy and your own choice of PMs.  Losing all credibility to an almost valid post.

 

You want to be the pot or the kettle, either, you may want to not throw stones around that glass house.

In the early 60ties the US $ was over 4 Swiss francs. And today? A stable currency? Look for yourself and re-define "a stable currency".

You have failed to reverse my general outlook on the US as far as "financial conditions" are concerned.
Instead you notice some "Anty-Yank" and "Monarchistic" writings in my PS? I am amused. Hardly, I only supply numerical facts. As unwelcome as those numerical facts may strike the "US-Treasury" and the US Taxpayer, it ramains a fact. Eventually affecting "the world" and it's final financial construct. Affecting holders of US $ massively as time goes by. More than others. Fortunately, it will not happen tomorrow. Rather the day after tomorrow. So current recipiants of US retirement sources are relatively "safe" for the foreseeable future.

Unless something changes overnight. Well understood, as it happened before.

How can I restore my credibility in your eyes? By supplying "alternative news". Or  "alternative numbers", more pleasing to you?
Good heavens. I don't want to be part of the "kettle", nor wanting to throw stones in a glasshouse. The "Americans" will do that for me.

 

[LaosLover]

When I first got here, I laughed out loud at some el drunko who claimed insider knowledge of Chinese dumping all of their dollars. I always wonder why these clairvoyants aren't writing me from their yachts instead of some mosquito-clogged rice paddy.

 

But Swissie's a fave of mine. And I do love bankrupt, their own economies listing to one side-Euro's dourly wagging their fingers at us red necks.

 

So more, please, more.

[KhunLA]

12 minutes ago, swissie said:

In the early 60ties the US $ was over 4 Swiss francs. And today? A stable currency? Look for yourself and re-define "a stable currency".

You have failed to reverse my general outlook on the US as far as "financial conditions" are concerned.
Instead you notice some "Anty-Yank" and "Monarchistic" writings in my PS? I am amused. Hardly, I only supply numerical facts. As unwelcome as those numerical facts may strike the "US-Treasury" and the US Taxpayer, it ramains a fact. Eventually affecting "the world" and it's final financial construct. Affecting holders of US $ massively as time goes by. More than others. Fortunately, it will not happen tomorrow. Rather the day after tomorrow. So current recipiants of US retirement sources are relatively "safe" for the foreseeable future.

Unless something changes overnight. Well understood, as it happened before.

How can I restore my credibility in your eyes? By supplying "alternative news". Or  "alternative numbers", more pleasing to you?
Good heavens. I don't want to be part of the "kettle", nor wanting to throw stones in a glasshouse. The "Americans" will do that for me.

 

You could have just left out the PS, as I stated, an almost valid post.

 

It's world economics, if you follow my rantings of such, I don't disagree with you, but it's most countries, not just the USA, that are technically bankrupt.

 

It's designed to be that way by the puppeteers, as they are making the 45M a month interest.   Nobody will admit, say it out loud ... 'bankrupt' ... just continue extending credit and their monthly cash flow continues.

 

Default isn't allowed and will never happen ... as that would end the gravy train.  Just accept it, use the system to your own advantage, and retire.

Edited May 12, 2023 by KhunLA

[Furioso]

To the OP, yes there is uncertainty ahead that's for sure.

I've studied this quite a bit and I found out that there's so much other instability throughout the rest of the world it's hard to confidently say if/when another currency becomes reserve. 

1. The Western World. Certainly the most stability by far. The EUR, AUD, USD, GBP are very solid, maybe only the JPY can claim to compete with this tight group.

2. The Eastern World. China desperately wants to have the reserve currency. Is it going to happen? Many say their belt and road initiative is a complete disaster. 1.5 Billion people living under a communist dictator who makes drastic changes at the wave of his hand isn't the definition of stable either. 

3. Russia. I probably don't need to delve too deep into Russia's problems. At best they are China's bitch. At worst their country is in deep trouble if they cannot defeat Ukraine. Maybe on the verge of complete collapse. 

Nothing lasts forever but wow, what a run the western world has had over the last century. Historically, China has gotten really big, then quickly shrinks back down. It looks like this is going to happen again. Russia wants to be a super power again, they'll be lucky to survive as a nation much longer. I wouldn't put it past them to drop a few nukes on their way out. 

 

[Etaoin Shrdlu]

I remember when I got well over three Swiss francs for a dollar when I lived in Switzerland in the early 1970s. After a couple of years I was getting well under three. On the other hand, when I moved to Thailand in the 1980s, I got about 25 baht to the dollar. Today I get 33 and for several years I got more than 40.

 

But yes, the long-term trajectory for the dollar against the baht is probably downward. Those just scraping by with modest US dollar income here will feel the pinch over time. I don't know about the relative purchasing power of the baht and dollar over this timeframe, so raw exchange rates may not tell the whole story.

 

The near-term threat to the dollar is the republicans' intransigence on lifting the debt ceiling. If the US defaults on its debt, the effect on the dollar will be swift and severe. This is of more concern, but congress has played chicken with this before.

 

 

[Lacessit]

I have never lost money buying and selling precious metals, I'll stick with what works for me.

IMO currencies of any stripe are a race to the bottom between governments.

[KannikaP]

4 hours ago, KhunLA said:

without looking within, at your silly monarchy

Do you think the Swiss have a monarchy?

[roietfortress]

USD is unstable right now because of a worldwide recession. its not doomsday, its just extended credit. maybe you don't understand credit in your country, but Americans understand credit and leverage. 

 

America is by far the number 1 group of consumers in the world. the buying power of Americans will always keep the dollar strong. you just can't replace the amount of spending power produced on a daily basis.

 

the value of a currency comes from spending not debt. even Buffett will tell you that. every country will keep buying those bonds as long as Americans are going to work every day.

 

stop watching so much mainstream TV news. its not based in reality. its based on what they want you complaining about on social media. every doomsday thread like this tips USD and XAU in the elite's favor. you play against the dollar and they buy more. my wife made a small fortune on XAU this week betting against mainstream news.

 

#

[stoner]

how much of the worlds transactions are done in us dollars ? 

 

 

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, KannikaP said:

Do you think the Swiss have a monarchy?

Actually thought he was a Brit ... oops, since mentioning the GBP, and usually the ones  most vocal, slagging off the USA, or maybe, because most members seem to be Brits.   Name didn't click with me ... oops again.

 

The Swiss seemed to have rid themselves of a silly monarchy quite some time ago.  Good for them.

 

I think their 'neutral' stance, saves their economy quite a bit by not wasting money on huge defense budget.  Though read they are starting to get a bit nervous recently.

 

Pretty easy to control one's budget/Switzerland, with less than 9M population.   About the population of some metro areas in the USA.

 

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by KhunLA

[KannikaP]

10 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Name didn't click with me

Swissie?????? 555

[KhunLA]

10 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

Swissie?????? 555

Might have just been a dog fan .. ????

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by KhunLA

[animalmagic]

7 hours ago, Furioso said:

Russia wants to be a super power again, they'll be lucky to survive as a nation much longer. I wouldn't put it past them to drop a few nukes on their way out.

I thought they might drop one on westminster abbey during the coronation. All the world's royalty, and most of the western world (pro Ukraine) democratic leaders. Quite a juicy target for a terminally ill psychopath with delusions of grandeur and a huge chip on his shoulder.

[Iron Tongue]

11 hours ago, swissie said:

What does it all mean for US $ expats? In short and simplyfied: Over time you will get less THB for your US $. Ask a British expat what happened to his British £ since 1965.
Is there any wonder that some folks are wondering what the next "world-currency" will be?
Statistical source "Neue Zürcher Zeitung".

Cool story bro!

What'd you do, sink all your Francs into Rubles back in 2021?

What you fail to understand is that the UK was still coming out of WW2 debt as well as ending its Empire in the 1960s.

All while the US was experiencing some of its greatest growth in the history of mankind, as it changed from a full war economy into a consumer oriented economy that still leads the world today.

In fact, the Growth or US GDP grew from:

1960 of $540 billion to 2023 of $26,695 billion, and

Per Capita income:

1960 of $3,007 to 2023 of $78,421

The US economy remains remarkably strong, no matter what President does to screw it up.

 

 

 

[BusyB]

8 hours ago, KhunLA said:

You could have just left out the PS, as I stated, an almost valid post.

 

It's world economics, if you follow my rantings of such, I don't disagree with you, but it's most countries, not just the USA, that are technically bankrupt.

 

It's designed to be that way by the puppeteers, as they are making the 45M a month interest.   Nobody will admit, say it out loud ... 'bankrupt' ... just continue extending credit and their monthly cash flow continues.

 

Default isn't allowed and will never happen ... as that would end the gravy train.  Just accept it, use the system to your own advantage, and retire.

I highly recommend that fans of this thread read David Graeber's 'Debt: The First 5000 Years'.

 

For my part I've been waiting calmly since the late 90s for the euro to collapse - ahead of the EU following the withdrawal of the irreplaceable lynchpin UK 555.

Edited May 13, 2023 by BusyB

[Jingthing]

In general I don't think dumping the dollar is something that will happen quickly.

 

More like a long term trend.

 

The current debt limit crisis is definitely worrying in the short term.

[Truth Teller]

11 hours ago, bignok said:

Hence support for gold and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin? BITCOIN?? ????????.........

[jesimps]

7 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Actually thought he was a Brit ... oops, since mentioning the GBP, and usually the ones  most vocal, slagging off the USA, or maybe, because most members seem to be Brits.   Name didn't click with me ... oops again.

 

The Swiss seemed to have rid themselves of a silly monarchy quite some time ago.  Good for them.

 

I think their 'neutral' stance, saves their economy quite a bit by not wasting money on huge defense budget.  Though read they are starting to get a bit nervous recently.

 

Pretty easy to control one's budget/Switzerland, with less than 9M population.   About the population of some metro areas in the USA.

 

 

Our "silly monarchy" are just the figureheads of our system of constitutional monarchy. A bit like you lot worshipping your flag. Saves us having an idiot like JB for our head of state. 

[transam]

8 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Actually thought he was a Brit ... oops, since mentioning the GBP, and usually the ones  most vocal, slagging off the USA, or maybe, because most members seem to be Brits.   Name didn't click with me ... oops again.

 

The Swiss seemed to have rid themselves of a silly monarchy quite some time ago.  Good for them.

 

I think their 'neutral' stance, saves their economy quite a bit by not wasting money on huge defense budget.  Though read they are starting to get a bit nervous recently.

 

Pretty easy to control one's budget/Switzerland, with less than 9M population.   About the population of some metro areas in the USA.

 

 

"Silly Monarchy", and you have people like "BigMac Trump" to be your leader..........

[Walker88]

Always an interesting and contentious subject....

 

The dollar is strong despite the ever-growing deficit primarily because there is no other place to go. Capital seeks return, plus ease of entry and exit. The US' strength is its massive liquid capital markets, rule of law, and the taxing authority of a government in charge of a $25 trillion economy and a land that remains---with some threats on the horizon---the hub of technological innovation.

 

Ain't nobody innocent in all this.

 

The EU, when facing the 2008 Financial Crisis, doubled down and could see a world of hurt coming. Remember what the EU did: Dragi saw two problems, high interest rates getting in the way of sovereign borrowing, and bank NPLs. He 'solved' it by printing money, giving it to banks, and telling them to load up on sovereign debt. Banks bought so much they drove Spain's rates from 7% down to 50 pips. That allowed Spain and others to borrow a lot more, and created 'gains' for banks, whose leveraged and reserve requirements dropped because of this Ponzi Scheme of Dragi. If rates continue to rise, banks lose those gains on the paper they hold, and the cost of servicing EU sovereign debt goes up as paper matures and needs to be rolled over. Also, little was done to actually eliminate EU banks' NPLs. Exacerbating the problem is the fact the EU banking system is about 3 times the size of EU GDP, while in the US the banking system is only a bit over 80% of US GDP.

 

Switzerland is a problem in and of itself. I'll just say this: look at Swiss GDP, then look at the asset base of UBS-Credit Swiss. A banking crisis in Switzerland would decimate its economy. Those banks also have lots of dollar loan exposure to Eastern Europe and other developing economies, while the dollar in which the loans were made has risen a lot against home currencies.

 

No way the yen or yuan become the reserve currency. The servicing requirements of Japan's debt as a % of govt inflows makes Greece look stable. Japan has an aging population and a woefully underfunded pension system, owing to peculiarities in accounting by trust banks that manage pensions. China has no rule of law, so getting capital out will always be an issue. China also has enormous excess capacity in almost everything, especially steel.

 

Bitcoin? Ah....a thing that is wildly energy intensive, closely held by a relatively few individuals with zero power behind them (vs sovereigns with laws, efficient markets, militaries, etc.) where transactions are limited by the complexity of the system, has about a 0% chance of being significant in a world with a $65 trillion economy. When 'mining' coins used more energy in 2022 than the energy used in the nation of Argentina, something incredibly silly is going on.

 

The dollar will eventually fall by the wayside, but if one is older than, say, age 20, one won't see it.

[Furioso]

9 hours ago, animalmagic said:

I thought they might drop one on westminster abbey during the coronation. All the world's royalty, and most of the western world (pro Ukraine) democratic leaders. Quite a juicy target for a terminally ill psychopath with delusions of grandeur and a huge chip on his shoulder.

You know Putin wanted to nuke em'!

[swissie]

On 5/13/2023 at 12:57 AM, KhunLA said:

You could have just left out the PS, as I stated, an almost valid post.

 

It's world economics, if you follow my rantings of such, I don't disagree with you, but it's most countries, not just the USA, that are technically bankrupt.

 

It's designed to be that way by the puppeteers, as they are making the 45M a month interest.   Nobody will admit, say it out loud ... 'bankrupt' ... just continue extending credit and their monthly cash flow continues.

 

Default isn't allowed and will never happen ... as that would end the gravy train.  Just accept it, use the system to your own advantage, and retire.

I profited from the "gravy train" like most of us. I am also retired. I am fine.

PS: I uphold my "PS" in my "OP" with conviction. The rest of the world does not understand why the premier western country (with a population of 330 million) can ot find other presidential candidates.

 

[swissie]

On 5/13/2023 at 2:57 AM, roietfortress said:

USD is unstable right now because of a worldwide recession. its not doomsday, its just extended credit. maybe you don't understand credit in your country, but Americans understand credit and leverage. 

 

America is by far the number 1 group of consumers in the world. the buying power of Americans will always keep the dollar strong. you just can't replace the amount of spending power produced on a daily basis.

 

the value of a currency comes from spending not debt. even Buffett will tell you that. every country will keep buying those bonds as long as Americans are going to work every day.

 

stop watching so much mainstream TV news. its not based in reality. its based on what they want you complaining about on social media. every doomsday thread like this tips USD and XAU in the elite's favor. you play against the dollar and they buy more. my wife made a small fortune on XAU this week betting against mainstream news.

 

#

Quote:  "the value of a currency comes from spending not debt. even Buffett will tell you that. every country will keep buying those bonds as long as Americans are going to work every day".

There is a fly in the ointement: If national dept is growing faster than economoic growth/productivity, the international Investment community will increasingly start to use their pocket calculators.

 

[RayWright]

Back in the days before the Euro...