Thailand’s tourism outlook is showing signs of improvement, prompting the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to consider revising its 2026 foreign tourist target after the impact of the Middle East conflict proved less severe than initially expected. Get today's headlines by email TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the agency’s earlier downside scenario, which projected 30-32 million foreign arrivals this year if the conflict continued for three months, may have been overly cautious. Recent data indicates stronger-than-expected performance in long-haul markets, particularly from the Middle East, where arrivals were forecast to fall by around 40% but declined by less than 30% during the first five months of the year. Further positive signals emerged ahead of Thailand Travel Mart Plus 2026 (TTM+ 2026), which will take place from 10-12 June at the Nong Nooch Pattaya International Convention and Exhibition Centre in Chonburi. Buyers from the Middle East are expected to attend the event to negotiate tourism agreements, with strong interest in health and wellness products, new campaigns and future marketing initiatives once regional conditions improve. TAT is also seeking to attract Middle Eastern airlines to establish routes to Thai aviation hubs, including U-Tapao Airport, in preparation for future demand growth. Thapanee said TAT may revise its forecast again. The agency had previously expected foreign arrivals in 2026 to decline by 5-10%, but now believes the reduction will be clearly below 5%. The revised estimate could see arrivals fall by only 1-2%, or potentially avoid a contraction altogether, compared with the 32.97 million foreign visitors recorded in 2025. She said the decline now appeared far smaller than previously feared and could improve further. TAT will continue monitoring developments before discussing any revised targets with the tourism and sports minister and the TAT board. The agency is also focusing on increasing spending per visitor. While a new revenue target has not yet been finalised, Thapanee said it would not be lower than last year’s level. Visa policy remains a challenge in several markets, particularly India. The Cabinet approved in principle on 19 May the cancellation of the 60-day visa-free measure for tourists from 93 countries and territories, returning to previous visa-free arrangements for each country. Although the change has not yet taken effect, Thapanee said discussions with relevant agencies would be needed to maintain growth from the Indian market, including MICE travellers and wedding groups. She said Thailand should focus less on overall arrival numbers and comparisons with competitors, and instead prioritise attracting more long-haul travellers and generating higher tourism revenue. Tourism and Sports Ministry data showed Thailand welcomed 14,032,649 foreign tourists between 1 January and 31 May, down 2.3% year-on-year. Visitor spending generated approximately 679.274 billion baht, down 2.48%. Regional figures showed Middle East arrivals, excluding Iran and Israel, reached 150,779 during the first five months, down 24.83%. Europe recorded 3,965,179 arrivals, up 0.26%, while the Americas posted 704,789 arrivals, up 0.31%. Asia-Pacific arrivals totalled 9,146,708, down 3.08%. The Nation reported that in May alone, Thailand welcomed 2,346,845 foreign tourists, an increase of 3.54% compared with the same month last year. Middle East arrivals stood at 47,726, down 1.9%, while Europe recorded 365,345 visitors, down 0.35%. Arrivals from the Americas rose 3.56% to 102,389, while Asia-Pacific arrivals increased 4.53% to 1,818,479. Picture courtesy of The Nation Join the discussion? Already a member? Adapted by ASEAN Now Nation 6 June 2026
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