To US Expats in Thailand only. It's about your wallet.

[swissie]

On 5/13/2023 at 3:59 AM, KhunLA said:

Actually thought he was a Brit ... oops, since mentioning the GBP, and usually the ones  most vocal, slagging off the USA, or maybe, because most members seem to be Brits.   Name didn't click with me ... oops again.

 

The Swiss seemed to have rid themselves of a silly monarchy quite some time ago.  Good for them.

 

I think their 'neutral' stance, saves their economy quite a bit by not wasting money on huge defense budget.  Though read they are starting to get a bit nervous recently.

 

Pretty easy to control one's budget/Switzerland, with less than 9M population.   About the population of some metro areas in the USA.

 

 

Swissie has lived in English speaking countries for a long time. He has turned into some sort of Amerco/English Anglophile. So he ended up in this "English" forum.

But, lo and behold, I looked at my passport again and it says that I am a certified "swissie". Good enough for me, although with certain reservations.

 

[swissie]

On 5/13/2023 at 9:41 AM, Jingthing said:

In general I don't think dumping the dollar is something that will happen quickly.

 

More like a long term trend.

 

The current debt limit crisis is definitely worrying in the short term.

Yes, a long term trend unless "the follies on capitol-hill" (A potential future TV series on Netflix) will turn it into a short term trend.

 

[swissie]

On 5/13/2023 at 2:11 PM, Walker88 said:

Always an interesting and contentious subject....

 

The dollar is strong despite the ever-growing deficit primarily because there is no other place to go. Capital seeks return, plus ease of entry and exit. The US' strength is its massive liquid capital markets, rule of law, and the taxing authority of a government in charge of a $25 trillion economy and a land that remains---with some threats on the horizon---the hub of technological innovation.

 

Ain't nobody innocent in all this.

 

The EU, when facing the 2008 Financial Crisis, doubled down and could see a world of hurt coming. Remember what the EU did: Dragi saw two problems, high interest rates getting in the way of sovereign borrowing, and bank NPLs. He 'solved' it by printing money, giving it to banks, and telling them to load up on sovereign debt. Banks bought so much they drove Spain's rates from 7% down to 50 pips. That allowed Spain and others to borrow a lot more, and created 'gains' for banks, whose leveraged and reserve requirements dropped because of this Ponzi Scheme of Dragi. If rates continue to rise, banks lose those gains on the paper they hold, and the cost of servicing EU sovereign debt goes up as paper matures and needs to be rolled over. Also, little was done to actually eliminate EU banks' NPLs. Exacerbating the problem is the fact the EU banking system is about 3 times the size of EU GDP, while in the US the banking system is only a bit over 80% of US GDP.

 

Switzerland is a problem in and of itself. I'll just say this: look at Swiss GDP, then look at the asset base of UBS-Credit Swiss. A banking crisis in Switzerland would decimate its economy. Those banks also have lots of dollar loan exposure to Eastern Europe and other developing economies, while the dollar in which the loans were made has risen a lot against home currencies.

 

No way the yen or yuan become the reserve currency. The servicing requirements of Japan's debt as a % of govt inflows makes Greece look stable. Japan has an aging population and a woefully underfunded pension system, owing to peculiarities in accounting by trust banks that manage pensions. China has no rule of law, so getting capital out will always be an issue. China also has enormous excess capacity in almost everything, especially steel.

 

Bitcoin? Ah....a thing that is wildly energy intensive, closely held by a relatively few individuals with zero power behind them (vs sovereigns with laws, efficient markets, militaries, etc.) where transactions are limited by the complexity of the system, has about a 0% chance of being significant in a world with a $65 trillion economy. When 'mining' coins used more energy in 2022 than the energy used in the nation of Argentina, something incredibly silly is going on.

 

The dollar will eventually fall by the wayside, but if one is older than, say, age 20, one won't see it.

Clearly written by an economic scholar. Respect an admiration. I support his views. Compressed to the essentials. To say the same thing I would have taken 5 pages.

[animalmagic]

On 5/13/2023 at 10:51 PM, Furioso said:

You know Putin wanted to nuke em'!

Who knows what Putin wants or will consider doing. He's staring at defeat in Ukraine and at home so he's cornered and desperate. He's been throwing threats of nuclear attack for the last few months. Nuking westminster abbey during the coronation may have been his final revenge.

[jerrymahoney]

On 5/13/2023 at 2:40 AM, swissie said:

What does it all mean for US $ expats? In short and simplyfied: Over time you will get less THB for your US $.

Maybe so. But for a 70+ year-old guy there are things I can get/buy in Thailand that certainly are not available in the USofA regardless  of who is the next President.

[KhunLA]

@swissie

"What does it all mean for US $ expats? In short and simplyfied: Over time you will get less THB for your US $"

 

As I stated earlier, not noticing getting less, the past few US administration.  30-35 THB / 1 USD.  Remaining steady past 15+ yrs, since Jan 2007.

 

Rarely going below 30, and some nice peaks above 35.  Fluctuation of ~10% from where it is now.

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency

 

[mrwebb8825]

Things will get better when Trump becomes president again, buys Canada and Iceland, closes the southern border, then defaults on all of China's currency holdings while repossessing all of its land holding in the US for "National Security Purposes".

This will be while he restarts American oil production and restores the US to an export country out producing and outselling OPEC.

[1FinickyOne]

Sure the dollar has gone down, but we all have so much more of them... and w/o the bile of outsiders too.

 

Never very classy to knock a country not your own. 

[Captain Monday]

As long as I have been loosely following economics, even before that been hearing of the "impending"

collapse of the US dollar. Maybe there is no viable alternative, or could it be something else? 

[Furioso]

20 minutes ago, Captain Monday said:

As long as I have been loosely following economics, even before that been hearing of the "impending"

collapse of the US dollar. Maybe there is no viable alternative, or could it be something else? 

US and Europe are huge economic powers that have civility and stability. Yes, I know the war in Ukraine but just proves Russia has been trouble for way over a century. 

 

The rest of the world? Australia and Japan and that's about it, and they're close allies to US/Europe. 

[bignok]

5 minutes ago, Furioso said:

US and Europe are huge economic powers that have civility and stability. Yes, I know the war in Ukraine but just proves Russia has been trouble for way over a century. 

 

The rest of the world? Australia and Japan and that's about it, and they're close allies to US/Europe. 

The economy in Australia is a mess. Japan has had problems for a long time.

[bignok]

40 minutes ago, Captain Monday said:

As long as I have been loosely following economics, even before that been hearing of the "impending"

collapse of the US dollar. Maybe there is no viable alternative, or could it be something else? 

Copy what Buffett or another rich person does.

[Captain Monday]

32 minutes ago, bignok said:

Copy what Buffett or another rich person does.

I only buy index funds and never sell or trade. Seems to work

[JimTripper]

I went into a bar of a UK expat in Sihanoukville. He got all excited when I bought a 50 cent beer.

 

imagine needing 50 cents being retired in Cambodia. That’s crazy.  I think the old guy was just out of time. Not sure what happened to him, but it probably was not great whatever it was.

[Isaan sailor]

It’s true, the BRICs want to dedollarize.  But to what?  Digital currency?  The Chinese Yuan?  The Euro?  Any change won’t happen overnight, if it happens at all.

And yes, I think a Biden/Trump rematch won’t help America’s image.

[Srikcir]

On 5/13/2023 at 5:06 PM, transam said:

"Silly Monarchy", and you have people like "BigMac Trump" to be your leader..........

Trump - Former leader, twice impeached, twice indicted for criminal offenses with more to come and guilty of defamation regarding his sexual abuse.

[Srikcir]

On 5/13/2023 at 4:55 AM, bignok said:

Bad elsewhere too. Name 2 good leaders anywhere.

From Top global leaders 2023 conducted by Morning Consult updated April 3, 2023, approval ratings the top five out of top twenty:

Modi (India): 78%

Lopez Obrador (Mexico): 68%

Berset (Switzerland): 62%

Albanese (Australia): 58%

Melanie (Italy): 52%

Lula da Silva (Brazil): 50%

Placing 20th is Kishida (Japan): 21%

Seems to be a democratic bias or consequence?

 

[kennw]

On 5/13/2023 at 6:13 AM, Furioso said:

To the OP, yes there is uncertainty ahead that's for sure.

I've studied this quite a bit and I found out that there's so much other instability throughout the rest of the world it's hard to confidently say if/when another currency becomes reserve. 

1. The Western World. Certainly the most stability by far. The EUR, AUD, USD, GBP are very solid, maybe only the JPY can claim to compete with this tight group.

2. The Eastern World. China desperately wants to have the reserve currency. Is it going to happen? Many say their belt and road initiative is a complete disaster. 1.5 Billion people living under a communist dictator who makes drastic changes at the wave of his hand isn't the definition of stable either. 

3. Russia. I probably don't need to delve too deep into Russia's problems. At best they are China's bitch. At worst their country is in deep trouble if they cannot defeat Ukraine. Maybe on the verge of complete collapse. 

Nothing lasts forever but wow, what a run the western world has had over the last century. Historically, China has gotten really big, then quickly shrinks back down. It looks like this is going to happen again. Russia wants to be a super power again, they'll be lucky to survive as a nation much longer. I wouldn't put it past them to drop a few nukes on their way out. 

 

The demise of Russia is sad, they had the chance to integrate with Europe, "gas pipelines etc" but the ego of their leader has killed that prospect (Ukraine) , they will become a lackey of China. Lets hope that the good and sensible people of USA dont let a similarly egotistical person get into power again.

[kennw]

On 6/7/2023 at 9:52 PM, mrwebb8825 said:

Things will get better when Trump becomes president again, buys Canada and Iceland, closes the southern border, then defaults on all of China's currency holdings while repossessing all of its land holding in the US for "National Security Purposes".

This will be while he restarts American oil production and restores the US to an export country out producing and outselling OPEC.

And will he accept payment in Yuan?

[wwest5829]

Perhaps of a more recent note for US Expats might be the decision this past week of SCOTUS to refuse review of the FBAR annual filing requirement. The lower court decision is upheld to take 1/2 of a woman's wealth as a penalty for not filing. With the Kingdom of Thailand requirement to keep 800K (retirement) or 400K (marriage) in a Thai bank, any US citizen who does, exceeds to $10,000.00 USD FBAR annual filing requirement. (Yes, I am aware of the alternative combo or monthly income method).

[BTB1977]

Come to Thailand and worry about world politics.  Stupid is as stupid does 

[sletraveler]

20 years is a very short time frame.   The dollar will die and it’ll be tough on us.   Hopefully it’s after I am burned. 

[Toby1947]

Money is just a number, some people have bigger numbers than others. If the UK for instance owed the USA 1 trillion dollars someone just presses a computer button and transfers a NUMBER. simple job done 

[Toby1947]

1 minute ago, Toby1947 said:

Money is just a number, some people have bigger numbers than others. If the UK for instance owed the USA 1 trillion dollars someone just presses a computer button and transfers a NUMBER. Iook at it like that and don't give a toss 

 

[Acharn]

On 5/13/2023 at 3:15 AM, KhunLA said:

And yet, it has remained stable against the THB @ 30-35 for the past 20 years.

 

The world is always coming to an end, and yet ... still here and nothing has changed.

 

Your PS simply exposes your anti Yank prejudice, without looking within, at your silly monarchy and your own choice of PMs.  Losing all credibility to an almost valid post.

 

You want to be the pot or the kettle, either, you may want to not throw stones around that glass house.

Minor quibble: two or three years ago the USD was down to 28 Thai Baht for several months. It was below 30 for six to eight months (I'm not going to look it up -- see https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/  for Thai baht).

[mrwebb8825]

8 hours ago, kennw said:

And will he accept payment in Yuan?

Maybe, if it's flown in at night as pallets of cash to Iraq who will ship it to Israel who will buy ships loaded with oil at a discount from OPEC who will transport it to Turkey who will buy it at inflated prices and secretly fly the cash to NATO who will present it to him on bended knee in a public ceremony as back payment for US support.

[KhunLA]

41 minutes ago, Acharn said:

Minor quibble: two or three years ago the USD was down to 28 Thai Baht for several months. It was below 30 for six to eight months (I'm not going to look it up -- see https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/  for Thai baht).

Me neither ... I know where it's been since I've been here, up to 46, one day/hour of so, and above 40 for a while.  Made the first house build and first car rather inexpensive, against the USD brought in. 

 

But since 'stabilized, 30-35 +/-.  and on the high end of that for quite some time, along with @ 38 just a short while  ago and above 35 for a few months.

 

What does it all mean ... plan that retirement carefully.  Sh!t happens????

[STALINGRAD]

Thank you swissie for the insight. I have converted all US,Euro, Brunei dollars and Saudi riyals to crisp Swiss 1000 franc notes. Do you have the upcoming Thai lottery numbers ….

[save the frogs]

On 5/12/2023 at 3:40 PM, swissie said:

To start: The American "Billion" consists only of 1000 millions. That makes it a "milliard" not a "Billion".

 

you dont like the word billion? ha.

 

is switzerland even a "real country" or is it a set of borders set up by the world elite to set up secure banks to store their wealth?

 

the world's wealthiest country, but doesn't actually produce anything. 

 

 

[Skeptic7]

Doom & Gloom for The USA is as old as The USA. This early-retired US expat don't think 'too mutt'. Already made my substantial fortune and diversified. The greenback collapse may happen, but not in my remaining years. After that...don't give a ????❗

 

Agree the US has an over-abundance of political woes and gridlock + old men obsession. One correction to your assessment of the 2 candidates...BOTH are old men. And yes, one is also a certified moron...federally indicted on 7 counts (thus far), corrupt, insecure, delusional, toxic narcissistic menace found guilty of defamation and sexual battery. I could go on...and on but everyone knows his playlist, even those that miserably try to deny it. 

 

Wish Pita or similar was POTUS. Thailand lucky to have this brilliant young guy and pleasantly shocking the population realized that. Now if only he becomes PM and not disqualified or oustered.