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Trump is dominating the primaries. That doesn’t mean he’ll beat Biden


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Media outlets are buzzing with headlines proclaiming Donald Trump's dominating performance in the Iowa caucuses and his strong position in the polls ahead of the New Hampshire primary. While the mainstream media marvels at what they term a "stunning show of strength," it's essential to scrutinize the narrative and delve into the nuances that paint a more nuanced picture of Trump's political standing.

 

Iowa Caucuses: Weakness in Numbers:
Contrary to the media's portrayal of Trump's victory in Iowa as a landslide, a closer look reveals a more nuanced reality. Trump garnered just 56,260 votes out of 2,083,979 registered voters in Iowa, representing less than 3% of the electorate. This raises questions about the extent of his actual dominance, especially when considering that 50% of Republican caucus-goers identified as non-Maga, with three-quarters of them opposing Trump.

 

Incumbent Advantage:
Trump's status as a former president and the incumbent Republican leader provides him with a significant advantage in the primaries. This advantage stems from his control over the party apparatus and the historical tendency of parties to re-nominate former presidents seeking another term. However, the media's awe at Trump's dominance overlooks the fact that he faced competition within the party, with other candidates raising substantial funds for their primary campaigns.

 

Post-Midterm Challenges:
Trump's decision to run for the presidency again came shortly after Republicans experienced setbacks in the midterms, marking the third consecutive election where Trump's influence proved detrimental to his party's candidates. Despite losses in critical races, the media's coverage tends to downplay these challenges and instead focuses on Trump's primary victories.

 

The Danger of Misleading Narratives:
While the media's coverage creates an impression of Trump's unstoppable momentum, it's crucial to distinguish his performance in Republican primaries from potential success in the general election. The danger lies in the public adopting a false narrative that Trump's dominance in party primaries guarantees victory in the broader electoral landscape.

 

Future Prospects and Public Perception:
As the media highlights Trump's achievements in primaries, the real test awaits in the general election. When Americans shift their focus to choosing between Trump and Biden, factors such as criminal charges, impeachment history, attempted coup allegations, financial controversies, and accusations of rape may influence public perception. The media's current portrayal of Trump's dominance might not accurately predict his success in the broader electoral context.

 

Conclusion:
A critical examination of Trump's primary dominance reveals a more nuanced reality beyond the headlines. While he may command attention within the Republican party, the road to the general election poses challenges that extend beyond primary victories. As the political landscape evolves, public scrutiny of Trump's record and character will play a decisive role in shaping the narrative leading up to the presidential race.


24.01.24

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48 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

People forget that Trump doesn't do well in general elections.  And he tends to hurt down ballot Republican nominees as well.  Quite a few Haley voters in NH said they would not vote for Trump in the general.  Add to that....

 

[A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.]

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112

More to the point if any of the myriad problems Trump faces force him off the ballot the racists, misogynists and evangelical Christians in his base aren’t going to switch their vote to an Asian woman with dubious ‘Christian’ credentials.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

He’s not as popular as he thinks he is.

 

Trump could be half as popular as he thinks he is and still win by a mile. 

 

16 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

He’s busy attacking Hayley online and making thinly veiled references to dirt on her.

 

 

 

Irrelevant. Fact is, GOP voters like him. That's good news for the GOP. Don't attack the messenger - I don't have a dog in this fight, just stating the obvious. 

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2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

More to the point if any of the myriad problems Trump faces force him off the ballot the racists, misogynists and evangelical Christians in his base aren’t going to switch their vote to an Asian woman with dubious ‘Christian’ credentials.

 

 

Not even to make sure Trump gets a pardon?

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1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

 

Trump could be half as popular as he thinks he is and still win by a mile. 

 

 

Irrelevant. Fact is, GOP voters like him. That's good news for the GOP. Don't attack the messenger - I don't have a dog in this fight, just stating the obvious. 

The real evidence suggests otherwise.

 

And Trump knows it, hence his ranting.

 

Oh and Trump needs a lot more than MAGA votes to  win the election.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

Oh and Trump needs a lot more than MAGA votes to  win the election.

Bet he doesn't need cue cards to find his seat and show him what to say, but Biden sure does ....lol

 

One thing Trump needs is cue cards with speaking instructions, oh sorry thats Biden who needs cue cards with instructions when and where to sit down, when / what to speak LOL…and this daft fool crashing  polls &job approvals which should be on his cue card and admission documents to a geriatric care facility for cognitively challenged adults. LOL.

 

"YOU take YOUR seat."

 

Joe Biden Notecard Detailing Instructions For President Revealed

 

Biden_NewsWeek_cue-cardscopy.thumb.jpg.e629ce45aa843ec2187311e5c56aa902.jpg

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11 hours ago, Social Media said:

public scrutiny of Trump's record and character will play a decisive role in shaping the narrative leading up to the presidential race.

you mean like the polls and job approval of the incumbent, the only counter-narrative to that is to call Trump hitler and try to put him in jail. America is a banana republic status now. Well done, but laughable.

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4 minutes ago, illisdean said:

Bet he doesn't need cue cards to find his seat and show him what to say, but Biden sure does ....lol

 


You’ve obviously not been keeping up to date with Trump’s latest teleprompter problems.

 

I suggest you do so, it will help you come to terms with Trump’s failing brain becoming a news item, even FIX News are mentioning it,

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14 hours ago, Berkshire said:

 Quite a few Haley voters in NH said they would not vote for Trump in the general.  Add to that....

 

[A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.]

 

 

They will vote for Trump in November. They always do.

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20 hours ago, illisdean said:

Bet he doesn't need cue cards to find his seat and show him what to say, but Biden sure does ....lol

 

One thing Trump needs is cue cards with speaking instructions, oh sorry thats Biden who needs cue cards with instructions when and where to sit down, when / what to speak LOL…and this daft fool crashing  polls &job approvals which should be on his cue card and admission documents to a geriatric care facility for cognitively challenged adults. LOL.

 

"YOU take YOUR seat."

 

Joe Biden Notecard Detailing Instructions For President Revealed

 

Biden_NewsWeek_cue-cardscopy.thumb.jpg.e629ce45aa843ec2187311e5c56aa902.jpg

 

Damn! Brandon even got the card the wrong way round! Let's go Joe!

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