Big layoffs ahead in the automotive workshop sector - hold on to your hats!

[JBChiangRai]

6 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Just wait till the big electricity shut down happens and all those with electric cars can't go anywhere.

 

 

1 minute ago, transam said:

Is that the same for those with solar at home for charging their EV, which in LOS would be a sensible idea..........?   🤔

Perhaps think before you laugh.....🥴

 

Thinking is not his strong suit.  

[thaibeachlovers]

38 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

It will be a very long time before your local petrol station will close in Thailand

EV's in Thailand currently represent 0.08% of all registered cars in Thailand 

IMO the Thai electrical infrastructure will not support a large number of EVs.

[twizzian]

It’s hard to imagine the change to EV haulage trucks, Tractors, Harvesters, Cruise ships etc

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Brakes can last the lifetime of the EV, it rarely uses the brakes, instead turning the kinetic energy of movement back into stored energy in the battery instead of heat as in a legacy vehicle.

 

 

Typical battery life in forecasted to be 18-20 years, eg longer than the life of the vehicle.

My last car was over 30 years old. A pox on car makers that can't make cars that last as long as that.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, twizzian said:

It’s hard to imagine the change to EV haulage trucks, Tractors, Harvesters, Cruise ships etc

Haulage trucks have lots of space for batteries, but tractors do not, and most of the world's food is produced with the use of tractors. Likewise bulldozers and I'll hazard a guess but we will never see a battery powered MBT or armoured car.

[JBChiangRai]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO the Thai electrical infrastructure will not support a large number of EVs.

 

The average electricity requirement of an EV is 3-4kwhrs per day.

 

It's not excessive.

 

Calculated by the average mileage per car in Thailand 10,000km per annum, 27km per day, which is about 4kwhrs.

[eisfeld]

26 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Just wait till the big electricity shut down happens and all those with electric cars can't go anywhere.

 

 

Just wait until you learn that the gasoline pumps require electricity.

[eisfeld]

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

The average electricity requirement of an EV is 3-4kwhrs per day.

 

It's not excessive.

 

Calculated by the average mileage per car in Thailand 10,000km per annum, 27km per day, which is about 4kwhrs.

 

Yea I use more electricity via my aircons than the average EV usage. All these EV doomers are a joke.

[eisfeld]

12 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Haulage trucks have lots of space for batteries, but tractors do not, and most of the world's food is produced with the use of tractors. Likewise bulldozers and I'll hazard a guess but we will never see a battery powered MBT or armoured car.

 

May I introduce you to this electric John Deere tractor? I guess they did find space for the batteries. Surprise surprise it's where all the big diesel engine was.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

 

Just wait until you learn that the gasoline pumps require electricity.

555555555555555

 

Where I lived I could buy petrol from a shop with a 44 gallon drum and a hand operated pump. The truck that delivered the petrol to fill the 44 gallon drums didn't use electricity either.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, eisfeld said:

 

May I introduce you to this electric John Deere tractor? I guess they did find space for the batteries. Surprise surprise it's where all the big diesel engine was.

 

Fair enough, you got me on that one.

[eisfeld]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

555555555555555

 

Where I lived I could buy petrol from a shop with a 44 gallon drum and a hand operated pump. The truck that delivered the petrol to fill the 44 gallon drums didn't use electricity either.

 

The truck filled up at a pump which needs electricity. Those charming hand operated pumps disappeared from my area.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I think EVs are a fad that will soon pass.

I worry that it's a fad that won't pass. There is too much money in it for the 1% to let it go, so we will end up with an inferior product, rather like when VHS wiped out Beta, which is a better tape system.

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

I think your figures are off but not by much.

 

The important thing to recognise is that sales and market share is accelerating.  Thailand is on it's way to mass EV adoption.  In another 11 years your only option for a new car will be EV.

I think mass EV adoption in Thailand is years away, It will be interesting times over the next 3 years as all sales that were of a result of EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 need to build locally the equivalent of between 1.5-3 vehicles per vehicles sold under EV 3.0 and EV 3.5

the problem will be where to sell those vehicles most countries have a local content requirement of 40% that can be achieved in the battery is built in Thailand if the battery is not built in Thailand they are unlikely to hit the 40% target as the majority of parts are built in China

The other issue is Thailand wants to reach have a FTA with Europe where vehicles built in Thailand will be exported to Europe tariff free while at the same time imposing tariffs of between 40-80% on European vehicle exports to Thailand. The Europeans are unlikely to fall for that one

I expect Europe will imposed the same tariffs on vehicles built in Thailand as they are planning for Chinese vehicles as they will see Made in Thailand is just Made in China but using a different route

This article is predicting if Thailand fails on the local content requirement of 40% and fail to secure FTA agreements with Europe 

If the “40% local content” requirement cannot be met, the majority of BEVs produced in Thailand will remain in the domestic market. If there is an oversupply, the entire market will be affected if discount sales become rampant, similar to what happened in China

https://www.thinkchina.sg/made-thailand-chinese-evs-could-fill-auto-market

Remember that all sales under EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 are committed to 

to build locally the equivalent of between 1.5-3 vehicles

If export markets not available they can only sell in Thailand and if there are more vehicles built than sellers prices will only go one way and that's down

 

Edited March 16 by vinny41
add

[rovinman]

13 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I think EVs are a fad that will soon pass.

 

Luddite  !  NO ! the EV industry is here to stay  ! 
There will be a sorting out of Manufacturers, some will die,  some will live, but there will be an Energy Change, as Electricity Authorities find out that Mega-Packs, Solar Panels and Wind Power, will soon replace the Power supply industry  !

Will Thailand be up to the Challenge  ?

BYD seem to have taken a Massive Leap into Thailand, as has TESLA  !

Happy Motoring  !

[Etaoin Shrdlu]

Same thing happened to blacksmiths, tack makers and stablehands early in the last century. 

[JBChiangRai]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I worry that it's a fad that won't pass. There is too much money in it for the 1% to let it go, so we will end up with an inferior product, rather like when VHS wiped out Beta, which is a better tape system.

 

Those that actually own EV's here in Thailand will tell you that they are a superior product.

[vinny41]

36 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Those that actually own EV's here in Thailand will tell you that they are a superior product.

Betamax owners used to say that their product was superior unfortunately software providers choose VHS 

[JBChiangRai]

46 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Those that actually own EV's here in Thailand will tell you that they are a superior product.

 

5 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Betamax owners used to say that their product was superior unfortunately software providers choose VHS 

 

And the year-on-year growth in EV's tells you exactly what consumers are choosing....

[vinny41]

3 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

And the year-on-year growth in EV's tells you exactly what consumers are choosing....

And based on current sales it will take 162 years before every single ice car is replaced with an EV in Thailand

[fulhamster]

The Nissan franchise in Jomtien that I have been using for a few years has sold out to the BYD electric brand, as has the on at Laem Chabang.

Went to the Nissa in Naklua, a tiny place and no staff could or would speak English.

 

So B-Quik it will be.....

[Srikcir]

19 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

Brakes, too?

It's the electric motor of an EV that does most of the work to slow car down, so less wear and tear on brakes. But also the heat caused during EV braking is used to recharge the battery that adds to EV range. 

[Chongalulu]

7 hours ago, Classic Ray said:

In low income/no road salt countries like Thailand, people will hang on to their ICE vehicles as long as they can. Governments cannot afford to implement scrappage schemes and there are plenty of 30/40 year old vehicles still in use.

 

Charging infrastructure coverage will be patchy and maintained poorly like the rest of the infrastructure. 
 

Whilst there are markets like this, car manufacturers and parts suppliers will continue to supply the demand.

 

I cannot see significant change in the next 20 years, especially when all the Chinese EVs start falling to pieces.

 

ICE workshop jobs are safe.

Particularly with the price of fossil fuels especially the demonised diesel being half the price of European countries.

[JBChiangRai]

37 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

And based on current sales it will take 162 years before every single ice car is replaced with an EV in Thailand

 

You need to extrapolate sales growth based on what's been happening.

 

28 minutes ago, fulhamster said:

The Nissan franchise in Jomtien that I have been using for a few years has sold out to the BYD electric brand, as has the on at Laem Chabang.

Went to the Nissa in Naklua, a tiny place and no staff could or would speak English.

 

So B-Quik it will be.....

 

According to Bloomberg, S&P just downgraded Nissan's credit rating to Junk

 

Japan's Automaker Nissan Credit Rating Cut to Junk Status by S&P Global - Bloomberg

[vinny41]

8 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

You need to extrapolate sales growth based on what's been happening.

 

 

According to Bloomberg, S&P just downgraded Nissan's credit rating to Junk

 

Japan's Automaker Nissan Credit Rating Cut to Junk Status by S&P Global - Bloomberg

The EV Adoption Curve

If we look to see where Thailand is at currently its early stage 1

Innovators: These are the first individuals to adopt electric vehicles. They tend to be risk-takers who are both open to trying new ideas and technologies and have the means to do so.

Innovators (2.5% of vehicles): The first stage goes from 0 – 2.5% of vehicles being electric in relation to overall on-the-road vehicles

With over 44 million vehicles registered in Thailand February 2024 including motorcycles

To get to 2.5% of all vehicles on the road , the number of EV's would need to be  1 million 1 hundred thousand

Currently the number of EV's registered in Thailand February including motorcycles represents 0.3% of total vehicles registered in Thailand February 2024 or approx  132,000

https://www.exro.com/industry-insights/early-adopters-of-electric-vehicles-the-ev-adoption-curve

[JBChiangRai]

16 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

The EV Adoption Curve

If we look to see where Thailand is at currently its early stage 1

Innovators: These are the first individuals to adopt electric vehicles. They tend to be risk-takers who are both open to trying new ideas and technologies and have the means to do so.

Innovators (2.5% of vehicles): The first stage goes from 0 – 2.5% of vehicles being electric in relation to overall on-the-road vehicles

With over 44 million vehicles registered in Thailand February 2024 including motorcycles

To get to 2.5% of all vehicles on the road , the number of EV's would need to be  1 million 1 hundred thousand

Currently the number of EV's registered in Thailand February including motorcycles represents 0.3% of total vehicles registered in Thailand February 2024 or approx  132,000

https://www.exro.com/industry-insights/early-adopters-of-electric-vehicles-the-ev-adoption-curve

Finally, something we agree on. We are indeed in the early adoption phase.

[billd766]

10 hours ago, Ralf001 said:

hahahaha, how delusional are you !

Is that the best response that you can come up with?

[Ralf001]

4 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Is that the best response that you can come up with?

Would you prefer I say something insulting ?

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

Finally, something we agree on. We are indeed in the early adoption phase.

Years away from the early adoption phase

current number of ev's including motorcyles approx 132,000

Early Adopters of Electric Vehicles (13.5% of vehicles): The second stage goes from 2.5% - 16% of vehicles on the road being electric.

https://www.exro.com/industry-insights/early-adopters-of-electric-vehicles-the-ev-adoption-curve

13.5% of 44 million equals 5 million 9 hundred and 40,000 thousand vehicles 

Maybe in 10 years time Thailand might be at the early adoption phase

 

[JBChiangRai]

20 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Years away from the early adoption phase

current number of ev's including motorcyles approx 132,000

Early Adopters of Electric Vehicles (13.5% of vehicles): The second stage goes from 2.5% - 16% of vehicles on the road being electric.

https://www.exro.com/industry-insights/early-adopters-of-electric-vehicles-the-ev-adoption-curve

13.5% of 44 million equals 5 million 9 hundred and 40,000 thousand vehicles 

Maybe in 10 years time Thailand might be at the early adoption phase

 

No, forget the percentages, we are way past the innovators stage.

 

Tesla and it’s early buyers were the innovators, we are now well into the early adopter stage with a dozen or more manufacturers, offering EV’s and people all over the world, taking them up.