UK economy ‘will shrink for two years as eurozone and US grow’

[Social Media]

 

The UK economy will shrink this year and in 2024, according to a report by a leading US thinktank that said stubborn inflation and a shortage of workers would damage the prospects for growth more than most analysts expect.

 

The Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) said a drop in GDP this year of 0.3% would be followed by a fall of 0.2% next year while the eurozone and the US were on course for growth this year and next.

Ahead of revised forecasts by the International Monetary Fund in a fortnight, which are expected to show the UK expanding this year and staging a modest recovery in 2024, the PIIE president, Adam Posen, said he was gloomy about the UK’s prospects.

Posen, who spent three years on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, said factors related to the underlying weakness of the UK economy and the fallout from Brexit would leave the UK behind while most other developed economies expanded. He said the UK was also suffering from an unequal recovery that benefited better-off households while the bottom half of the income scale continued to be affected by falling real incomes.

Low-income households in the US and the eurozone had, by contrast, fared better in the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Posen said: “The UK won’t be in recession all of next year, but the recovery will be held back by higher-than-expected inflation and in response, the Bank of England will need to keep interest rates higher for longer.”

Cuts to government spending next year will also drag on economic growth as Jeremy Hunt soothes jittery financial markets with austerity measures, including tax increases, he added.

The central bank held rates at 5.25% at its meeting last week, and betting on financial markets showed investors expect there will be no change at the next meeting in November. Posen said the next move could be upwards should inflation prove to be more stubborn than the central bank’s forecasts predict, despite a weakening of economic growth.

 

FULL STORY

[youreavinalaff]

3 hours ago, Social Media said:

“The UK won’t be in recession all of next year, but the recovery will be held back by higher-than-expected inflation and in response, the Bank of England will need to keep interest rates higher for longer.”

Recession? Wasn't that happening 4th quarter of 2022? 

 

Interest rates are higher because they were too low. They are now at a realistic level.

 

If Americans, we have a good'un we all love on here, would concentrate on their own country and it's failings, they might be able to improve it.

[Ben Zioner]

Good. They had everything to become the leading economy within the EU yet their delusions led them to leave. 

[Srikcir]

Maybe UK should join BRIC. 

[BritManToo]

The globalists can't stop predicting doom and gloom for countries that refuse to play their game.

 

So far they've been wrong and the UK is doing better than Germany.

 

[wombat]

17 hours ago, Ben Zioner said:

Good. They had everything to become the leading economy within the EU yet their delusions led them to leave. 

All they had to do was give up sovereignty and be ruled by faceless men in Brussels?

Doesn't sound very pukka to me.

[spidermike007]

They are giving the US far too much credit. A son of a friend of mine works for a large investment bank in Texas. They have been laying alot of people off, anticipating a major recession and economic correction. It is coming and forget about a soft landing. Many retailers in the US are hurting. Consumer confidence is very low. And both the real estate market and the stock market will drop significantly in the next two years or so. Many non mainstream experts are predicting this. 

[placeholder]

23 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

The globalists can't stop predicting doom and gloom for countries that refuse to play their game.

 

So far they've been wrong and the UK is doing better than Germany.

 

It's true that the German economy is currently shrinking a bit, and the UK economy is growing a bit but the German economy would have to shrink a lot to be equivalent on a per capita basis to the UK economy. And not just that, income distribution would have to increase a lot too.

[placeholder]

These kinds of predictions are always suspect.

[placeholder]

31 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's true that the German economy is currently shrinking a bit, and the UK economy is growing a bit but the German economy would have to shrink a lot to be equivalent on a per capita basis to the UK economy. And not just that, income distribution would have to increase a lot too.

Should have written "income inequality" for "income distribution".
 

[Red Forever]

59 minutes ago, wombat said:

All they had to do was give up sovereignty and be ruled by faceless men in Brussels?

Doesn't sound very pukka to me.

UK never lost sovereignty and all citizens had a vote to elect their representatives in EU elections 

Add to that: UK had power of veto on all votes.

Sounds very pukka to me.

Of course, if you want to believe the lies that the likes of Farridge, the disgraced former PM Johnson, Gove and the other swivel eyed right wing nutters spewed out.........

[JonnyF]

More doomsday predictions for the UK.????

 

Be prepared for a small, largely unreported follow up article in a year or so where growth exceeded expectations and forecasts have been revised. But not until the bitter Rejoiners have regurgitated all the old lies and cliches for pages and pages, such as the UK not returning to pre pandemic levels (another doomsday story later proved to be a lie).

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/uk-economy-gdp-covid-pandemic-rebound-ons-figures-statistics-growth-recession-decline-b1104209.html

 

 

Back in reality, it is the Eurozone that is struggling.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/148adc6b-98f3-4655-a92b-913a232c9eef

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/recession-hit-germany-is-facing-a-flurry-of-global-headwinds-goldman-sachs.html

 

 

 

 

[Purdey]

"They need us more than we need them."

Seems they are doing well without British help. 

[candide]

4 hours ago, JonnyF said:

More doomsday predictions for the UK.????

 

Be prepared for a small, largely unreported follow up article in a year or so where growth exceeded expectations and forecasts have been revised. But not until the bitter Rejoiners have regurgitated all the old lies and cliches for pages and pages, such as the UK not returning to pre pandemic levels (another doomsday story later proved to be a lie).

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/uk-economy-gdp-covid-pandemic-rebound-ons-figures-statistics-growth-recession-decline-b1104209.html

 

 

Back in reality, it is the Eurozone that is struggling.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/148adc6b-98f3-4655-a92b-913a232c9eef

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/recession-hit-germany-is-facing-a-flurry-of-global-headwinds-goldman-sachs.html

 

 

 

 

Lol! They changed the calculation method!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01

 

[youreavinalaff]

Just now, candide said:

Lol! They changed the calculation method!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01

 

They changed the calculation method for predictions into the future to become more believable? ????????????????.

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, Purdey said:

"They need us more than we need them."

Seems they are doing well without British help. 

Oh yeah, they're doing great ????

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-economy-likely-contracted-this-quarter-pmi-2023-09-22/

 

[candide]

47 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

They changed the calculation method for predictions into the future to become more believable? ????????????????.

You did not understand what JonnyF comment and the linked articles were about (the past GDP)? 

[PETERTHEEATER]

8 hours ago, wombat said:

All they had to do was give up sovereignty and be ruled by faceless men in Brussels?

Doesn't sound very pukka to me.

Jolly good reasoning old chap????

[RayC]

8 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Maybe UK should join BRIC. 

Steady on. We didn't leave the EU just to replace it with a different set of faceless bureaucrats from Beijing, Bombay, Brasilia or Babayeva telling us what to do! 

 

(Confession time: Yes, I know Bombay is now called Mumbai. I also admit that I had to search for "Cities in Russia beginning with B").

[PETERTHEEATER]

We (the British public) have just been told of a string of MoUs related to trade deals with a number of individual US States which will boost the economy.

Hands across the sea. Peace in our time. I feel like all my birthdays have come at once????

Edited September 28, 2023 by PETERTHEEATER

[JonnyF]

On 9/27/2023 at 1:12 PM, Ben Zioner said:

Good. They had everything to become the leading economy within the EU yet their delusions led them to leave. 

The "leading" economy? What does that mean? The biggest?

 

Because even if we had become the biggest, the EU is a Franco German led organization which would never let the British be a dominant force. They very much wanted to put the British "in their place".

 

Clearly their massive over-reach has backfired as the Eurozone looks set to sink into recession without us.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/08/eurozone-sinks-into-recession-as-cost-of-living-crisis-takes-toll

 

Nah, we're better off out. Next up, adios to the ECHR. See ya... ????

[RayC]

15 minutes ago, PETERTHEEATER said:

We (the British public) have just been told of a string of MoUs related to trade deals with a number of individual US States which will boost the economy.

Hands across the sea. Peace in our time. I feel like all my birthdays have come at once????

Jokes aside. What practical benefits will this MoU bring to either side? I can only assume that this is an election ploy by both Sunak and the Governor of Washington ("Look what I've done for you. I've signed an agreement with a billion/trillion dollar economy").

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-and-washington-state-trade-cooperation-innovation-and-clean-energy-memorandum-of-understanding#:~:text=Policy paper-,UK and Washington State trade cooperation%2C innovation and clean energy,US%2C signed 25 September 2023.

[candide]

2 hours ago, JonnyF said:

The "leading" economy? What does that mean? The biggest?

 

Because even if we had become the biggest, the EU is a Franco German led organization which would never let the British be a dominant force. They very much wanted to put the British "in their place".

 

Clearly their massive over-reach has backfired as the Eurozone looks set to sink into recession without us.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/08/eurozone-sinks-into-recession-as-cost-of-living-crisis-takes-toll

 

Nah, we're better off out. Next up, adios to the ECHR. See ya... ????

That's a good incentive for EU countries to do like UK and change the GDP calculation method by widely applying the SUT framework, in order to increase GDP numbers.

[transam]

Oh, riiiiiiight, a USA think tank..........................

[Nick Carter icp]

5 minutes ago, candide said:

That's a good incentive for EU countries to do like UK and change the GDP calculation method by widely applying the SUT framework, in order to increase GDP numbers.

You are claiming that the U.K changed its figure compiling methods to give a higher GDP figure .

  Can you give a link to support that claim ?

[candide]

5 hours ago, candide said:

Lol! They changed the calculation method!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01

 

 

4 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

You are claiming that the U.K changed its figure compiling methods to give a higher GDP figure .

  Can you give a link to support that claim ?

See my previous post quoted above.

I did not claim that their intention was to increase numbers (although it is possible). The method takes into account more activities, so it leads to higher numbers.

Other European countries have not fully applied this framework, so numbers are not any more comparable.

Edited September 28, 2023 by candide

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

 

See my previous post quoted above

The U.K made the data collection more efficient and up to date and the released figure more concise  .

   The update in the data collection wasnt done to give a false impression of the actual figures , it was done to make the figures more accurate , France already  has similar methods 

[candide]

10 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

The U.K made the data collection more efficient and up to date and the released figure more concise  .

   The update in the data collection wasnt done to give a false impression of the actual figures , it was done to make the figures more accurate , France already  has similar methods 

From the article:

This article will cover the indicative annual and quarterly impacts resulting from changes to sources and methods, as well as confronting the year 2021 through the SUT framework for the first time.

 

France has started applying the SUT framewok but not to the same extent as UK. Most other European countries haven't.

 

I never claimed it was to give a false impression, as the new method is allegedly better. It's just that it makes comparisons less relevant, until other countries apply it fully.

[Nick Carter icp]

1 minute ago, candide said:

From the article:

This article will cover the indicative annual and quarterly impacts resulting from changes to sources and methods, as well as confronting the year 2021 through the SUT framework for the first time.

 

France has started applying the SUT framewok but not to the same extent as UK. Most other European countries haven't.

 

I never claimed it was to give a false impression, as the new method is allegedly better. It's just that it makes comparisons less relevant, until other countries apply it fully.

You did say that the U.K is changing its method of collecting data in order to give a higher GDP figure .

   But the figure will just be more accurate and it could be higher or lower or the same .

   The change was for accuracy, rather then to give a higher figure 

   

[candide]

29 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

You did say that the U.K is changing its method of collecting data in order to give a higher GDP figure .

   But the figure will just be more accurate and it could be higher or lower or the same .

   The change was for accuracy, rather then to give a higher figure 

   

Don't put word into my mouth, I did not say that. I said that changing the method leads to GDP number increase ( as explained by the ONS). It's not only an issue of revised inputs.