Global rice trade shook by El Nino, politics, and embargo in Thailand

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In the face of mounting global food security concerns, the impact of El Niño weather patterns and international political disruptions are causing serious upheavals in the farming landscape, particularly in major global rice-producing countries.

 

Compounding the issue is Russia’s recent withdrawal from a vital agreement, which previously ensured the uninterrupted transport of Ukrainian grain goods through the Black Sea region.

 

Causing further complications, the past few weeks have observed the world’s biggest exporter of global rice, India, restricting shipments of non-basmati white rice—a type that makes up almost 25% of its export portfolio. As this type of rice forms the dietary staple for almost half of the world’s population, this decision, undertaken in a bid to stabilise local prices and mitigate the deepening food crisis fears, has sparked worries about the knock-on effects on Thailand’s burgeoning rice industry, with local prices predicted to inflate by about 10%.

Playing a crucial role in these forecasts are the changing weather patterns.

The Agricultural Economics Department estimates that the overall rice cultivation area in Thailand will shrink by just under 1% to 62.3 million rai during the 2023/24 harvest season. This reduction predicts a 3.27% decrease in production to 25.7 million tonnes of paddy when compared to last year.

 

The blame, as per the Thai Meteorological Department, lies in the delay and a reduction of rainfall, which spells extended dry spells and potential droughts. Inevitably, this can lead to an inadequate water supply for agricultural ventures, especially in areas beyond the reach of irrigation systems.

 

by Alex Morgan

Rice field in Northern Thailand, green-trails.com.

 

-- © Copyright Thaiger 2023-08-04

 

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Full story: https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/el-nino-politics-and-embargo-shake-global-rice-trade-thai-production-dips-2

[soalbundy]

So Thai farmers should get a decent price this year, it's an ill wind that blows no good

[billd766]

2 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

So Thai farmers should get a decent price this year, it's an ill wind that blows no good

That would assume that the ONWR in Thailand allow Thai rice farmers to grow their crop in view of the predicted drought caused by El Nino which may last until 2025,m according to an account (that I cannot quote) in the Bangkok Post yesterday and today.

 

1   If the Thai rice farmers are not allowed to grow rice, how will the afford to live in the next 12 to 18 months?

 

2   If the Thai rice farmers cannot grow rice, where will the rice come from to feed the Thai people, how much will the prices rise and how will the country pay for the rice imports?

 

3   The ONWR and its staff don't care as they are paid by the government whether they work or not.

 

4   Any price rise and/or shortage of rice will, IMHO be charged to the very long suffering (poor) Thai people.

[soalbundy]

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

That would assume that the ONWR in Thailand allow Thai rice farmers to grow their crop in view of the predicted drought caused by El Nino which may last until 2025,m according to an account (that I cannot quote) in the Bangkok Post yesterday and today.

 

1   If the Thai rice farmers are not allowed to grow rice, how will the afford to live in the next 12 to 18 months?

 

2   If the Thai rice farmers cannot grow rice, where will the rice come from to feed the Thai people, how much will the prices rise and how will the country pay for the rice imports?

 

3   The ONWR and its staff don't care as they are paid by the government whether they work or not.

 

4   Any price rise and/or shortage of rice will, IMHO be charged to the very long suffering (poor) Thai people.

 

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

That would assume that the ONWR in Thailand allow Thai rice farmers to grow their crop in view of the predicted drought caused by El Nino which may last until 2025,m according to an account (that I cannot quote) in the Bangkok Post yesterday and today.

 

1   If the Thai rice farmers are not allowed to grow rice, how will the afford to live in the next 12 to 18 months?

 

2   If the Thai rice farmers cannot grow rice, where will the rice come from to feed the Thai people, how much will the prices rise and how will the country pay for the rice imports?

 

3   The ONWR and its staff don't care as they are paid by the government whether they work or not.

 

4   Any price rise and/or shortage of rice will, IMHO be charged to the very long suffering (poor) Thai people.

I think you are talking about the second crop, where I am in Isaan they don't have a second crop and the present Jasmin rice is coming along fine, harvest in Dezember.