Trump is dominating the primaries. That doesn’t mean he’ll beat Biden

[Social Media]

 

Media outlets are buzzing with headlines proclaiming Donald Trump's dominating performance in the Iowa caucuses and his strong position in the polls ahead of the New Hampshire primary. While the mainstream media marvels at what they term a "stunning show of strength," it's essential to scrutinize the narrative and delve into the nuances that paint a more nuanced picture of Trump's political standing.

 

Iowa Caucuses: Weakness in Numbers:
Contrary to the media's portrayal of Trump's victory in Iowa as a landslide, a closer look reveals a more nuanced reality. Trump garnered just 56,260 votes out of 2,083,979 registered voters in Iowa, representing less than 3% of the electorate. This raises questions about the extent of his actual dominance, especially when considering that 50% of Republican caucus-goers identified as non-Maga, with three-quarters of them opposing Trump.

 

Incumbent Advantage:
Trump's status as a former president and the incumbent Republican leader provides him with a significant advantage in the primaries. This advantage stems from his control over the party apparatus and the historical tendency of parties to re-nominate former presidents seeking another term. However, the media's awe at Trump's dominance overlooks the fact that he faced competition within the party, with other candidates raising substantial funds for their primary campaigns.

 

Post-Midterm Challenges:
Trump's decision to run for the presidency again came shortly after Republicans experienced setbacks in the midterms, marking the third consecutive election where Trump's influence proved detrimental to his party's candidates. Despite losses in critical races, the media's coverage tends to downplay these challenges and instead focuses on Trump's primary victories.

 

The Danger of Misleading Narratives:
While the media's coverage creates an impression of Trump's unstoppable momentum, it's crucial to distinguish his performance in Republican primaries from potential success in the general election. The danger lies in the public adopting a false narrative that Trump's dominance in party primaries guarantees victory in the broader electoral landscape.

 

Future Prospects and Public Perception:
As the media highlights Trump's achievements in primaries, the real test awaits in the general election. When Americans shift their focus to choosing between Trump and Biden, factors such as criminal charges, impeachment history, attempted coup allegations, financial controversies, and accusations of rape may influence public perception. The media's current portrayal of Trump's dominance might not accurately predict his success in the broader electoral context.

 

Conclusion:
A critical examination of Trump's primary dominance reveals a more nuanced reality beyond the headlines. While he may command attention within the Republican party, the road to the general election poses challenges that extend beyond primary victories. As the political landscape evolves, public scrutiny of Trump's record and character will play a decisive role in shaping the narrative leading up to the presidential race.

24.01.24

Source

 

[Berkshire]

People forget that Trump doesn't do well in general elections.  And he tends to hurt down ballot Republican nominees as well.  Quite a few Haley voters in NH said they would not vote for Trump in the general.  Add to that....

 

[A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.]

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112

[Chomper Higgot]

48 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

People forget that Trump doesn't do well in general elections.  And he tends to hurt down ballot Republican nominees as well.  Quite a few Haley voters in NH said they would not vote for Trump in the general.  Add to that....

 

[A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.]

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112

More to the point if any of the myriad problems Trump faces force him off the ballot the racists, misogynists and evangelical Christians in his base aren’t going to switch their vote to an Asian woman with dubious ‘Christian’ credentials.

 

 

[thaicurious]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112

"Donald Trump has a big problem ahead

A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November....

 

There’s a whole swath of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for him in November if he becomes the nominee.

 

It’s an issue that became starkly apparent in polling ahead of the Iowa caucuses, when an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in that state found that fully 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump..."

 

I'd say don't let the door hit ya in the ass on your way out but some things seem unavoidable

 

 

Edited January 24 by thaicurious
typo

[JonnyF]

It would appear that Trump is very popular amongst Republican voters.

 

This reduces the chance of Republicans voting for another party because they don't like the GOP candidate.

 

Bad news for lefties and Democrats, I'm not surprised The Guardian is trying to play it down. It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow when he's back in the white house. Looking forward to the meltdown.  

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

It would appear that Trump is very popular amongst Republican voters.

 

This reduces the chance of Republicans voting for another party because they don't like the GOP candidate.

 

Bad news for lefties and Democrats, I'm not surprised The Guardian is trying to play it down. It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow when he's back in the white house. Looking forward to the meltdown.  

He’s not as popular as he thinks he is.

 

He’s busy attacking Hayley online and making thinly veiled references to dirt on her.

 

 

[placeholder]

26 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

It would appear that Trump is very popular amongst Republican voters.

 

This reduces the chance of Republicans voting for another party because they don't like the GOP candidate.

 

Bad news for lefties and Democrats, I'm not surprised The Guardian is trying to play it down. It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow when he's back in the white house. Looking forward to the meltdown.  

I can't say I've been enjoying the meltdown of Republican voters since the 2020 election. More like exasperation with their bizarre failure to face facts.

[placeholder]

One thing to note is that despite Americans' extreme dissatisfaction with the economy back when inflation was raging, they still performed far better than the polls predicted.

And despite their assessment of the economy in 2023, in off year elections Democrats way overperformed in 2023. A lot of that came from opposition to the Supreme Court's Roe v Wade decision. I wonder how that's going to play in the next election when Democrats stress that Trump will appoint more right wing Supreme Court opponents who will lock in the Dobb's decision for possibly decades?

 

Democrats are overperforming in 2023's special elections. Is it a clue for Biden vs. Trump?

An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean -- or the relative liberal or conservative history -- of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-overperforming-2023-special-elections-clue-biden-trump/story?id=101850305

[JonnyF]

16 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

He’s not as popular as he thinks he is.

 

Trump could be half as popular as he thinks he is and still win by a mile. 

 

16 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

He’s busy attacking Hayley online and making thinly veiled references to dirt on her.

 

 

 

Irrelevant. Fact is, GOP voters like him. That's good news for the GOP. Don't attack the messenger - I don't have a dog in this fight, just stating the obvious. 

[Berkshire]

1 minute ago, JonnyF said:

 

Trump could be half as popular as he thinks he is and still win by a mile. 

 

 

Irrelevant. Fact is, GOP voters like him. That's good news for the GOP. Don't attack the messenger - I don't have a dog in this fight, just stating the obvious. 

The whole point of this thread is that Trump's popularity in the GOP alone won't win him the Presidency. 

[JonnyF]

4 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

The whole point of this thread is that Trump's popularity in the GOP alone won't win him the Presidency. 

 

It's an opinion piece by the leftist propaganda outlet, The Guardian in an attempt to downplay Trump's brilliant performance in the primaries. 

 

I suspect they are trying to calm themselves down. It must be very uncomfortable viewing for them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[candide]

28 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

It's an opinion piece by the leftist propaganda outlet, The Guardian in an attempt to downplay Trump's brilliant performance in the primaries. 

 

I suspect they are trying to calm themselves down. It must be very uncomfortable viewing for them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not propaganda, it just makes sense. The core MAGA and conservative will vote Trump. However, It's the moderate and independents who will de facto choose the winner. Trump surely not being "moderate", he may not appeal to them.

[candide]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

More to the point if any of the myriad problems Trump faces force him off the ballot the racists, misogynists and evangelical Christians in his base aren’t going to switch their vote to an Asian woman with dubious ‘Christian’ credentials.

 

 

Not even to make sure Trump gets a pardon?

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

 

Trump could be half as popular as he thinks he is and still win by a mile. 

 

 

Irrelevant. Fact is, GOP voters like him. That's good news for the GOP. Don't attack the messenger - I don't have a dog in this fight, just stating the obvious. 

The real evidence suggests otherwise.

 

And Trump knows it, hence his ranting.

 

Oh and Trump needs a lot more than MAGA votes to  win the election.

 

 

[Walker88]

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

It would appear that Trump is very popular amongst Republican voters.

 

This reduces the chance of Republicans voting for another party because they don't like the GOP candidate.

 

Bad news for lefties and Democrats, I'm not surprised The Guardian is trying to play it down. It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow when he's back in the white house. Looking forward to the meltdown.  

trump is very popular among the QAnon crowd, Incels, Talibangicals who believe humans and dinosaurs lived on Earth together 6 thousand years ago, racists, misogynists, the poorly educated, and the unsuccessful who cannot accept personal responsibility for their own failures in life. He doesn't poll well with sane people and the intelligent.

 

Granted there are a lot of folks who fall into those categories, but it wasn't enough for him to carry the anachronism of the Electoral College in 2020, never enough for him to carry the popular vote, and the guy hasn't become any more likeable or sane or any less blatantly criminal in the last 4 years. He also is clearly losing whatever Person Man Woman Camera TV cognitive ability he might have had. He forgets what State he is in, thinks Nikki Haley was Speaker of the House on 6 January 2021, and that he is running against Obama. He slurs more words that a drunk expat in a Pattaya bar, and never had much control over his verbiage.

 

The economy is better under Biden, and that will impact things as much as trump's pathological criminality come November. When people head to the voting booth, they will have to consider if they really want a guy with ZERO plan for anything except retribution, a large belly full of empty slogans, a guy who is a pathological liar, and who is already a convicted sex offender, a convicted charity fraudster, a convicted bank and insurance fraudster, and by November could be convicted of everything from violation of RICO statutes to theft of classified documents to aiding and abetting an insurrection against the United States. He may even be in jail come November and be donning a face-matching orange jumpsuit. That's hardly a good look for a political candidate.

 

The Dems want to face him, as he is a walking virus to down ballot candidates. I suspect they also want Haley to stay in the race longer, because trump won't be able to control his racist and misogynistic vitriol against a female, and a female of South Asian ancestry. trump will, as always, demonstrate his worst characteristics and three-year old child behavior as he tries to attack her. Sane, rational, and normal people are sick of his schtick.

Edited January 24 by Walker88

[illisdean]

9 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

Oh and Trump needs a lot more than MAGA votes to  win the election.

Bet he doesn't need cue cards to find his seat and show him what to say, but Biden sure does ....lol

 

One thing Trump needs is cue cards with speaking instructions, oh sorry thats Biden who needs cue cards with instructions when and where to sit down, when / what to speak LOL…and this daft fool crashing  polls &job approvals which should be on his cue card and admission documents to a geriatric care facility for cognitively challenged adults. LOL.

 

"YOU take YOUR seat."

 

Joe Biden Notecard Detailing Instructions For President Revealed

 

[illisdean]

11 hours ago, Social Media said:

public scrutiny of Trump's record and character will play a decisive role in shaping the narrative leading up to the presidential race.

you mean like the polls and job approval of the incumbent, the only counter-narrative to that is to call Trump hitler and try to put him in jail. America is a banana republic status now. Well done, but laughable.

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, illisdean said:

Bet he doesn't need cue cards to find his seat and show him what to say, but Biden sure does ....lol

 

You’ve obviously not been keeping up to date with Trump’s latest teleprompter problems.

 

I suggest you do so, it will help you come to terms with Trump’s failing brain becoming a news item, even FIX News are mentioning it,

[Walker88]

Haley says she plans to stay in the race until Super Tuesday in March. I suspect it's payback, as she knows how trump will react.

 

She already "lives rent free in his head", as he did mistake her for Nancy Pelosi.

 

trump will not be able to help himself. He will be his normal racist and misogynist self. He already tried the Birther thing with her. I suspect we're in store for lines like, "I'll bet she never ate a trump steak" (one of his dozens of failed businesses which show his brand isn't worth as much as he thinks).

 

That kind of stuff will play with his Talibangical base and white supremacist losers, but it likely will alienate him even further with moderates and independents.

 

 

[Danderman123]

14 hours ago, Berkshire said:

 Quite a few Haley voters in NH said they would not vote for Trump in the general.  Add to that....

 

[A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.]

 

 

They will vote for Trump in November. They always do.

[Berkshire]

6 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

They will vote for Trump in November. They always do.

You mean like in 2020?  Even if they did, it won't be enough.

[impulse]

21 hours ago, Berkshire said:

Quite a few Haley voters in NH said they would not vote for Trump in the general. 

 

Quite a few Haley voters in NH were Dems who didn't want to waste a perfectly good vote, because the DNC isn't counting primary votes from NH. 

 

That's why 70% of Haley voters were registered as "undeclared", while 70% of Trump voters were registered as Repubs.

 

 

[Danderman123]

26 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

You mean like in 2020?  Even if they did, it won't be enough.

yes. They did vote for Trump in 2020, but simply capturing the Republican vote is not enough to win.

[nauseus]

20 hours ago, illisdean said:

Bet he doesn't need cue cards to find his seat and show him what to say, but Biden sure does ....lol

 

One thing Trump needs is cue cards with speaking instructions, oh sorry thats Biden who needs cue cards with instructions when and where to sit down, when / what to speak LOL…and this daft fool crashing  polls &job approvals which should be on his cue card and admission documents to a geriatric care facility for cognitively challenged adults. LOL.

 

"YOU take YOUR seat."

 

Joe Biden Notecard Detailing Instructions For President Revealed

 

 

Damn! Brandon even got the card the wrong way round! Let's go Joe!

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, Berkshire said:

You mean like in 2020?  Even if they did, it won't be enough.

 

Could be with all the defections.

[Danderman123]

8 hours ago, impulse said:

 

Quite a few Haley voters in NH were Dems who didn't want to waste a perfectly good vote, because the DNC isn't counting primary votes from NH. 

 

That's why 70% of Haley voters were registered as "undeclared", while 70% of Trump voters were registered as Repubs.

 

 

Registered Democrats could not vote in the NH Republican primary.

[impulse]

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Registered Democrats could not vote in the NH Republican primary.

 

No, but voters could register as "undeclared" and vote in either primary.  They just had to choose between a Dem or a Repub ballot.

 

[nauseus]

8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Registered Democrats could not vote in the NH Republican primary.

 

 

But Democrats registered as "undeclared" could. 

[Danderman123]

17 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

No, but voters could register as "undeclared" and vote in either primary.  They just had to choose between a Dem or a Repub ballot.

 

Any Democrat wanting to change their registration had to do so last year:

 

https://www.sos.nh.gov/elections/register-vote/registration-deadlines

 

Your post implies that a Dem could show up on Election Day, declare themselves Independent and vote for Haley.

 

Your post is simply trying to cover for Trump who falsely claimed that Dems could show up and vote for Haley.

[Danderman123]

16 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

 

But Democrats registered as "undeclared" could. 

A voter registered as "undeclared" is no longer a Dem.