Incoherent government economic policy clashes with Bank of Thailand’s efforts to rein in debt

[webfact]

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s (centre) government is heading into 2024, facing a decline in exports and a weaker-than-anticipated recovery in foreign tourism. At the same time, rising interest rates dampen economic activity while threatening even further turmoil as the Kingdom’s borrowing costs are too low. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand has launched a campaign to rein in borrowing and tighten runaway lending.

The danger of a credit downgrade for Thailand is growing as private sector debt continues to creep up, and even with interest rates at only 2.5%, the effects on the economy are already significant, with the property market down by over 14% with up to 20% fewer properties sold.

The rift between the Thai government and the Bank of Thailand continues to widen as the country’s economy treads water with a prospect of a possible credit downgrade driven by elevated public and private sector debt levels and the absence of direction. It comes as the government’s economic policy, such as the controversial Digital Wallet scheme to ignite growth, is seen to be at odds with a campaign being launched in 2024 by the Bank of Thailand to rein in private sector borrowing and, in particular, resolve credit demand driven by an element of the population living beyond its means.

 

As the economy stumbles to the end of 2023 with a projected 2% decline in exports and a figure for foreign arrivals for the year at 27 million, the projection for annual GDP growth is somewhat the same as last year at 2.6 to 2.7%. It is quite a disappointing outcome.

 

by James Morris and Son Nguyen

 

Full story: Thai Examiner.com 2023-11-14

 

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[spidermike007]

Is it just me or does it seem like nearly everything that's Sretta has done so far, and proposed so far seems fairly incoherent, disjointed, not particularly intelligent, lacking vision, and certainly lacking a sense of leadership? 

 

He seems woefully unprepared for the job. 

[HappyExpat57]

"Incoherent government economic policy"

 

Redundant?

[Ben Zioner]

28 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Is it just me or does it seem like nearly everything that's Sretta has done so far, and proposed so far seems fairly incoherent, disjointed, not particularly intelligent, lacking vision, and certainly lacking a sense of leadership? 

 

He seems woefully unprepared for the job. 

It is isn't only you, it is glaring. But what could you expect from a Populist who has inherited an economy that was already  on the brink.

[Shop mak]

The head of bank of Thailand had recommended to borrow, for the 10k wallet.

Reported in other news sources today, that can't be quoted

What to believe?

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

a weaker-than-anticipated recovery in foreign tourism

Stop listen to TAT fantasy numbers, and start to be realistic. 

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

the property market down by over 14% with up to 20% fewer properties sold.

Wow. Previous news was that real estate market was booming, driven by big brother buying lots of properties. 

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

the Bank of Thailand has launched a campaign to rein in borrowing and tighten runaway lending.

Almost weekly, a new Hub will be created.

Suggests to further build more bridges, more highways, more more.

 

New PM seems to want to spend spend spend, without any accountant warning him that the country can't afford it.

[Mike Lister]

3 minutes ago, Shop mak said:

The head of bank of Thailand had recommended to borrow, for the 10k wallet.

Reported in other news sources today, that can't be quoted

What to believe?

 

Stop listen to TAT fantasy numbers, and start to be realistic. 

 

Wow. Previous news was that real estate market was booming, driven by big brother buying lots of properties. 

 

Almost weekly, a new Hub will be created.

Suggests to further build more bridges, more highways, more more.

 

New PM seems to want to spend spend spend, without any accountant warning him that the country can't afford it.

The source that can't be named (actually it can, it just can't be quoted)m is a government spin mouthpiece, treat all content with suspicon.

[bamnutsak]

Incoherent? Even on his best day Srettha barely rises to that level.

 

IMO he did a rather poor job pitching this idiotic idea last week.

 

And the powers that be are clearly all lined up against this, and the courts, Parliament, and various corruption bodies haven't chimed in.

 

Choke this one in the crib, and move on. No need to squander what little political capital he has on this lame-brained idea.

 

 

[Mike Lister]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Is it just me or does it seem like nearly everything that's Sretta has done so far, and proposed so far seems fairly incoherent, disjointed, not particularly intelligent, lacking vision, and certainly lacking a sense of leadership? 

 

He seems woefully unprepared for the job. 

Completely agreed on all points. 

 

The article however is a lot of spin, the fact is that international tourism at 27 mill. is very much in line with forecast and expectations, if not in line with TAT's hopes and desires! The reality is that global recovery is slower than expected (by some) and the overly strong USD has had a negative impact, as have the wars in the ME and Ukraine. There appears to be a lot of wishing and hoping at the center of government whilst ignoring the global economic realities. Another aspect if that mouths appear to be getting ahead of brains in many cases, the desire to say things, anythings, is powerful.

[Gsxrnz]

There's a world-wide debt crisis and the proverbial will be hitting the fan Q1 2024. The only remaining question is whether the Kabal decide to get us out of it with an inflationary, or deflationary recession. Either way, it won't be pretty.

 

If they go inflationary by printing money to replace the written-off debt (essentially an international bank bail-out), expect 1980's level inflation. 

 

If they go deflationary by allowing the debt (cash) to be removed from the M2, you might be able to pick up a Lambo for the previous price of a small Singha.

[Enzian]

Isn't a big part of the problem that Srettha is just a stand-in for Thaksin and they all haven't yet figured out how to pilot the ship until the big guy gets a clear grip on the situation? His health may be a bit of a real issue at this point. And they may be trying to figure out which Shin to be the best front person. We're all waiting for the other shoe to drop. And those who have said Srettha will only last 6 months may be right on point.

[Eric Loh]

Central Banks tend to be conservative and risk averse so I am not suprise by their position. If standing still and hoping that the global economy will recover, then governing will be a breeze. Thailand will remain maintaining a mediocre GDP growth of 1-2% and with an aging population will probably become a under developed country and will left far behind by more dynamic countries like Vietnam and Indonesia growing at 5-7% annually. 

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s (centre) government is heading into 2024, facing a decline in exports and a weaker-than-anticipated recovery in foreign tourism. At the same time, rising interest rates dampen economic activity while threatening even further turmoil as the Kingdom’s borrowing costs are too low. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand has launched a campaign to rein in borrowing and tighten runaway lending.

Srettha is borrowing how much to fulfill the digital pay-out promise...

[klauskunkel]

Quote

Incoherent government

So it is. Incoherency, part of the aging experience. Next stage fecal incontinence, some say it already started with the increase in caca spouting.

Got Dinosaurs?

[mania]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Is it just me or does it seem like nearly everything that's Sretta has done so far, and proposed so far seems fairly incoherent, disjointed, not particularly intelligent, lacking vision, and certainly lacking a sense of leadership? 

 

He seems woefully unprepared for the job. 

 

I don't golf but I think he is like those little markers they use to hold a spot where their ball was.

I think he is just holding the spot either for that guy in the supposed hospital/jail or that same guys daughter