‘No turning back’: how the Ukraine war has profoundly changed the EU

[Danderman123]

13 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Back to the topic. Good idea.

 

Perhaps you can elaborate on "the EU is preparing for further aggression by Putin"?

What more can they do without committing troops?

First off, the EU countries are increasing capacity for producing armaments.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I talked about that already.

 

My opinion is that some people in the US want Ukraine to win just before the 2024 election. So, that's when Ukraine will get the good stuff - F16s, ATACMS,  etc.

 

 

Sounds good in theory, but in practice an offensive takes a great deal of time to prepare. It would be somewhat difficult to prepare to use such weapons without actually possessing them for training purposes.

Also, that's in winter, which would make any offensive very difficult.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

First off, the EU countries are increasing capacity for producing armaments.

Without actually putting themselves on a war footing, it would be hard to justify that. Armaments are very expensive and the money to do so would require cuts elsewhere, which would cause political problems. 

 

[billd766]

23 hours ago, RanongCat said:

Very true. But is it not equally true that without the provision of such assistance Russia would have most likely failed in the battle with Germany and to this day the overall outcome would painted  a very different picture ?

Rarely would "allied" assistance be given purely on benevolent grounds rather than well contemplated strategic foreign policy . In additional opportunism Ukraine is subject to the influx of foreign owner land and business purchasers in the absence of a large percentage of Ukrainian citizens .

Am I also wrong in noticing  by its' increasing absence a significant word or two in media reports such as  "We  will have your  backs, continue our  support  as long as it takes until this war is won  etc etc ."

It may be implied as a given but initially such rhetoric included "Ukraine" wins this war.

Now it increasingly seems bets are both ways but no matter to the financially interested parties.

 

 

 

I have no idea and neither does anybody else as it did not happen. True or false nobody has any real idea.

 

Also I try not to play the whataboutery if/or/perhaps/maybe game.

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

For those with an open mind on such issues, there is usually more to any situation than is generally understood.

Yes, without American war material Russia would have been defeated by the Germans, but without a great sacrifice of Russian lives the Germans would have succeeded in the Russian campaign.

Had the Germans not had to fight on two fronts, the allies would have faced a far greater task to succeed in the invasion some years later.

More whataboutery from you.

 

What if/perhaps/maybe, didn't happen so why do you bring it up.

[billd766]

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Back to the topic. Good idea.

 

Perhaps you can elaborate on "the EU is preparing for further aggression by Putin"?

What more can they do without committing troops?

Perhaps YOU could email the EU and ask them what their next move will be.

 

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

At this point in time yes, but how about this time next year if the next summer gives no advance against the Russian front? The Russians have all winter to prepare for any counteroffensive, just as they had this time.

Can you tell what will happen in the world next week? Let alone what will happen in the Ukraine next year.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

Perhaps YOU could email the EU and ask them what their next move will be.

 

Can you tell what will happen in the world next week? Let alone what will happen in the Ukraine next year.

Errrr, I wasn't the one foretelling the future, which is why I put a question mark after my question.

 

If I were to make a prediction about Ukraine this time next year, it will be that if they haven't broken through Russian lines the money is going to dry up from most EU countries and possibly even the UK. There is only so long they can justify spending that sort of money on a war they are not fighting, if there is stalemate.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

10 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I have no idea and neither does anybody else as it did not happen. True or false nobody has any real idea.

 

Also I try not to play the whataboutery if/or/perhaps/maybe game.

More whataboutery from you.

 

What if/perhaps/maybe, didn't happen so why do you bring it up.

LOL. I only mentioned it in passing, so the subsequent discussion was in response to another poster that decided to make a big deal out of it.

Anyway, the next time you do some whataboutery, I'll be sure to remind you of your post.

[transam]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Errrr, I wasn't the one foretelling the future, which is why I put a question mark after my question.

 

If I were to make a prediction about Ukraine this time next year, it will be that if they haven't broken through Russian lines the money is going to dry up from most EU countries and possibly even the UK. There is only so long they can justify spending that sort of money on a war they are not fighting, if there is stalemate.

 

 

So life means nothing to you, just money, what a sad individual you are...????

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, transam said:

So life means nothing to you, just money, what a sad individual you are...????

Have a nice day.

[transam]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

Have a nice day.

Your nice day means counting money, not thinking about the men, women and children being killed for land grab....

 

If it were 1940 Britain, and things were different, you would have been on the South coast beach with the welcoming sandwiches........????

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, transam said:

Your nice day means counting money, not thinking about the men, women and children being killed for land grab....

 

If it were 1940 Britain, and things were different, you would have been on the South coast beach with the welcoming sandwiches........????

I wonder if he celebrates on Neville Chamberlain's birthday.

[Danderman123]

16 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sounds good in theory, but in practice an offensive takes a great deal of time to prepare. It would be somewhat difficult to prepare to use such weapons without actually possessing them for training purposes.

Also, that's in winter, which would make any offensive very difficult.

You are suggesting that the US will hand over some new weapons, Ukraine will train with them, and, at some point next year, use the weapons to beat the Russians.

 

Okay. Got it.

[Danderman123]

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Errrr, I wasn't the one foretelling the future, which is why I put a question mark after my question.

 

If I were to make a prediction about Ukraine this time next year, it will be that if they haven't broken through Russian lines the money is going to dry up from most EU countries and possibly even the UK. There is only so long they can justify spending that sort of money on a war they are not fighting, if there is stalemate.

 

 

I guess you are supporting the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran axis.

 

Good luck with that.

[RayC]

On 10/3/2023 at 1:16 AM, gearbox said:

Why would I blame EU...I blame the unelected Brussels sprouts who act against the interests of the EU.

Do you mean the European Commission? If so, do you really think that they are acting independently and that the individual EU member states have no input into 

collective EU foreign policy? 

 

On 10/3/2023 at 1:16 AM, gearbox said:

 

I have an EU passport as well, curious to find out how many of the warmongering trolls here urging EU to get more involved are EU citizens.

Not sure how that's relevant, but in order to avoid an accusation that I am avoiding the question: No, I'm no longer an EU citizen. I was stripped of that privilege by my country.

 

On 10/3/2023 at 1:16 AM, gearbox said:

 

It is a simple fact that Russia invaded Ukraine, another simple fact is EU is a big loser as long as this war goes on.

 

 

It is. But what's the alternative? Leave Ukraine to Putin?

[RayC]

On 10/3/2023 at 2:47 AM, JonnyF said:

I'm trying to understand what you are writing. What is a casual link? Do you mean causal? It's tough to intrepret what you mean from what you write.

Apologies. Careless of me.

 

On 10/3/2023 at 2:47 AM, JonnyF said:

Back to reality for a moment.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/29/uk-economy-makes-stronger-recovery-from-pandemic-than-first-thought-germany-france

 

 

We only left 3 years ago. We are going from strength to strength. Even the most optimistic Brexiteer was acknowledging it could take 5-10 years to see the benefits yet here we are 3 years later already out-performing Germany and France. 

And this growth would not have been possible if the UK had remained within the EU? Where is the evidence that there is causal link?

 

Ireland is the fastest growing economy in Western Europe (2022: 9.4%). The UK was, pre-referendum, Ireland's second biggest export market (behind the US). We are now their 4th biggest. Should we conclude that Ireland has also "benefited" from Brexit? (It's a rhetorical question).

 

The reality is that Brexit has caused  damage to the UK economy and UK businesses.

 

On 10/3/2023 at 2:47 AM, JonnyF said:

It's gone better than we could have imagined. Vive La Brexit.

 

 

There you go: https://news.sky.com/story/new-post-brexit-border-controls-to-cost-businesses-330m-a-year-12975025

 

I imagine it won't be too long before yet another new episode is released.

[RayC]

On 10/3/2023 at 6:47 AM, billd766 said:

26 is not enough for you?

Apologies. I was being sarcastic; a misplaced attempt at humour. 

 

I agree entirely with the points you made.

[placeholder]

On 10/4/2023 at 3:38 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Without actually putting themselves on a war footing, it would be hard to justify that. Armaments are very expensive and the money to do so would require cuts elsewhere, which would cause political problems. 

 

Yours is the kind of statement that comes from living in a fact-free bubble.

"In 2014, three Allies spent 2% of GDP or more on defence; this increased to seven Allies in 2022. Moreover, 2022 was the eighth consecutive year of rising defence spending across European Allies and Canada, amounting to a rise of 2.2% in real terms compared to 2021."

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm?#:~:text=In 2014%2C three Allies spent,real terms compared to 2021.

Edited October 4, 2023 by placeholder

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

You are suggesting that the US will hand over some new weapons, Ukraine will train with them, and, at some point next year, use the weapons to beat the Russians.

 

Okay. Got it.

No. I'm suggesting the US will hand over some new weapons, Ukraine will train with them, and, at some point next year, use the weapons to attack the Russians. Whether they win or not is unknown.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, RayC said:

It is. But what's the alternative? Leave Ukraine to Putin?

Once the west no longer supports Ukraine ( and if they do not break through next summer IMO the west will give up throwing good money in to the fire ) it's game over for Ukraine.

Two EU states have already stopped giving Ukraine support, I'm sure more will follow.

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

I guess you are supporting the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran axis.

 

Good luck with that.

I have no idea what that means.

Perhaps you can repeat it in a way that makes sense, and without claiming to know anything about me, which you do not.

[billd766]

8 hours ago, RayC said:

Apologies. I was being sarcastic; a misplaced attempt at humour. 

 

I agree entirely with the points you made.

No apology necessary.

 

I was triple tasking and failed at them all miserably.

 

Memo to self. Try doing 1 thing at a time and slowly.

 

Stupid man that you are

[RayC]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Once the west no longer supports Ukraine ( and if they do not break through next summer IMO the west will give up throwing good money in to the fire ) it's game over for Ukraine.

Two EU states have already stopped giving Ukraine support, I'm sure more will follow.

I and many others will hope that Ukraine breaks through asap. 

 

Failing that, we had best hope that your confidence that the EU will stop supporting Ukraine is misplaced. At the moment, EU support is holding firm.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eus-borrell-kyiv-says-bloc-is-preparing-long-term-security-pledges-2023-10-01/

[nauseus]

On 10/1/2023 at 10:43 AM, Social Media said:

Russia’s invasion has had a major impact on the bloc’s security and energy policies – and even its very raison d’être

by Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor

 

“The EU has changed. There is no turning back. We have turned out the lights behind us and there is basically only one way.”

The words of the Danish politician and EU commissioner Margrethe Vestager at a conference in May neatly reflect the mood among the Brussels elite, taken aback at their own ability to shed EU bureaucratic torpor, defend Ukraine, embrace enlargement and move closer to fulfilling Ursula von der Leyen’s ambition for the EU to become a “geopolitical force”.

 

“Our response to the invasion was by the hour at first, now not to the same degree, but it is absolutely Europe’s top priority and we will stay supportive of Ukraine until the war is won and Ukraine has been rebuilt, and become a member of the European Union,” Vestager continued.

“I think that is the crucial commitment that has been made, and that will be a better union when that is brought about – a more dynamic union and a more united union.”

Indeed, in the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion, Josep Borrell, the EU foreign and security chief, argued the EU had grown up, “making more progress in a week toward the objective of being a global security player than it had in the previous decade”. The example of the brave Ukrainian resistance sprang the EU into a newfound sense of purpose.

 

FULL STORY

 

 

These EU "politicians" (with zero military experience) appear to be using this invasion to promote their own hopes of growing the EU, probably because they've little idea of how else to do that, otherwise. Words like these are careless and will likely draw the conflict on even longer! As stockpiles of arms and ammunition in the EU run low, then these words will be hard to keep in any case.

 

The EU itself has not changed much but some of its members certainly have, independently. Some have shown good support for Ukraine, while some have not. 

 

[candide]

15 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

These EU "politicians" (with zero military experience) appear to be using this invasion to promote their own hopes of growing the EU, probably because they've little idea of how else to do that, otherwise. Words like these are careless and will likely draw the conflict on even longer! As stockpiles of arms and ammunition in the EU run low, then these words will be hard to keep in any case.

 

The EU itself has not changed much but some of its members certainly have, independently. Some have shown good support for Ukraine, while some have not. 

 

And it's not as if most country politicians hadn't any military experience!

Oh wait! 

[RayC]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

 

These EU "politicians" (with zero military experience) appear to be using this invasion to promote their own hopes of growing the EU, probably because they've little idea of how else to do that, otherwise. Words like these are careless and will likely draw the conflict on even longer! As stockpiles of arms and ammunition in the EU run low, then these words will be hard to keep in any case.

 

The EU itself has not changed much but some of its members certainly have, independently. Some have shown good support for Ukraine, while some have not. 

 

There is undoubtedly some politicking going on - which is not limited to the EU - but how can you conclude that, "Words like these .... will likely draw the conflict on even longer!"?

 

Whether the Ukraine conflict has changed how the EU functions is open to debate, but there can be no doubt that the EU - both as individual member states and as an institution - has been supportive of Ukraine. Whether the level of support is sufficient is again a matter of opinion.

https://eu-solidarity-ukraine.ec.europa.eu/index_en

Edited October 5, 2023 by RayC
Change of phrasing

[billd766]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

These EU "politicians" (with zero military experience) appear to be using this invasion to promote their own hopes of growing the EU, probably because they've little idea of how else to do that, otherwise. Words like these are careless and will likely draw the conflict on even longer! As stockpiles of arms and ammunition in the EU run low, then these words will be hard to keep in any case.

 

The EU itself has not changed much but some of its members certainly have, independently. Some have shown good support for Ukraine, while some have not. 

 

And your military command experience in battle is what exactly?

[nauseus]

5 hours ago, candide said:

And it's not as if most country politicians hadn't any military experience!

Oh wait! 

Sorry, I forgot. Von Der Leyen was defence minister for Germany. She oversaw arming the Wermacht with broomsticks. Awesome!

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, RayC said:

There is undoubtedly some politicking going on - which is not limited to the EU - but how can you conclude that, "Words like these .... will likely draw the conflict on even longer!"?

 

Whether the Ukraine conflict has changed how the EU functions is open to debate, but there can be no doubt that the EU - both as individual member states and as an institution - has been supportive of Ukraine. Whether the level of support is sufficient is again a matter of opinion.

https://eu-solidarity-ukraine.ec.europa.eu/index_en

Uttering phrases like "no turning back" and "stay supportive of Ukraine until the war is won and Ukraine has been rebuilt, and become a member of the EU" is hardly likely to get Putin to the negotiating table. This war could go on for several more years without negotiations IMO.

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

And your military command experience in battle is what exactly?

Bill, you got me,  I only got as far as the Ark Royal and HMS Sultan, in peacetime - not for very long - so no command. After that I started blowing things up commercially.

 

But is the EU Commission at war? Or are they just playing? A dangerous game I think. 

 

From what I can read there is a stalemate in Ukraine right now but support from the West seems to be starting to flag, largely due to low stocks of arms and ammunition everywhere. That's not good for the Ukrainians, but the Russians make their own tanks, jets, missiles and guns, so they will have a better chance to resupply and regroup.

 

I want the innocent Ukrainians to come out of this the best way they can now and I just wish this bloody war was over.

[StayinThailand2much]

On 10/1/2023 at 10:56 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

What's wrong with these warmongers that they think a war in a foreign country is more important than any of the myriad problems afflicting the EU, such as the illegal immigration chaos in the Mediterranean?

Yes, channeling billions and billions to Ukraine for years and years, while paying for millions of refugees, may very well use up funds that the EU needs for other purposes. At the same time it leads to delusion with politics among the electorate, and ever rising votes for extremist parties... If the war (and the EU's funding for Ukraine) continue for another 2-3 years, it may very well lead to the latter's undoing.

Edited October 5, 2023 by StayinThailand2much