UK and US poised to fall into recession as interest rates dampen growth

[onthedarkside]

 

Stubbornly high inflation and higher borrowing costs are poised to drive the economies of the UK, Germany and US into recession, the leading rating agency Moody’s has warned.

 

In a downbeat forecast for growth across advanced G20 economies, it said a ramping up of interest rates by central banks on both sides of the Atlantic was expected to weigh on economic growth this year.

 

“We expect very weak growth in key advanced economies in particular, including mild recessions in the US, UK and Germany, and stagnant economic activity in France and Italy,” Moody’s said in a report.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/31/uk-and-us-poised-to-fall-into-recession-as-interest-rates-dampen-growth

 

[JonnyF]

More doomsday predictions about the UK. No doubt to be revised upwards when the UK's actual figures come out. Just like before.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/uk-economy-rebounds-with-stronger-than-expected-january-gdp-print.html

 

Underestimating the UK seems to have become a sport.

 

https://www.cityam.com/why-have-the-bank-of-england-and-the-imf-been-so-wrong-on-the-uk-economy-a/

 

 

No need for a prediction on Germany though. It's already in recession.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65707206

 

[candide]

43 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

More doomsday predictions about the UK. No doubt to be revised upwards when the UK's actual figures come out. Just like before.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/uk-economy-rebounds-with-stronger-than-expected-january-gdp-print.html

January growth followed by a fall in March so Q1 growth rate is 0.1%. It's not bad but nothing to bragg about.

"The first quarterly estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) shows that the economy increased by 0.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023.

Monthly estimates published today (12 May 2023) show that GDP fell by 0.3% in March 2023, following an increase of 0.5% in January 2023 (revised up from 0.4% in the previous publication) and no growth in February 2023."

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2023

 

[candide]

59 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Underestimating the UK seems to have become a sport.

 

https://www.cityam.com/why-have-the-bank-of-england-and-the-imf-been-so-wrong-on-the-uk-economy-a/

Also from this very interesting article:

"It’s looking increasingly likely the Bank will have to ratchet up interest rises again to crush inflation. 

Economists think there’s a chance Bailey and co will revert to the 50 basis point speed at the next MPC meeting on 22 June. Markets think the eventual rate peak will be 5.5 per cent.

Reaching such a level would put a recession back on the table, one that is perhaps needed to kill off price rises."

 

So It doesn't contradicts the OP.

[youreavinalaff]

But UK is already in recession, according to the experts, since 4th quarter last year.

 

Oh no, hang on a minute.

[candide]

On the one hand, increasing interests rate may lead to recession, one the other hand it tends to reduce inflation. Well, at least in the EU.

 

"Inflation in Europe drops to lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine"

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/01/economy/europe-inflation-drop-ukraine-war/index.html

 

There is an obvious issue of fine tuning there.