Thailand to welcome 36 million foreign tourists in 2024

[webfact]

 

While Kasikorn Research predicts 36 million foreign arrivals, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports expects around 40 million arrivals by 2024, generating significant tourism revenue.

The Center for Research Kasikorn (KResearch) forecasts that Thailand will welcome 36 million foreign tourists in 2024, attributing the projected increase to the country’s improving economy and government tourism support policies.

 

• Thailand is expected to welcome 36 million foreign tourists in 2024, thanks to economic improvement and government tourism support policies.

 

• The increase in foreign arrivals is attributed to visa exemption policies, new flight routes, and higher flight frequencies.

 

• While Kasikorn Research predicts 36 million foreign arrivals, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports expects around 40 million arrivals by 2024, generating significant tourism revenue.

Factors contributing to the rise in foreign arrivals include the visa exemption policy for several countries, the opening of new airline routes, and increased flight frequencies. KResearch’s estimates are slightly lower than those of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, which predicts around 40 million foreign arrivals in 2024, generating approximately $65 billion in tourist revenue.

 

by Aishwarya Gupta

 

Full story: Thailand Business News 2024-03-14

 

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[Lucky Bones]

The Jolly Green Giant is certainly bumping up the numbers with his 100+ touring party each week.🙃🙃

[observer90210]

Tourists can come or not, but by far, they are not the big spenders. Those who spend the most are the people who own property and stay longer then the regular joe-tourist and his 2 week stay in a beach resort.

[ChipButty]

I dont know where they get the figures from, I took a drive down the beach this morning and it's getting quieter not as many cars down there and then we drive around to Amazon it was quiet easy to park, 

[Gottfrid]

They are great with their countless actions to try and pump up the baht based on assumptions. 

[Hellfire]

Statistical gambling

[Gottfrid]

54 minutes ago, observer90210 said:

Tourists can come or not, but by far, they are not the big spenders. Those who spend the most are the people who own property and stay longer then the regular joe-tourist and his 2 week stay in a beach resort.

Nope! That is not at all true, more than seen on the individual vs individual plane.

 

In Thailand you have about 3-4 million foreigners that are living, working or staying long time in the country. most of them are migrant workers from neighboring countries. About 220 000 foreigners are skilled workers, retired or married to a Thai. (As of extra bonus about 42k of them are British) However, we can concentrate on them. Let´s say that every single one of them use and contribute with 1 million baht per year in Thailand. You as well as most people will know that is a very high number. That will give a total of 220 billion baht.

 

The tourism sector is built around so much more, but we will make it easy an estimate that every tourist use an average of 10 000 baht in Thailand, which opposite to the before high number is a very low amount. Only that low number will total 360 billion baht. But as well as I know, you will too, the tourism industry in Thailand is worth between 1,5 - 2 trillion baht based on earlier years.

So, now comes the question. With facts in front of you, will the tourism or the people staying long term in Thailand be most important for the county´s GDP?

[AverageAussie]

1 hour ago, observer90210 said:

Tourists can come or not, but by far, they are not the big spenders. Those who spend the most are the people who own property and stay longer then the regular joe-tourist and his 2 week stay in a beach resort.

 

I'm not sure what gives you that idea. The tourism sector in Thailand contributes about 18% of GDP - compared to a global average of about 7% in the rest of the world.

 

Do you seriously believe that expats in Thailand that own their own condo and living off their super and/or overseas pension contribute more than that? 

[AverageAussie]

@Gottfrid - you beat me by about 1 minute with your response. We've come to the same conclusion though.

[Gottfrid]

3 minutes ago, AverageAussie said:

@Gottfrid - you beat me by about 1 minute with your response. We've come to the same conclusion though.

Ok, I am sorry, did that mean I forced you to delete? 😉 But it´s nice to know that we came to the same conclusion, as I see it there is only one. 

[AverageAussie]

15 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

Ok, I am sorry, did that mean I forced you to delete? 😉 But it´s nice to know that we came to the same conclusion, as I see it there is only one. 

 

Not at all. We used different words to say much the same thing. 

 

But I might add an observation about all the naysayers that query the quality of the data and think they know better because of some anecdote about this morning's traffic on Beach Road. Here we have a bank-owned subsidiary research company with a projection that's only about 10% below the government's for 2024.

 

If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the organisation that has direct access to nation-wide spending patterns the instant that we tap onto the EFTPOS terminal or scan a QR code. For some reason I think they'd have their finger on the pulse.

[Mike Lister]

8 minutes ago, AverageAussie said:

 

Not at all. We used different words to say much the same thing. 

 

But I might add an observation about all the naysayers that query the quality of the data and think they know better because of some anecdote about this morning's traffic on Beach Road. Here we have a bank-owned subsidiary research company with a projection that's only about 10% below the government's for 2024.

 

If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the organisation that has direct access to nation-wide spending patterns the instant that we tap onto the EFTPOS terminal or scan a QR code. For some reason I think they'd have their finger on the pulse.

I agree completely.

[ikke1959]

Sure.. with the current crackdown and all negative news the tourists will flock in

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

the Ministry of Tourism and Sports expects around 40 million arrivals by 2024, generating significant tourism revenue.

has been a while we didn't have the famous TAT tourists estimates/expectations/targets.... their usual BS with numbers 555

[Guderian]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

While Kasikorn Research predicts 36 million foreign arrivals, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports expects around 40 million arrivals

 

I won't believe a word of it until we get the TAT numbers! lol

[Mike Lister]

3 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

has been a while we didn't have the famous TAT tourists estimates/expectations/targets.... their usual BS with numbers 555

"It should be mentioned that the TAT don’t run around counting heads but get their figures from the Thai Ministry of Sports and Tourism which collate the statistics from the Immigration Department reports".

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/survey-do-the-tat-invent-their-statistics

[Jumbo1968]

Publicity stunt, prospective tourist will look at the numbers and think we better book as there will be no flights available with those numbers.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The Center for Research Kasikorn (KResearch) forecasts that Thailand will welcome 36 million foreign tourists in 2024, attributing the projected increase to the country’s improving economy and government tourism support policies.

Thailand should start making some profit then.... without tourism it's dead in the water.

No lessons learnt from Covid though... tourism can be dashed in seconds.

[Mavideol]

4 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

"It should be mentioned that the TAT don’t run around counting heads but get their figures from the Thai Ministry of Sports and Tourism which collate the statistics from the Immigration Department reports".

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/survey-do-the-tat-invent-their-statistics

and that includes the immigrant workers and transit travelers as well.... my point was about their forecast estimates compared to the The Center for Research Kasikorn (KResearch) forecasts or maybe this one doesn't get their figures from the TMSports and Tourism

Edited March 14 by Mavideol

[Mike Lister]

If you doubt the stats, you'll love this, chapter and verse on TAT forecasting:

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44199-022-00041-5

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, Mavideol said:

and that includes the immigrant workers and transit travelers as well

If you say so, I very much doubt it. But if it does, does it really matter because the numbers have always included those people hence the method of accounting hasn't changed.

[spidermike007]

Total and ridiculous nonsense, tourism is down around the world, the economy is in trouble worldwide, Chinese tourism is way down, and there's no way that town it's going to achieve this number. 

 

The second consideration is the quantity over quality only works if you're selling one or two dollar items at a swap meet. 

[Jack Hammer]

3 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

Nope! That is not at all true, more than seen on the individual vs individual plane.

 

In Thailand you have about 3-4 million foreigners that are living, working or staying long time in the country. most of them are migrant workers from neighboring countries. About 220 000 foreigners are skilled workers, retired or married to a Thai. (As of extra bonus about 42k of them are British) However, we can concentrate on them. Let´s say that every single one of them use and contribute with 1 million baht per year in Thailand. You as well as most people will know that is a very high number. That will give a total of 220 billion baht.

 

The tourism sector is built around so much more, but we will make it easy an estimate that every tourist use an average of 10 000 baht in Thailand, which opposite to the before high number is a very low amount. Only that low number will total 360 billion baht. But as well as I know, you will too, the tourism industry in Thailand is worth between 1,5 - 2 trillion baht based on earlier years.

So, now comes the question. With facts in front of you, will the tourism or the people staying long term in Thailand be most important for the county´s GDP?

You quote,” The tourism sector is built around so much more, but we will make it easy an estimate that every tourist use an average of 10 000 baht in Thailand, which opposite to the before high number is a very low amount.” 
Although you don’t quote a time period  a tourist would spend more than 10,000 Baht even on a  seven day holiday.  Why bother coming to Thailand with only ฿10,000 in your pocket

[Cabradelmar]

They just can't wait to finally say Thailand is back to pre 2020 levels. It's almost pathological the attention they give to this 40 million number. 

[Dolf]

Won't be any in Om Koi. Let them flood Samui, Krabi, Phuket and Pattaya.

[Gknrd]

Got to love the internet, and the Thai propaganda machine.

[ChrisY1]

36 million predicted for 2024....and it's only March!

The tourism minister really knows how to get the scam for budgets rolling!

[sambum]

5 hours ago, AverageAussie said:

 

I'm not sure what gives you that idea. The tourism sector in Thailand contributes about 18% of GDP - compared to a global average of about 7% in the rest of the world.

 

Do you seriously believe that expats in Thailand that own their own condo and living off their super and/or overseas pension contribute more than that? 

 

Going back to pre Covid days, the Government was saying that tourism accounted for a lot less of the GDP (From memory I think they were quoting single figures?) Along comes Covid, and the Government suddenly realises that tourism doesn't just benefit the hoteliers and bar owners - there are a myriad of associated businesses that depend on tourism, and now they are quoting "about 18%"

During those Covid days, a lot of  businesses - especially the small ones - were kept going by the expats living here, as tourism nosedived, so don't undervalue the contribution that expats make to the economy - even if we are "Aliens"!!!  

Edited March 14 by sambum

[impulse]

6 hours ago, observer90210 said:

Tourists can come or not, but by far, they are not the big spenders. Those who spend the most are the people who own property and stay longer then the regular joe-tourist and his 2 week stay in a beach resort.

 

On a per boink basis, I'd bet the average 2 week tourist spends more than most of the cheap Charlies that have to scrape up the 800K to stay another year.  Of course, there are exceptions in both camps.  Begpackers who stay in $5 hostels, and expats who are absolutely loaded. 

 

But on the average, I'd bet the tourists on holiday spend more per day, if only because holiday makers aren't as tight when they're enjoying their 2 weeks off.  I know I'm looser with my money when I'm on holiday, and always have been.

 

Edited March 14 by impulse

[arithai12]

7 hours ago, observer90210 said:

Tourists can come or not, but by far, they are not the big spenders. Those who spend the most are the people who own property and stay longer then the regular joe-tourist and his 2 week stay in a beach resort.

What gives you this strange idea? A typical tourist is usually counted as 5k B/day (incl. hotel, meals, attractions, tours, souvenirs and so on). I am a condo-owner and live permanently in Thailand, apart from my initial investment (which went to benefit construction company and the downfall to employees and contractors, anyway not the tourism industry), I live quite well with 20% of that. I don't buy tours and souvenirs, almost never go to attractions, and obviously I don't pay a hotel. Of course, of the 40M foreigners  not all will stay 2 weeks, the majority in fact only a few days (Malaysians across the border, short transits). Let's say for the sake of discussion: 40M for 5 days at 5k/day, that's about 1000 billion baht. You can adjust here and there, but that gives you the idea.

Now long term expats... what, 150,000? The number I often hear. Let's say 100,000 with a condo who spend 1000B day for 300 days/year. That would be 30 billion Baht. Let's double it for the remaining 50,000 who rent and spend more. So less than 100 billion Baht/year.

Compare 1000 with 100... which one is "by far" larger?

Edited March 14 by arithai12